如今,大衛(wèi)·泰珀最為人所知的身份可能是美國(guó)職業(yè)橄欖球大聯(lián)盟卡羅萊納黑豹隊(duì)的老板。但在成為卡羅萊納黑豹隊(duì)的老板之前,這位億萬(wàn)富翁以對(duì)沖基金巨頭的身份揚(yáng)名。
泰珀在高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)擔(dān)任信貸分析師,在磨練技能后,他于1993年創(chuàng)立了Appaloosa Management公司,并以在別人恐慌時(shí)進(jìn)行高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投注而聞名。2009年大金融危機(jī)后,Appaloosa Management公司通過大肆收購(gòu)遭受重創(chuàng)的銀行股,賺了70億美元,一舉得名。
但在周四,泰珀——他仍然認(rèn)為自己是“樂觀主義者”——透露他在做空股市。這位對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理表示,各國(guó)央行將繼續(xù)加息以抑制通脹,這對(duì)股價(jià)來(lái)說是個(gè)壞消息。
“所以我可能會(huì)說,我傾向于做空股市?!彼谡劦阶隹展墒袝r(shí)對(duì)美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司財(cái)經(jīng)頻道(CNBC)表示?!耙?yàn)槲艺J(rèn)為,當(dāng)有這么多央行告訴我他們將要做什么的時(shí)候,上行/下行對(duì)我來(lái)說就沒有意義了。”
根據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的數(shù)據(jù),全球許多央行在2022年大舉加息,希望以此來(lái)遏制全球通脹。全球通脹率從2020年初的3.2%飆升至目前的8.8%。
在美國(guó),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年已連續(xù)七次加息,累計(jì)加息4.25%,為1980年以來(lái)的最高水平。
泰珀表示,盡管批評(píng)人士一致認(rèn)為央行應(yīng)該放緩或暫停加息,但他認(rèn)為官員們將繼續(xù)專注于抗擊通脹。
“你必須相信他們?!彼f?!拔艺J(rèn)為他們擔(dān)心的是3.5%、3.75%、4%的頑固通脹率?!?/p>
華爾街的一些領(lǐng)軍人物表示擔(dān)心,明年的通脹率可能不會(huì)降到央行設(shè)定的2%的目標(biāo)。劍橋大學(xué)皇后學(xué)院院長(zhǎng)穆罕默德·埃爾-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)上個(gè)月表示,由于工資上漲、供應(yīng)鏈問題和 "全球化出現(xiàn)的變化",通脹可能會(huì)"卡"在一個(gè)令人不安的高水平上。
在利率上升的環(huán)境下,泰珀質(zhì)疑標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的市盈率是否合理。
市盈率倍數(shù),或市盈率,是投資者評(píng)估股票價(jià)值的一種方式,或者在這種情況下,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)是基于公司收益進(jìn)行估值的。此外,由于利率上升會(huì)影響收益,利率上升時(shí)期,股票的市盈率往往較低。
“為什么我們?cè)诶蕿?%的時(shí)候,仍然會(huì)有那樣高的市盈率?我必須給出符合市場(chǎng)實(shí)際的市盈率?!碧╃曛芩谋硎?。
目前標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的市盈率約為17.8倍,為3,800點(diǎn),但泰珀指出,如果這一數(shù)字在未來(lái)一年略微下降至16倍,該指數(shù)可能跌至3,600點(diǎn)。
市場(chǎng)將不得不決定這個(gè)新經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代的正確市盈率應(yīng)該是多少,但如果以史為鑒,情況可能會(huì)變得更糟。
但泰珀指出,2010年,在2008年大金融危機(jī)之后,當(dāng)利率接近零時(shí),標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的市盈率約為12倍。因此,以目前的利率水平,該指數(shù)目前的市盈率有可能大幅下跌。
"這就是目前股市存在的問題。市盈率應(yīng)該是多少呢?"泰珀說。
隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)繼續(xù)加息,股市還面臨另一大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
泰珀說:“他們(美聯(lián)儲(chǔ))不能這樣說,但可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)某種形式的小幅經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
如今,大衛(wèi)·泰珀最為人所知的身份可能是美國(guó)職業(yè)橄欖球大聯(lián)盟卡羅萊納黑豹隊(duì)的老板。但在成為卡羅萊納黑豹隊(duì)的老板之前,這位億萬(wàn)富翁以對(duì)沖基金巨頭的身份揚(yáng)名。
泰珀在高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)擔(dān)任信貸分析師,在磨練技能后,他于1993年創(chuàng)立了Appaloosa Management公司,并以在別人恐慌時(shí)進(jìn)行高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投注而聞名。2009年大金融危機(jī)后,Appaloosa Management公司通過大肆收購(gòu)遭受重創(chuàng)的銀行股,賺了70億美元,一舉得名。
但在周四,泰珀——他仍然認(rèn)為自己是“樂觀主義者”——透露他在做空股市。這位對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理表示,各國(guó)央行將繼續(xù)加息以抑制通脹,這對(duì)股價(jià)來(lái)說是個(gè)壞消息。
“所以我可能會(huì)說,我傾向于做空股市?!彼谡劦阶隹展墒袝r(shí)對(duì)美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司財(cái)經(jīng)頻道(CNBC)表示?!耙?yàn)槲艺J(rèn)為,當(dāng)有這么多央行告訴我他們將要做什么的時(shí)候,上行/下行對(duì)我來(lái)說就沒有意義了?!?
