盡管監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的打擊、銀行業(yè)的崩潰和持續(xù)的通貨膨脹似乎會給加密貨幣行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展帶來麻煩,但比特幣、以太幣和其他知名代幣的價格自2023年年初以來一直在飆升。
市值最大的加密貨幣比特幣上漲了72%,最近突破了3萬美元的關(guān)口。(由于通貨膨脹和利率上升令投資者感到擔(dān)憂,比特幣后來跌破了28500美元)。市值第二大的加密貨幣以太幣上漲了62%,在以太坊(以太幣的區(qū)塊鏈)成功升級后突破了2000美元。根據(jù)CoinMarketCap的數(shù)據(jù),所有加密貨幣的總市值高達(dá)約1.2萬億美元,自今年年初以來增長了約50%。
盡管與2021年的高點(當(dāng)時加密貨幣總市值接近3萬億美元)相比,表現(xiàn)最突出的數(shù)字資產(chǎn)最近的價格仍然相形見絀,但價格反彈讓觀察人士質(zhì)疑加密貨幣之春是否終于到來了。
加密貨幣寒冬結(jié)束了嗎,我還應(yīng)該把保暖的衣服掛在門口嗎?
——Sariraa.eth (@SariraMerikhi) ,2023年4月14日
但是加密貨幣的寒冬真的結(jié)束了嗎?《財富》雜志采訪了四位分析師,讓他們從歷史的角度分析當(dāng)前的漲勢。
四年周期假說
加密貨幣投資公司Bitwise Asset Management的首席投資官馬特?霍根(Matt Hougan)在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示:“加密貨幣的漲跌非常有規(guī)律,遵循四年周期?!?/p>
他說,到目前為止,加密貨幣已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了三輪高峰和低谷。
從2011年到2013年,加密貨幣的價格上漲,然后在2014年隨著最早的比特幣交易所之一Mt.Gox的倒閉而下跌,該交易所在黑客盜取了數(shù)億美元的客戶資金后破產(chǎn)。
從2015年到2017年,加密貨幣價格再次上漲,在2018年暴跌。在首次代幣發(fā)行(ICO)時代,許多投資者損失慘重,因為事實證明,他們狂熱購買代幣卻被割韭菜。
從2019年到2021年,加密貨幣的價格再次上漲,在一系列備受矚目的加密貨幣公司破產(chǎn)后,其價格在2022年下跌,其中最引人注目的是FTX的破產(chǎn),這家隕落的交易所曾估值320億美元。
一些分析師普遍認(rèn)為,比特幣的價格波動——以及加密貨幣行業(yè)的整體增長——與比特幣“減半”的時間大致相符,或者挖比特幣的獎勵(區(qū)塊鏈?zhǔn)褂糜嬎銠C(jī)科學(xué)的原理來保護(hù)數(shù)字資產(chǎn)的過程)減少50%時。
該理論認(rèn)為,比特幣獎勵的減少使其供應(yīng)更加稀缺,因此,價格走高。
AB Bernstein常務(wù)董事兼高級數(shù)字資產(chǎn)分析師高塔姆?丘加尼(Gautam Chhugani)對《財富》雜志表示:“比特幣減半之后,會出現(xiàn)大幅反彈。在減半之前,人們就預(yù)期比特幣會出現(xiàn)反彈?!?/p>
另一方面,Bitwise的霍根認(rèn)為,四年周期的開端與技術(shù)創(chuàng)新相對應(yīng)。2011年,面向大眾的加密貨幣交易所——Coinbase, Kraken等相繼出現(xiàn),非專業(yè)人員可以用現(xiàn)金購買比特幣。2015年,維塔利克·布特林(Vitalik Buterin)發(fā)明了以太坊,它承諾進(jìn)行去中心化云計算?;舾f,在2019年,“以太坊的第一個真正應(yīng)用”出現(xiàn)了,包括去中心化金融(DeFi)、穩(wěn)定幣和非同質(zhì)化代幣(NFT)。
