上月,在大型銀行倒閉后,監(jiān)管部門和政府官員呼吁儲戶保持冷靜,同時堅稱美國金融體系和銀行系統(tǒng)依舊穩(wěn)定。然而,有多位專家表示,盡管在經(jīng)過銀行股混亂的幾周之后,一切開始塵埃落定,但這場危機可能遠未結(jié)束,因為銀行資產(chǎn)依舊存在問題。
道明證券(TD Securities)全球利率研究負責人普里亞·米斯拉周四接受彭博社采訪時表示:“財務壓力問題、流動性危機、銀行擠兌等,這些問題不會結(jié)束。美國銀行系統(tǒng)面臨的資本問題能否結(jié)束?我認為不會?!?/p>
硅谷銀行(Silicon Valley Bank)和簽名銀行(Signature Bank)的儲戶得到了政府保護,而且其他銀行幾周前高度動蕩的股票似乎趨于穩(wěn)定,更明顯的大范圍恐慌或許已經(jīng)平息。但這并不意味著金融系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)安然無恙,因為銀行依舊有數(shù)萬億美元的未實現(xiàn)損失。
米斯拉表示:“我認為我們打開了潘多拉魔盒;銀行資產(chǎn)負債表上依舊有巨額未實現(xiàn)損失?!比绻y行開始出現(xiàn)資產(chǎn)負債表問題,擔心自己的財務狀況不穩(wěn)定,可能會導致銀行縮小貸款規(guī)模,提高貸款成本,最終引發(fā)經(jīng)濟學家和政府官員們幾周來不斷警告的可怕的信貸緊縮。
她說到:“無論[銀行]不得不剝離資產(chǎn)還是進行募資,或者兩者同時執(zhí)行,這都會影響貸款標準?!?/p>
未實現(xiàn)損失是指持有價格下降但尚未出售的銀行資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生的賬面損失,在出售時資產(chǎn)價值下降,則未實現(xiàn)損失將變成“實現(xiàn)”損失。未實現(xiàn)損失是硅谷銀行倒閉的罪魁禍首之一。硅谷銀行持有大量長期政府債券,由于美聯(lián)儲在過去一年突然從近零利率轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楦呃虱h(huán)境,導致債券價值大幅下降。硅谷銀行在3月初宣布,預計出售投資將虧損18億美元,這成為銀行擠兌的導火索,最終導致銀行破產(chǎn)。
硅谷銀行在破產(chǎn)前備受管理不善問題的困擾,包括在破產(chǎn)前八個月始終沒有任命首席風險官。但許多銀行甚至大多數(shù)銀行可能都面臨類似問題。紐約大學(New York University)本月發(fā)表的一份報告稱,截至去年年底,美國所有銀行的未實現(xiàn)損失金額高達1.7萬億美元。
米斯拉表示,更嚴格的貸款標準可能影響經(jīng)濟,但這將在何時發(fā)生以及哪些市場和行業(yè)將受到最嚴重影響,目前仍是未知數(shù)。米斯拉還表示,這可能提高美國在近期內(nèi)陷入經(jīng)濟衰退的概率。幾個月來,消費者儲蓄一直被作為美國防范經(jīng)濟衰退的“護欄”,但消費者儲蓄的規(guī)模正在快速縮小,這加劇了美國經(jīng)濟衰退的風險。
她表示:“儲蓄緩沖正在被耗盡。而這恰好是銀行應該發(fā)放貸款的時候。如果銀行減少貸款,我認為會加劇貨幣緊縮。”她還認為,在各種因素的共同影響下,“絕對會導致美國經(jīng)濟硬著陸”。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
上月,在大型銀行倒閉后,監(jiān)管部門和政府官員呼吁儲戶保持冷靜,同時堅稱美國金融體系和銀行系統(tǒng)依舊穩(wěn)定。然而,有多位專家表示,盡管在經(jīng)過銀行股混亂的幾周之后,一切開始塵埃落定,但這場危機可能遠未結(jié)束,因為銀行資產(chǎn)依舊存在問題。
道明證券(TD Securities)全球利率研究負責人普里亞·米斯拉周四接受彭博社采訪時表示:“財務壓力問題、流動性危機、銀行擠兌等,這些問題不會結(jié)束。美國銀行系統(tǒng)面臨的資本問題能否結(jié)束?我認為不會?!?/p>
硅谷銀行(Silicon Valley Bank)和簽名銀行(Signature Bank)的儲戶得到了政府保護,而且其他銀行幾周前高度動蕩的股票似乎趨于穩(wěn)定,更明顯的大范圍恐慌或許已經(jīng)平息。但這并不意味著金融系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)安然無恙,因為銀行依舊有數(shù)萬億美元的未實現(xiàn)損失。
米斯拉表示:“我認為我們打開了潘多拉魔盒;銀行資產(chǎn)負債表上依舊有巨額未實現(xiàn)損失?!比绻y行開始出現(xiàn)資產(chǎn)負債表問題,擔心自己的財務狀況不穩(wěn)定,可能會導致銀行縮小貸款規(guī)模,提高貸款成本,最終引發(fā)經(jīng)濟學家和政府官員們幾周來不斷警告的可怕的信貸緊縮。
她說到:“無論[銀行]不得不剝離資產(chǎn)還是進行募資,或者兩者同時執(zhí)行,這都會影響貸款標準。”
未實現(xiàn)損失是指持有價格下降但尚未出售的銀行資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生的賬面損失,在出售時資產(chǎn)價值下降,則未實現(xiàn)損失將變成“實現(xiàn)”損失。未實現(xiàn)損失是硅谷銀行倒閉的罪魁禍首之一。硅谷銀行持有大量長期政府債券,由于美聯(lián)儲在過去一年突然從近零利率轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楦呃虱h(huán)境,導致債券價值大幅下降。硅谷銀行在3月初宣布,預計出售投資將虧損18億美元,這成為銀行擠兌的導火索,最終導致銀行破產(chǎn)。
硅谷銀行在破產(chǎn)前備受管理不善問題的困擾,包括在破產(chǎn)前八個月始終沒有任命首席風險官。但許多銀行甚至大多數(shù)銀行可能都面臨類似問題。紐約大學(New York University)本月發(fā)表的一份報告稱,截至去年年底,美國所有銀行的未實現(xiàn)損失金額高達1.7萬億美元。
米斯拉表示,更嚴格的貸款標準可能影響經(jīng)濟,但這將在何時發(fā)生以及哪些市場和行業(yè)將受到最嚴重影響,目前仍是未知數(shù)。米斯拉還表示,這可能提高美國在近期內(nèi)陷入經(jīng)濟衰退的概率。幾個月來,消費者儲蓄一直被作為美國防范經(jīng)濟衰退的“護欄”,但消費者儲蓄的規(guī)模正在快速縮小,這加劇了美國經(jīng)濟衰退的風險。
她表示:“儲蓄緩沖正在被耗盡。而這恰好是銀行應該發(fā)放貸款的時候。如果銀行減少貸款,我認為會加劇貨幣緊縮?!彼€認為,在各種因素的共同影響下,“絕對會導致美國經(jīng)濟硬著陸”。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
