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英鎊持續(xù)下跌,特拉斯可能面臨危機(jī)

英國(guó)首相利茲·特拉斯正在面臨巨大壓力。

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英國(guó)首相利茲·特拉斯,2022年9月9日攝于倫敦。圖片來源:WIKTOR SZYMANOWICZ—ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES

新的一周來臨,英國(guó)政府公布財(cái)政計(jì)劃后,市場(chǎng)拋售仍在持續(xù),首相利茲·特拉斯剛剛上臺(tái)幾天的政府面臨巨大壓力。

9月23日,英國(guó)財(cái)政大臣夸西·克沃滕為刺激經(jīng)濟(jì),孤注一擲地推出了減稅和額外借款計(jì)劃,投資者反應(yīng)激烈且極其負(fù)面,英國(guó)資產(chǎn)暴跌。上周末,夸西承諾進(jìn)一步減稅,似乎對(duì)市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)毫不在意。

當(dāng)9月26日亞洲市場(chǎng)開市時(shí),下跌幾乎沒有減弱勢(shì)頭,深陷困境的英鎊兌美元匯率跌至37年來新低。如果本周交易員繼續(xù)實(shí)時(shí)反饋市場(chǎng)情緒,跌勢(shì)就將繼續(xù)加深,拋售風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能不僅導(dǎo)致政府短期內(nèi)陷入尷尬,而是進(jìn)入更嚴(yán)重的危機(jī),政策要迅速回應(yīng)。

9月25日晚的英鎊跌幅高達(dá)0.9%,跌至1.08美元以下,所以9月26日早上8點(diǎn)的英國(guó)國(guó)債市場(chǎng)也值得關(guān)注。

“由于財(cái)政領(lǐng)域普遍的非公開支出無法匹配貨幣政策從而抵消通脹沖動(dòng),英鎊可能進(jìn)一步走軟。”包括卡馬克夏·特里維德在內(nèi)等高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)的分析師在9月23日發(fā)給客戶的一份報(bào)告中寫道。

9月23日差點(diǎn)成為自2016年英國(guó)脫歐(Brexit)投票后創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄崩盤以來英鎊兌美元匯率最慘的一天,由此能夠看出其在歷史上的嚴(yán)重程度。收盤時(shí)跌幅達(dá)3.6%,為過去50年里第七大跌幅。與此同時(shí),由于投資者懲罰財(cái)政大臣只顧追求增長(zhǎng)還毫無悔意,政府債券收益率飆升,某些久期的債券收益率更是創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄。

如果當(dāng)前情況繼續(xù)保持,由于英國(guó)智庫Resolution Foundation預(yù)計(jì)未來五年的計(jì)劃需要額外舉債4,000億英鎊(約合4,340億美元),收益率走高就將導(dǎo)致借款成本大大增加。與此同時(shí),因?yàn)橥浡示痈卟幌潞陀?guó)央行(Bank of England)加息,利息賬單已經(jīng)不斷膨脹。

上周的市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)可能造成巨大影響。《每日電訊報(bào)》(The Telegraph)9月24日稱,如果英鎊降至與美元等值,特拉斯的減稅政策就將面臨保守黨后座議員的反對(duì)。與此同時(shí),一些市場(chǎng)人士已經(jīng)呼吁英國(guó)央行緊急采取行動(dòng)遏制英鎊貶值趨勢(shì),畢竟當(dāng)代英鎊如此走低前所未有,可能加劇恐慌。

英國(guó)央行的前官員亞當(dāng)·波森在推特(Twitter)上稱,預(yù)計(jì)英國(guó)央行的行長(zhǎng)安德魯·貝利將“在周中之前公開表示,如果英鎊下跌,利率就會(huì)上升。”他還提到財(cái)政部有可能在9月25日開市前干預(yù)英鎊,但其他人指出,英國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備比起日本等國(guó)少很多,而其他國(guó)家采取了相同的政策。

如果周末可以讓市場(chǎng)稍微平息,而且從9月26日開始回調(diào),就能夠?yàn)樘乩购涂宋蛛鵂?zhēng)取一些奪回議程的時(shí)間。今年10月初保守黨會(huì)議的重要性有所提升,原本的會(huì)議主題是新政府上臺(tái),如今可能變成政府恢復(fù)受損信譽(yù)的機(jī)會(huì)。

但在市場(chǎng)上,很多人對(duì)前景非常不樂觀。上周動(dòng)蕩后出現(xiàn)了更多的預(yù)測(cè),連美國(guó)財(cái)政部的前部長(zhǎng)勞倫斯·薩默斯都預(yù)測(cè)稱英鎊將跌破與美元平價(jià)。彭博(Bloomberg)的期權(quán)定價(jià)模型顯示,未來六個(gè)月英鎊兌美元降到1的概率為四分之一,比9月22日的14%要高。