四年周期假說使用的樣本是三個價格漲跌實例,是相對較小的數(shù)據(jù)集。然而,如果這一趨勢持續(xù)下去,加密貨幣將迎來另一輪牛市。
看好比特幣和加密貨幣
AllianceBernstein的丘加尼認(rèn)為,在短期內(nèi),比特幣和加密貨幣行業(yè)將跟隨全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的高峰期和低谷期。不過,他對加密貨幣的中長期前景持樂觀態(tài)度。他在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示:“比特幣從未連續(xù)兩年出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長。
加密貨幣交易所Bitfinex的市場研究團(tuán)隊Bitfinex Alpha的分析師同意這一觀點。他們在給《財富》的一份聲明中表示:“雖然加密貨幣寒冬是否終于結(jié)束還沒有定論,但比特幣的網(wǎng)絡(luò)活動表明,交易費用呈上升趨勢。”
加密貨幣交易公司GSR的高級策略師布萊恩·魯?shù)峡耍˙rian Rudick)認(rèn)為,該行業(yè)是否處于熊市還有待商榷。他說:“這取決于你對加密貨幣寒冬的定義。”
從價格和情緒,或者公眾對加密貨幣的看法來看,加密貨幣寒冬的寒意是顯而易見的。然而,從其他指標(biāo)來看,這是相對溫和的。
魯?shù)峡酥赋?,根?jù)Crypto.com的數(shù)據(jù),2022年加密貨幣用戶將增加40%;根據(jù)Electric Capital的數(shù)據(jù),2022年開發(fā)人員數(shù)量將增加5%;根據(jù)Alchemy的數(shù)據(jù),部署在以太坊上的智能合約或在區(qū)塊鏈上運行的程序?qū)⒃黾?93%。
盡管前景很樂觀,但AB Bernstein的分析師丘加尼警告說,比特幣價格在2021年上漲到近7萬美元的狂熱速度不會馬上到來。他對《財富》雜志表示:“監(jiān)管仍然具有挑戰(zhàn)性。所以我們并沒有進(jìn)入瘋狂的牛市。”
盡管如此,他仍然看好加密貨幣?!霸谶^去的14年里,這個行業(yè)已經(jīng)消亡了幾百次?!彼f。然而,盡管不斷有人預(yù)測加密貨幣會崩潰,但他補(bǔ)充說,“這并沒有真正發(fā)生?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
盡管監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的打擊、銀行業(yè)的崩潰和持續(xù)的通貨膨脹似乎會給加密貨幣行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展帶來麻煩,但比特幣、以太幣和其他知名代幣的價格自2023年年初以來一直在飆升。
市值最大的加密貨幣比特幣上漲了72%,最近突破了3萬美元的關(guān)口。(由于通貨膨脹和利率上升令投資者感到擔(dān)憂,比特幣后來跌破了28500美元)。市值第二大的加密貨幣以太幣上漲了62%,在以太坊(以太幣的區(qū)塊鏈)成功升級后突破了2000美元。根據(jù)CoinMarketCap的數(shù)據(jù),所有加密貨幣的總市值高達(dá)約1.2萬億美元,自今年年初以來增長了約50%。
盡管與2021年的高點(當(dāng)時加密貨幣總市值接近3萬億美元)相比,表現(xiàn)最突出的數(shù)字資產(chǎn)最近的價格仍然相形見絀,但價格反彈讓觀察人士質(zhì)疑加密貨幣之春是否終于到來了。
加密貨幣寒冬結(jié)束了嗎,我還應(yīng)該把保暖的衣服掛在門口嗎?
