在幾乎所有華爾街人士都在警惕經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之際,美國(guó)投資研究公司路佛集團(tuán)(The Leuthold Group)的首席投資策略師吉姆·保爾森則認(rèn)為,明年美股將至少上漲25%。
他預(yù)測(cè)標(biāo)普500指數(shù)將在未來(lái)12個(gè)月內(nèi)觸及5,000點(diǎn),遠(yuǎn)比彭博社(Bloomberg)日常追蹤的策略師預(yù)測(cè)要樂(lè)觀得多。保爾森周四在接受彭博電視臺(tái)(Bloomberg Television)采訪時(shí)表示,投資者過(guò)于關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)及其加息的影響。他補(bǔ)充稱經(jīng)濟(jì)正在放緩。
“股市的低點(diǎn)已經(jīng)到來(lái),我認(rèn)為我們正在開(kāi)始新一輪牛市行情,”他表示?!懊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)并不是唯一的政策驅(qū)動(dòng)者,還有其他一些因素,其中很多已經(jīng)開(kāi)始顯示緩解跡象。”
十年期美債收益率徘徊在三個(gè)月低點(diǎn)附近,美元從波峰到波谷下跌近9%,抵押貸款利率連續(xù)第四周下跌,這是自2019年5月以來(lái)持續(xù)時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)的下跌。
他指出,盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)預(yù)計(jì)將再加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)以抑制通脹,但由于經(jīng)濟(jì)正在放緩,“他們將不得不很快結(jié)束加息”。
策略師們的平均預(yù)測(cè)是,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)將在2023年下跌。他們認(rèn)為,近期的工資和服務(wù)業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)表明,通脹力量仍在控制著經(jīng)濟(jì),這增加了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的可能性。
華爾街觀察人士近期則在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)下周的議息會(huì)議之前發(fā)聲,對(duì)2023年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的黯淡前景發(fā)出警告。從高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)的大衛(wèi)·所羅門(mén),到摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)的杰米·戴蒙,多家大行的CEO們都發(fā)表了對(duì)可能出現(xiàn)衰退的可怕預(yù)測(cè)。
保爾森表示:“在我的記憶中,這個(gè)國(guó)家的銀行CEO們從來(lái)沒(méi)有百分百一致地認(rèn)為我們將陷入衰退。通常情況下,衰退是出乎市場(chǎng)意料的事情,但這次似乎不再是了?!?/p>
不過(guò),保爾森仍表示,他認(rèn)為美國(guó)仍能避免衰退。
他指出:“悲觀情緒太多了。市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)被低估了太多,這為以后出現(xiàn)積極的驚喜打開(kāi)了大門(mén),人們必須迎頭趕上”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:郝秀
審校:汪皓
在幾乎所有華爾街人士都在警惕經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之際,美國(guó)投資研究公司路佛集團(tuán)(The Leuthold Group)的首席投資策略師吉姆·保爾森則認(rèn)為,明年美股將至少上漲25%。
他預(yù)測(cè)標(biāo)普500指數(shù)將在未來(lái)12個(gè)月內(nèi)觸及5,000點(diǎn),遠(yuǎn)比彭博社(Bloomberg)日常追蹤的策略師預(yù)測(cè)要樂(lè)觀得多。保爾森周四在接受彭博電視臺(tái)(Bloomberg Television)采訪時(shí)表示,投資者過(guò)于關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)及其加息的影響。他補(bǔ)充稱經(jīng)濟(jì)正在放緩。
“股市的低點(diǎn)已經(jīng)到來(lái),我認(rèn)為我們正在開(kāi)始新一輪牛市行情,”他表示。“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)并不是唯一的政策驅(qū)動(dòng)者,還有其他一些因素,其中很多已經(jīng)開(kāi)始顯示緩解跡象?!?/p>
十年期美債收益率徘徊在三個(gè)月低點(diǎn)附近,美元從波峰到波谷下跌近9%,抵押貸款利率連續(xù)第四周下跌,這是自2019年5月以來(lái)持續(xù)時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)的下跌。
他指出,盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)預(yù)計(jì)將再加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)以抑制通脹,但由于經(jīng)濟(jì)正在放緩,“他們將不得不很快結(jié)束加息”。
策略師們的平均預(yù)測(cè)是,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)將在2023年下跌。他們認(rèn)為,近期的工資和服務(wù)業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)表明,通脹力量仍在控制著經(jīng)濟(jì),這增加了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的可能性。
華爾街觀察人士近期則在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)下周的議息會(huì)議之前發(fā)聲,對(duì)2023年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的黯淡前景發(fā)出警告。從高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)的大衛(wèi)·所羅門(mén),到摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)的杰米·戴蒙,多家大行的CEO們都發(fā)表了對(duì)可能出現(xiàn)衰退的可怕預(yù)測(cè)。
保爾森表示:“在我的記憶中,這個(gè)國(guó)家的銀行CEO們從來(lái)沒(méi)有百分百一致地認(rèn)為我們將陷入衰退。通常情況下,衰退是出乎市場(chǎng)意料的事情,但這次似乎不再是了?!?/p>
不過(guò),保爾森仍表示,他認(rèn)為美國(guó)仍能避免衰退。
他指出:“悲觀情緒太多了。市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)被低估了太多,這為以后出現(xiàn)積極的驚喜打開(kāi)了大門(mén),人們必須迎頭趕上”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:郝秀
審校:汪皓
At a time when virtually all of Wall Street is on guard against a recession, Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group said stocks are about to rally at least 25% in the next year.
The chief investment strategist at Leuthold predicts the S&P 500 will hit 5,000 in the coming 12 months, a far more bullish call than any provided by the strategists Bloomberg regularly surveys. Investors are focusing too much on the Federal Reserve and the implication of its interest-rate hikes, Paulsen said in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday, adding that the economy is slowing.
“The lows are in, and I think we are starting a new bull market,” Paulsen said in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday. “The Fed is not the only policy driver in the room. There are others and a lot of those have already started to ease.”
The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around a three-month low, while the US dollar has fallen nearly 9% from peak-to-trough and mortgage rates dropped for a fourth week in a row, the longest stretch of declines since May 2019.
While the Fed is expected to raise rates by another 50 basis points to curb inflation, the economy is slowing and Paulsen said, “they are going to have to be wrapping it up pretty soon.”
The average equity strategist is predicting a decline for the S&P 500 in 2023 as recent wage and services data suggest inflationary forces still grip the economy, boosting chances of higher rates.
Wall Street watchers are sounding the alarm ahead of next week’s Fed policy meeting, warning that the outlook for the US economy in 2023 is grim. Top bank CEOs from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Solomon to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon recently shared their dire predictions of a possible recession.
“I don’t ever remember a time when the CEOs in this country are almost 100% universal that we are going to have a recession,” Paulsen said. “Usually, recessions are something that comes out of left field and surprises the market. That’s not going to happen here.”
However, Paulsen said he thinks the US can still avoid recession.
“There is too much pessimism,” he said. “Too much has already been discounted and that opens the door for a positive surprise and people have to catch up.”