其他人則比較擔(dān)心將來的英國(guó)債務(wù)。令人不安的是,以前央行通過量化寬松政策提供支持是英國(guó)國(guó)債的救星,現(xiàn)在卻因?yàn)楣賳T試圖控制失控的價(jià)格飆升而起反作用。

“英國(guó)國(guó)債市場(chǎng)正在逐漸調(diào)整,以適應(yīng)財(cái)政形勢(shì)劇烈變化和巨大的供需前景?!?9月23日匯豐銀行(HSBC)的分析師在一份報(bào)告里寫道?!按笠?guī)模借貸回歸之際,英國(guó)央行也從債券買家轉(zhuǎn)為賣家,更重要的是,其他投資者越發(fā)擔(dān)心英國(guó)財(cái)政的信譽(yù)。”

在克沃滕于9月23日發(fā)表演講后,英鎊下跌,10年期債券收益率上升30多個(gè)基點(diǎn)達(dá)到3.83%,五年期債券利率創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地上升51個(gè)基點(diǎn)。

與此同時(shí),交易員預(yù)計(jì)在今年11月3日的英國(guó)央行會(huì)議上,將繼續(xù)加息120個(gè)基點(diǎn),加息幅度為9月22日將利率提升至2.25%的幅度兩倍還多。交易商間經(jīng)紀(jì)公司Tradition Ltd.的國(guó)債經(jīng)紀(jì)和代理部門負(fù)責(zé)人特雷沃爾·皮尤表示,交易員也在考慮會(huì)議期間加息的可能性。

英鎊大貶后,新任財(cái)政大臣否認(rèn)出現(xiàn)投資者恐慌,還告訴英國(guó)的《金融時(shí)報(bào)》(Financial Times),“市場(chǎng)總在波動(dòng)——保持冷靜且關(guān)注長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)略非常重要?!?/p>

目前,市場(chǎng)對(duì)長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)略的看法似乎并不明確。

“除非切實(shí)采取措施解決財(cái)政問題,或者經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)令人驚喜的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù),否則投資者可能將繼續(xù)避開英鎊?!焙商m國(guó)際集團(tuán)(ING)的安托萬·布韋和克里斯·特納在9月23日寫道?!拔覀冋J(rèn)為美元反彈也存在超速上漲現(xiàn)象,所以市場(chǎng)可能低估了英鎊與美元平價(jià)的幾率。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:夏林

新的一周來臨,英國(guó)政府公布財(cái)政計(jì)劃后,市場(chǎng)拋售仍在持續(xù),首相利茲·特拉斯剛剛上臺(tái)幾天的政府面臨巨大壓力。

9月23日,英國(guó)財(cái)政大臣夸西·克沃滕為刺激經(jīng)濟(jì),孤注一擲地推出了減稅和額外借款計(jì)劃,投資者反應(yīng)激烈且極其負(fù)面,英國(guó)資產(chǎn)暴跌。上周末,夸西承諾進(jìn)一步減稅,似乎對(duì)市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)毫不在意。

當(dāng)9月26日亞洲市場(chǎng)開市時(shí),下跌幾乎沒有減弱勢(shì)頭,深陷困境的英鎊兌美元匯率跌至37年來新低。如果本周交易員繼續(xù)實(shí)時(shí)反饋市場(chǎng)情緒,跌勢(shì)就將繼續(xù)加深,拋售風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能不僅導(dǎo)致政府短期內(nèi)陷入尷尬,而是進(jìn)入更嚴(yán)重的危機(jī),政策要迅速回應(yīng)。

9月25日晚的英鎊跌幅高達(dá)0.9%,跌至1.08美元以下,所以9月26日早上8點(diǎn)的英國(guó)國(guó)債市場(chǎng)也值得關(guān)注。

“由于財(cái)政領(lǐng)域普遍的非公開支出無法匹配貨幣政策從而抵消通脹沖動(dòng),英鎊可能進(jìn)一步走軟?!卑R克夏·特里維德在內(nèi)等高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)的分析師在9月23日發(fā)給客戶的一份報(bào)告中寫道。

9月23日差點(diǎn)成為自2016年英國(guó)脫歐(Brexit)投票后創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄崩盤以來英鎊兌美元匯率最慘的一天,由此能夠看出其在歷史上的嚴(yán)重程度。收盤時(shí)跌幅達(dá)3.6%,為過去50年里第七大跌幅。與此同時(shí),由于投資者懲罰財(cái)政大臣只顧追求增長(zhǎng)還毫無悔意,政府債券收益率飆升,某些久期的債券收益率更是創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄。

