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CEO們?nèi)绾螒?yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退?

JOHN KELL
2023-02-08

領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者知道社會(huì)總是處于變化中,不確定性永遠(yuǎn)存在。

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普華永道(PwC)在來自100多個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)的4400多名首席執(zhí)行官中進(jìn)行了調(diào)查,發(fā)現(xiàn)全球近75%的高管預(yù)計(jì)2023年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將會(huì)下降。與普華永道兩年前的調(diào)查相比,人們的看法發(fā)生了徹底逆轉(zhuǎn)。當(dāng)時(shí),四分之三的首席執(zhí)行官表態(tài)樂觀。

如今,首席執(zhí)行官們正在應(yīng)對(duì)短期經(jīng)濟(jì)陣痛與長(zhǎng)期轉(zhuǎn)型以保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力之間的緊張關(guān)系。普華永道的年度全球首席執(zhí)行官調(diào)查顯示,近40%的首席執(zhí)行官認(rèn)為,如果繼續(xù)維持現(xiàn)有經(jīng)營(yíng)模式,本公司經(jīng)濟(jì)將在10年內(nèi)難以維系。

“我的建議是:讓你的公司勝任增長(zhǎng),”普華永道美國(guó)咨詢解決方案副主席、聯(lián)合主管和全球咨詢主管穆罕默德?坎德在周三的《財(cái)富》首席執(zhí)行官領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力系列活動(dòng)上說:“盡一切所能優(yōu)化成本結(jié)構(gòu),再投資于增長(zhǎng)。這種增長(zhǎng)需要是技術(shù)驅(qū)動(dòng)型增長(zhǎng)。這將是未來所在?!?

一年多來,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員一直在抗擊通脹,不斷提高利率,以減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),緩解物價(jià)上漲。政策制定者期望以一種理想的方式來實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo),同時(shí)只引起溫和或短期衰退,甚或完全避免經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。到目前為止,這一策略相當(dāng)成功,美國(guó)通脹率有所下降,與此同時(shí),據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織等觀察機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè),2023年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。

旅行住宿預(yù)定網(wǎng)站繽客(Booking Holdings)首席執(zhí)行官兼總裁格倫·福格爾表示,他的公司必須在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境和未來業(yè)務(wù)需求間取得平衡。對(duì)于繽客來說,主要關(guān)注點(diǎn)在于不斷加速的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,福格爾特別指出最近人工智能和聊天機(jī)器人ChatGPT的熱潮。

“你必須要有不僅僅關(guān)注下一個(gè)季度業(yè)績(jī)的勇氣?!备8駹栒f:“旅游業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)往往比GDP快一點(diǎn)。所以我總是說,‘不要太過于擔(dān)心短期形勢(shì)。我們要確保著眼長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)。’”

加密資產(chǎn)管理公司Grayscale Investments的首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·索內(nèi)謝恩也喜歡著眼長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)。他進(jìn)入加密貨幣行業(yè)已有9年,他說在加密貨幣交易所FTX高調(diào)破產(chǎn)后,業(yè)內(nèi)出現(xiàn)了很多噪音,甚至是不信任。但他認(rèn)為,這是相關(guān)人員的失敗所致,并非整個(gè)加密市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)衰敗的跡象。

索內(nèi)謝恩說:“不要因?yàn)闊狳c(diǎn)新聞分心?!彼?jīng)常提醒團(tuán)隊(duì),要專注于Grayscale作為一個(gè)組織試圖構(gòu)建的目標(biāo),以及“關(guān)于加密貨幣的日常爭(zhēng)論不應(yīng)削弱我們對(duì)此類資產(chǎn)的長(zhǎng)期信念?!?

