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美國(guó)人已經(jīng)對(duì)今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)、工作和其他一切都感到悲觀了

Trey Williams
2023-01-12

蓋洛普對(duì)1,800多名美國(guó)成年人進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)新民意調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),80%的受訪者預(yù)計(jì)2023年還將是經(jīng)濟(jì)困難年,稅收將增加,預(yù)算赤字也將增加。

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美國(guó)人對(duì)2023年的前景感到悲觀。圖片來(lái)源:DNY59—GETTY IMAGES

艾薩克·牛頓爵士沒(méi)有說(shuō)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行狀態(tài)會(huì)一直持續(xù)下去,但這并不能阻止美國(guó)人對(duì)此深信不疑。

在經(jīng)歷了過(guò)去幾年精神上的折磨、社會(huì)政治上和經(jīng)濟(jì)上的動(dòng)蕩之后,很難責(zé)怪人們?cè)谵o舊迎新之際對(duì)前景感到悲觀,而在傳統(tǒng)上,新年象征著新的開(kāi)始,本該是充滿希望的時(shí)候。但蓋洛普(Gallup)對(duì)1,800多名美國(guó)成年人進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)新民意調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),80%的受訪者預(yù)計(jì)2023年還將是經(jīng)濟(jì)困難年,稅收將增加,預(yù)算赤字也將增加。

蓋洛普的研究顧問(wèn)梅根·布雷南寫(xiě)道:“美國(guó)人對(duì)2023年的前景持懷疑態(tài)度,幾乎不指望2022年年底的經(jīng)濟(jì)困境會(huì)緩解。鑒于共和黨贏得美國(guó)眾議院控制權(quán)后,2023年將出現(xiàn)政府分裂,因此,在美國(guó)成年人中,很少有人預(yù)測(cè)困擾國(guó)家的黨派政治會(huì)有所改善,這樣的預(yù)期合情合理?!?/p>

2022年,對(duì)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高通脹水平的擔(dān)憂,以及對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來(lái)的持續(xù)談?wù)?,主?dǎo)了大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)話。這種經(jīng)濟(jì)困境只會(huì)加劇美國(guó)人對(duì)新冠疫情的持續(xù)焦慮,加劇種族主義情緒,強(qiáng)化種族偏見(jiàn),還會(huì)導(dǎo)致心理健康問(wèn)題和孤立主義心態(tài)加劇。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)在2022年大舉加息,以抑制通貨膨脹,這是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)人在買(mǎi)房、加油、雜貨店或在其他日用品上消費(fèi)過(guò)高。

但這也是引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退擔(dān)憂的部分原因。許多美國(guó)人似乎并不認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的策略行之有效。蓋洛普的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,超過(guò)六成的美國(guó)成年人認(rèn)為,2023年物價(jià)仍然將會(huì)飛速上漲,股市將繼續(xù)下跌(盡管通脹已經(jīng)在緩慢消退)。超過(guò)一半的美國(guó)人預(yù)計(jì)失業(yè)率將在2023年上升,這還沒(méi)有演化成一個(gè)令人擔(dān)憂的問(wèn)題,因?yàn)楸M管裁員,科技行業(yè)尤甚,但員工們?nèi)匀辉诔膳剞o職,使得勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩。

美國(guó)人不只是對(duì)他們的銀行賬戶和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)感到悲觀。90%的受訪者表示,他們預(yù)計(jì)2023年美國(guó)將爆發(fā)更多的政治沖突;凱文·麥卡錫成為美國(guó)眾議院議長(zhǎng),而美國(guó)眾議院在年后一周內(nèi)出現(xiàn)了前所未有的混亂局面,這樣的跡象足以表明他們的預(yù)測(cè)是站得住腳的。

此外,超過(guò)70%的人認(rèn)為犯罪率將會(huì)上升,56%的人預(yù)測(cè)工會(huì)將會(huì)組織“許多”罷工。

如果這還不夠沮喪的話,國(guó)際上的預(yù)測(cè)也同樣悲觀。85%的美國(guó)成年人預(yù)測(cè),2023年國(guó)際社會(huì)和平不再,將爆發(fā)更多國(guó)際爭(zhēng)端。然而,振奮人心的是64%的美國(guó)人預(yù)計(jì)俄羅斯的實(shí)力會(huì)下降,蓋洛普指出,這可能反映了該國(guó)最近在俄烏沖突中遭受的挫折。

無(wú)論2023年的實(shí)際情況如何,毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)的是,自2020年新冠疫情開(kāi)始以來(lái),持續(xù)的挫折和炮火沖擊嚴(yán)重影響了美國(guó)人,他們?cè)?jīng)對(duì)興旺的21世紀(jì)20年代充滿希望。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

艾薩克·牛頓爵士沒(méi)有說(shuō)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行狀態(tài)會(huì)一直持續(xù)下去,但這并不能阻止美國(guó)人對(duì)此深信不疑。

在經(jīng)歷了過(guò)去幾年精神上的折磨、社會(huì)政治上和經(jīng)濟(jì)上的動(dòng)蕩之后,很難責(zé)怪人們?cè)谵o舊迎新之際對(duì)前景感到悲觀,而在傳統(tǒng)上,新年象征著新的開(kāi)始,本該是充滿希望的時(shí)候。但蓋洛普(Gallup)對(duì)1,800多名美國(guó)成年人進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)新民意調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),80%的受訪者預(yù)計(jì)2023年還將是經(jīng)濟(jì)困難年,稅收將增加,預(yù)算赤字也將增加。