如果當(dāng)前情況繼續(xù)保持,由于英國(guó)智庫Resolution Foundation預(yù)計(jì)未來五年的計(jì)劃需要額外舉債4,000億英鎊(約合4,340億美元),收益率走高就將導(dǎo)致借款成本大大增加。與此同時(shí),因?yàn)橥浡示痈卟幌潞陀?guó)央行(Bank of England)加息,利息賬單已經(jīng)不斷膨脹。

上周的市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)可能造成巨大影響?!睹咳针娪崍?bào)》(The Telegraph)9月24日稱,如果英鎊降至與美元等值,特拉斯的減稅政策就將面臨保守黨后座議員的反對(duì)。與此同時(shí),一些市場(chǎng)人士已經(jīng)呼吁英國(guó)央行緊急采取行動(dòng)遏制英鎊貶值趨勢(shì),畢竟當(dāng)代英鎊如此走低前所未有,可能加劇恐慌。

英國(guó)央行的前官員亞當(dāng)·波森在推特(Twitter)上稱,預(yù)計(jì)英國(guó)央行的行長(zhǎng)安德魯·貝利將“在周中之前公開表示,如果英鎊下跌,利率就會(huì)上升?!彼€提到財(cái)政部有可能在9月25日開市前干預(yù)英鎊,但其他人指出,英國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備比起日本等國(guó)少很多,而其他國(guó)家采取了相同的政策。

如果周末可以讓市場(chǎng)稍微平息,而且從9月26日開始回調(diào),就能夠?yàn)樘乩购涂宋蛛鵂?zhēng)取一些奪回議程的時(shí)間。今年10月初保守黨會(huì)議的重要性有所提升,原本的會(huì)議主題是新政府上臺(tái),如今可能變成政府恢復(fù)受損信譽(yù)的機(jī)會(huì)。

但在市場(chǎng)上,很多人對(duì)前景非常不樂觀。上周動(dòng)蕩后出現(xiàn)了更多的預(yù)測(cè),連美國(guó)財(cái)政部的前部長(zhǎng)勞倫斯·薩默斯都預(yù)測(cè)稱英鎊將跌破與美元平價(jià)。彭博(Bloomberg)的期權(quán)定價(jià)模型顯示,未來六個(gè)月英鎊兌美元降到1的概率為四分之一,比9月22日的14%要高。

其他人則比較擔(dān)心將來的英國(guó)債務(wù)。令人不安的是,以前央行通過量化寬松政策提供支持是英國(guó)國(guó)債的救星,現(xiàn)在卻因?yàn)楣賳T試圖控制失控的價(jià)格飆升而起反作用。

“英國(guó)國(guó)債市場(chǎng)正在逐漸調(diào)整,以適應(yīng)財(cái)政形勢(shì)劇烈變化和巨大的供需前景。” 9月23日匯豐銀行(HSBC)的分析師在一份報(bào)告里寫道。“大規(guī)模借貸回歸之際,英國(guó)央行也從債券買家轉(zhuǎn)為賣家,更重要的是,其他投資者越發(fā)擔(dān)心英國(guó)財(cái)政的信譽(yù)?!?/p>

在克沃滕于9月23日發(fā)表演講后,英鎊下跌,10年期債券收益率上升30多個(gè)基點(diǎn)達(dá)到3.83%,五年期債券利率創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地上升51個(gè)基點(diǎn)。

與此同時(shí),交易員預(yù)計(jì)在今年11月3日的英國(guó)央行會(huì)議上,將繼續(xù)加息120個(gè)基點(diǎn),加息幅度為9月22日將利率提升至2.25%的幅度兩倍還多。交易商間經(jīng)紀(jì)公司Tradition Ltd.的國(guó)債經(jīng)紀(jì)和代理部門負(fù)責(zé)人特雷沃爾·皮尤表示,交易員也在考慮會(huì)議期間加息的可能性。

英鎊大貶后,新任財(cái)政大臣否認(rèn)出現(xiàn)投資者恐慌,還告訴英國(guó)的《金融時(shí)報(bào)》(Financial Times),“市場(chǎng)總在波動(dòng)——保持冷靜且關(guān)注長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)略非常重要?!?/p>

目前,市場(chǎng)對(duì)長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)略的看法似乎并不明確。

“除非切實(shí)采取措施解決財(cái)政問題,或者經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)令人驚喜的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù),否則投資者可能將繼續(xù)避開英鎊。”荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)(ING)的安托萬·布韋和克里斯·特納在9月23日寫道。“我們認(rèn)為美元反彈也存在超速上漲現(xiàn)象,所以市場(chǎng)可能低估了英鎊與美元平價(jià)的幾率?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:夏林

The market selloff that followed the release of the UK government’s fiscal plan extended into a new week, heaping the pressure on Liz Truss’s days-old administration.