對(duì)于輪胎制造商米其林(Michelin)而言,正是長(zhǎng)期思維讓這家制造業(yè)巨頭經(jīng)受了五年計(jì)劃重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的三個(gè)關(guān)鍵杠桿。米其林北美總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官亞歷克西斯·加辛表示,這三大杠桿——關(guān)注客戶、加速工廠數(shù)字化、投資于勞動(dòng)力——也降低了整體成本。

咨詢公司Slalom的首席執(zhí)行官布萊德·杰克遜說,他認(rèn)為許多高管都希望出現(xiàn)短期衰退,因?yàn)檫@樣可以重置投資者和員工的預(yù)期。他認(rèn)為,如果公司希望未來發(fā)展更好,需要進(jìn)行更廣泛的文化重置,要更加清醒地專注于客戶和員工。

“我希望看到人們對(duì)長(zhǎng)期投資的意識(shí)提升,認(rèn)識(shí)到它們對(duì)公司市盈率和估值的影響。”杰克遜說, “如今,人們對(duì)這個(gè)話題的討論并不多?!?

塔塔咨詢服務(wù)公司(Tata Consultancy Services)北美地區(qū)董事長(zhǎng)蘇雷什?穆圖斯瓦米說,即使美國(guó)經(jīng)歷短期衰退,企業(yè)可能會(huì)削減成本以應(yīng)對(duì)衰退,但這不應(yīng)影響員工招聘。他說,如果打擊了士氣,結(jié)果甚至可能適得其反。

穆圖斯瓦米在提到他與客戶的談話時(shí)表示:“他們最不愿削減的投資是技術(shù)?!?

人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)的軟件領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力平臺(tái)Indiggo的首席執(zhí)行官賈寧·吉爾巴特稱,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者知道社會(huì)總是處于變革中,不確定性永遠(yuǎn)存在。她反問,這將落在誰的肩膀上?她的觀點(diǎn)是:大部分責(zé)任都會(huì)落在疲憊不堪的中層經(jīng)理和執(zhí)行領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層的肩膀上。

“我們需要維持平衡,一方面是實(shí)施能快速見效的方案,另一方面是以未來為導(dǎo)向進(jìn)行組織建設(shè)?!?吉爾巴特說,“把轉(zhuǎn)型、創(chuàng)新和變革結(jié)合在一起是一項(xiàng)非常困難的工作?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Agatha

普華永道(PwC)在來自100多個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)的4400多名首席執(zhí)行官中進(jìn)行了調(diào)查,發(fā)現(xiàn)全球近75%的高管預(yù)計(jì)2023年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將會(huì)下降。與普華永道兩年前的調(diào)查相比,人們的看法發(fā)生了徹底逆轉(zhuǎn)。當(dāng)時(shí),四分之三的首席執(zhí)行官表態(tài)樂觀。

如今,首席執(zhí)行官們正在應(yīng)對(duì)短期經(jīng)濟(jì)陣痛與長(zhǎng)期轉(zhuǎn)型以保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力之間的緊張關(guān)系。普華永道的年度全球首席執(zhí)行官調(diào)查顯示,近40%的首席執(zhí)行官認(rèn)為,如果繼續(xù)維持現(xiàn)有經(jīng)營(yíng)模式,本公司經(jīng)濟(jì)將在10年內(nèi)難以維系。

“我的建議是:讓你的公司勝任增長(zhǎng),”普華永道美國(guó)咨詢解決方案副主席、聯(lián)合主管和全球咨詢主管穆罕默德?坎德在周三的《財(cái)富》首席執(zhí)行官領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力系列活動(dòng)上說:“盡一切所能優(yōu)化成本結(jié)構(gòu),再投資于增長(zhǎng)。這種增長(zhǎng)需要是技術(shù)驅(qū)動(dòng)型增長(zhǎng)。這將是未來所在?!?