Regulators and government officials are urging calm in the wake of this month’s major bank failures, while insisting that the U.S. financial and banking system remains stable. But even if the dust is starting to settle after a chaotic few weeks for bank stocks, the crisis may not be over yet as bank assets could still be in trouble, according to some experts.
“Financial stress issues, the liquidity crisis, the bank runs, that can stop. Will the capital issues that the U.S. banking system faces, will that go away? I would argue it doesn’t,” Priya Misra, head of global rates research at TD Securities, said in an interview with Bloomberg Thursday.
With Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank depositors protected by the government, and other bank stocks that were extremely shaky a few weeks ago seemingly stabilizing, the more overt contagion fears may have been put to bed. But that doesn’t mean the financial system is safe just yet, as banks are still sitting on trillions of dollars in unrealized losses.
“I think you’ve opened a Pandora’s box; there are massive unrealized losses sitting on bank balance sheets,” Misra said. If banks start running into balance sheet issues and worrying about being in a strong financial position, it could potentially lead to smaller and more expensive loans, sparking the dreaded credit crunch that economists and government officials have been warning about for weeks.
“Either [banks are] going to have to shed assets or raise capital or some combination of both, and that’s going to impact lending standards,” she said.
Unrealized losses are paper losses affecting bank assets that have decreased in price, but have not yet been sold, which would “realize” that the asset has diminished in value. Unrealized losses were one of the culprits behind SVB’s downfall, as the bank possessed large holdings of long-term government bonds that became worth significantly less because of the Federal Reserve’s abrupt shift from near-zero interest rates to a high-rate environment over the past year. SVB announced it was expecting a $1.8 billion loss on sales of its investments in early March, a catalyst behind the bank run that eventually led to the bank’s collapse.
SVB was plagued with mismanagement issues before failing, including lacking an official chief risk officer for the eight months before its collapse. But many, if not most, other banks could be facing similar issues. Unrealized losses at U.S. banks may have totaled as much as $1.7 trillion by the end of last year, according to a New York University paper published this month.
Misra said tighter lending standards are likely to have an impact on the economy, but the unknown is when that will happen and which markets and sectors will be hardest hit. It could all add up to a higher likelihood of a recession hitting soon, aggravated by the rapidly shrinking pool of consumer savings that has been Americans’ guardrail against a recession for months, Misra added.
“That savings buffer is running down. This is exactly when banks should be making loans. And if the banks are actually stepping back I think it adds to the monetary tightening,” she said, adding that the combination of circumstances is “absolutely going to result in a hard landing” for the economy.