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經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退大背景下,哪些行業(yè)最有可能裁員

Megan Leonhardt
2023-01-23

想要更高的職業(yè)安全感?你所在的行業(yè)未來(lái)可能發(fā)生巨大變化。

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圖片來(lái)源:CATHERINE FALLS COMMERCIAL/GETTY IMAGES

被裁員當(dāng)然很糟糕。然而當(dāng)前,在某些行業(yè)被裁員的幾率可能大幅提高。經(jīng)濟(jì)下行,經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退正在迫近,但并非所有行業(yè)都會(huì)受到同樣程度的影響。

最近,多家大型科技公司宣布裁員,并因此登上了媒體頭條。但在過(guò)去六個(gè)月,大規(guī)模裁員的情況依舊相對(duì)較少。

有些行業(yè)確實(shí)經(jīng)歷了裁員,裁員率是其他行業(yè)的近三倍。美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,尤其是藝術(shù)與休閑娛樂(lè)行業(yè),從2022年6月至11月的平均裁員率為3.1%。這相當(dāng)于每個(gè)月平均裁員人數(shù)約為72,000人。

裁員情況最嚴(yán)重的行業(yè)包括建筑、職業(yè)和商務(wù)服務(wù)(包括會(huì)計(jì)、工程和計(jì)算機(jī)服務(wù)等崗位)以及信息行業(yè)。信息行業(yè)涵蓋了出版、傳媒、電信和數(shù)據(jù)處理等領(lǐng)域。

科技業(yè)裁員備受關(guān)注,但這些崗位被分散到職業(yè)和商務(wù)服務(wù)以及信息行業(yè)。雖然按照美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù),這些行業(yè)的裁員率上升,但上升幅度并不嚴(yán)重。Indeed Hiring Lab的北美區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究總監(jiān)尼克·邦克對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“裁員率小幅上漲的部分原因,可能是一些非科技公司被包含在該行業(yè)當(dāng)中,而這些公司在裁員方面的表現(xiàn)更好?!?/p>

許多科技公司通常還會(huì)提前幾周通知,并且提供六個(gè)月的離職補(bǔ)償金。這意味著與裁員有關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)滯后,等到這些被裁員工從公司的工資單中消失后才會(huì)有所體現(xiàn)。所以,雖然我們知道這些裁員,但他們可能尚未在數(shù)據(jù)中有所體現(xiàn)。

裁員人數(shù)依舊相對(duì)較低。邦克以建筑行業(yè)為例稱(chēng):“雖然在統(tǒng)計(jì)期限內(nèi),許多行業(yè)的裁員率高于其他行業(yè),但許多行業(yè)的裁員率實(shí)際上低于新冠疫情之前的水平?!边^(guò)去六個(gè)月,建筑行業(yè)的平均裁員率為1.8%,是經(jīng)濟(jì)整體綜合裁員率的兩倍以上。但這低于2019年2.9%的平均裁員率。

Outsource Accelerator 的首席執(zhí)行官及創(chuàng)始人德里克·加利莫爾表示,工作者在首次進(jìn)入就業(yè)市場(chǎng)或考慮更換職業(yè)時(shí),依舊應(yīng)該考慮各行業(yè)的相關(guān)就業(yè)穩(wěn)定性水平。

加利莫爾還說(shuō):“各行業(yè)的裁員率表面上乍一看差異較小,但我們發(fā)現(xiàn),藝術(shù)與休閑娛樂(lè)業(yè)的從業(yè)者被裁員的可能性,比聯(lián)邦政府雇員高13倍?!?/p>

在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退或經(jīng)濟(jì)下行時(shí)期,哪些行業(yè)更穩(wěn)定?領(lǐng)英(LinkedIn)發(fā)現(xiàn),公用事業(yè)、教育、消費(fèi)者服務(wù)甚至政府工作相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。

數(shù)據(jù)證明了這一點(diǎn)。在2022年下半年,即使面臨市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)、高通脹和經(jīng)濟(jì)困境,政府雇員的裁員和解雇比率依舊最低。

邦克指出,醫(yī)療保健也是今年就業(yè)最穩(wěn)定的行業(yè)。他說(shuō):“醫(yī)療保健是一個(gè)彈性行業(yè),因?yàn)橐环矫鎸?duì)醫(yī)療服務(wù)的長(zhǎng)期需求強(qiáng)勁,另一方面該領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)面臨人手不足的問(wèn)題?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

被裁員當(dāng)然很糟糕。然而當(dāng)前,在某些行業(yè)被裁員的幾率可能大幅提高。經(jīng)濟(jì)下行,經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退正在迫近,但并非所有行業(yè)都會(huì)受到同樣程度的影響。

最近,多家大型科技公司宣布裁員,并因此登上了媒體頭條。但在過(guò)去六個(gè)月,大規(guī)模裁員的情況依舊相對(duì)較少。

有些行業(yè)確實(shí)經(jīng)歷了裁員,裁員率是其他行業(yè)的近三倍。美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,尤其是藝術(shù)與休閑娛樂(lè)行業(yè),從2022年6月至11月的平均裁員率為3.1%。這相當(dāng)于每個(gè)月平均裁員人數(shù)約為72,000人。

裁員情況最嚴(yán)重的行業(yè)包括建筑、職業(yè)和商務(wù)服務(wù)(包括會(huì)計(jì)、工程和計(jì)算機(jī)服務(wù)等崗位)以及信息行業(yè)。信息行業(yè)涵蓋了出版、傳媒、電信和數(shù)據(jù)處理等領(lǐng)域。