一年多來,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員一直在抗擊通脹,不斷提高利率,以減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),緩解物價(jià)上漲。政策制定者期望以一種理想的方式來實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo),同時(shí)只引起溫和或短期衰退,甚或完全避免經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。到目前為止,這一策略相當(dāng)成功,美國(guó)通脹率有所下降,與此同時(shí),據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織等觀察機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè),2023年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。

旅行住宿預(yù)定網(wǎng)站繽客(Booking Holdings)首席執(zhí)行官兼總裁格倫·福格爾表示,他的公司必須在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境和未來業(yè)務(wù)需求間取得平衡。對(duì)于繽客來說,主要關(guān)注點(diǎn)在于不斷加速的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,福格爾特別指出最近人工智能和聊天機(jī)器人ChatGPT的熱潮。

“你必須要有不僅僅關(guān)注下一個(gè)季度業(yè)績(jī)的勇氣?!备8駹栒f:“旅游業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)往往比GDP快一點(diǎn)。所以我總是說,‘不要太過于擔(dān)心短期形勢(shì)。我們要確保著眼長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)。’”

加密資產(chǎn)管理公司Grayscale Investments的首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·索內(nèi)謝恩也喜歡著眼長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)。他進(jìn)入加密貨幣行業(yè)已有9年,他說在加密貨幣交易所FTX高調(diào)破產(chǎn)后,業(yè)內(nèi)出現(xiàn)了很多噪音,甚至是不信任。但他認(rèn)為,這是相關(guān)人員的失敗所致,并非整個(gè)加密市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)衰敗的跡象。

索內(nèi)謝恩說:“不要因?yàn)闊狳c(diǎn)新聞分心。”他經(jīng)常提醒團(tuán)隊(duì),要專注于Grayscale作為一個(gè)組織試圖構(gòu)建的目標(biāo),以及“關(guān)于加密貨幣的日常爭(zhēng)論不應(yīng)削弱我們對(duì)此類資產(chǎn)的長(zhǎng)期信念。”

對(duì)于輪胎制造商米其林(Michelin)而言,正是長(zhǎng)期思維讓這家制造業(yè)巨頭經(jīng)受了五年計(jì)劃重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的三個(gè)關(guān)鍵杠桿。米其林北美總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官亞歷克西斯·加辛表示,這三大杠桿——關(guān)注客戶、加速工廠數(shù)字化、投資于勞動(dòng)力——也降低了整體成本。

咨詢公司Slalom的首席執(zhí)行官布萊德·杰克遜說,他認(rèn)為許多高管都希望出現(xiàn)短期衰退,因?yàn)檫@樣可以重置投資者和員工的預(yù)期。他認(rèn)為,如果公司希望未來發(fā)展更好,需要進(jìn)行更廣泛的文化重置,要更加清醒地專注于客戶和員工。

“我希望看到人們對(duì)長(zhǎng)期投資的意識(shí)提升,認(rèn)識(shí)到它們對(duì)公司市盈率和估值的影響。”杰克遜說, “如今,人們對(duì)這個(gè)話題的討論并不多。”

塔塔咨詢服務(wù)公司(Tata Consultancy Services)北美地區(qū)董事長(zhǎng)蘇雷什?穆圖斯瓦米說,即使美國(guó)經(jīng)歷短期衰退,企業(yè)可能會(huì)削減成本以應(yīng)對(duì)衰退,但這不應(yīng)影響員工招聘。他說,如果打擊了士氣,結(jié)果甚至可能適得其反。

穆圖斯瓦米在提到他與客戶的談話時(shí)表示:“他們最不愿削減的投資是技術(shù)。”

人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)的軟件領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力平臺(tái)Indiggo的首席執(zhí)行官賈寧·吉爾巴特稱,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者知道社會(huì)總是處于變革中,不確定性永遠(yuǎn)存在。她反問,這將落在誰的肩膀上?她的觀點(diǎn)是:大部分責(zé)任都會(huì)落在疲憊不堪的中層經(jīng)理和執(zhí)行領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層的肩膀上。

“我們需要維持平衡,一方面是實(shí)施能快速見效的方案,另一方面是以未來為導(dǎo)向進(jìn)行組織建設(shè)。” 吉爾巴特說,“把轉(zhuǎn)型、創(chuàng)新和變革結(jié)合在一起是一項(xiàng)非常困難的工作?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Agatha

When PwC surveyed over 4,400 CEOS from more than 100 countries and territories, it discovered that nearly 75% of the world’s top executives are expecting a drop in growth in 2023. But in the surveys conducted by PwC in the two years prior, there was a complete flip in perception. Three out of every four CEOs had expressed optimism.

