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2022年重返辦公室大戰(zhàn),目前員工占上風(fēng)

TREY WILLIAMS
2022-12-17

高管們曾以為2022年是“重返辦公室”之年,他們錯了。

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Executives and business leaders had their eyes set on 2022 being the year the office returned in full force. That didn't happen.之前高管和商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖都以為2022年能全面重返辦公室。然而實際情況并非如此。圖片來源:PETER CADE—GETTY IMAGES

還記得2020年3月嗎?就在那一周,我們告別了辦公室,開始在家臨時湊出一小塊空間用來上班。你當(dāng)然記得。當(dāng)時計劃在家應(yīng)付兩周就能重返公司坐回自己的轉(zhuǎn)椅,而且順帶著,工作狀態(tài)也徹底恢復(fù)常態(tài)。

然而此后過了兩年,又到了第三年,美國各地的上班族仍然窩在沙發(fā)和閑置臥室里對著電腦工作,至少一周里多數(shù)時間都在家辦公。究其原因并不是高管們坐視不理,其實他們真心盼望著恢復(fù)舊日里人人都在辦公室的美好時光。

今年的辦公室本應(yīng)返回疫情爆發(fā)前一年的狀態(tài)。但現(xiàn)實世界里的2022年并未像多位決策者希望中一樣。重返辦公室的計劃和任務(wù)斷斷續(xù)續(xù),不斷受到病毒新變異阻礙,而且將職場關(guān)系推向工作主義,員工和管理層就工作方式的未來展開了真正的戰(zhàn)爭。

事后諸葛亮地看,現(xiàn)在可以斷定認(rèn)為2020年5月或甚至幾個月后的秋天能返回辦公室只是一廂情愿(可能已是最委婉的說法了)。當(dāng)時根本沒到疫情最糟糕的時候。第一年沒人接種疫苗,似乎也沒什么辦法能將感染曲線拉平。2021年初人們看到一些夏天回到辦公室的希望,因為那年春天人們紛紛接種疫苗,然而后來出現(xiàn)了德爾塔變種,隨后年底出現(xiàn)奧密克戎,很快打破了“人人接種后火爆夏日”的希望,更通俗的說法就是,返回辦公室無望。

日歷翻到2022年1月,人們已經(jīng)習(xí)慣了隔一段時間叫嚷一輪重返辦公室。2020年和2021年兩度落敗后,高管和商界領(lǐng)袖開始關(guān)注2022年是否有望。然而迎來的是關(guān)于辦公室和未來工作形式爭論更激烈一年。

2022年:重返辦公室的嘗試受挫

2021年很多公司經(jīng)歷太多失望之后,幾乎放棄了規(guī)劃返工日期,不過今年前幾個月返工率其實出現(xiàn)了上升。

追蹤員工鑰匙卡錄入系統(tǒng)模式的安全公司卡斯?fàn)栂到y(tǒng)公司(Kastle Systems)稱,2022年初,辦公室到崗率略高于23%。到4月的第一周,到崗率躍升至43%,春季和夏季大部分時間里,到崗率基本保持不變。

當(dāng)時正是遠(yuǎn)程辦公與混合辦公的員工與高管緊張關(guān)系和焦慮加劇的時期。2022年前幾個月奧密克戎浪潮達到高峰后,人們對疫情的擔(dān)心出現(xiàn)了重大轉(zhuǎn)變。春天各公司老板已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好把員工召集回辦公室:蘋果的新混合辦公計劃讓員工感到沮喪,高盛(Goldman Sachs)要求員工每周有五天都在公司工作,谷歌也停止居家開始將員工拉回辦公室,還在灣區(qū)辦公室為員工舉辦了一場莉佐的演唱會。

然而疫情兩年后,白領(lǐng)員工已習(xí)慣了遠(yuǎn)程辦公的自由和靈活,他們在任何地方都能工作,在海灘和森林里度假時也能接聽電話,上Zoom開視頻會議。慶祝返回辦公室的儀式再熱鬧也打動不了他們。由于勞動力市場緊張,很多白領(lǐng)員工覺得自己占上風(fēng)。