——Sariraa.eth (@SariraMerikhi) ,2023年4月14日
但是加密貨幣的寒冬真的結(jié)束了嗎?《財富》雜志采訪了四位分析師,讓他們從歷史的角度分析當(dāng)前的漲勢。
四年周期假說
加密貨幣投資公司Bitwise Asset Management的首席投資官馬特?霍根(Matt Hougan)在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示:“加密貨幣的漲跌非常有規(guī)律,遵循四年周期。”
他說,到目前為止,加密貨幣已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了三輪高峰和低谷。
從2011年到2013年,加密貨幣的價格上漲,然后在2014年隨著最早的比特幣交易所之一Mt.Gox的倒閉而下跌,該交易所在黑客盜取了數(shù)億美元的客戶資金后破產(chǎn)。
從2015年到2017年,加密貨幣價格再次上漲,在2018年暴跌。在首次代幣發(fā)行(ICO)時代,許多投資者損失慘重,因為事實證明,他們狂熱購買代幣卻被割韭菜。
從2019年到2021年,加密貨幣的價格再次上漲,在一系列備受矚目的加密貨幣公司破產(chǎn)后,其價格在2022年下跌,其中最引人注目的是FTX的破產(chǎn),這家隕落的交易所曾估值320億美元。
一些分析師普遍認(rèn)為,比特幣的價格波動——以及加密貨幣行業(yè)的整體增長——與比特幣“減半”的時間大致相符,或者挖比特幣的獎勵(區(qū)塊鏈?zhǔn)褂糜嬎銠C(jī)科學(xué)的原理來保護(hù)數(shù)字資產(chǎn)的過程)減少50%時。
該理論認(rèn)為,比特幣獎勵的減少使其供應(yīng)更加稀缺,因此,價格走高。
AB Bernstein常務(wù)董事兼高級數(shù)字資產(chǎn)分析師高塔姆?丘加尼(Gautam Chhugani)對《財富》雜志表示:“比特幣減半之后,會出現(xiàn)大幅反彈。在減半之前,人們就預(yù)期比特幣會出現(xiàn)反彈?!?/p>
另一方面,Bitwise的霍根認(rèn)為,四年周期的開端與技術(shù)創(chuàng)新相對應(yīng)。2011年,面向大眾的加密貨幣交易所——Coinbase, Kraken等相繼出現(xiàn),非專業(yè)人員可以用現(xiàn)金購買比特幣。2015年,維塔利克·布特林(Vitalik Buterin)發(fā)明了以太坊,它承諾進(jìn)行去中心化云計算?;舾f,在2019年,“以太坊的第一個真正應(yīng)用”出現(xiàn)了,包括去中心化金融(DeFi)、穩(wěn)定幣和非同質(zhì)化代幣(NFT)。
四年周期假說使用的樣本是三個價格漲跌實例,是相對較小的數(shù)據(jù)集。然而,如果這一趨勢持續(xù)下去,加密貨幣將迎來另一輪牛市。
看好比特幣和加密貨幣
AllianceBernstein的丘加尼認(rèn)為,在短期內(nèi),比特幣和加密貨幣行業(yè)將跟隨全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的高峰期和低谷期。不過,他對加密貨幣的中長期前景持樂觀態(tài)度。他在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示:“比特幣從未連續(xù)兩年出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長。
加密貨幣交易所Bitfinex的市場研究團(tuán)隊Bitfinex Alpha的分析師同意這一觀點。他們在給《財富》的一份聲明中表示:“雖然加密貨幣寒冬是否終于結(jié)束還沒有定論,但比特幣的網(wǎng)絡(luò)活動表明,交易費用呈上升趨勢。”
加密貨幣交易公司GSR的高級策略師布萊恩·魯?shù)峡耍˙rian Rudick)認(rèn)為,該行業(yè)是否處于熊市還有待商榷。他說:“這取決于你對加密貨幣寒冬的定義。”
從價格和情緒,或者公眾對加密貨幣的看法來看,加密貨幣寒冬的寒意是顯而易見的。然而,從其他指標(biāo)來看,這是相對溫和的。
魯?shù)峡酥赋?,根?jù)Crypto.com的數(shù)據(jù),2022年加密貨幣用戶將增加40%;根據(jù)Electric Capital的數(shù)據(jù),2022年開發(fā)人員數(shù)量將增加5%;根據(jù)Alchemy的數(shù)據(jù),部署在以太坊上的智能合約或在區(qū)塊鏈上運行的程序?qū)⒃黾?93%。
盡管前景很樂觀,但AB Bernstein的分析師丘加尼警告說,比特幣價格在2021年上漲到近7萬美元的狂熱速度不會馬上到來。他對《財富》雜志表示:“監(jiān)管仍然具有挑戰(zhàn)性。所以我們并沒有進(jìn)入瘋狂的牛市?!?
盡管如此,他仍然看好加密貨幣?!霸谶^去的14年里,這個行業(yè)已經(jīng)消亡了幾百次?!彼f。然而,盡管不斷有人預(yù)測加密貨幣會崩潰,但他補(bǔ)充說,“這并沒有真正發(fā)生。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
A regulatory crackdown, a banking collapse, and persistent inflation seemingly would spell trouble for the health of the crypto industry, but Bitcoin, Ether, and other marquee tokens have skyrocketed since the beginning of 2023.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is up 72%, recently crossing the $30,000 threshold. (It has since dipped below $28,500, as inflation and rising interest rates have spooked investors.) Ether, the second largest, is up 62%, blowing past $2,000 after a successful upgrade to Ethereum, the token’s blockchain. And the total market cap for all cryptocurrencies is up to about $1.2 trillion, an increase of approximately 50% since the beginning of the year, according to CoinMarketCap.
