科技初創(chuàng)公司喜歡把自己的成功描述為適者生存。但即便是某一物種的弱者也能夠在富饒的環(huán)境中生存下來。如今,隨著資金枯竭和商業(yè)環(huán)境變得日益嚴(yán)峻,創(chuàng)業(yè)顧問薩姆·王說,創(chuàng)始人必須磨練新技能,否則企業(yè)就會(huì)消亡。
為了闡明自己的觀點(diǎn),他引用了19世紀(jì)的作家拉迪亞德·吉卜林的短篇小說《瑞奇-提奇-嗒喂》(Rikki-Tikki-Tavi),故事中的獴為了保持力量和敏捷性,控制自己不吃飽飯。
同樣的教訓(xùn)也適用于初創(chuàng)公司?!秳?chuàng)業(yè)成功的21個(gè)秘密》(21 Secrets of Successful Startups)一書的作者王告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“保持饑餓而不是像肥貓一樣感到舒適是有一定價(jià)值的?!?/p>
“檢驗(yàn)一家公司成功與否的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不是‘我能否在2020年和2021年獲得持續(xù)增長的估值和更多輪融資?’因?yàn)檫^去,所有人都只注重估值和融資。這要容易得多?!蓖跽f?!昂饬恳患夜境晒εc否的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是,你如何在困難時(shí)期生存下來?”
這是整個(gè)硅谷創(chuàng)始人都在迎接的考驗(yàn)。隨著利率飆升和俄烏沖突擾亂市場(chǎng),曾經(jīng)在硅谷自由流動(dòng)的資金急劇放緩。
GoPuff、Patreon和Instacart等曾經(jīng)風(fēng)靡一時(shí)的初創(chuàng)公司的估值已經(jīng)從新冠疫情時(shí)期的高值大幅下跌。而像Snyk、Patreon和Twilio這樣的公司已經(jīng)裁員以削減成本。
王在過去20年里曾經(jīng)在多家初創(chuàng)公司工作過,其中包括被思科(Cisco)收購的數(shù)據(jù)中心管理公司Cloupia。他于2022年在科技網(wǎng)站TechCrunch組織的舊金山會(huì)議上與焦慮的初創(chuàng)公司員工進(jìn)行了交談。在后來接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí),他分享了自己對(duì)初創(chuàng)公司的一些建議。
王表示,初創(chuàng)公司需要開發(fā)一種穩(wěn)健的財(cái)務(wù)模型,可以根據(jù)不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況進(jìn)行調(diào)整。他提出了四個(gè)等級(jí):激進(jìn)的、溫和的、保守的和應(yīng)對(duì)災(zāi)難的。
“大多數(shù)創(chuàng)始人創(chuàng)建的財(cái)務(wù)模型只是為了在融資演講稿幻燈片里填寫所需內(nèi)容。一旦他們籌集到資金,他們就再也不會(huì)看這個(gè)模型了。”王說,“聰明的創(chuàng)始人明白要積極主動(dòng)地利用財(cái)務(wù)模型?!?/p>
王認(rèn)為,在公司裁員的時(shí)候,專注于組建合適的團(tuán)隊(duì)尤為重要。高瞻遠(yuǎn)矚的人才戰(zhàn)略會(huì)帶來優(yōu)秀的團(tuán)隊(duì),這樣團(tuán)隊(duì)執(zhí)行力就會(huì)變強(qiáng),從而有助于公司實(shí)現(xiàn)融資。
“每個(gè)人都在口頭上支持團(tuán)隊(duì)建設(shè);但很少有人在這方面投資?!蓖跽f?!拔乙娺^雄心勃勃的創(chuàng)業(yè)想法,但團(tuán)隊(duì)成員資質(zhì)平平,導(dǎo)致創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗,我也見過公司很平庸,但有非常出色的團(tuán)隊(duì),從而創(chuàng)業(yè)成功的案例?!?/p>
減少噪音