幾乎人人都在反抗,成批地威脅離職。由于反對聲浪太大,加上出現(xiàn)新的奧密克戎亞變種,多家公司被迫推遲或修改重返辦公室的計劃。公司宣布重返辦公室時嗓門很大,到強制執(zhí)行的時候卻出奇地安靜,因為員工根本無視規(guī)定。此外,沒人愿意夏天重返辦公室,連高管也不愿意。

本來勞動節(jié)應(yīng)該是最終界限,我們又聽到蘋果、Peloton和Comcast等公司呼吁員工返回辦公室。一些公司還像摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)和高盛一樣態(tài)度堅決,規(guī)定要么返回公司要么離職,另一些公司則推出午餐盒等福利引誘員工。

一定程度上起了作用。到崗率略有上升,從勞動節(jié)前的近44%上升到47%以上,也是疫情以來最高水平。但如果高管希望到崗率超過50%,就會非常失望。整個秋天,辦公室到崗率一直徘徊在47%左右。

擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟衰退并未影響人們居家辦公

今年幾乎從未間斷的重返辦公室辯論中還出現(xiàn)了一個更有趣的現(xiàn)象,就是眼看著人們的話題從何時能回到“正常”的朝九晚五,轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)T工來說最合適的混合、靈活的工作環(huán)境應(yīng)該什么樣。高管似乎基本上放棄了強迫員工重返辦公室。但也許只是在等待時機,準(zhǔn)備來場持久戰(zhàn)?

“有種相當(dāng)廣泛的觀點認(rèn)為,辦公文化里已接納混合模式而且轉(zhuǎn)向很成功,但隨著經(jīng)濟逐漸衰退,人們將被迫回到辦公室,因為別無選擇,”上個月全球咨詢和獵頭公司光輝國際(Korn Ferry)高級客戶合伙人丹·卡普蘭(Dan Kaplan)告訴《財富》雜志。

他說,但問題是“人們不想回去?!?/p>

由于職位空缺非常多,哪怕普通的白領(lǐng)員工也能占據(jù)主動,選擇盡情享受生活,他們確實有條件要求靈活辦公以及平衡工作生活福利。

然而8月底,職位空缺降幅超過預(yù)期,從之前一個月的1120萬減少到1010萬,預(yù)示著經(jīng)濟前景更加黯淡,導(dǎo)致各行業(yè)公司經(jīng)歷了一段時間的增員和業(yè)務(wù)增長后必須勒緊褲腰帶。

卡普蘭的想法是,員工也會認(rèn)定經(jīng)濟衰退即將到來,迅速返回辦公室,態(tài)度更務(wù)實工作效率也更高,從而爭取不被裁員。但為了削減成本,一些雇主在員工之前已經(jīng)選擇放棄辦公室,與此同時跟經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的預(yù)期相反,崗位仍在繼續(xù)增加,說明員工可能仍會占據(jù)上風(fēng)。

現(xiàn)在要判斷2023年(沒準(zhǔn)又是回歸辦公室的一年?)卡普蘭的理論是否正確還為時過早,起碼2022年下半年并未真正實現(xiàn),當(dāng)然各種焦慮顯而易見。

9月、10月和11月大部分時間里,各處辦公室到崗率相對穩(wěn)定地保持在47%左右,某些行業(yè)可能高一些。卡斯?fàn)栂到y(tǒng)公司最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至12月5日的一周,到崗率已躍升至49%,是疫情開始以來最高水平。

雖然今年杰米·戴蒙和埃隆·馬斯克等高管想象中的重返辦公室沒實現(xiàn),現(xiàn)實情況卻有趣得多:不管是工作未來如何不斷演變,還是辦公室在當(dāng)中是何種因素,都由切實受到情勢影響的人們推動。我們肯定會持續(xù)關(guān)注。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

還記得2020年3月嗎?就在那一周,我們告別了辦公室,開始在家臨時湊出一小塊空間用來上班。你當(dāng)然記得。當(dāng)時計劃在家應(yīng)付兩周就能重返公司坐回自己的轉(zhuǎn)椅,而且順帶著,工作狀態(tài)也徹底恢復(fù)常態(tài)。

然而此后過了兩年,又到了第三年,美國各地的上班族仍然窩在沙發(fā)和閑置臥室里對著電腦工作,至少一周里多數(shù)時間都在家辦公。究其原因并不是高管們坐視不理,其實他們真心盼望著恢復(fù)舊日里人人都在辦公室的美好時光。

