美國消費(fèi)者要想最終控制通脹,必須面對經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。
至少摩根大通(JPMorgan)總裁兼首席運(yùn)營官丹尼爾·平托在周一這樣表示。
平托對美國消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)表示:“我認(rèn)為控制通脹非常重要?!彼J(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)該繼續(xù)加息,即使這樣做可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩?!叭绻酉?dǎo)致較為嚴(yán)重的長期衰退,這是我們必須付出的代價”。
今年,為了控制通脹,美聯(lián)儲官員已經(jīng)五次加息,但到目前為止美聯(lián)儲的努力并沒有取得經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們期待的效果。
9月,美國通貨膨脹最常用的指標(biāo)消費(fèi)物價指數(shù)(CPI)較一年前上漲了8.2%。雖然這比6月9.1%的40年最高水平低了近1個百分點(diǎn),但依舊遠(yuǎn)高于美聯(lián)儲2%的目標(biāo)。
不含波動性更大的食品與能源價格的核心通脹率,上個月剛剛打破40年最高水平,使美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入惡性衰退的說法變得更有說服力。
平托的言論屬于鷹派,前美國財政部長拉里·薩默斯和劍橋大學(xué)(Cambridge)皇后學(xué)院(Queens’ College)院長穆罕默德·埃里安都屬于這一陣營。
但并非所有知名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖都認(rèn)為通脹會居高不下,或者美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)該繼續(xù)加息。從億萬富翁投資者巴里·斯特恩利希特到霍華德大學(xué)(Howard University)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授威廉姆斯·斯普里格斯,有越來越多批評者認(rèn)為通脹已經(jīng)下降,美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)該暫停加息,以免引發(fā)嚴(yán)重衰退。
周一,摩根大通首席運(yùn)營官平托批評美聯(lián)儲的新鴿派觀察者,稱他從小在阿根廷長大的經(jīng)歷證明,抑制通脹應(yīng)該是美聯(lián)儲的首要任務(wù)。
阿根廷經(jīng)歷了全世界史上最嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹。例如,9月,阿根廷消費(fèi)物價同比上漲了83%。1944年至2015年,阿根廷的平均年度通脹率為204%。
平托回憶了自己在阿根廷的童年。他說由于通貨膨脹,阿根廷比索的價值快速變化,工人的工資如果不兌換成美元,可能在一天內(nèi)貶值高達(dá)20%。
平托表示,在他成長過程中,面對通貨膨脹,超市不得不招聘“大批人員”每小時為產(chǎn)品更換價簽。
他說:“每天結(jié)束營業(yè)時,他們不得不取走所有價簽,第二天重新標(biāo)價?!?/p>
在見證過惡性通脹的毀滅性影響之后,平托認(rèn)為,央行在應(yīng)對不斷上漲的消費(fèi)物價時應(yīng)該采取激進(jìn)措施,否則美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能像阿根廷一樣陷入惡性通脹,至少會像上世紀(jì)70年代和80年代的美國一樣。
平托表示:“因此聽到有人說‘美聯(lián)儲過于強(qiáng)硬’,我不敢茍同?!?/p>
他表示,美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)該加息到5%的最高點(diǎn),比當(dāng)前水平高近2個百分點(diǎn)。他說如果美聯(lián)儲繼續(xù)加息,會增加失業(yè),但最終會使通脹得到控制。
但他現(xiàn)在對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)更有信心,認(rèn)為美國能應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的痛苦。他表示,美國家庭和企業(yè)的財務(wù)狀況依舊良好,銀行系統(tǒng)的杠桿率較低,而且抵押貸款標(biāo)準(zhǔn)遠(yuǎn)高于2008年。
平托表示:“以前導(dǎo)致問題的情況現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)有明顯好轉(zhuǎn)。盡管如此,還是希望不會有新情況發(fā)生?!?/p>
然而,平托承認(rèn),一個潛在的“巨大黑天鵝”是俄烏沖突等地緣政治事件對全世界的影響。“黑天鵝”是指具有嚴(yán)重經(jīng)濟(jì)后果的不可預(yù)測事件。
最后,他表示,隨著加息影響企業(yè)利潤,預(yù)計美股市場會繼續(xù)下跌。
他說道:“我并不認(rèn)為市場已經(jīng)探底。關(guān)于明年的企業(yè)營收,所有預(yù)測可能依舊過于樂觀;包括標(biāo)普在內(nèi)多個股票市場的市盈率倍率略高?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
美國消費(fèi)者要想最終控制通脹,必須面對經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。
