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歐洲的最新通脹數(shù)據(jù)令人不安。
歐盟統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Eurostat)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,10月,歐元區(qū)消費(fèi)物價(jià)漲幅從上個(gè)月的9.9%提高到10.7%,創(chuàng)下歷史記錄。這個(gè)數(shù)字令美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家感到意外。他們?cè)A(yù)測(cè)歐元區(qū)通脹將小幅下降到9.8%。
盡管歐元區(qū)竭盡全力增加能源供應(yīng)和降低通脹,但上個(gè)月能源價(jià)格較去年同期暴漲了41.9%。
自從今年2月俄烏沖突爆發(fā)以來(lái),歐洲一直在努力解決能源危機(jī)。歐洲國(guó)家剛剛決定快速向清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型,并關(guān)閉了核電廠(chǎng),不久便爆發(fā)了俄烏沖突,因此俄羅斯今年切斷天然氣供應(yīng)之后,歐洲國(guó)家受到了通貨膨脹的嚴(yán)重沖擊。
在俄烏沖突爆發(fā)之前,歐盟27個(gè)成員國(guó)40%的天然氣和30%的原油供應(yīng)都依賴(lài)俄羅斯。
由于能源供應(yīng)減少,歐洲許多地區(qū)的電價(jià)已經(jīng)上漲了兩倍。但最近,歐洲的天然氣儲(chǔ)備已經(jīng)超過(guò)了年度目標(biāo)的90%,略高于過(guò)去五年的平均水平。
歐洲天然氣價(jià)格最近降至四個(gè)月最低,因此許多人認(rèn)為能源危機(jī)可能即將結(jié)束。
但咨詢(xún)公司歐亞集團(tuán)(Eurasia Group)能源主管亨寧·格洛伊斯坦卻認(rèn)為,危機(jī)不太可能結(jié)束。
他上周對(duì)CNBC表示:“隨著天氣變冷,庫(kù)存將很快耗盡。如果冬季寒流導(dǎo)致庫(kù)存減少,2023年初的能源供應(yīng)將變得非常緊張,這意味著可能出現(xiàn)價(jià)格大幅上漲和能源短缺?!?/p>
美國(guó)基建資本管理公司(Infrastructure Capital Management)CEO杰伊·哈特菲爾德解釋稱(chēng),能源市場(chǎng)尤其是天然氣市場(chǎng)“幾乎只會(huì)受到冬季天氣的影響”。
他對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“因此我認(rèn)為,現(xiàn)在宣布?xì)W洲的天然氣危機(jī)已經(jīng)解決為時(shí)尚早?!?/p>
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師預(yù)計(jì),歐洲明年的情況將變得更糟糕。他們?cè)?0月初的一份研究報(bào)告中表示,歐洲大陸的總能源成本到2023年將增加2萬(wàn)億美元。
如果他們的預(yù)測(cè)成真,這意味著歐洲普通家庭每個(gè)月的電費(fèi)要高達(dá)500歐元,將比2021年160歐元的平均水平增加兩倍以上。
哥倫比亞大學(xué)(Columbia University)全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy)研究員塔蒂阿娜·米特羅娃之前曾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“幾乎可以確定,明年的情況會(huì)更糟糕?!?/p>
雖然能源價(jià)格是歐洲通脹的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素,但最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,消費(fèi)物價(jià)上漲也變得更普遍。
例如,10月食品、酒精飲料和煙草價(jià)格暴漲13.1%,不包括波動(dòng)性食品和能源價(jià)格的核心通脹上漲了5%,而9月的上漲幅度為4.8%。
盡管面臨高通脹,上個(gè)季度歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。但國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)僅上漲了0.2%,相比之下第二季度的漲幅為0.8%。而且大多數(shù)專(zhuān)家認(rèn)為,歐洲現(xiàn)在肯定要陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。
劍橋大學(xué)(University of Cambridge)皇后學(xué)院(Queens’ College)院長(zhǎng)穆罕默德·埃里安曾在上個(gè)月表示,歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退是“板上釘釘”,而標(biāo)普全球(S&P Global)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家克里斯·威廉森上周對(duì)彭博社表示:“第四季度,歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能出現(xiàn)萎縮,加劇了人們對(duì)于歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退日益不可避免的猜測(cè)?!?/p>
西班牙央行行長(zhǎng)巴勃羅·埃爾南德斯·德科斯周一表示“衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在加劇”。
在土耳其召開(kāi)的一次央行會(huì)議上,他在一份事先準(zhǔn)備的發(fā)言稿中表示:“事實(shí)上,最近幾個(gè)月,經(jīng)濟(jì)前景變得非常暗淡?,F(xiàn)在我們面臨更高、更頑固的通貨膨脹、更緊張的財(cái)務(wù)狀況和全球增長(zhǎng)放緩。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
歐洲的最新通脹數(shù)據(jù)令人不安。
歐盟統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Eurostat)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,10月,歐元區(qū)消費(fèi)物價(jià)漲幅從上個(gè)月的9.9%提高到10.7%,創(chuàng)下歷史記錄。這個(gè)數(shù)字令美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家感到意外。他們?cè)A(yù)測(cè)歐元區(qū)通脹將小幅下降到9.8%。