今年的辦公室本應(yīng)返回疫情爆發(fā)前一年的狀態(tài)。但現(xiàn)實世界里的2022年并未像多位決策者希望中一樣。重返辦公室的計劃和任務(wù)斷斷續(xù)續(xù),不斷受到病毒新變異阻礙,而且將職場關(guān)系推向工作主義,員工和管理層就工作方式的未來展開了真正的戰(zhàn)爭。

事后諸葛亮地看,現(xiàn)在可以斷定認(rèn)為2020年5月或甚至幾個月后的秋天能返回辦公室只是一廂情愿(可能已是最委婉的說法了)。當(dāng)時根本沒到疫情最糟糕的時候。第一年沒人接種疫苗,似乎也沒什么辦法能將感染曲線拉平。2021年初人們看到一些夏天回到辦公室的希望,因為那年春天人們紛紛接種疫苗,然而后來出現(xiàn)了德爾塔變種,隨后年底出現(xiàn)奧密克戎,很快打破了“人人接種后火爆夏日”的希望,更通俗的說法就是,返回辦公室無望。

日歷翻到2022年1月,人們已經(jīng)習(xí)慣了隔一段時間叫嚷一輪重返辦公室。2020年和2021年兩度落敗后,高管和商界領(lǐng)袖開始關(guān)注2022年是否有望。然而迎來的是關(guān)于辦公室和未來工作形式爭論更激烈一年。

2022年:重返辦公室的嘗試受挫

2021年很多公司經(jīng)歷太多失望之后,幾乎放棄了規(guī)劃返工日期,不過今年前幾個月返工率其實出現(xiàn)了上升。

追蹤員工鑰匙卡錄入系統(tǒng)模式的安全公司卡斯?fàn)栂到y(tǒng)公司(Kastle Systems)稱,2022年初,辦公室到崗率略高于23%。到4月的第一周,到崗率躍升至43%,春季和夏季大部分時間里,到崗率基本保持不變。

當(dāng)時正是遠(yuǎn)程辦公與混合辦公的員工與高管緊張關(guān)系和焦慮加劇的時期。2022年前幾個月奧密克戎浪潮達到高峰后,人們對疫情的擔(dān)心出現(xiàn)了重大轉(zhuǎn)變。春天各公司老板已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好把員工召集回辦公室:蘋果的新混合辦公計劃讓員工感到沮喪,高盛(Goldman Sachs)要求員工每周有五天都在公司工作,谷歌也停止居家開始將員工拉回辦公室,還在灣區(qū)辦公室為員工舉辦了一場莉佐的演唱會。

然而疫情兩年后,白領(lǐng)員工已習(xí)慣了遠(yuǎn)程辦公的自由和靈活,他們在任何地方都能工作,在海灘和森林里度假時也能接聽電話,上Zoom開視頻會議。慶祝返回辦公室的儀式再熱鬧也打動不了他們。由于勞動力市場緊張,很多白領(lǐng)員工覺得自己占上風(fēng)。

幾乎人人都在反抗,成批地威脅離職。由于反對聲浪太大,加上出現(xiàn)新的奧密克戎亞變種,多家公司被迫推遲或修改重返辦公室的計劃。公司宣布重返辦公室時嗓門很大,到強制執(zhí)行的時候卻出奇地安靜,因為員工根本無視規(guī)定。此外,沒人愿意夏天重返辦公室,連高管也不愿意。

本來勞動節(jié)應(yīng)該是最終界限,我們又聽到蘋果、Peloton和Comcast等公司呼吁員工返回辦公室。一些公司還像摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)和高盛一樣態(tài)度堅決,規(guī)定要么返回公司要么離職,另一些公司則推出午餐盒等福利引誘員工。

一定程度上起了作用。到崗率略有上升,從勞動節(jié)前的近44%上升到47%以上,也是疫情以來最高水平。但如果高管希望到崗率超過50%,就會非常失望。整個秋天,辦公室到崗率一直徘徊在47%左右。

擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟衰退并未影響人們居家辦公

今年幾乎從未間斷的重返辦公室辯論中還出現(xiàn)了一個更有趣的現(xiàn)象,就是眼看著人們的話題從何時能回到“正常”的朝九晚五,轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)T工來說最合適的混合、靈活的工作環(huán)境應(yīng)該什么樣。高管似乎基本上放棄了強迫員工重返辦公室。但也許只是在等待時機,準(zhǔn)備來場持久戰(zhàn)?