While recent prices for the most prominent digital assets still pale in comparison to their heights in 2021, when the total crypto market cap neared $3 trillion, the price rally has observers questioning whether Crypto Spring has finally sprung.
Is crypto winter over or should I still hang my warm clothes at the door?
— Sariraa.eth (@SariraMerikhi) April 14, 2023
But is Crypto Winter actually over? Fortune spoke to four analysts to place the current rally in historical context.
The four-year cycle hypothesis
“Crypto has worked like clockwork in four-year cycles,” Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, a crypto investment outfit, told Fortune.
And so far, he says, there have been three rounds of peaks and valleys.
From 2011 to 2013, the price of the cryptocurrency rose and then fell in 2014 with the collapse of one of the earliest Bitcoin exchanges, Mt. Gox, which went bankrupt after hackers made off with hundreds of millions in customer funds.
From 2015 to 2017, crypto prices increased again, plummeting in 2018 when the era of ICOs, or initial coin offerings, left many investors bereft as many of the tokens they feverishly bought turned out to be quick cash grabs.
And from 2019 to 2021, prices rose once more, dropping in 2022 after a series of high-profile crypto companies went belly-up, most significantly FTX, the bankrupt exchange once valued at $32 billion.
Some analysts have commonly understood Bitcoin’s price fluctuations—and the crypto industry’s growth writ large—to roughly correspond to when Bitcoin is “halved,” or when the rewards for mining Bitcoin, the process by which computers secure the digital asset’s blockchain, are reduced by 50%.
This reduction in Bitcoin rewards, the theory goes, makes the cryptocurrency’s supply scarcer, which thereby increases its price.
“Post-halving, there’s a big rally that happens,” Gautam Chhugani, managing director and senior digital assets analyst at AB Bernstein, told Fortune. “Pre-halving, there’s an anticipation rally that happens.”
Bitwise’s Hougan, on the other hand, believes that the start of each four-year cycle corresponds to technical innovations. In 2011, mass-market crypto exchanges—Coinbase, Kraken, etc.—launched, allowing laypeople to buy Bitcoin with cash. In 2015, Vitalik Buterin invented Ethereum, which promised to decentralize cloud computing. And in 2019, the “first real applications of Ethereum” appeared, Hougan says, including DeFi, or decentralized finance, stablecoins, and NFTs, or non-fungible tokens.
The four-year cycle hypothesis uses a sample size of three instances of price gains and falls, a small dataset. However, if the trend holds, crypto is due for another bull run.
Bullish on Bitcoin—and crypto
In the near term, Chhugani of AllianceBernstein believes Bitcoin and the crypto industry will follow the peaks and valleys of the larger world economy. However, he’s optimistic on its medium and long-term outlook. “Bitcoin has never had two negative years consequently,” he told Fortune.
Analysts at Bitfinex Alpha, a market research team within the crypto exchange Bitfinex, agree. “While the jury is still out as to whether the Crypto Winter is finally over, Bitcoin network activity is indicating a healthy uptrend in transaction fees,” they said in a statement to Fortune.
And Brian Rudick, senior strategist at crypto trading firm GSR, thinks it’s arguable that the industry is even in a bear market at all. “It depends on what your definition of Crypto Winter is,” he said.
Going by price and sentiment, or how the public views crypto, the chill of winter is obvious. However, going by other metrics, it’s comparatively balmy.
Rudick cited a 40% increase in crypto users in 2022, according to Crypto.com, a 5% increase in the number of developers in 2022, according to Electric Capital, and a 293% increase in smart contracts deployed on Ethereum, or programs running on the blockchain, according to Alchemy.
Despite the optimism, Chhugani, the analyst at AB Bernstein, warned that the feverish pace that saw Bitcoin’s price rise to almost $70,000 in 2021 isn’t directly around the corner. “Regulation remains challenging,” he told Fortune. “So we’re not in the middle of a crazy raging bull market.”
That said, he remains bullish. “This industry has died like a few hundred times in the last 14 years,” he said. However, despite constant predictions of crypto’s collapse, he added, “it doesn’t really happen.”