至少摩根大通(JPMorgan)總裁兼首席運(yùn)營官丹尼爾·平托在周一這樣表示。
平托對美國消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)表示:“我認(rèn)為控制通脹非常重要?!彼J(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)該繼續(xù)加息,即使這樣做可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩。“如果加息會導(dǎo)致較為嚴(yán)重的長期衰退,這是我們必須付出的代價”。
今年,為了控制通脹,美聯(lián)儲官員已經(jīng)五次加息,但到目前為止美聯(lián)儲的努力并沒有取得經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們期待的效果。
9月,美國通貨膨脹最常用的指標(biāo)消費(fèi)物價指數(shù)(CPI)較一年前上漲了8.2%。雖然這比6月9.1%的40年最高水平低了近1個百分點(diǎn),但依舊遠(yuǎn)高于美聯(lián)儲2%的目標(biāo)。
不含波動性更大的食品與能源價格的核心通脹率,上個月剛剛打破40年最高水平,使美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入惡性衰退的說法變得更有說服力。
平托的言論屬于鷹派,前美國財政部長拉里·薩默斯和劍橋大學(xué)(Cambridge)皇后學(xué)院(Queens’ College)院長穆罕默德·埃里安都屬于這一陣營。
但并非所有知名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖都認(rèn)為通脹會居高不下,或者美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)該繼續(xù)加息。從億萬富翁投資者巴里·斯特恩利希特到霍華德大學(xué)(Howard University)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授威廉姆斯·斯普里格斯,有越來越多批評者認(rèn)為通脹已經(jīng)下降,美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)該暫停加息,以免引發(fā)嚴(yán)重衰退。
周一,摩根大通首席運(yùn)營官平托批評美聯(lián)儲的新鴿派觀察者,稱他從小在阿根廷長大的經(jīng)歷證明,抑制通脹應(yīng)該是美聯(lián)儲的首要任務(wù)。
阿根廷經(jīng)歷了全世界史上最嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹。例如,9月,阿根廷消費(fèi)物價同比上漲了83%。1944年至2015年,阿根廷的平均年度通脹率為204%。
平托回憶了自己在阿根廷的童年。他說由于通貨膨脹,阿根廷比索的價值快速變化,工人的工資如果不兌換成美元,可能在一天內(nèi)貶值高達(dá)20%。
平托表示,在他成長過程中,面對通貨膨脹,超市不得不招聘“大批人員”每小時為產(chǎn)品更換價簽。
他說:“每天結(jié)束營業(yè)時,他們不得不取走所有價簽,第二天重新標(biāo)價?!?/p>
在見證過惡性通脹的毀滅性影響之后,平托認(rèn)為,央行在應(yīng)對不斷上漲的消費(fèi)物價時應(yīng)該采取激進(jìn)措施,否則美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能像阿根廷一樣陷入惡性通脹,至少會像上世紀(jì)70年代和80年代的美國一樣。
平托表示:“因此聽到有人說‘美聯(lián)儲過于強(qiáng)硬’,我不敢茍同?!?/p>
他表示,美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)該加息到5%的最高點(diǎn),比當(dāng)前水平高近2個百分點(diǎn)。他說如果美聯(lián)儲繼續(xù)加息,會增加失業(yè),但最終會使通脹得到控制。
但他現(xiàn)在對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)更有信心,認(rèn)為美國能應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的痛苦。他表示,美國家庭和企業(yè)的財務(wù)狀況依舊良好,銀行系統(tǒng)的杠桿率較低,而且抵押貸款標(biāo)準(zhǔn)遠(yuǎn)高于2008年。
平托表示:“以前導(dǎo)致問題的情況現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)有明顯好轉(zhuǎn)。盡管如此,還是希望不會有新情況發(fā)生?!?/p>
然而,平托承認(rèn),一個潛在的“巨大黑天鵝”是俄烏沖突等地緣政治事件對全世界的影響?!昂谔禊Z”是指具有嚴(yán)重經(jīng)濟(jì)后果的不可預(yù)測事件。
最后,他表示,隨著加息影響企業(yè)利潤,預(yù)計美股市場會繼續(xù)下跌。
他說道:“我并不認(rèn)為市場已經(jīng)探底。關(guān)于明年的企業(yè)營收,所有預(yù)測可能依舊過于樂觀;包括標(biāo)普在內(nèi)多個股票市場的市盈率倍率略高。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
U.S. consumers may have to cope with a recession if they want inflation to finally go away.