“有種相當(dāng)廣泛的觀點認(rèn)為,辦公文化里已接納混合模式而且轉(zhuǎn)向很成功,但隨著經(jīng)濟逐漸衰退,人們將被迫回到辦公室,因為別無選擇,”上個月全球咨詢和獵頭公司光輝國際(Korn Ferry)高級客戶合伙人丹·卡普蘭(Dan Kaplan)告訴《財富》雜志。

他說,但問題是“人們不想回去?!?/p>

由于職位空缺非常多,哪怕普通的白領(lǐng)員工也能占據(jù)主動,選擇盡情享受生活,他們確實有條件要求靈活辦公以及平衡工作生活福利。

然而8月底,職位空缺降幅超過預(yù)期,從之前一個月的1120萬減少到1010萬,預(yù)示著經(jīng)濟前景更加黯淡,導(dǎo)致各行業(yè)公司經(jīng)歷了一段時間的增員和業(yè)務(wù)增長后必須勒緊褲腰帶。

卡普蘭的想法是,員工也會認(rèn)定經(jīng)濟衰退即將到來,迅速返回辦公室,態(tài)度更務(wù)實工作效率也更高,從而爭取不被裁員。但為了削減成本,一些雇主在員工之前已經(jīng)選擇放棄辦公室,與此同時跟經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的預(yù)期相反,崗位仍在繼續(xù)增加,說明員工可能仍會占據(jù)上風(fēng)。

現(xiàn)在要判斷2023年(沒準(zhǔn)又是回歸辦公室的一年?)卡普蘭的理論是否正確還為時過早,起碼2022年下半年并未真正實現(xiàn),當(dāng)然各種焦慮顯而易見。

9月、10月和11月大部分時間里,各處辦公室到崗率相對穩(wěn)定地保持在47%左右,某些行業(yè)可能高一些??ㄋ?fàn)栂到y(tǒng)公司最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至12月5日的一周,到崗率已躍升至49%,是疫情開始以來最高水平。

雖然今年杰米·戴蒙和埃隆·馬斯克等高管想象中的重返辦公室沒實現(xiàn),現(xiàn)實情況卻有趣得多:不管是工作未來如何不斷演變,還是辦公室在當(dāng)中是何種因素,都由切實受到情勢影響的人們推動。我們肯定會持續(xù)關(guān)注。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

Do you remember March 2020? Specifically, the week we said goodbye to our office plants and began setting up make-shift office spaces at home? Of course you do. It was supposed to last two weeks before we’d be back in our rolly chairs and, for all intents and purposes, back to business as usual.

But two, going on three, years since then, and many office workers across the country are still typing away from their couches and spare bedrooms for at least a major part of their week—and it’s not for lack of trying by the executives eager to bring back the good ol’ days of the office.

This was supposed to be the year we all went back to how work looked pre-pandemic. But 2022 didn’t unfold the way many decision makers had hoped. Return-to-office plans and mandates came in fits and starts, hampered by new variants, shifting relationships to workism, and a veritable war between employees and management over the future of how we do our jobs.

Hindsight is 20/20, and we can all agree it shows that we were naive (probably the nicest way to put it) to ever think we’d be returning to the office in May 2020 or even a few months later in the fall. We had yet to experience the nadirs of the pandemic. No one was vaccinated and nothing seemed to flatten the curve that first year. And while 2021 initially offered some hope that we’d be back at our desks by summer, as people lined up for vaccines in the spring, the emergence of the Delta variant, followed later by Omicron toward the end of year, quickly dulled the promise of a “hot vax summer” and—slightly less bacchanalian—return to office.

By the time we flipped our calendars to January 2022, we were getting used to return-to-work cycle. After throwing in the towel on 2020 and 2021, executives and business leaders had their eye set on a 2022 return. What they got, however, was a chaotic up-and-down year filled with more questions about the office and what the future held.

