歐洲的最新通脹數(shù)據(jù)令人不安。
歐盟統(tǒng)計局(Eurostat)的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示,10月,歐元區(qū)消費物價漲幅從上個月的9.9%提高到10.7%,創(chuàng)下歷史記錄。這個數(shù)字令美國銀行(Bank of America)的經(jīng)濟學家感到意外。他們曾預測歐元區(qū)通脹將小幅下降到9.8%。
盡管歐元區(qū)竭盡全力增加能源供應和降低通脹,但上個月能源價格較去年同期暴漲了41.9%。
自從今年2月俄烏沖突爆發(fā)以來,歐洲一直在努力解決能源危機。歐洲國家剛剛決定快速向清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型,并關(guān)閉了核電廠,不久便爆發(fā)了俄烏沖突,因此俄羅斯今年切斷天然氣供應之后,歐洲國家受到了通貨膨脹的嚴重沖擊。
在俄烏沖突爆發(fā)之前,歐盟27個成員國40%的天然氣和30%的原油供應都依賴俄羅斯。
由于能源供應減少,歐洲許多地區(qū)的電價已經(jīng)上漲了兩倍。但最近,歐洲的天然氣儲備已經(jīng)超過了年度目標的90%,略高于過去五年的平均水平。
歐洲天然氣價格最近降至四個月最低,因此許多人認為能源危機可能即將結(jié)束。
但咨詢公司歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)能源主管亨寧·格洛伊斯坦卻認為,危機不太可能結(jié)束。
他上周對CNBC表示:“隨著天氣變冷,庫存將很快耗盡。如果冬季寒流導致庫存減少,2023年初的能源供應將變得非常緊張,這意味著可能出現(xiàn)價格大幅上漲和能源短缺?!?/p>
美國基建資本管理公司(Infrastructure Capital Management)CEO杰伊·哈特菲爾德解釋稱,能源市場尤其是天然氣市場“幾乎只會受到冬季天氣的影響”。
他對《財富》雜志表示:“因此我認為,現(xiàn)在宣布歐洲的天然氣危機已經(jīng)解決為時尚早?!?/p>
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師預計,歐洲明年的情況將變得更糟糕。他們在10月初的一份研究報告中表示,歐洲大陸的總能源成本到2023年將增加2萬億美元。
如果他們的預測成真,這意味著歐洲普通家庭每個月的電費要高達500歐元,將比2021年160歐元的平均水平增加兩倍以上。
哥倫比亞大學(Columbia University)全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy)研究員塔蒂阿娜·米特羅娃之前曾對《財富》雜志表示:“幾乎可以確定,明年的情況會更糟糕?!?/p>
雖然能源價格是歐洲通脹的主要驅(qū)動因素,但最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,消費物價上漲也變得更普遍。
例如,10月食品、酒精飲料和煙草價格暴漲13.1%,不包括波動性食品和能源價格的核心通脹上漲了5%,而9月的上漲幅度為4.8%。
盡管面臨高通脹,上個季度歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟仍持續(xù)增長。但國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)僅上漲了0.2%,相比之下第二季度的漲幅為0.8%。而且大多數(shù)專家認為,歐洲現(xiàn)在肯定要陷入經(jīng)濟衰退。
劍橋大學(University of Cambridge)皇后學院(Queens’ College)院長穆罕默德·埃里安曾在上個月表示,歐洲經(jīng)濟衰退是“板上釘釘”,而標普全球(S&P Global)經(jīng)濟學家克里斯·威廉森上周對彭博社表示:“第四季度,歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟可能出現(xiàn)萎縮,加劇了人們對于歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟衰退日益不可避免的猜測?!?/p>
西班牙央行行長巴勃羅·埃爾南德斯·德科斯周一表示“衰退風險正在加劇”。
在土耳其召開的一次央行會議上,他在一份事先準備的發(fā)言稿中表示:“事實上,最近幾個月,經(jīng)濟前景變得非常暗淡。現(xiàn)在我們面臨更高、更頑固的通貨膨脹、更緊張的財務狀況和全球增長放緩。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
歐洲的最新通脹數(shù)據(jù)令人不安。
歐盟統(tǒng)計局(Eurostat)的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示,10月,歐元區(qū)消費物價漲幅從上個月的9.9%提高到10.7%,創(chuàng)下歷史記錄。這個數(shù)字令美國銀行(Bank of America)的經(jīng)濟學家感到意外。他們曾預測歐元區(qū)通脹將小幅下降到9.8%。
盡管歐元區(qū)竭盡全力增加能源供應和降低通脹,但上個月能源價格較去年同期暴漲了41.9%。
自從今年2月俄烏沖突爆發(fā)以來,歐洲一直在努力解決能源危機。歐洲國家剛剛決定快速向清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型,并關(guān)閉了核電廠,不久便爆發(fā)了俄烏沖突,因此俄羅斯今年切斷天然氣供應之后,歐洲國家受到了通貨膨脹的嚴重沖擊。
在俄烏沖突爆發(fā)之前,歐盟27個成員國40%的天然氣和30%的原油供應都依賴俄羅斯。
由于能源供應減少,歐洲許多地區(qū)的電價已經(jīng)上漲了兩倍。但最近,歐洲的天然氣儲備已經(jīng)超過了年度目標的90%,略高于過去五年的平均水平。
歐洲天然氣價格最近降至四個月最低,因此許多人認為能源危機可能即將結(jié)束。
但咨詢公司歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)能源主管亨寧·格洛伊斯坦卻認為,危機不太可能結(jié)束。
他上周對CNBC表示:“隨著天氣變冷,庫存將很快耗盡。如果冬季寒流導致庫存減少,2023年初的能源供應將變得非常緊張,這意味著可能出現(xiàn)價格大幅上漲和能源短缺?!?/p>
美國基建資本管理公司(Infrastructure Capital Management)CEO杰伊·哈特菲爾德解釋稱,能源市場尤其是天然氣市場“幾乎只會受到冬季天氣的影響”。
他對《財富》雜志表示:“因此我認為,現(xiàn)在宣布歐洲的天然氣危機已經(jīng)解決為時尚早?!?/p>
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師預計,歐洲明年的情況將變得更糟糕。他們在10月初的一份研究報告中表示,歐洲大陸的總能源成本到2023年將增加2萬億美元。
如果他們的預測成真,這意味著歐洲普通家庭每個月的電費要高達500歐元,將比2021年160歐元的平均水平增加兩倍以上。
哥倫比亞大學(Columbia University)全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy)研究員塔蒂阿娜·米特羅娃之前曾對《財富》雜志表示:“幾乎可以確定,明年的情況會更糟糕?!?/p>
雖然能源價格是歐洲通脹的主要驅(qū)動因素,但最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,消費物價上漲也變得更普遍。
例如,10月食品、酒精飲料和煙草價格暴漲13.1%,不包括波動性食品和能源價格的核心通脹上漲了5%,而9月的上漲幅度為4.8%。
盡管面臨高通脹,上個季度歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟仍持續(xù)增長。但國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)僅上漲了0.2%,相比之下第二季度的漲幅為0.8%。而且大多數(shù)專家認為,歐洲現(xiàn)在肯定要陷入經(jīng)濟衰退。
劍橋大學(University of Cambridge)皇后學院(Queens’ College)院長穆罕默德·埃里安曾在上個月表示,歐洲經(jīng)濟衰退是“板上釘釘”,而標普全球(S&P Global)經(jīng)濟學家克里斯·威廉森上周對彭博社表示:“第四季度,歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟可能出現(xiàn)萎縮,加劇了人們對于歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟衰退日益不可避免的猜測?!?/p>
西班牙央行行長巴勃羅·埃爾南德斯·德科斯周一表示“衰退風險正在加劇”。