源于2008年上一次全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的硅谷流行說法是,最好的初創(chuàng)公司都是在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期成立的。愛彼迎(Airbnb)和Square通常被譽(yù)為經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期的創(chuàng)新巔峰,因?yàn)檫@兩家久經(jīng)考驗(yàn)的初創(chuàng)公司足夠靈活,能夠在上一次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中幸存下來。
樂觀的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家經(jīng)常重復(fù)這句格言。然而,這可能更像是一廂情愿,而非現(xiàn)實(shí)。是的,巨大的動(dòng)蕩帶來巨大的機(jī)遇,這在一定程度上是事實(shí),但王表示,這并不意味著該公司正在進(jìn)行徹底變革。
“這可能是因?yàn)楦?jìng)爭(zhēng)減少了?!蓖跽f。“而那些實(shí)力雄厚且將脫穎而出的公司只會(huì)因?yàn)楦?jìng)爭(zhēng)者減少而更加突出。我是否認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退一定會(huì)造就卓越的公司?我不這么認(rèn)為,它只是減少了噪音而已。”
很容易就可以找到企業(yè)消亡的例子。一鍵支付初創(chuàng)公司Fast就是一個(gè)特別好的例子,這家公司“像喝醉的水手一樣”花錢如流水,最終不得不在4月倒閉。另一個(gè)例子是電動(dòng)汽車制造商Canoo,該公司于2020年年底上市,5月表示“嚴(yán)重懷疑”其是否能夠繼續(xù)運(yùn)營下去。
據(jù)王表示,這是一次必要的市場(chǎng)修正。他警告道,那些花光了現(xiàn)金、沒有為經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期做好準(zhǔn)備的公司將被淘汰出局。那些未能為最壞的情況做好準(zhǔn)備,也沒有使用全面的財(cái)務(wù)模型盡其所能地保存現(xiàn)金的公司,很可能也無法在經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期幸存下來。
“在風(fēng)投界,已經(jīng)有三到五年的狂熱繁榮了?!蓖跽f?!拔艺J(rèn)為出現(xiàn)這樣的修正是好事。希望創(chuàng)始人可以意識(shí)到,這不僅僅是簽訂下一份投資條款清單的問題,而是要打造一家卓越的公司。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
科技初創(chuàng)公司喜歡把自己的成功描述為適者生存。但即便是某一物種的弱者也能夠在富饒的環(huán)境中生存下來。如今,隨著資金枯竭和商業(yè)環(huán)境變得日益嚴(yán)峻,創(chuàng)業(yè)顧問薩姆·王說,創(chuàng)始人必須磨練新技能,否則企業(yè)就會(huì)消亡。
為了闡明自己的觀點(diǎn),他引用了19世紀(jì)的作家拉迪亞德·吉卜林的短篇小說《瑞奇-提奇-嗒喂》(Rikki-Tikki-Tavi),故事中的獴為了保持力量和敏捷性,控制自己不吃飽飯。
同樣的教訓(xùn)也適用于初創(chuàng)公司?!秳?chuàng)業(yè)成功的21個(gè)秘密》(21 Secrets of Successful Startups)一書的作者王告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“保持饑餓而不是像肥貓一樣感到舒適是有一定價(jià)值的?!?/p>
“檢驗(yàn)一家公司成功與否的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不是‘我能否在2020年和2021年獲得持續(xù)增長的估值和更多輪融資?’因?yàn)檫^去,所有人都只注重估值和融資。這要容易得多?!蓖跽f?!昂饬恳患夜境晒εc否的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是,你如何在困難時(shí)期生存下來?”