2022: The year of thwarted return-to-office attempts

While many companies all but gave up on giving firm return-to office dates after so much disappointment in 2021, office occupancy rates actually saw an uptick a few months into the year.

At the start of 2022, office occupancy stood at just over 23%, according to Kastle Systems, a security company that tracks patterns in employee key-card entry systems. That jumped to 43% office occupancy by the first week of April, where it roughly remained through much of the spring and summer.

It was a period of heightened tension and anxiety between remote and hybrid workers and executives. There was a major shift in pandemic concerns in the early months of 2022, after the height of the Omicron wave. By spring, bosses were ready to start calling workers back to offices: Apple frustrated employees with its new hybrid plan, Goldman Sachs demanded staff to return five days a week, and Google put an end to working from home and started pulling workers back as well. The tech giant celebrated with a Lizzo concert for employees in its Bay Area offices.

Two years into the pandemic, however, white collar workers were used to their newfound freedom and flexibility that allowed them work from anywhere, taking calls and Zooms from beaches and woodsy getaways. They could not be swayed by flashy RTO celebrations. And in a tight labor market, many white collar employees felt they had the upper hand.

They all but rebelled, threatening to quit in droves. The fervent dissidence, coupled with the rise of new Omicron subvariants, forced many companies either delay or revise those their return-to-office plans. As loud as companies declared their return-to-office intentions, they were surprisingly quiet when it came time for enforcement as their employees simply ignored the mandates. Besides, no one wants to go into the office in the summer—not even executives

Labor Day was supposed to be the ultimate do-or-die, line in the sand—and once again we heard from companies like Apple, Peloton, and Comcast calling workers back. Some companies, in the vein of JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, put their foot down and demanded a return or else, while others goaded workers with perks like lunch boxes to lure them back to their cubicles.

It worked, to a certain extent. Office occupancy saw a slight uptick from nearly 44% before the holiday, to more than 47%, the highest it had been since the start of the pandemic. But if execs were hoping to see that number tip over 50% they were sorely disappointed. Office occupancy has hovered around 47% all fall.

Recession fears haven’t stopped people from working from home

One of the more interesting wrinkles in this year’s virtually nonstop return-to-office debate was watching the narrative turn from when will we return to the “normal” nine-to-five, in-office work day to what’s the best hybrid, flexible working situation for employees. Executives, it seems, essentially gave up trying to force people back to offices. But perhaps they’re just biding their time and playing some long game?

“There’s a pretty broadly held view that we’ve done the hybrid thing, and it’s worked, but that we’re heading into a recession, and people are going to be forced to come back to the office because they’ll have no other choice,” Dan Kaplan, senior client partner at global consulting and headhunting firm Korn Ferry, told Fortune last month.

But the thing is, he says, “people aren’t going back.”

Rank-and-file office workers grabbed hold of the upper hand for dear life when job openings were a plenty, and they had leverage to demand flexibility and work-life benefits.

At the end of August, however, the number of job openings fell from 11.2 million the month prior to 10.1 million, more than expected. It signaled a gloomier economic outlook that caused companies across industries to tighten their belts after a period of increased hiring and growth.

The idea, as Kaplan laid out, was that employees would see the looming recession as writing on the wall and flock back to offices in an attempt to portray a more present, productive front and save themselves from layoffs. But some employers are opting to get rid of the office before the worker as a cost-cutting measure, and the economy is continuing to add jobs, defying economists’ expectations—signs the worker may still have the upper hand.

It’s too early to say whether Kaplan’s theory will prove true as we enter 2023 (the new year of return to office?), but it didn’t really come to fruition in the latter part of 2022, though those anxieties were palpable.

Office occupancy held relatively steady around 47%, with an uptick here and there, through most of September, October, and November. The latest data from Kastle Systems, however, shows that the week of Dec. 5, occupancy rates jumped to 49%, among the highest it’s been since the start of the pandemic.

Although returning to the office the way execs like Jamie Dimon and Elon Musk envisioned didn’t happen this year, what unfolded was so much more interesting: a real-time evolution of the future of work and how the office factors into that equation, driven by the people most impacted by how the puzzle pieces actually fall. We’re definitely keeping an eye on what comes next.

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