在土耳其召開的一次央行會議上,他在一份事先準備的發(fā)言稿中表示:“事實上,最近幾個月,經(jīng)濟前景變得非常暗淡?,F(xiàn)在我們面臨更高、更頑固的通貨膨脹、更緊張的財務狀況和全球增長放緩?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
The latest inflation data out of Europe isn’t pretty.
Consumer prices in the eurozone rose by a record 10.7% in October, up from 9.9% last month, according to the EU’s statistics agency, Eurostat. The figures surprised economists at Bank of America, who had expected inflation to cool slightly to 9.8%.
Despite the bloc’s best attempts to increase its energy supplies and reduce inflation, energy prices surged 41.9% last month compared with the same period a year ago.
Europe has been coping with an energy crisis ever since the Ukraine war began in February. The invasion started just after European nations decided to rapidly shift to clean energy and shutter nuclear power plants, which left them vulnerable to an inflationary shock when Russia cut off natural gas supplies this year.
Prior to the war, the European Union’s 27 member nations had relied on Russia for 40% of their natural gas and 30% of their crude oil.
As a result of reduced energy supplies, electricity bills have already tripled in many places across Europe. But lately, the bloc has managed to fill its natural gas in storage to over 90% of the annual target, slightly above the average levels seen over the past five years.
And natural gas prices in Europe have recently dropped to four-month lows, leading many to believe the energy crisis may be coming to an end.
But Henning Gloystein, director for energy at consultancy Eurasia Group, argues that’s unlikely.
“Once it gets cold, inventories will draw down. If there’s a late winter cold snap when stocks have been reduced, things could get pretty tight in early 2023, meaning possible price spikes and potential energy shortages,” he told CNBC last week.
Jay Hatfield, Infrastructure Capital Management’s CEO, explained that the energy market, and particularly the natural gas market, is “almost solely driven by weather in the winter.”
“So I think it’s too early to declare victory on the European gas situation,” he told Fortune.
And Goldman Sachs analysts expect next year could be even worse for Europe, arguing in an early October research note that total energy costs across the continent could soar by $2 trillion in 2023.
If they’re right, it would mean the typical European household would have to spend as much as 500 euros per month to keep the lights on, a more than threefold jump over 2021’s average of just 160 euros.
“It seems to be nearly guaranteed next year will be worse,” Tatiana Mitrova, a research fellow with Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, previously told Fortune.
While energy prices are the main driver of European inflation, the latest data shows consumer price increases are becoming more widespread as well.
Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices, for example, soared 13.1% in October, and core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, jumped 5%, compared with 4.8% in September.
Despite high inflation, the eurozone’s economy continued to grow last quarter. However, gross domestic product (GDP) rose just 0.2%, compared with 0.8% in the second quarter, and most experts believe that a European recession is now all but guaranteed.
Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, said last month that a European recession is a “done deal,” and Chris Williamson, an economist at S&P Global, told Bloomberg last week that “the eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter…adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.”
Spanish central bank governor Pablo Hernández de Cos also said on Monday that “recession risks are spreading.”
“Indeed, the economic outlook has significantly darkened in recent months. We are now confronting higher and more persistent inflation, tighter financial conditions, and a global growth slowdown,” he said in prepared remarks at a central bank conference in Turkey.