Today, CEOs are managing the tension that exists between short-term economic pain and the long-term mandate to transform to remain competitive. Nearly 40% of CEOs think their company won’t be economically viable in a decade if they continue with business as usual, according to PwC’s annual global CEO survey.

“My advice: get your company fit for growth,” says Mohamed Kande, vice chair for U.S. consulting solutions and co-leader and global advisory leader at PwC, during Fortune’s CEO Leadership Series on Wednesday. “Do all the cost structuring that needs to be done and reinvest in growth. And that growth needs to be powered by technology. That will be the future.”

For more than a year, Federal Reserve officials have been fighting inflation and have consistently hiked interest rates in a bid to slow the economy to ease price increases. But policymakers are aiming to do so in a manner that would ideally result in a gentle or short term recession, or perhaps avoid an economic downturn completely. The strategy has thus far been fairly successful, with the U.S. seeing inflation lessen but economic growth still projected in 2023 by observers like the International Monetary Fund.

Glenn Fogel, CEO and president of online travel agency Booking Holdings, says his company must balance the macroeconomic environment with the future needs of his business. For Booking.com, that’s largely focused on the acceleration of tech innovations, with Fogel pointing to the recent buzz surrounding A.I. and chatbot ChatGPT.

“You have to have the courage not to just look at the next quarter,” says Fogel. “Travel will pretty much grow a little bit faster than GDP. So I have to always say, ‘Let’s not worry too much about the short term. Let’s be sure we are going for the long term.’”

Michael Sonnenshein, CEO at crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments, also likes to think long term. He’s been in the crypto business for nine years and says the industry has seen a lot of noise and even mistrust in the wake of the high-profile bankruptcy of crypto exchange FTX. But he says that’s a failure of the people involved, not an indictment of the entire crypto market.

“Don’t get distracted by the headlines,” says Sonnenshein. He says he reminds his team to focus on what Grayscale is trying to build as an organization and that the “day-to-day debates about crypto shouldn’t take away from the long term conviction we have around the asset class.”

At tire maker Michelin, longer-term thinking also led the manufacturing giant to outlive three key levers that are the focus of a five-year plan. Alexis Garcin, president and CEO of Michelin North America, says all three—a focus on customers, accelerating the digitization of factories, and investing in their workforce—are also bringing down costs overall.

Brad Jackson, CEO of consulting firm Slalom, says that he thinks many executives want a short-term recession, as it would allow them to reset expectations with investors and their employees. He thinks companies that will do well in the future need to have a broader cultural reset, with a keen focus on customers and their employees.

“I’d like to see more consciousness of long-term investments and how they impact the multiple and valuations for companies,” says Jackson. “That’s not getting talked about much today.”

Even if the U.S. experiences a short-term recession, Tata Consultancy Services North America Chairman Suresh Muthuswami says that while companies may cut costs to be recession ready, it shouldn’t affect employee engagement. He says that hurting morale could even be counterproductive.

“Technology is the last thing they are cutting,” says Muthuswami, when referencing conversations he has had with clients.

Janeen Gelbart, CEO at A.I.-driven software leadership platform Indiggo, says leaders know that society is always in a period of change and that uncertainty will always exist. And she rhetorically asked, whose shoulders does this land on. Her view: much of the responsibility lies on the shoulders of burnt out middle managers and executive leadership.

“We need a balance of having some quick wins, and at the same time, building our organizations for the future,” says Gelbart. “That mix of transformation, innovation, and change is very hard.”

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