為了降低通脹率,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年已經(jīng)六次加息,目前通脹率為7.7%,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)認(rèn)為理想的通脹率為2%。但是各國央行行長是如何決定2%是理想的通脹目標(biāo)而不是其他數(shù)字的呢?
這是一些批評美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的人士提出的問題。上周五,美國銀行(Bank of America)是最新一家對此事發(fā)表意見的銀行,它直言不諱地說:“2%的通脹目標(biāo)沒有什么特別之處?!?/p>
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)并不是唯一一家設(shè)定2%的通脹目標(biāo)的央行。幾個(gè)國家都設(shè)定了同樣的目標(biāo),似乎更證實(shí)了2%的通脹目標(biāo)是完美的。
然而,美國銀行有不同的看法,稱美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能不愿將2%的通脹目標(biāo)調(diào)整為其他數(shù)字,因?yàn)檫@會(huì)損害其可信度。
美國銀行全球經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家伊桑?哈里斯(Ethan Harris)寫道:“在首次經(jīng)受嚴(yán)重考驗(yàn)時(shí)就調(diào)整目標(biāo),會(huì)削弱央行的可信度,引發(fā)對經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡的真正擔(dān)憂。”
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的通脹目標(biāo)在2012年被正式采納。但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和其他央行在上世紀(jì)七八十年代的高通脹時(shí)期以非正式的方式使用了這一通脹目標(biāo)。美國銀行表示,這一目標(biāo)為政策制定者提供了“緩沖”,為他們在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間留有降息空間,同時(shí)也在很大程度上消除了通縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
哈里斯寫道:“假設(shè)實(shí)際的中性政策利率為2%,而在繁榮時(shí)期,潛在通脹率上升到如3%?!比缓?,為了收緊政策,央行將把政策利率提高到5%以上。如果下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退到來時(shí),他們可以在利率降至零之前將利率下調(diào)5%以上。以歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量,這樣的緩沖似乎是足夠的?!?/p>
哈里斯說,盡管如此,很少有跡象表明2%是“最佳目標(biāo)”。
"證據(jù)顯示,與穩(wěn)定的2%的通脹目標(biāo)相比,穩(wěn)定的4%的通脹率帶來的額外成本非常小。無論設(shè)定哪種通脹目標(biāo),經(jīng)濟(jì)都會(huì)適應(yīng)這樣的情況。"
哈里斯還認(rèn)為,2%的通脹目標(biāo)并不一定能“滿足”央行必須保持價(jià)格穩(wěn)定的目標(biāo),他指的是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的兩大主要目標(biāo):確保最大就業(yè)和保持價(jià)格穩(wěn)定。
美國銀行說,如果通脹率穩(wěn)定在3%,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)做出妥協(xié),或給自己更多時(shí)間(盡管沒有明確的最后期限)來實(shí)現(xiàn)2%的通脹目標(biāo)。美國銀行說,溫和的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能會(huì)使通脹率降至3%,之后美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)逐漸將通脹率降至2%——類似于上世紀(jì)80年代和90年代發(fā)生的情況。
私人投資公司喜達(dá)屋資本集團(tuán)(Starwood Capital Group)首席執(zhí)行官巴里?斯特恩利希特(Barry Sternlicht)和著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家威廉?斯普里格斯(William Spriggs)此前在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示,盡管如此,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對2%的通脹目標(biāo)的執(zhí)著有可能讓經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退。
斯普里格斯說:“2%的通脹目標(biāo)是可以改變的。這一目標(biāo)并不是經(jīng)濟(jì)模型得出的結(jié)果,即2%的通脹目標(biāo)是理想的通脹目標(biāo)。”
斯特恩利希特曾抨擊美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)使用滯后的消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù),稱這些數(shù)據(jù)并不能顯示通脹的實(shí)時(shí)情況,他對2%的通脹目標(biāo)提出批評。
“我認(rèn)為設(shè)定2%的通脹目標(biāo)有點(diǎn)武斷。”斯特恩利希特說。“通脹目標(biāo)可能是3%或4%嗎?3%或4%也沒關(guān)系啊?!?/p>
他補(bǔ)充說:“我認(rèn)為2%作為人為設(shè)定的目標(biāo)可能看起來是一個(gè)不錯(cuò)的數(shù)字。但它是如此接近于零。問題出在,當(dāng)你追求2%的通脹目標(biāo)時(shí),通脹率很容易降到-2%。你可能會(huì)進(jìn)入一個(gè)沒有需求、商品過多的通縮世界?!?/p>
無論如何,哈里斯建議美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)等到通脹得到控制后再對2%的通脹目標(biāo)做出改變。他說,到那時(shí),“對缺乏可信度或經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡的擔(dān)憂就會(huì)少得多?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
為了降低通脹率,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年已經(jīng)六次加息,目前通脹率為7.7%,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)認(rèn)為理想的通脹率為2%。但是各國央行行長是如何決定2%是理想的通脹目標(biāo)而不是其他數(shù)字的呢?