Kwasi Kwarteng’s all-out gamble on tax cuts and extra borrowing to stimulate the economy sparked a ferocious and damaging assessment from investors on September 23 that sent UK assets tumbling. Seemingly unperturbed by the response, the Chancellor this weekend pledged even more tax cuts.

When markets reopened in Asia on September 26, the slump showed few signs of abating, as the beleaguered pound dropped to a fresh 37-year low against the dollar. If the rout continues to deepen as traders continue to deliver their real-time verdict this week, the selloff risks moving beyond a short-term embarrassment for the government into a more profound crisis that could necessitate a rapid policy response.

With the pound sliding as much as 0.9% to below $1.08 on September 25 night, the opening of the gilt market at 8 a.m. on September 26 will also be one to watch.

“With broad unfunded spending on the fiscal side unmatched by monetary policy to offset the inflationary impulse, the currency is likely to weaken further,” Goldman Sachs analysts including Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a note to clients on September 23.

In a sign of the historic severity of September 23’s selloff, the pound at one stage was set for its worse day against the dollar since the record crash that followed the Brexit vote in 2016. In the end, the 3.6% slump was the seventh-worst in the past 50 years. At the same time, government bond yields soared, by a record amount on some maturities, as investors punished the Chancellor for his unapologetic dash for growth.

If maintained, the move in yields will dramatically inflate the cost of the extra £400 billion ($434 billion) of borrowing the Resolution Foundation estimate is needed over the next five years to fund the plan, adding to an interest bill already bulging thanks to sky-high inflation and Bank of England rate increases.

The market moves this week could have huge implications. The Telegraph reported on September 24 that Truss will face a rebellion from Tory backbenchers against her tax cuts if the pound falls to parity with the dollar. Meanwhile, some in the markets are already calling for emergency BOE action to stem the tide, an unprecedented action in modern times that would risk adding to the sense of panic.

Former BOE official Adam Posen said on Twitter that he expects Andrew Bailey to “say publicly by mid-week that if GBP down, rates up.” He also mentioned the possibility of Treasury intervention to prop up the pound on September 25 before the open, but others pointed out that Britain’s foreign currency reserves are a fraction of those of the likes of Japan, which pursued the same policy last week.

If the weekend break has brought some calm, and moves start to retrace on September 26, that will buy Truss and Kwarteng time to try to seize back the agenda. That would increase the importance of the Tory Party Conference early next month, which now risks turning from a coronation of the new government into a chance to restore already-battered credibility.

But the outlook from many in the market is far from rosy. The turmoil last week led to more predictions, including from former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, that the pound will decline below parity with the dollar. Bloomberg’s options pricing model now shows a one-in-four chance the pound will reach $1 in the next six months, up from 14% on September 22.

Others are expressing concerns over the future of UK debt. Worryingly, the central bank support through quantitative easing, previously a savior of gilts, has now been thrown into reverse by officials looking to keep a lid of runaway price gains.

“The gilt market is adjusting to a seismic shift in the fiscal landscape and a mammoth supply-demand outlook,” HSBC analysts wrote in a note on September 23. “The return of such large-scale borrowing of this nature comes at the same time as the BOE is also turning from a buyer to a seller of bonds, and — more importantly — other investors are increasingly concerned about the UK’s fiscal credibility.”

After Kwarteng’s speech on September 23, the pound slumped, yields on 10-year debt rose more than 30 basis points to 3.83%, and the rate of five-year notes jumped by a record 51 basis points.

Meanwhile traders fully priced 120 basis points of additional rate hikes from the BOE by its Nov. 3 meeting — more than double the size of the move announced on September 23 that took rates to 2.25%. Traders are also now pricing in the possibility of an intra-meeting hike, according to Trevor Pugh, head of gilt inter-dealer broker and agency desks at Tradition Ltd.

Following the event, the new Chancellor denied investors were panicking, telling the Financial Times that “markets move all the time — it’s very important to keep calm and focus on the longer-term strategy.”

For now, the market’s view of that strategy appears dim.

“Unless something can be done to address these fiscal concerns, or the economy shows some surprisingly strong growth data, it looks like investors will continue to shun sterling,” ING’s Antoine Bouvet and Chris Turner wrote on September 23. “Given our bias for the dollar rally going into over-drive as well, we think the market may be underpricing the chances of parity.”

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