根據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的數(shù)據(jù),全球許多央行在2022年大舉加息,希望以此來(lái)遏制全球通脹。全球通脹率從2020年初的3.2%飆升至目前的8.8%。
在美國(guó),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年已連續(xù)七次加息,累計(jì)加息4.25%,為1980年以來(lái)的最高水平。
泰珀表示,盡管批評(píng)人士一致認(rèn)為央行應(yīng)該放緩或暫停加息,但他認(rèn)為官員們將繼續(xù)專注于抗擊通脹。
“你必須相信他們?!彼f?!拔艺J(rèn)為他們擔(dān)心的是3.5%、3.75%、4%的頑固通脹率?!?/p>
華爾街的一些領(lǐng)軍人物表示擔(dān)心,明年的通脹率可能不會(huì)降到央行設(shè)定的2%的目標(biāo)。劍橋大學(xué)皇后學(xué)院院長(zhǎng)穆罕默德·埃爾-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)上個(gè)月表示,由于工資上漲、供應(yīng)鏈問題和 "全球化出現(xiàn)的變化",通脹可能會(huì)"卡"在一個(gè)令人不安的高水平上。
在利率上升的環(huán)境下,泰珀質(zhì)疑標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的市盈率是否合理。
市盈率倍數(shù),或市盈率,是投資者評(píng)估股票價(jià)值的一種方式,或者在這種情況下,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)是基于公司收益進(jìn)行估值的。此外,由于利率上升會(huì)影響收益,利率上升時(shí)期,股票的市盈率往往較低。
“為什么我們?cè)诶蕿?%的時(shí)候,仍然會(huì)有那樣高的市盈率?我必須給出符合市場(chǎng)實(shí)際的市盈率?!碧╃曛芩谋硎尽?/p>
目前標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的市盈率約為17.8倍,為3,800點(diǎn),但泰珀指出,如果這一數(shù)字在未來(lái)一年略微下降至16倍,該指數(shù)可能跌至3,600點(diǎn)。
市場(chǎng)將不得不決定這個(gè)新經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代的正確市盈率應(yīng)該是多少,但如果以史為鑒,情況可能會(huì)變得更糟。
但泰珀指出,2010年,在2008年大金融危機(jī)之后,當(dāng)利率接近零時(shí),標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的市盈率約為12倍。因此,以目前的利率水平,該指數(shù)目前的市盈率有可能大幅下跌。
"這就是目前股市存在的問題。市盈率應(yīng)該是多少呢?"泰珀說。
隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)繼續(xù)加息,股市還面臨另一大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
泰珀說:“他們(美聯(lián)儲(chǔ))不能這樣說,但可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)某種形式的小幅經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
These days, David Tepper is probably best known as the owner of the NFL’s Carolina Panthers. But before his time in the owner’s suite, the billionaire made his name as a hedge fund titan.
Tepper founded Appaloosa Management in 1993 after honing his skills as a credit analyst at Goldman Sachs, and has been known to make risky bets when others are fearful. Appaloosa famously made $7 billion by gobbling up beaten down bank stocks in 2009 after the Great Financial Crisis.
But on Thursday, Tepper—who said he still considers himself “an optimist”—revealed that he’s betting against the stock market. The hedge funder said that central banks will continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, and that’s bad news for equity prices.
“So I would probably say I’m leaning short on the equity markets,” he told CNBC, referring to short-selling. “Because I think the upside/downside just doesn’t make sense to me when I have so many central banks telling me what they are going to do.”
Many central banks worldwide have aggressively hiked interest rates in 2022 in hopes of taming global inflation, which spiked from 3.2% in the beginning of 2020 to 8.8% today, according to the International Monetary Fund.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates seven times this year, amounting to a 4.25% total jump—the most in a year since 1980.
Tepper said that despite the chorus of critics arguing central banks should slow or pause their rate hikes, he believes officials will continue to focus on fighting inflation.
“You have to believe them,” he said. “I think they’re worried about that inflation rate that’s going to be stubborn at 3.5%, 3.75%, 4%.”
A number of leading minds on Wall Street have expressed concern that inflation might not fall to central banks’ 2% targets next year. Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, said last month that inflation could get “stuck” at an uncomfortably high number because of rising wages, supply-chain issues, and a “change in globalization.”
In this rising interest rate environment, Tepper questioned whether the S&P 500 is trading at an earnings multiple that makes sense.
Earnings multiples, or price-to-earnings ratios, are a way for investors to value stocks—or in this case an index like the S&P 500—based on corporate earnings. And since rising interest rates can weigh on earnings, periods with higher rates tend to have lower earnings multiples for stocks.
“Why are we still putting these high multiples like when I had 1% rates? I have to put multiples that are realistic to the market,” Tepper said on Thursday.
Today, the S&P 500 is trading at around 17.8 times earnings at 3,800, but Tepper noted that if that figure fell just slightly to 16 times in the coming year, the index could drop to 3,600.
The market will have to decide what the correct earnings multiple should be for this new economic era, but if history is any guide, the situation could get even worse.
But Tepper pointed out that in 2010, the S&P 500 was trading at roughly 12 times earnings when interest rates were near zero after the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. So with today’s interest rates, there is potential for the index’s current multiple to drop sharply.
“So that’s the question of the stock market right now. What should be the multiple?” Tepper said.
And with the Federal Reserve continuing to raise rates, stocks also face another risk.
“They [the Federal Reserve] can’t say it, but maybe there will be a small recession of some sort,” Tepper said.