美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員連續(xù)第四次加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn),同時(shí)暗示其抑制通脹的激進(jìn)舉措可能接近尾聲。
聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)周三在華盛頓舉行了為期兩天的會(huì)議,會(huì)后發(fā)表聲明稱,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能需要“持續(xù)加息”,將利率提高到“足夠高的水平,以便隨著時(shí)間的推移將通脹率恢復(fù)到2%”。
在聲明中新出現(xiàn)的措辭中,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)還表示:“在決定未來(lái)目標(biāo)區(qū)間的加息的步伐時(shí),委員會(huì)將考慮貨幣政策的累積緊縮程度、貨幣政策對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和通脹的影響滯后,以及經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融發(fā)展?!?/p>
在新措辭發(fā)布之際,盡管房地產(chǎn)和制造業(yè)等行業(yè)大幅放緩,但通脹和就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)依然強(qiáng)勁。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一致決定將基準(zhǔn)聯(lián)邦基金利率的目標(biāo)區(qū)間上調(diào)至3.75% - 4%,為2008年以來(lái)的最高水平。
消息公布后,美國(guó)股市抹去了早些時(shí)候的跌幅,10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率維持在較低水平。美元進(jìn)一步下跌。
聲明表示,政策制定者將不遺余力,致力于遏制通脹,但承認(rèn)加息具有滯后性。
主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾將有機(jī)會(huì)在下午2:30在華盛頓舉行的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上詳細(xì)闡述未來(lái)會(huì)議的前景。
投資者正期待他討論美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是否會(huì)在12月的下次會(huì)議上放緩加息步伐。
選舉臨近
官員們?yōu)橐种平咏?0年高點(diǎn)的通貨膨脹而努力,他們?cè)诿绹?guó)國(guó)會(huì)中期選舉前幾天聚集在一起,討論的主題一直是物價(jià)壓力帶來(lái)的憤怒。
11月8日的投票結(jié)果可能會(huì)使總統(tǒng)拜登的民主黨失去對(duì)國(guó)會(huì)的控制權(quán),民主黨的一些知名議員已經(jīng)開(kāi)始公開(kāi)敦促美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)保持克制。就鮑威爾而言,他一直試圖讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)置身于政治紛爭(zhēng)之外。
正如預(yù)期的那樣,官員們表示,他們將繼續(xù)按計(jì)劃減持國(guó)債和抵押貸款支持證券,減持速度約為每年1.1萬(wàn)億美元。
利率越高,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的工作就越困難。由于被批評(píng)忽視了通脹飆升的頑固性,官員們表示明白貨幣政策發(fā)揮作用有滯后性,而且貨幣政策越緊縮,不僅能減緩?fù)?,還能減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和就業(yè)。
根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)中值,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)9月份的預(yù)測(cè)暗示,12月份加息步伐放緩,將加息 50個(gè)基點(diǎn)。這些預(yù)測(cè)顯示,利率今年將達(dá)到4.4%,明年將達(dá)到4.6%,2024年將出現(xiàn)下調(diào)。
其他數(shù)據(jù)
本次會(huì)議沒(méi)有公布新的預(yù)估數(shù)據(jù),在12月13日至14日召開(kāi)會(huì)議之前也不會(huì)再次更新,屆時(shí)他們將獲得另外兩個(gè)月的就業(yè)和消費(fèi)通脹數(shù)據(jù)。
彭博社上月底調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們認(rèn)為12月份將加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn),但近三分之一的人預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將連續(xù)第五次加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn)。他們認(rèn)為利率將在明年達(dá)到5%的峰值。
投資者也看到了類似的情況:周三早些時(shí)候,根據(jù)金融期貨市場(chǎng)的定價(jià),也出現(xiàn)了12月將加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)和加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn)的分歧,利率在2023年達(dá)到略高于5%的峰值。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)自20世紀(jì)80年代以來(lái)最激進(jìn)的緊縮舉措正開(kāi)始為經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的某些領(lǐng)域降溫,尤其是房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域。但在通貨膨脹方面,政策制定者尚未發(fā)現(xiàn)有意義的進(jìn)展。
就業(yè)市場(chǎng)也沒(méi)有明顯緩解,9月份的失業(yè)率為3.5%,達(dá)到半個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。
雇主對(duì)員工的需求也保持強(qiáng)勁,根據(jù)勞工部周二的數(shù)據(jù),在美國(guó),每個(gè)失業(yè)者對(duì)應(yīng)1.9個(gè)工作崗位。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員連續(xù)第四次加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn),同時(shí)暗示其抑制通脹的激進(jìn)舉措可能接近尾聲。
聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)周三在華盛頓舉行了為期兩天的會(huì)議,會(huì)后發(fā)表聲明稱,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能需要“持續(xù)加息”,將利率提高到“足夠高的水平,以便隨著時(shí)間的推移將通脹率恢復(fù)到2%”。
在聲明中新出現(xiàn)的措辭中,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)還表示:“在決定未來(lái)目標(biāo)區(qū)間的加息的步伐時(shí),委員會(huì)將考慮貨幣政策的累積緊縮程度、貨幣政策對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和通脹的影響滯后,以及經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融發(fā)展?!?/p>
在新措辭發(fā)布之際,盡管房地產(chǎn)和制造業(yè)等行業(yè)大幅放緩,但通脹和就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)依然強(qiáng)勁。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一致決定將基準(zhǔn)聯(lián)邦基金利率的目標(biāo)區(qū)間上調(diào)至3.75% - 4%,為2008年以來(lái)的最高水平。
消息公布后,美國(guó)股市抹去了早些時(shí)候的跌幅,10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率維持在較低水平。美元進(jìn)一步下跌。
聲明表示,政策制定者將不遺余力,致力于遏制通脹,但承認(rèn)加息具有滯后性。
主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾將有機(jī)會(huì)在下午2:30在華盛頓舉行的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上詳細(xì)闡述未來(lái)會(huì)議的前景。
投資者正期待他討論美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是否會(huì)在12月的下次會(huì)議上放緩加息步伐。
選舉臨近
官員們?yōu)橐种平咏?0年高點(diǎn)的通貨膨脹而努力,他們?cè)诿绹?guó)國(guó)會(huì)中期選舉前幾天聚集在一起,討論的主題一直是物價(jià)壓力帶來(lái)的憤怒。
11月8日的投票結(jié)果可能會(huì)使總統(tǒng)拜登的民主黨失去對(duì)國(guó)會(huì)的控制權(quán),民主黨的一些知名議員已經(jīng)開(kāi)始公開(kāi)敦促美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)保持克制。就鮑威爾而言,他一直試圖讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)置身于政治紛爭(zhēng)之外。
正如預(yù)期的那樣,官員們表示,他們將繼續(xù)按計(jì)劃減持國(guó)債和抵押貸款支持證券,減持速度約為每年1.1萬(wàn)億美元。
利率越高,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的工作就越困難。由于被批評(píng)忽視了通脹飆升的頑固性,官員們表示明白貨幣政策發(fā)揮作用有滯后性,而且貨幣政策越緊縮,不僅能減緩?fù)?,還能減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和就業(yè)。
根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)中值,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)9月份的預(yù)測(cè)暗示,12月份加息步伐放緩,將加息 50個(gè)基點(diǎn)。這些預(yù)測(cè)顯示,利率今年將達(dá)到4.4%,明年將達(dá)到4.6%,2024年將出現(xiàn)下調(diào)。
其他數(shù)據(jù)
本次會(huì)議沒(méi)有公布新的預(yù)估數(shù)據(jù),在12月13日至14日召開(kāi)會(huì)議之前也不會(huì)再次更新,屆時(shí)他們將獲得另外兩個(gè)月的就業(yè)和消費(fèi)通脹數(shù)據(jù)。
彭博社上月底調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們認(rèn)為12月份將加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn),但近三分之一的人預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將連續(xù)第五次加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn)。他們認(rèn)為利率將在明年達(dá)到5%的峰值。
投資者也看到了類似的情況:周三早些時(shí)候,根據(jù)金融期貨市場(chǎng)的定價(jià),也出現(xiàn)了12月將加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)和加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn)的分歧,利率在2023年達(dá)到略高于5%的峰值。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)自20世紀(jì)80年代以來(lái)最激進(jìn)的緊縮舉措正開(kāi)始為經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的某些領(lǐng)域降溫,尤其是房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域。但在通貨膨脹方面,政策制定者尚未發(fā)現(xiàn)有意義的進(jìn)展。
就業(yè)市場(chǎng)也沒(méi)有明顯緩解,9月份的失業(yè)率為3.5%,達(dá)到半個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。
雇主對(duì)員工的需求也保持強(qiáng)勁,根據(jù)勞工部周二的數(shù)據(jù),在美國(guó),每個(gè)失業(yè)者對(duì)應(yīng)1.9個(gè)工作崗位。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Federal Reserve officials delivered their fourth straight 75 basis-point interest rate increase while also signaling their aggressive campaign to curb inflation could be approaching its final phase.