盡管歐元區(qū)竭盡全力增加能源供應(yīng)和降低通脹,但上個(gè)月能源價(jià)格較去年同期暴漲了41.9%。
自從今年2月俄烏沖突爆發(fā)以來(lái),歐洲一直在努力解決能源危機(jī)。歐洲國(guó)家剛剛決定快速向清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型,并關(guān)閉了核電廠(chǎng),不久便爆發(fā)了俄烏沖突,因此俄羅斯今年切斷天然氣供應(yīng)之后,歐洲國(guó)家受到了通貨膨脹的嚴(yán)重沖擊。
在俄烏沖突爆發(fā)之前,歐盟27個(gè)成員國(guó)40%的天然氣和30%的原油供應(yīng)都依賴(lài)俄羅斯。
由于能源供應(yīng)減少,歐洲許多地區(qū)的電價(jià)已經(jīng)上漲了兩倍。但最近,歐洲的天然氣儲(chǔ)備已經(jīng)超過(guò)了年度目標(biāo)的90%,略高于過(guò)去五年的平均水平。
歐洲天然氣價(jià)格最近降至四個(gè)月最低,因此許多人認(rèn)為能源危機(jī)可能即將結(jié)束。
但咨詢(xún)公司歐亞集團(tuán)(Eurasia Group)能源主管亨寧·格洛伊斯坦卻認(rèn)為,危機(jī)不太可能結(jié)束。
他上周對(duì)CNBC表示:“隨著天氣變冷,庫(kù)存將很快耗盡。如果冬季寒流導(dǎo)致庫(kù)存減少,2023年初的能源供應(yīng)將變得非常緊張,這意味著可能出現(xiàn)價(jià)格大幅上漲和能源短缺?!?/p>
美國(guó)基建資本管理公司(Infrastructure Capital Management)CEO杰伊·哈特菲爾德解釋稱(chēng),能源市場(chǎng)尤其是天然氣市場(chǎng)“幾乎只會(huì)受到冬季天氣的影響”。
他對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“因此我認(rèn)為,現(xiàn)在宣布?xì)W洲的天然氣危機(jī)已經(jīng)解決為時(shí)尚早?!?/p>
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師預(yù)計(jì),歐洲明年的情況將變得更糟糕。他們?cè)?0月初的一份研究報(bào)告中表示,歐洲大陸的總能源成本到2023年將增加2萬(wàn)億美元。
如果他們的預(yù)測(cè)成真,這意味著歐洲普通家庭每個(gè)月的電費(fèi)要高達(dá)500歐元,將比2021年160歐元的平均水平增加兩倍以上。
哥倫比亞大學(xué)(Columbia University)全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy)研究員塔蒂阿娜·米特羅娃之前曾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“幾乎可以確定,明年的情況會(huì)更糟糕?!?/p>
雖然能源價(jià)格是歐洲通脹的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素,但最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,消費(fèi)物價(jià)上漲也變得更普遍。
例如,10月食品、酒精飲料和煙草價(jià)格暴漲13.1%,不包括波動(dòng)性食品和能源價(jià)格的核心通脹上漲了5%,而9月的上漲幅度為4.8%。
盡管面臨高通脹,上個(gè)季度歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。但國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)僅上漲了0.2%,相比之下第二季度的漲幅為0.8%。而且大多數(shù)專(zhuān)家認(rèn)為,歐洲現(xiàn)在肯定要陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。
劍橋大學(xué)(University of Cambridge)皇后學(xué)院(Queens’ College)院長(zhǎng)穆罕默德·埃里安曾在上個(gè)月表示,歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退是“板上釘釘”,而標(biāo)普全球(S&P Global)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家克里斯·威廉森上周對(duì)彭博社表示:“第四季度,歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能出現(xiàn)萎縮,加劇了人們對(duì)于歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退日益不可避免的猜測(cè)?!?/p>
西班牙央行行長(zhǎng)巴勃羅·埃爾南德斯·德科斯周一表示“衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在加劇”。
在土耳其召開(kāi)的一次央行會(huì)議上,他在一份事先準(zhǔn)備的發(fā)言稿中表示:“事實(shí)上,最近幾個(gè)月,經(jīng)濟(jì)前景變得非常暗淡。現(xiàn)在我們面臨更高、更頑固的通貨膨脹、更緊張的財(cái)務(wù)狀況和全球增長(zhǎng)放緩?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
The latest inflation data out of Europe isn’t pretty.
Consumer prices in the eurozone rose by a record 10.7% in October, up from 9.9% last month, according to the EU’s statistics agency, Eurostat. The figures surprised economists at Bank of America, who had expected inflation to cool slightly to 9.8%.
Despite the bloc’s best attempts to increase its energy supplies and reduce inflation, energy prices surged 41.9% last month compared with the same period a year ago.
Europe has been coping with an energy crisis ever since the Ukraine war began in February. The invasion started just after European nations decided to rapidly shift to clean energy and shutter nuclear power plants, which left them vulnerable to an inflationary shock when Russia cut off natural gas supplies this year.