這是一些批評美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的人士提出的問題。上周五,美國銀行(Bank of America)是最新一家對此事發(fā)表意見的銀行,它直言不諱地說:“2%的通脹目標(biāo)沒有什么特別之處?!?/p>
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)并不是唯一一家設(shè)定2%的通脹目標(biāo)的央行。幾個(gè)國家都設(shè)定了同樣的目標(biāo),似乎更證實(shí)了2%的通脹目標(biāo)是完美的。
然而,美國銀行有不同的看法,稱美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能不愿將2%的通脹目標(biāo)調(diào)整為其他數(shù)字,因?yàn)檫@會(huì)損害其可信度。
美國銀行全球經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家伊桑?哈里斯(Ethan Harris)寫道:“在首次經(jīng)受嚴(yán)重考驗(yàn)時(shí)就調(diào)整目標(biāo),會(huì)削弱央行的可信度,引發(fā)對經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡的真正擔(dān)憂?!?/p>
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的通脹目標(biāo)在2012年被正式采納。但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和其他央行在上世紀(jì)七八十年代的高通脹時(shí)期以非正式的方式使用了這一通脹目標(biāo)。美國銀行表示,這一目標(biāo)為政策制定者提供了“緩沖”,為他們在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間留有降息空間,同時(shí)也在很大程度上消除了通縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
哈里斯寫道:“假設(shè)實(shí)際的中性政策利率為2%,而在繁榮時(shí)期,潛在通脹率上升到如3%?!比缓?,為了收緊政策,央行將把政策利率提高到5%以上。如果下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退到來時(shí),他們可以在利率降至零之前將利率下調(diào)5%以上。以歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量,這樣的緩沖似乎是足夠的?!?/p>
哈里斯說,盡管如此,很少有跡象表明2%是“最佳目標(biāo)”。
"證據(jù)顯示,與穩(wěn)定的2%的通脹目標(biāo)相比,穩(wěn)定的4%的通脹率帶來的額外成本非常小。無論設(shè)定哪種通脹目標(biāo),經(jīng)濟(jì)都會(huì)適應(yīng)這樣的情況。"
哈里斯還認(rèn)為,2%的通脹目標(biāo)并不一定能“滿足”央行必須保持價(jià)格穩(wěn)定的目標(biāo),他指的是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的兩大主要目標(biāo):確保最大就業(yè)和保持價(jià)格穩(wěn)定。
美國銀行說,如果通脹率穩(wěn)定在3%,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)做出妥協(xié),或給自己更多時(shí)間(盡管沒有明確的最后期限)來實(shí)現(xiàn)2%的通脹目標(biāo)。美國銀行說,溫和的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能會(huì)使通脹率降至3%,之后美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)逐漸將通脹率降至2%——類似于上世紀(jì)80年代和90年代發(fā)生的情況。
私人投資公司喜達(dá)屋資本集團(tuán)(Starwood Capital Group)首席執(zhí)行官巴里?斯特恩利希特(Barry Sternlicht)和著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家威廉?斯普里格斯(William Spriggs)此前在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示,盡管如此,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對2%的通脹目標(biāo)的執(zhí)著有可能讓經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退。
斯普里格斯說:“2%的通脹目標(biāo)是可以改變的。這一目標(biāo)并不是經(jīng)濟(jì)模型得出的結(jié)果,即2%的通脹目標(biāo)是理想的通脹目標(biāo)?!?/p>
斯特恩利希特曾抨擊美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)使用滯后的消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù),稱這些數(shù)據(jù)并不能顯示通脹的實(shí)時(shí)情況,他對2%的通脹目標(biāo)提出批評。
“我認(rèn)為設(shè)定2%的通脹目標(biāo)有點(diǎn)武斷?!彼固囟骼L卣f?!巴浤繕?biāo)可能是3%或4%嗎?3%或4%也沒關(guān)系啊?!?/p>
他補(bǔ)充說:“我認(rèn)為2%作為人為設(shè)定的目標(biāo)可能看起來是一個(gè)不錯(cuò)的數(shù)字。但它是如此接近于零。問題出在,當(dāng)你追求2%的通脹目標(biāo)時(shí),通脹率很容易降到-2%。你可能會(huì)進(jìn)入一個(gè)沒有需求、商品過多的通縮世界?!?/p>
無論如何,哈里斯建議美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)等到通脹得到控制后再對2%的通脹目標(biāo)做出改變。他說,到那時(shí),“對缺乏可信度或經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡的擔(dān)憂就會(huì)少得多?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
KYODO NEWS—GETTY IMAGES
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates six times this year in its effort to lower inflation—currently at 7.7%—to what it considers to be the ideal level of 2%. But how did the central bankers decide that 2% is ideal rather than some other number?
