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通脹將失控,美國要為衰退做好準備

WILL DANIEL
2022-07-28

拉里·薩默斯還表示,他不確定美聯(lián)儲能否控制通脹。

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2018年5月16日,前美國財政部長拉里·薩默斯出席在紐約舉辦的紐約經(jīng)濟俱樂部活動。攝影:MARK KAUZLARICH —— 彭博社/蓋蒂圖片社

前美國財政部長拉里·薩默斯周日警告稱,隨著美聯(lián)儲持續(xù)通過加息抵御通脹,美國“有極高的概率”將在今年陷入經(jīng)濟衰退。

薩默斯早在2020年就極富遠見地警告,美國將面臨通貨膨脹問題。他認為,美聯(lián)儲保證美國經(jīng)濟“軟著陸”的目標,即在不引發(fā)經(jīng)濟衰退的情況下,經(jīng)濟增長放緩且通脹下降,“不太可能”實現(xiàn)。

薩默斯上周日對CNN表示:“我認為經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性非常高。我們以前面臨這種情況時,之后幾乎都發(fā)生了經(jīng)濟衰退。軟著陸是希望戰(zhàn)勝了經(jīng)驗,但我認為我們不太可能看到軟著陸。”

薩默斯還表示,即使發(fā)生經(jīng)濟衰退,無論是哪種形式,他都不確定美聯(lián)儲能否控制通脹。6月,美國通脹率刷新40年新高。

他說道:“在發(fā)生經(jīng)濟衰退之后,我們能否完全控制通脹,目前還很難判斷。美聯(lián)儲對控制通脹的承諾,令我很受鼓舞。但在其他時期,其他央行也曾有過這樣的承諾,然而一旦經(jīng)濟下行,他們并沒有采取足夠的措施保證通脹大幅下降?!?/p>

薩默斯曾擔任克林頓政府的財政部長和奧巴馬總統(tǒng)的首席經(jīng)濟顧問。他還表示,由于通脹高居不下,他預(yù)測“滯脹的風險遠高于”股票市場當前的預(yù)估。

過去幾個月來,已有多位知名經(jīng)濟學(xué)家警告美國經(jīng)濟即將陷入低增長和高通脹的不良經(jīng)濟組合,其中包括劍橋皇后學(xué)院(Queens’ College, Cambridge)院長和安聯(lián)集團(Allianz SE)首席經(jīng)濟顧問穆罕默德·埃里安。

埃里安最近表示,通脹在6月已經(jīng)達到了最高點,但他現(xiàn)在擔心美國即將陷入經(jīng)濟衰退,而且與薩默斯一樣,他也不認為美聯(lián)儲能夠使通脹率回落到其2%的長期目標。

他在7月接受CNBC采訪時稱:“我認為至少對于未來三四個月而言,美國的通貨膨脹已經(jīng)達到了最高峰。問題是,在通脹下降的同時,經(jīng)濟很有可能陷入衰退,這不是好消息?!?/p>

在薩默斯發(fā)布評論之后,美國將在本周公布備受關(guān)注的第二季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值數(shù)據(jù),如果結(jié)果為負增長,將進一步加劇人們對經(jīng)濟衰退的擔憂。

經(jīng)濟衰退的專業(yè)定義是指GDP連續(xù)兩個季度萎縮,而美國第一季度的GDP不出意料地同比萎縮了1.6%。如果第二季度GDP像一些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們預(yù)測的那樣持續(xù)萎縮,美國就陷入了技術(shù)性衰退。

雖然彭博社調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們預(yù)測美國第二季度GDP增長0.5%,但投資銀行卻并沒有這樣的信心。由伊森·哈里斯領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的美國銀行(Bank of America)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家在周五發(fā)布的一份研究報告中表示,他們預(yù)測的數(shù)據(jù)是美國GDP連續(xù)兩個季度下降。

然而,定義經(jīng)濟衰退并不容易。許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和華爾街資深人士認為,只有美國國家經(jīng)濟研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research ,NBER)正式宣布之后,才可以認為美國陷入了真正的經(jīng)濟衰退。國家經(jīng)濟研究局對經(jīng)濟衰退的定義較為寬泛,即“總體經(jīng)濟活動減少,并且持續(xù)數(shù)月”。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

前美國財政部長拉里·薩默斯周日警告稱,隨著美聯(lián)儲持續(xù)通過加息抵御通脹,美國“有極高的概率”將在今年陷入經(jīng)濟衰退。

薩默斯早在2020年就極富遠見地警告,美國將面臨通貨膨脹問題。他認為,美聯(lián)儲保證美國經(jīng)濟“軟著陸”的目標,即在不引發(fā)經(jīng)濟衰退的情況下,經(jīng)濟增長放緩且通脹下降,“不太可能”實現(xiàn)。

薩默斯上周日對CNN表示:“我認為經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性非常高。我們以前面臨這種情況時,之后幾乎都發(fā)生了經(jīng)濟衰退。軟著陸是希望戰(zhàn)勝了經(jīng)驗,但我認為我們不太可能看到軟著陸?!?/p>