The Fed said that “ongoing increases” will likely be needed to bring rates to a level that is “sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time,” according to the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement released in Washington Wednesday following a two-day meeting.
In a new sentence in the statement, the Fed also said: “In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
The fresh language comes amid still-strong readings on inflation and jobs, even as sectors like housing and manufacturing have slowed substantially.
The unanimous decision lifts the target for the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its highest level since 2008.
US stocks erased an earlier drop after the news, while yields on 10-year Treasuries stayed lower. The dollar deepened declines.
The statement firmly committed policymakers to their campaign to curb inflation, but acknowledged that interest-rate increases act with a lag.
Chair Jerome Powell will have a chance to elaborate on the outlook for future meetings at his press conference at 2:30 p.m. in Washington.
Investors are looking to him to discuss whether the Fed will slow the pace of rate increases at its next meeting in December.
Election Near
Officials, fighting to curb inflation running near a 40-year high, gathered days before midterm US congressional elections in which anger over price pressures has been a dominant theme.
The outcome of the Nov. 8 vote could cost President Joe Biden‘s Democrats control of Congress, and some prominent lawmakers in his party have started to publicly urge the Fed to show restraint. Powell, for his part, has tried to keep the central bank out of the political fray.
Officials, as expected, said they will continue to reduce their holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as planned — a pace amounting to about $1.1 trillion a year.
The higher rates go, the harder the Fed’s job becomes. Having been criticized for missing the stubbornness of the inflation surge, officials know that monetary policy works with a lag and that the tighter it becomes the more it not only slows inflation, but economic growth and hiring too.
Fed forecasts in September implied a downshift to 50 basis points in December, according to the median projection. Those projections showed rates reaching 4.4% this year and 4.6% next year, before cuts in 2024.
Additional Data
No fresh estimates were released at this meeting and they won’t be updated again until officials gather Dec. 13-14, when they will have two more months of data on employment and consumer inflation in hand.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg late last month were looking for a 50 basis-point increase in December, but almost a third had penciled in a fifth 75 basis-point hike. They saw rates peaking at 5% next year.
Investors saw a similar path: Pricing in financial futures markets earlier on Wednesday was split between a 50 and 75 basis-point increase in December, with rates peaking slightly above 5% during 2023.
The Fed’s most forceful tightening campaign since the 1980s is beginning to cool some parts of the economy, particularly in housing. But policymakers have yet to see meaningful progress on inflation.
Nor has there been a significant loosening in the job market, with unemployment in September matching a half-century low of 3.5%.
Employer demand for workers has also remained strong, with 1.9 job vacancies for every unemployed person in America, according to Labor Department data Tuesday.