At least that’s what JPMorgan’s president and COO, Daniel Pinto, said on Monday.
“I think putting inflation back in a box is very important,” Pinto told CNBC, arguing that the Federal Reserve should continue raising interest rates even as the economy slows. “If it causes a slightly deeper recession for a period of time, that is the price we have to pay.”
Fed officials have raised interest rates five times this year in an attempt to combat inflation, but so far, their efforts haven’t proved as fruitful as economists would have liked.
The most common measure of U.S. inflation, the consumer price index (CPI), rose 8.2% from a year ago in September. While that’s nearly a percentage point below June’s 40-year high of 9.1%, it’s still well above the Fed’s 2% target rate.
And core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, hit its own fresh 40-year high just last month, lending weight to the argument that inflation is becoming “entrenched” in the economy.
Pinto’s comments are on the hawkish side, and he joins others including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and Queens’ College, Cambridge president Mohamed El-Erian.
But not every top economist and business leader believes that inflation is here to stay, or that the Fed should keep hiking rates. From billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht to Howard University economics Professor William Spriggs, there’s a growing chorus of critics who argue that inflation is already coming down and the Fed should pause its rate hikes before sparking a major recession.
On Monday, JPMorgan COO Pinto rebuked this new group of dovish Fed watchers, referencing his experience as a child in Argentina as evidence that fighting inflation needs to be a top priority for the Fed.
Argentina has historically dealt with some of the worst inflation in the world. In September, for example, consumer prices soared 83% year over year in the country. And between 1944 and 2015, Argentina’s average annual inflation was 204%.
Pinto recalled memories from his childhood in the South American nation, where he said the value of the Argentine peso changed so rapidly owing to inflation that workers could lose up to 20% of the value of their paychecks in a single day if they didn’t rush to change their money into U.S. dollars.
Pinto said that when he was growing up, supermarkets were forced to hire “armies of people” to relabel prices on products on an hourly basis as a result of inflation.
“At the end of the day, they had to remove all the labels and start over again the next day,” he said.
Pinto’s experience with the devastating effects of runaway inflation have led him to believe that central banks should be aggressive when fighting rising consumer prices, because if they don’t, inflation can become entrenched in the economy as it was in Argentina, and to a lesser extent in the U.S. in the 1970s and ’80s.
“That’s why when people say, ‘The Fed is too hawkish,′ I disagree,” Pinto said.
He went on to argue that the Fed should raise interest rates to a peak of 5%, nearly 2 percentage points above current levels. He said that if it does this, it will increase unemployment and finally bring inflation under control.
Pinto has more confidence in the U.S. economy’s ability to cope with the pain of a recession than he did in the past. He said that U.S. households and businesses still have strong balance sheets, there is less leverage in the banking system, and mortgage standards are far higher than they were in 2008.
“Things that triggered problems in the past are in a far better position now,” Pinto noted. “That said, you hope nothing new pops up.”
However, Pinto acknowledged that the potential “big Black Swan,” a term used to describe an unpredictable event with devastating economic consequences, is the spread of geopolitical tensions from Ukraine to the rest of the world.
Finally, he added that he expects the U.S. stock market to continue to fall as rate hikes weigh on corporate profits.
″I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom of the market yet,” he said. “When you think about corporate earnings heading into next year, expectations may still be too elevated; multiples in some equity markets including the S&P are probably a bit high.″