It’s a question several Fed critics have raised. On Friday, Bank of America was the latest to weigh in on the matter, saying bluntly, “There is nothing special about 2%.”
The Fed has company in its 2% inflation target. Several countries have the same target, seemingly giving more confirmation that 2% is perfect.
Bank of America, however, has a different take, saying that the Fed could be reluctant to adjust its 2% target to some other number because it would undermine its credibility.
“Moving the target the first time it is seriously tested undercuts central banks’ credibility, raising real concerns about a slippery slope,” Bank of America’s global economist, Ethan Harris, wrote.
The Fed’s 2% target was officially adopted in 2012. But the Fed and other central banks had used it more informally amid the high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. The target has provided “buffers” for policymakers by leaving room to cut interest rates during a recession while also largely eliminating the risk of deflation, BofA said.
“Suppose the neutral real policy rate was 2% and underlying inflation increased to, say, 3% during a boom,” Harris wrote. “Then to make policy restrictive the central bank would raise the policy rate to above 5%. If and when the next recession came, they would be able to cut rates by more than 5% before hitting zero. By historic standards, that seems like an adequate buffer.”
Still there’s little to suggest that 2% is the “optimal target,” Harris said.
“The evidence is that steady 4% inflation imposes very small additional costs compared to steady 2% inflation. Either way the economy adapts.”
Harris also argued that 2% doesn’t necessarily “satisfy” the notion that central banks must maintain price stability, referring to the Fed’s two primary goals of ensuring maximum employment and maintaining.
If inflation stabilized at 3%, the Fed may compromise or give itself more time (although there’s no clear deadline) to reach its target, BofA said. A mild recession could drive inflation down to 3%, after which the Fed could reduce inflation to 2% over time—similar to what happened in the 1980s and 1990s, BofA said.
Nonetheless, the Fed’s obsession with its 2% target risks pushing the economy into a recession, Barry Sternlicht, CEO of private investment firm Starwood Capital Group, and prominent economist William Spriggs, previously told Fortune.
“There’s nothing written in stone that says inflation is supposed to be limited to 2%,” Spriggs said. “That target was not the result of an economic model that says 2% inflation is the ideal inflation.”
Sternlicht, who has slammed the Fed for using lagging numbers—measured by the consumer price index—that don’t actually show what’s happening with inflation in real time, criticized the 2% target.
“I think the number 2% is kind of arbitrary,” Sternlicht said. “And could it be 3% or 4%? That would be fine.”
He added: “I think 2% as an artificial target may seem like a nice number. But it’s so close to zero. And the problem is, as you go to 2%, you could easily go to minus 2%. You could go into a deflationary world where there’s no demand and too many goods.”
Whatever the case, Harris suggested that the Fed wait until inflation is under control to make any changes to its 2% target. At that point “there would be much less concern about a lack of credibility or slippery slope,” he said.