作為市值最大的加密貨幣,比特幣的價(jià)格依然徘徊在1.9萬(wàn)美元附近,然而,比特幣的挖礦難度剛剛又躍升了13.55%,這是自2021年5月21.53%以來(lái)最高的增幅。
這一激增源于“多重因素的合力”,比特幣挖礦公司Braiins的研究與挖礦洞見(jiàn)業(yè)務(wù)總監(jiān)丹尼爾·弗拉姆金說(shuō)。
其一,礦主們剛開始收到交付的新礦機(jī)。
弗拉姆金告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“大型基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的擴(kuò)建需要6-18個(gè)月的時(shí)間,目前正在穩(wěn)步推進(jìn),新設(shè)施可接入更多的新一代硬件?!逼渲邪?40 TH/s的 Antminer S19 XPs,該設(shè)備“終于得到了大規(guī)模的交付和部署。”
該領(lǐng)域的其他人士也同意這一看法,包括比特幣挖礦公司比特礦業(yè)(BIT Mining Limited)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家楊有為(音)。他指出,礦機(jī)交付是“主要原因”。
楊有為說(shuō):“很多人都知道,比特幣礦主自2021年5月中國(guó)頒布禁令之后,一直努力尋找新家。一些礦主的行動(dòng)更快,但隨著很多礦主最終安頓下來(lái),該行業(yè)的大部分算力到最近才得以恢復(fù)。新一代礦機(jī)實(shí)際上才是主要因素,在去年年底,很多礦主通過(guò)遠(yuǎn)期合約購(gòu)買了礦機(jī),如今正處于集中交付期?!?/p>
第二,先進(jìn)礦機(jī)近幾個(gè)月的價(jià)格亦隨著比特幣價(jià)格的下跌而下跌。
弗拉姆金說(shuō),對(duì)于以“2021年和2022年初的高價(jià)”購(gòu)買硬件的礦主來(lái)說(shuō),生產(chǎn)的邊際成本將低于比特幣價(jià)格,但總生產(chǎn)成本將接近或甚至高于比特幣價(jià)格。
停機(jī)時(shí)間的減少也是一個(gè)因素。弗拉姆金說(shuō):“位于得克薩斯州這類地區(qū)的礦主在炎熱的下午會(huì)關(guān)停設(shè)施,這類現(xiàn)象在過(guò)去幾個(gè)月中一直頻繁上演?!比缃?,夏季已經(jīng)結(jié)束,“停機(jī)時(shí)間就會(huì)大幅減少”。
總的來(lái)說(shuō),挖礦難度的加大會(huì)給大量礦主造成傷害,而且這些礦主在熊市期間一直在艱難地維持著利潤(rùn)率。
弗拉姆金對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō):“只要單位比特幣的挖礦邊際成本低于比特幣價(jià)格,礦主們就不會(huì)歇業(yè),然而,如果計(jì)算硬件成本的話,他們基本上沒(méi)有多少錢可賺。很多礦主如今都處于這一局面,利潤(rùn)率的下滑讓他們感到異常痛苦,因?yàn)楫?dāng)前的利潤(rùn)很難抵消近期的硬件購(gòu)買成本。不過(guò),利潤(rùn)還沒(méi)有低到迫使其徹底關(guān)停的地步?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
作為市值最大的加密貨幣,比特幣的價(jià)格依然徘徊在1.9萬(wàn)美元附近,然而,比特幣的挖礦難度剛剛又躍升了13.55%,這是自2021年5月21.53%以來(lái)最高的增幅。
這一激增源于“多重因素的合力”,比特幣挖礦公司Braiins的研究與挖礦洞見(jiàn)業(yè)務(wù)總監(jiān)丹尼爾·弗拉姆金說(shuō)。
其一,礦主們剛開始收到交付的新礦機(jī)。
弗拉姆金告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“大型基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的擴(kuò)建需要6-18個(gè)月的時(shí)間,目前正在穩(wěn)步推進(jìn),新設(shè)施可接入更多的新一代硬件?!逼渲邪?40 TH/s的 Antminer S19 XPs,該設(shè)備“終于得到了大規(guī)模的交付和部署。”
該領(lǐng)域的其他人士也同意這一看法,包括比特幣挖礦公司比特礦業(yè)(BIT Mining Limited)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家楊有為(音)。他指出,礦機(jī)交付是“主要原因”。
楊有為說(shuō):“很多人都知道,比特幣礦主自2021年5月中國(guó)頒布禁令之后,一直努力尋找新家。一些礦主的行動(dòng)更快,但隨著很多礦主最終安頓下來(lái),該行業(yè)的大部分算力到最近才得以恢復(fù)。新一代礦機(jī)實(shí)際上才是主要因素,在去年年底,很多礦主通過(guò)遠(yuǎn)期合約購(gòu)買了礦機(jī),如今正處于集中交付期?!?/p>
第二,先進(jìn)礦機(jī)近幾個(gè)月的價(jià)格亦隨著比特幣價(jià)格的下跌而下跌。
弗拉姆金說(shuō),對(duì)于以“2021年和2022年初的高價(jià)”購(gòu)買硬件的礦主來(lái)說(shuō),生產(chǎn)的邊際成本將低于比特幣價(jià)格,但總生產(chǎn)成本將接近或甚至高于比特幣價(jià)格。
停機(jī)時(shí)間的減少也是一個(gè)因素。弗拉姆金說(shuō):“位于得克薩斯州這類地區(qū)的礦主在炎熱的下午會(huì)關(guān)停設(shè)施,這類現(xiàn)象在過(guò)去幾個(gè)月中一直頻繁上演?!比缃?,夏季已經(jīng)結(jié)束,“停機(jī)時(shí)間就會(huì)大幅減少”。
總的來(lái)說(shuō),挖礦難度的加大會(huì)給大量礦主造成傷害,而且這些礦主在熊市期間一直在艱難地維持著利潤(rùn)率。