這是整個(gè)硅谷創(chuàng)始人都在迎接的考驗(yàn)。隨著利率飆升和俄烏沖突擾亂市場(chǎng),曾經(jīng)在硅谷自由流動(dòng)的資金急劇放緩。
GoPuff、Patreon和Instacart等曾經(jīng)風(fēng)靡一時(shí)的初創(chuàng)公司的估值已經(jīng)從新冠疫情時(shí)期的高值大幅下跌。而像Snyk、Patreon和Twilio這樣的公司已經(jīng)裁員以削減成本。
王在過去20年里曾經(jīng)在多家初創(chuàng)公司工作過,其中包括被思科(Cisco)收購的數(shù)據(jù)中心管理公司Cloupia。他于2022年在科技網(wǎng)站TechCrunch組織的舊金山會(huì)議上與焦慮的初創(chuàng)公司員工進(jìn)行了交談。在后來接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí),他分享了自己對(duì)初創(chuàng)公司的一些建議。
王表示,初創(chuàng)公司需要開發(fā)一種穩(wěn)健的財(cái)務(wù)模型,可以根據(jù)不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況進(jìn)行調(diào)整。他提出了四個(gè)等級(jí):激進(jìn)的、溫和的、保守的和應(yīng)對(duì)災(zāi)難的。
“大多數(shù)創(chuàng)始人創(chuàng)建的財(cái)務(wù)模型只是為了在融資演講稿幻燈片里填寫所需內(nèi)容。一旦他們籌集到資金,他們就再也不會(huì)看這個(gè)模型了?!蓖跽f,“聰明的創(chuàng)始人明白要積極主動(dòng)地利用財(cái)務(wù)模型?!?/p>
王認(rèn)為,在公司裁員的時(shí)候,專注于組建合適的團(tuán)隊(duì)尤為重要。高瞻遠(yuǎn)矚的人才戰(zhàn)略會(huì)帶來優(yōu)秀的團(tuán)隊(duì),這樣團(tuán)隊(duì)執(zhí)行力就會(huì)變強(qiáng),從而有助于公司實(shí)現(xiàn)融資。
“每個(gè)人都在口頭上支持團(tuán)隊(duì)建設(shè);但很少有人在這方面投資?!蓖跽f?!拔乙娺^雄心勃勃的創(chuàng)業(yè)想法,但團(tuán)隊(duì)成員資質(zhì)平平,導(dǎo)致創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗,我也見過公司很平庸,但有非常出色的團(tuán)隊(duì),從而創(chuàng)業(yè)成功的案例?!?/p>
減少噪音
源于2008年上一次全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的硅谷流行說法是,最好的初創(chuàng)公司都是在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期成立的。愛彼迎(Airbnb)和Square通常被譽(yù)為經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期的創(chuàng)新巔峰,因?yàn)檫@兩家久經(jīng)考驗(yàn)的初創(chuàng)公司足夠靈活,能夠在上一次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中幸存下來。
樂觀的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家經(jīng)常重復(fù)這句格言。然而,這可能更像是一廂情愿,而非現(xiàn)實(shí)。是的,巨大的動(dòng)蕩帶來巨大的機(jī)遇,這在一定程度上是事實(shí),但王表示,這并不意味著該公司正在進(jìn)行徹底變革。
“這可能是因?yàn)楦?jìng)爭(zhēng)減少了?!蓖跽f?!岸切?shí)力雄厚且將脫穎而出的公司只會(huì)因?yàn)楦?jìng)爭(zhēng)者減少而更加突出。我是否認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退一定會(huì)造就卓越的公司?我不這么認(rèn)為,它只是減少了噪音而已。”
很容易就可以找到企業(yè)消亡的例子。一鍵支付初創(chuàng)公司Fast就是一個(gè)特別好的例子,這家公司“像喝醉的水手一樣”花錢如流水,最終不得不在4月倒閉。另一個(gè)例子是電動(dòng)汽車制造商Canoo,該公司于2020年年底上市,5月表示“嚴(yán)重懷疑”其是否能夠繼續(xù)運(yùn)營下去。
據(jù)王表示,這是一次必要的市場(chǎng)修正。他警告道,那些花光了現(xiàn)金、沒有為經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期做好準(zhǔn)備的公司將被淘汰出局。那些未能為最壞的情況做好準(zhǔn)備,也沒有使用全面的財(cái)務(wù)模型盡其所能地保存現(xiàn)金的公司,很可能也無法在經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期幸存下來。
“在風(fēng)投界,已經(jīng)有三到五年的狂熱繁榮了?!蓖跽f?!拔艺J(rèn)為出現(xiàn)這樣的修正是好事。希望創(chuàng)始人可以意識(shí)到,這不僅僅是簽訂下一份投資條款清單的問題,而是要打造一家卓越的公司?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Tech startups love to depict their success as the survival of the fittest. But even the weakest member of a species can survive in a bountiful environment. Now, as funding dries up and business conditions get harsh, startup adviser Sam Wong says founders must hone new skills—or perish.
