幾個月來,專家們一直在爭論“軟著陸”的可能性,即美聯(lián)儲在不引發(fā)經(jīng)濟衰退的情況下減緩經(jīng)濟增長以降低通脹。
這一想法勢必會帶來一些痛苦,但會避免經(jīng)濟衰退引發(fā)的更嚴重的衰退,比如股市暴跌和經(jīng)濟停滯。
但一位策略師認為,經(jīng)濟衰退并不那么糟糕。事實上,今年即使沒有經(jīng)濟衰退,股市也可能陷入困境。
摩根大通策略師邁克·貝爾(Mike Bell)上周二對彭博電視臺表示:“實際上我認為,市場面臨的最大風(fēng)險是2023年沒有出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退。”
他說,如果不出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退,員工工資將繼續(xù)上漲,并迫使美聯(lián)儲在今年下半年繼續(xù)加息。反過來,這將意味著美聯(lián)儲不能像市場預(yù)期的那樣,在2024年保持鴿派立場,或支持降息。
貝爾表示,如果美聯(lián)儲未能像投資者所希望的那樣控制利率,可能會產(chǎn)生更深遠的影響。
“不幸的是,你會面臨債券和股票同時下跌?!彼f。
如果一切如貝爾所希望的那樣,包括經(jīng)濟陷入衰退,他預(yù)計美聯(lián)儲將在2024年底前將利率從目前的4.25%-4.5%下調(diào)至2.5%。
自2022年初以來,為給不斷上漲的物價降溫,央行已七次加息。這一政策已經(jīng)開始發(fā)揮作用,12月的通貨膨脹率從6月9.1%的40年高點降至6.5%。
一些專家說,美國經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)比預(yù)期要好得多,這可能使美國脫離經(jīng)濟衰退的軌道。
諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學(xué)獎得主保羅·克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)表示,即使通脹率下降讓人們感到樂觀,認為加息正在發(fā)揮作用,但經(jīng)濟實際上還沒有走出困境。他說,投資者將通脹視為舊聞,并在1月份推動股市大幅上漲,這可能有些操之過急。這種做法被稱為 “自我否定的預(yù)言”。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
幾個月來,專家們一直在爭論“軟著陸”的可能性,即美聯(lián)儲在不引發(fā)經(jīng)濟衰退的情況下減緩經(jīng)濟增長以降低通脹。
這一想法勢必會帶來一些痛苦,但會避免經(jīng)濟衰退引發(fā)的更嚴重的衰退,比如股市暴跌和經(jīng)濟停滯。
但一位策略師認為,經(jīng)濟衰退并不那么糟糕。事實上,今年即使沒有經(jīng)濟衰退,股市也可能陷入困境。
摩根大通策略師邁克·貝爾(Mike Bell)上周二對彭博電視臺表示:“實際上我認為,市場面臨的最大風(fēng)險是2023年沒有出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退?!?/p>
他說,如果不出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退,員工工資將繼續(xù)上漲,并迫使美聯(lián)儲在今年下半年繼續(xù)加息。反過來,這將意味著美聯(lián)儲不能像市場預(yù)期的那樣,在2024年保持鴿派立場,或支持降息。
貝爾表示,如果美聯(lián)儲未能像投資者所希望的那樣控制利率,可能會產(chǎn)生更深遠的影響。
“不幸的是,你會面臨債券和股票同時下跌?!彼f。
如果一切如貝爾所希望的那樣,包括經(jīng)濟陷入衰退,他預(yù)計美聯(lián)儲將在2024年底前將利率從目前的4.25%-4.5%下調(diào)至2.5%。
自2022年初以來,為給不斷上漲的物價降溫,央行已七次加息。這一政策已經(jīng)開始發(fā)揮作用,12月的通貨膨脹率從6月9.1%的40年高點降至6.5%。
一些專家說,美國經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)比預(yù)期要好得多,這可能使美國脫離經(jīng)濟衰退的軌道。
諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學(xué)獎得主保羅·克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)表示,即使通脹率下降讓人們感到樂觀,認為加息正在發(fā)揮作用,但經(jīng)濟實際上還沒有走出困境。他說,投資者將通脹視為舊聞,并在1月份推動股市大幅上漲,這可能有些操之過急。這種做法被稱為 “自我否定的預(yù)言”。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
The New York Stock Exchange.JOHN TAGGART—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES
For months, experts have debated whether a “soft-landing,” in which the Federal Reserve slows the economy to reduce inflation without causing a recession, is possible.
The idea is to cause some pain, but avoid a more significant downturn caused by a recession, such as tanking stocks and a stagnant economy.
But one strategist thinks that a recession isn’t such a bad outcome. In fact, stock markets could be in trouble without a recession this year.
“I actually think the biggest risk to markets is that we don’t get a recession in 2023,” JPMorgan strategist Mike Bell told?Bloomberg TV?Tuesday.
Without a recession, he said, worker wages will continue to increase and force the Fed to raise interest rates in the latter half of the year. That, in turn, would mean the Fed can’t be as dovish, or support lower interest rates, as the markets anticipate it will in 2024.
If the Fed fails to rein in interest rates like investors hope, it could have a more far-reaching impact, Bell said.
“Unfortunately, you’re back into a world where both bonds and stocks would go down together,” he said.
If all goes as Bell hopes, including a recession, he expects the Fed to cut rates to 2.5% by the end of 2024 compared to the current rate of 4.25% to 4.5%.
Since the start of 2022, the central bank has hiked interest rates seven times in an effort to cool rising prices. It has started working, with December’s inflation rate down to 6.5% year-over-year from June’s 40-year high of 9.1%.
Some experts say the economy has fared much better than expected, which could steer it away from the recession track.
Even though falling inflation is raising optimism that interest rate hikes are working, the economy is not out of the woods yet, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman. He said that investors may be getting ahead of themselves by treating inflation as old news, and sending stocks up sharply in January, calling it a “self-denying prophecy.”