科技業(yè)裁員備受關(guān)注,但這些崗位被分散到職業(yè)和商務(wù)服務(wù)以及信息行業(yè)。雖然按照美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù),這些行業(yè)的裁員率上升,但上升幅度并不嚴(yán)重。Indeed Hiring Lab的北美區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究總監(jiān)尼克·邦克對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“裁員率小幅上漲的部分原因,可能是一些非科技公司被包含在該行業(yè)當(dāng)中,而這些公司在裁員方面的表現(xiàn)更好?!?/p>

許多科技公司通常還會(huì)提前幾周通知,并且提供六個(gè)月的離職補(bǔ)償金。這意味著與裁員有關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)滯后,等到這些被裁員工從公司的工資單中消失后才會(huì)有所體現(xiàn)。所以,雖然我們知道這些裁員,但他們可能尚未在數(shù)據(jù)中有所體現(xiàn)。

裁員人數(shù)依舊相對(duì)較低。邦克以建筑行業(yè)為例稱(chēng):“雖然在統(tǒng)計(jì)期限內(nèi),許多行業(yè)的裁員率高于其他行業(yè),但許多行業(yè)的裁員率實(shí)際上低于新冠疫情之前的水平?!边^(guò)去六個(gè)月,建筑行業(yè)的平均裁員率為1.8%,是經(jīng)濟(jì)整體綜合裁員率的兩倍以上。但這低于2019年2.9%的平均裁員率。

Outsource Accelerator 的首席執(zhí)行官及創(chuàng)始人德里克·加利莫爾表示,工作者在首次進(jìn)入就業(yè)市場(chǎng)或考慮更換職業(yè)時(shí),依舊應(yīng)該考慮各行業(yè)的相關(guān)就業(yè)穩(wěn)定性水平。

加利莫爾還說(shuō):“各行業(yè)的裁員率表面上乍一看差異較小,但我們發(fā)現(xiàn),藝術(shù)與休閑娛樂(lè)業(yè)的從業(yè)者被裁員的可能性,比聯(lián)邦政府雇員高13倍?!?/p>

在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退或經(jīng)濟(jì)下行時(shí)期,哪些行業(yè)更穩(wěn)定?領(lǐng)英(LinkedIn)發(fā)現(xiàn),公用事業(yè)、教育、消費(fèi)者服務(wù)甚至政府工作相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。

數(shù)據(jù)證明了這一點(diǎn)。在2022年下半年,即使面臨市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)、高通脹和經(jīng)濟(jì)困境,政府雇員的裁員和解雇比率依舊最低。

邦克指出,醫(yī)療保健也是今年就業(yè)最穩(wěn)定的行業(yè)。他說(shuō):“醫(yī)療保健是一個(gè)彈性行業(yè),因?yàn)橐环矫鎸?duì)醫(yī)療服務(wù)的長(zhǎng)期需求強(qiáng)勁,另一方面該領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)面臨人手不足的問(wèn)題?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Getting laid off sucks. But the chances of it happening to you can increase depending on what industry you work in. And despite the looming threat of a recession, not all industries are impacted to the same degree during an economic downturn.

While the tech industry has made headlines with layoffs announced at several major companies recently, widespread layoffs still have remained relatively scarce over the last six months.

But other industries did experience layoffs—nearly triple the rate compared to others. The arts, entertainment, and recreation sector, in particular, had an average layoff rate of 3.1% from June to November 2022, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This adds up to an average of about 72,000 employees laid off per month.

The other top sectors for layoffs included construction, professional and business service—which includes jobs in accounting, engineering and computer services—and the information industry. That sector covers those working in publishing, media, and telecommunications, as well as data processing.

Tech layoffs have been very high-profile, but the jobs are spread across the professional and business services as well as information sectors. And while those industries have seen a rise in layoff rates recorded by the BLS, the spike hasn’t yet been severe. “Part of this shallow rise might be because other non-tech companies are included in this sector and are doing better on the layoff front,” Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, tells Fortune.

Many tech companies also typically provide several weeks of lead time and severance packages up to six months. That means the data around discharges may be delayed until after those employees exit the payroll. So while we know about the layoffs, they may not yet be appearing in the data.

Still, the number of layoffs is relatively low. “While the layoff rates in many of these industries are high compared to other industries during that time period, many of these rates are actually low compared to pre-pandemic years,” Bunker says, citing the construction industry as an example. Over the past six months, the average layoff rate in the construction sector was 1.8%, which is more than double the aggregate rate for the whole economy. But that's less than the 2.9% average layoff rate in 2019: 2.9%.

Yet workers should still consider the level of job stability associated with each industry when entering the job market for the first time or considering a change of career, says Derek Gallimore, CEO and founder of Outsource Accelerator.

“While the difference between the percentages may at first appear small, we found that those in the arts, entertainment, and recreation industry are actually 13 times more likely to be laid off than those working for the federal government,” Gallimore adds.

So what industries tend to be more stable, even in a recession or economic downturn? LinkedIn has found that sectors like utilities, education, consumer services, and even government jobs tend to be fairly stable.

The data bears that out. Even with the market volatility, high inflation, and economic hardships during the second half of 2022, government employees saw the lowest rate of layoffs and discharges.

Health care may also be a more stable sector as well this year, Bunker says. “Health care has been a resilient sector due in part to the strong long-term demand for health services and already tight staffing in the field,” he says.

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