To illustrate his point, he turns to a 19th-century short story by Rudyard Kipling called “Rikki-Tikki-Tavi,” in which a mongoose refrains from eating a full meal so as to preserve its strength and agility.
The same lesson applies to startups. “There is some value to staying hungry instead of feeling comfortable like a fat cat,” Wong, the author of the book 21 Secrets of Successful Startups, told Fortune.
“The test of a good company is not ‘Can I get continually increasing valuations and more rounds of funding in 2020 and 2021?’, because everybody was. It was much, much easier,” Wong said. “The measure of a good company is, how do you survive when it’s hard?”
It’s a test founders throughout Silicon Valley are bracing for. Funding that once flowed freely through Silicon Valley has slowed sharply, as interest rates jump and the war in Ukraine rattles the markets.
Once-high-flying startups like GoPuff, Patreon, and Instacart have seen their valuations take a tumble from their pandemic peaks. And companies like Snyk, Patreon, and Twilio have laid off staff to cut costs.
Wong, who has worked at several startups over the past two decades including Cloupia, a data center management firm that was acquired by Cisco, recently spoke to anxious startup employees at a San Francisco conference organized by the tech site TechCrunch. He shared some of his advice for startups in a later conversation with Fortune.
According to Wong, startups need to develop a robust financial model that can be adjusted for different economic conditions. He suggests four levels: aggressive, moderate, conservative, and disastrous.
“Most founders only create a financial model to fill in a required slide on their pitch deck. Once they’ve raised funds, they never look at the model again,” Wong said. “Smart founders know to leverage the financial model proactively.”
And at a time when companies are laying off staff, Wong says, focusing on having the right team in place is especially important. A great talent strategy leads to great teams, which drives great execution, which results in a fundable company.
“Everybody pays lip service to the team aspect; very few people invest in it,” Wong said. “I have seen great startup ideas with mediocre teams fail, and I’ve seen mediocre companies with fantastic teams succeed.”
Thinning out the noise
A Silicon Valley trope, originating from the last global recession in 2008, is that the best startups are founded in a recession. Airbnb and Square are commonly hailed as the pinnacle of innovation in a downturn because the battle-hardened startups were nimble enough to survive the last economic crash.
Optimistic venture capitalists frequently repeat this adage; yet it may be more wishful thinking than reality. Yes, there is some truth that with great turmoil comes great opportunity, but Wong says that doesn’t mean the company is doing something revolutionary.
“It just might be that’s because there’s less competition,” Wong said. “And the companies that are strong and are going to make it just stand out more because the crowd is thinner. Do I necessarily think that a recession creates great companies? No, it just thins out the noise.”
Evidence of the uprooting is already easy to find. One-click-checkout startup Fast was a particularly good example of a company that spent cash “l(fā)ike drunken sailors” and ultimately had to shut down in April. Another instance is electric car manufacturer Canoo, which went public in late 2020, stating in May that it had “substantial doubt” about its capacity to continue operating.
According to Wong, this is a necessary market correction. The companies that burned through their cash and failed to prepare for the downturn are going to be weeded out, he warns. Those who fail to prepare for the worst-case scenario, and don’t conserve cash as diligently as possible using thorough financial models, likely will not survive the downturn either.
“In the venture community, it’s been three to five years of wild exuberance,” Wong said. “I think having a correction like this is good. Hopefully, founders will realize that it’s not just about closing the next term sheet. It’s about building a great company.”