弗拉姆金對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō):“只要單位比特幣的挖礦邊際成本低于比特幣價(jià)格,礦主們就不會(huì)歇業(yè),然而,如果計(jì)算硬件成本的話,他們基本上沒(méi)有多少錢可賺。很多礦主如今都處于這一局面,利潤(rùn)率的下滑讓他們感到異常痛苦,因?yàn)楫?dāng)前的利潤(rùn)很難抵消近期的硬件購(gòu)買成本。不過(guò),利潤(rùn)還沒(méi)有低到迫使其徹底關(guān)停的地步。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
The price of Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, remains stuck at around $19,000—but Bitcoin mining difficulty just jumped 13.55%, the most since a 21.53% increase in May 2021.
This surge is due to “a combination of several factors,” said Daniel Frumkin, director of research and mining insights at Braiins, a Bitcoin mining company.
For one, there’s the latest delivery of new rigs reaching miners.
“Large infrastructure build-outs, which are six to 18 months in the making, are steadily being completed, enabling more new-generation hardware to be plugged in,” Frumkin tells Fortune. This includes the 140 terahashes per second (TH/s) Antminer S19 XPs, which are “finally being delivered and deployed at scale.”
Others in the space agree, including Youwei Yang, chief economist at Bitcoin mining company BIT Mining Limited (BTCM), who notes that the mining rig deliveries are the “primary reason.”
“As many people know, Bitcoin miners have been trying to find their new homes after the China ban in May 2021. Some are quicker than others, but the majority of capacity has not been reached until recently, as many have finally settled,” Yang says. “The new-generation mining rigs are actually a major factor, as [late] last year, many purchased mining rigs via forward contracts, and now is the concentrated delivery time.”
Secondly, the price of advanced mining rigs has declined alongside the price of Bitcoin in recent months.
Miners who purchased hardware at “elevated prices in 2021 and early 2022” have a “marginal cost of production below the Bitcoin price, but a total cost of production close to or even above the Bitcoin price,” Frumkin said.
Less downtime also is a contributing factor. “Miners in places like Texas shutting down during hot afternoons was a frequent occurrence for the past few months,” Frumkin said, and there’s “a lot less downtime” for miners now that summer is over.
Overall, the heightened mining difficulty is going to hurt a lot of miners who are struggling to retain a profit margin during the bear market.
“Miners will stay online as long as their marginal cost to mine one Bitcoin is below the Bitcoin price, but they aren’t truly profitable when factoring in the cost of their hardware,” Frumkin tells Fortune. “Many miners right now are in this situation where the depressed profit margins are extremely painful, making it unlikely to break even on recent hardware purchases. But they haven’t yet hit levels that would force them to shut off completely.”