蓋洛普的研究顧問(wèn)梅根·布雷南寫(xiě)道:“美國(guó)人對(duì)2023年的前景持懷疑態(tài)度,幾乎不指望2022年年底的經(jīng)濟(jì)困境會(huì)緩解。鑒于共和黨贏得美國(guó)眾議院控制權(quán)后,2023年將出現(xiàn)政府分裂,因此,在美國(guó)成年人中,很少有人預(yù)測(cè)困擾國(guó)家的黨派政治會(huì)有所改善,這樣的預(yù)期合情合理?!?/p>

2022年,對(duì)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高通脹水平的擔(dān)憂,以及對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來(lái)的持續(xù)談?wù)摚鲗?dǎo)了大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)話。這種經(jīng)濟(jì)困境只會(huì)加劇美國(guó)人對(duì)新冠疫情的持續(xù)焦慮,加劇種族主義情緒,強(qiáng)化種族偏見(jiàn),還會(huì)導(dǎo)致心理健康問(wèn)題和孤立主義心態(tài)加劇。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)在2022年大舉加息,以抑制通貨膨脹,這是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)人在買(mǎi)房、加油、雜貨店或在其他日用品上消費(fèi)過(guò)高。

但這也是引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退擔(dān)憂的部分原因。許多美國(guó)人似乎并不認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的策略行之有效。蓋洛普的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,超過(guò)六成的美國(guó)成年人認(rèn)為,2023年物價(jià)仍然將會(huì)飛速上漲,股市將繼續(xù)下跌(盡管通脹已經(jīng)在緩慢消退)。超過(guò)一半的美國(guó)人預(yù)計(jì)失業(yè)率將在2023年上升,這還沒(méi)有演化成一個(gè)令人擔(dān)憂的問(wèn)題,因?yàn)楸M管裁員,科技行業(yè)尤甚,但員工們?nèi)匀辉诔膳剞o職,使得勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩。

美國(guó)人不只是對(duì)他們的銀行賬戶和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)感到悲觀。90%的受訪者表示,他們預(yù)計(jì)2023年美國(guó)將爆發(fā)更多的政治沖突;凱文·麥卡錫成為美國(guó)眾議院議長(zhǎng),而美國(guó)眾議院在年后一周內(nèi)出現(xiàn)了前所未有的混亂局面,這樣的跡象足以表明他們的預(yù)測(cè)是站得住腳的。

此外,超過(guò)70%的人認(rèn)為犯罪率將會(huì)上升,56%的人預(yù)測(cè)工會(huì)將會(huì)組織“許多”罷工。

如果這還不夠沮喪的話,國(guó)際上的預(yù)測(cè)也同樣悲觀。85%的美國(guó)成年人預(yù)測(cè),2023年國(guó)際社會(huì)和平不再,將爆發(fā)更多國(guó)際爭(zhēng)端。然而,振奮人心的是64%的美國(guó)人預(yù)計(jì)俄羅斯的實(shí)力會(huì)下降,蓋洛普指出,這可能反映了該國(guó)最近在俄烏沖突中遭受的挫折。

無(wú)論2023年的實(shí)際情況如何,毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)的是,自2020年新冠疫情開(kāi)始以來(lái),持續(xù)的挫折和炮火沖擊嚴(yán)重影響了美國(guó)人,他們?cè)?jīng)對(duì)興旺的21世紀(jì)20年代充滿希望。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

Sir Issac Newton didn’t necessarily say that an economy in downward motion stays in downward motion, but that won’t stop Americans from believing it.

After a tumultuous last few years mentally, sociopolitically, and economically, it would be tough to blame people for not feeling too optimistic entering the new year, which is traditionally a time for hope and a fresh start. But a new poll from Gallup, which surveyed more than 1,800 American adults, found that eight out of 10 respondents expect 2023 to be another year of economic difficulty, with higher taxes and an increased budget deficit.

“Americans are greeting 2023 with great skepticism and little expectation that the economic struggles that closed out 2022 will abate,” Gallup research consultant Megan Brenan wrote. “Few U.S. adults also predict the partisan politics that plague the nation will improve, not an unreasonable expectation given that there will be divided government in 2023 after Republicans won control of the U.S. House of Representatives.”

Concerns around record-high levels of inflation and continued talk of a looming recession dominated much of the economic discourse last year. Such money woes are only adding to Americans’ ongoing anxiety over COVID, heightened racism and bigotry, and mental health and isolationism.

The Federal Reserve scrambled in 2022 to raise interest rates in an attempt to tamp down inflation as Americans shelled out more money to buy homes, fill gas tanks, run to the grocery store, or splurge on other everyday items.

But that’s partly what’s sparking recession fears. And many Americans don’t seem to think the Fed’s strategy will be effective. According to Gallup, more than six in 10 adult Americans think prices will still rise at a high rate and that the stock market will continue to fall in 2023 (although inflation has been slowly ebbing). And just over half of Americans expect unemployment to increase in 2023, which hasn’t yet been a concern as workers continue to quit jobs in droves despite layoffs, particularly in tech, rattling the workforce.

Americans aren’t just grim about their bank accounts and the workforce. Ninety percent of respondents surveyed said they expect 2023 to be a year of more political conflict in the U.S.; if the unprecedented mess unfolding in the U.S. House of Representatives with Speaker Kevin McCarthy is any indication a week into the year, their prediction holds water.

In addition to that, more than 70% think the crime rate will rise, and 56% predict there will be “many” labor strikes by unions.

If you’re not yet sufficiently bummed out, predictions internationally are similarly pessimistic. Eighty-five percent of U.S. adults are forecasting a 2023 fraught with international discord rather than peace. A bright spot, however, are the 64% of Americans who expect Russia’s power to decrease, which Gallup points to a likely reflection of the country’s recent setbacks in its war against Ukraine.

Whatever 2023 actually holds, the continual setbacks and shell shocks since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 sure have significantly impacted the roaring 2020s Americans by and large were once hopeful for.

財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)為財(cái)富媒體知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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