薩默斯還表示,即使發(fā)生經(jīng)濟衰退,無論是哪種形式,他都不確定美聯(lián)儲能否控制通脹。6月,美國通脹率刷新40年新高。

他說道:“在發(fā)生經(jīng)濟衰退之后,我們能否完全控制通脹,目前還很難判斷。美聯(lián)儲對控制通脹的承諾,令我很受鼓舞。但在其他時期,其他央行也曾有過這樣的承諾,然而一旦經(jīng)濟下行,他們并沒有采取足夠的措施保證通脹大幅下降。”

薩默斯曾擔任克林頓政府的財政部長和奧巴馬總統(tǒng)的首席經(jīng)濟顧問。他還表示,由于通脹高居不下,他預(yù)測“滯脹的風險遠高于”股票市場當前的預(yù)估。

過去幾個月來,已有多位知名經(jīng)濟學(xué)家警告美國經(jīng)濟即將陷入低增長和高通脹的不良經(jīng)濟組合,其中包括劍橋皇后學(xué)院(Queens’ College, Cambridge)院長和安聯(lián)集團(Allianz SE)首席經(jīng)濟顧問穆罕默德·埃里安。

埃里安最近表示,通脹在6月已經(jīng)達到了最高點,但他現(xiàn)在擔心美國即將陷入經(jīng)濟衰退,而且與薩默斯一樣,他也不認為美聯(lián)儲能夠使通脹率回落到其2%的長期目標。

他在7月接受CNBC采訪時稱:“我認為至少對于未來三四個月而言,美國的通貨膨脹已經(jīng)達到了最高峰。問題是,在通脹下降的同時,經(jīng)濟很有可能陷入衰退,這不是好消息。”

在薩默斯發(fā)布評論之后,美國將在本周公布備受關(guān)注的第二季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值數(shù)據(jù),如果結(jié)果為負增長,將進一步加劇人們對經(jīng)濟衰退的擔憂。

經(jīng)濟衰退的專業(yè)定義是指GDP連續(xù)兩個季度萎縮,而美國第一季度的GDP不出意料地同比萎縮了1.6%。如果第二季度GDP像一些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們預(yù)測的那樣持續(xù)萎縮,美國就陷入了技術(shù)性衰退。

雖然彭博社調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們預(yù)測美國第二季度GDP增長0.5%,但投資銀行卻并沒有這樣的信心。由伊森·哈里斯領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的美國銀行(Bank of America)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家在周五發(fā)布的一份研究報告中表示,他們預(yù)測的數(shù)據(jù)是美國GDP連續(xù)兩個季度下降。

然而,定義經(jīng)濟衰退并不容易。許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和華爾街資深人士認為,只有美國國家經(jīng)濟研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research ,NBER)正式宣布之后,才可以認為美國陷入了真正的經(jīng)濟衰退。國家經(jīng)濟研究局對經(jīng)濟衰退的定義較為寬泛,即“總體經(jīng)濟活動減少,并且持續(xù)數(shù)月”。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned on Sunday that there is a “very high likelihood” that the U.S. will experience a recession this year, as the Federal Reserve continues to battle inflation with interest rate hikes.

Summers, who began presciently warning that inflation would become a problem in the U.S. back in 2020, argued the Federal Reserve’s goal of ensuring a “soft landing” for the American economy— where economic growth slows and inflation comes down, without sparking a recession—is a “very unlikely” outcome.

"I think there is a very high likelihood of recession. When we've been in this kind of situation before a recession has essentially always followed,” Summers told CNN on Sunday. “Soft landings represent a kind of triumph of hope over experience. I think we're very unlikely to see one."

Summers added that, even if a recession occurs, of whatever variety, he isn’t sure if the Fed will be able to control inflation, which hit a fresh four-decade high in June.

“Whether or not we put inflation fully back in the bottle with that recession is very hard to judge at this point,” he said. “I’ve been encouraged by the Fed’s commitment to do that. But other central banks at other times have professed to be committed, but have not done enough once the economy turned down to actually assure that inflation came down substantially.”

Summers, who was Treasury Secretary under President Clinton and a top economic advisor to President Obama, also noted that as a result of inflation’s staying power, he sees “a greater risk of stagflation” than the stock market is currently discounting.

For months now, a slew of top economists including Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, have warned that the U.S. economy is in the midst of the toxic economic combination of low growth and high inflation.

El-Erian argued recently that inflation hit its peak in June, but he now fears that a recession is on its way, and, like Summers, he isn’t convinced that the Fed can bring inflation back down to its 2% target in the long run.

"I think inflation has peaked in the U.S., at least for the next three to four months,” El-Erian told CNBC in July. "The problem is that inflation is going to come down with growth probably going into a recession, and that's not good news."

Summers’ comments come ahead of the closely watched release of second-quarter gross domestic product data this week, where a negative print could raise recession fears even higher.

One technical definition of a recession involves two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, and U.S. GDP unexpectedly shrank by 1.6% from a year ago in the first quarter. If the second quarter also shows a contraction—as some economists expect—it would put the U.S. in a technical recession.

And although economists polled by Bloomberg are expecting a 0.5% rise in GDP in the second quarter, investment banks aren’t so sure. Bank of America economists, led by Ethan Harris, said in a Friday research note that they are predicting that data to show a second consecutive quarter of declining GDP this week.

However, defining a recession isn’t always so easy. And many economists and Wall Street veterans argue a true recession won’t be here until the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares it so. NBER defines a recession in a more general way as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months."

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