幾個(gè)月來(lái),專家們一直在爭(zhēng)論“軟著陸”的可能性,即美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在不引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的情況下減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)以降低通脹。
這一想法勢(shì)必會(huì)帶來(lái)一些痛苦,但會(huì)避免經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退引發(fā)的更嚴(yán)重的衰退,比如股市暴跌和經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯。
但一位策略師認(rèn)為,經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退并不那么糟糕。事實(shí)上,今年即使沒(méi)有經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,股市也可能陷入困境。
摩根大通策略師邁克·貝爾(Mike Bell)周二對(duì)彭博電視臺(tái)表示:“實(shí)際上我認(rèn)為,市場(chǎng)面臨的最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是2023年沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退?!?/p>
他說(shuō),如果不出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,員工工資將繼續(xù)上漲,并迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在今年下半年繼續(xù)加息。反過(guò)來(lái),這將意味著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不能像市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的那樣,在2024年保持鴿派立場(chǎng),或支持降息。
貝爾表示,如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)未能像投資者所希望的那樣控制利率,可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生更深遠(yuǎn)的影響。
“不幸的是,你會(huì)面臨債券和股票同時(shí)下跌。”他說(shuō)。
如果一切如貝爾所希望的那樣,包括經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退,他預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在2024年底前將利率從目前的4.25%-4.5%下調(diào)至2.5%。
自2022年初以來(lái),為給不斷上漲的物價(jià)降溫,央行已七次加息。這一政策已經(jīng)開(kāi)始發(fā)揮作用,12月的通貨膨脹率從6月9.1%的40年高點(diǎn)降至6.5%。
一些專家說(shuō),美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)比預(yù)期要好得多,這可能使美國(guó)脫離經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的軌道。
諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主保羅·克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)表示,即使通脹率下降讓人們感到樂(lè)觀,認(rèn)為加息正在發(fā)揮作用,但經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際上還沒(méi)有走出困境。他說(shuō),投資者將通脹視為舊聞,并在1月份推動(dòng)股市大幅上漲,這可能有些操之過(guò)急。這種做法被稱為 “自我否定的預(yù)言”。
預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周三將加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
幾個(gè)月來(lái),專家們一直在爭(zhēng)論“軟著陸”的可能性,即美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在不引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的情況下減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)以降低通脹。
這一想法勢(shì)必會(huì)帶來(lái)一些痛苦,但會(huì)避免經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退引發(fā)的更嚴(yán)重的衰退,比如股市暴跌和經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯。
但一位策略師認(rèn)為,經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退并不那么糟糕。事實(shí)上,今年即使沒(méi)有經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,股市也可能陷入困境。
摩根大通策略師邁克·貝爾(Mike Bell)周二對(duì)彭博電視臺(tái)表示:“實(shí)際上我認(rèn)為,市場(chǎng)面臨的最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是2023年沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退?!?/p>
他說(shuō),如果不出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,員工工資將繼續(xù)上漲,并迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在今年下半年繼續(xù)加息。反過(guò)來(lái),這將意味著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不能像市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的那樣,在2024年保持鴿派立場(chǎng),或支持降息。
貝爾表示,如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)未能像投資者所希望的那樣控制利率,可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生更深遠(yuǎn)的影響。
“不幸的是,你會(huì)面臨債券和股票同時(shí)下跌。”他說(shuō)。
如果一切如貝爾所希望的那樣,包括經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退,他預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在2024年底前將利率從目前的4.25%-4.5%下調(diào)至2.5%。
自2022年初以來(lái),為給不斷上漲的物價(jià)降溫,央行已七次加息。這一政策已經(jīng)開(kāi)始發(fā)揮作用,12月的通貨膨脹率從6月9.1%的40年高點(diǎn)降至6.5%。
一些專家說(shuō),美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)比預(yù)期要好得多,這可能使美國(guó)脫離經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的軌道。
諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主保羅·克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)表示,即使通脹率下降讓人們感到樂(lè)觀,認(rèn)為加息正在發(fā)揮作用,但經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際上還沒(méi)有走出困境。他說(shuō),投資者將通脹視為舊聞,并在1月份推動(dòng)股市大幅上漲,這可能有些操之過(guò)急。這種做法被稱為 “自我否定的預(yù)言”。
預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周三將加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
For months, experts have debated whether a “soft-landing,” in which the Federal Reserve slows the economy to reduce inflation without causing a recession, is possible.
The idea is to cause some pain, but avoid a more significant downturn caused by a recession, such as tanking stocks and a stagnant economy.
But one strategist thinks that a recession isn’t such a bad outcome. In fact, stock markets could be in trouble without a recession this year.
“I actually think the biggest risk to markets is that we don’t get a recession in 2023,” JPMorgan strategist Mike Bell told?Bloomberg TV?Tuesday.
Without a recession, he said, worker wages will continue to increase and force the Fed to raise interest rates in the latter half of the year. That, in turn, would mean the Fed can’t be as dovish, or support lower interest rates, as the markets anticipate it will in 2024.
If the Fed fails to rein in interest rates like investors hope, it could have a more far-reaching impact, Bell said.
“Unfortunately, you’re back into a world where both bonds and stocks would go down together,” he said.
If all goes as Bell hopes, including a recession, he expects the Fed to cut rates to 2.5% by the end of 2024 compared to the current rate of 4.25% to 4.5%.
Since the start of 2022, the central bank has hiked interest rates seven times in an effort to cool rising prices. It has started working, with December’s inflation rate down to 6.5% year-over-year from June’s 40-year high of 9.1%.
Some experts say the economy has fared much better than expected, which could steer it away from the recession track.
Even though falling inflation is raising optimism that interest rate hikes are working, the economy is not out of the woods yet, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman. He said that investors may be getting ahead of themselves by treating inflation as old news, and sending stocks up sharply in January, calling it a “self-denying prophecy.”
The Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points Wednesday.