Prior to the war, the European Union’s 27 member nations had relied on Russia for 40% of their natural gas and 30% of their crude oil.
As a result of reduced energy supplies, electricity bills have already tripled in many places across Europe. But lately, the bloc has managed to fill its natural gas in storage to over 90% of the annual target, slightly above the average levels seen over the past five years.
And natural gas prices in Europe have recently dropped to four-month lows, leading many to believe the energy crisis may be coming to an end.
But Henning Gloystein, director for energy at consultancy Eurasia Group, argues that’s unlikely.
“Once it gets cold, inventories will draw down. If there’s a late winter cold snap when stocks have been reduced, things could get pretty tight in early 2023, meaning possible price spikes and potential energy shortages,” he told CNBC last week.
Jay Hatfield, Infrastructure Capital Management’s CEO, explained that the energy market, and particularly the natural gas market, is “almost solely driven by weather in the winter.”
“So I think it’s too early to declare victory on the European gas situation,” he told Fortune.
And Goldman Sachs analysts expect next year could be even worse for Europe, arguing in an early October research note that total energy costs across the continent could soar by $2 trillion in 2023.
If they’re right, it would mean the typical European household would have to spend as much as 500 euros per month to keep the lights on, a more than threefold jump over 2021’s average of just 160 euros.
“It seems to be nearly guaranteed next year will be worse,” Tatiana Mitrova, a research fellow with Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, previously told Fortune.
While energy prices are the main driver of European inflation, the latest data shows consumer price increases are becoming more widespread as well.
Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices, for example, soared 13.1% in October, and core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, jumped 5%, compared with 4.8% in September.
Despite high inflation, the eurozone’s economy continued to grow last quarter. However, gross domestic product (GDP) rose just 0.2%, compared with 0.8% in the second quarter, and most experts believe that a European recession is now all but guaranteed.
Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, said last month that a European recession is a “done deal,” and Chris Williamson, an economist at S&P Global, told Bloomberg last week that “the eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter…adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.”
Spanish central bank governor Pablo Hernández de Cos also said on Monday that “recession risks are spreading.”
“Indeed, the economic outlook has significantly darkened in recent months. We are now confronting higher and more persistent inflation, tighter financial conditions, and a global growth slowdown,” he said in prepared remarks at a central bank conference in Turkey.