高利率和房價飆升正在扼殺美國人對房地產(chǎn)市場的信心。蓋洛普(Gallup)的一項新調(diào)查顯示,只有21%的美國成年人認為現(xiàn)在是買房的好時機。這是自1978年該機構首次向美國人提出這個問題以來,美國人購房情緒指數(shù)最低的一次。這也是情緒指數(shù)連續(xù)第二年跌至新低——2022年,只有30%的購房者認為房地產(chǎn)市場對購房者有利。
從情緒指數(shù)變化的角度來看,這兩年之前的歷史低點是50%,而這一情況剛剛發(fā)生在2020年,足見變化的速度有多快。
不難分析為何購房情緒如此低迷。在過去一年多的時間里,利率大幅上升,抑制了人們的負擔能力,房價中位數(shù)為436,800美元,而新冠疫情前為329,000美元。在過去的幾個月里,住房負擔能力一直處于歷史最低點。
蓋洛普表示,這項調(diào)查不僅考慮了房地產(chǎn)市場的整體健康狀況,還考慮了美國人是否認為房地產(chǎn)仍然是一項不錯的投資。自1978年以來的大部分時間里,至少有一半的美國人對房地產(chǎn)市場有信心。但自新冠疫情以來,這種情況發(fā)生了巨大變化。
在新冠疫情早期,創(chuàng)紀錄的低利率導致許多美國人的財務狀況出現(xiàn)兩極分化。那些有能力購房并且能夠找到房子的人很幸運,因為房價大幅上漲;美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)發(fā)現(xiàn),房主的凈資產(chǎn)中位數(shù)是租房者的40倍。
房價飆升意味著房主可以在過去幾年中更快地積累資產(chǎn)(根據(jù)CoreLogic的一項分析,從2021年年底到2022年年底,抵押貸款持有人的資產(chǎn)增加了1萬億美元)。但這也意味著,目前的潛在買家正是因為房價過高,從而望而卻步。
Sotheby’s International-Santa Barbara的房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀人莫琳·麥克德穆特稱:“可悲的現(xiàn)實是,擁有住房是家庭積累代際財富的最佳途徑,而這在美國大部分地區(qū)都處于危險之中。仍需提振房地產(chǎn)市場?!?/p>
利率不斷走高,這一點尤其致命,很快就使有吸引力的房價變得難以承受。事實上,根據(jù)Bankrate的數(shù)據(jù),以目前6.58%的平均利率計算,一筆30萬美元貸款的月供將比美聯(lián)儲于2022年3月開始加息時(當時平均利率為4.40%)多出410美元。
因此,尤其是年輕的購房者,正在推遲他們的購房夢想。西北互惠銀行(Northwestern Mutual)的《2023年規(guī)劃與進展研究》(2023 Planning & Progress Study)顯示,近四分之一的Z世代和18%的千禧一代表示,由于經(jīng)濟不確定性,他們將推遲買房或建房,而在所有美國人中,這一比例為12%。蓋洛普指出,彌漫在市場上的悲觀情緒可能會讓首次購房者處于觀望狀態(tài)。
麥克德穆特說:“在過去的五年里,我們過去認為的‘起步房’房價大幅上漲,而工資和收入?yún)s沒有跟上房價漲幅。隨著租金上漲和房價上漲,潛在的購房者正受到來自兩方面的擠壓。當租金占據(jù)了租房者月收入的一半時,就很難攢下首付?!?/p>
盡管如此,根據(jù)蓋洛普的調(diào)查,房地產(chǎn)仍然被認為是最佳長期投資選擇:在該機構的經(jīng)濟和個人財務情況調(diào)查中,美國人對房地產(chǎn)的排名高于股票、債券、黃金和其他資產(chǎn)。不過,它的優(yōu)勢正在縮小。如今,大約34%的人認為這是最佳投資選擇,而去年這一比例為創(chuàng)紀錄的45%。這表明市場情緒在一年內(nèi)會發(fā)生多大的變化。
蓋洛普在另一份報告中指出:“過去一年的高利率使房地產(chǎn)市場降溫,抑制了消費者對房地產(chǎn)投資的熱情?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
高利率和房價飆升正在扼殺美國人對房地產(chǎn)市場的信心。蓋洛普(Gallup)的一項新調(diào)查顯示,只有21%的美國成年人認為現(xiàn)在是買房的好時機。這是自1978年該機構首次向美國人提出這個問題以來,美國人購房情緒指數(shù)最低的一次。這也是情緒指數(shù)連續(xù)第二年跌至新低——2022年,只有30%的購房者認為房地產(chǎn)市場對購房者有利。
從情緒指數(shù)變化的角度來看,這兩年之前的歷史低點是50%,而這一情況剛剛發(fā)生在2020年,足見變化的速度有多快。
不難分析為何購房情緒如此低迷。在過去一年多的時間里,利率大幅上升,抑制了人們的負擔能力,房價中位數(shù)為436,800美元,而新冠疫情前為329,000美元。在過去的幾個月里,住房負擔能力一直處于歷史最低點。
蓋洛普表示,這項調(diào)查不僅考慮了房地產(chǎn)市場的整體健康狀況,還考慮了美國人是否認為房地產(chǎn)仍然是一項不錯的投資。自1978年以來的大部分時間里,至少有一半的美國人對房地產(chǎn)市場有信心。但自新冠疫情以來,這種情況發(fā)生了巨大變化。
在新冠疫情早期,創(chuàng)紀錄的低利率導致許多美國人的財務狀況出現(xiàn)兩極分化。那些有能力購房并且能夠找到房子的人很幸運,因為房價大幅上漲;美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)發(fā)現(xiàn),房主的凈資產(chǎn)中位數(shù)是租房者的40倍。
房價飆升意味著房主可以在過去幾年中更快地積累資產(chǎn)(根據(jù)CoreLogic的一項分析,從2021年年底到2022年年底,抵押貸款持有人的資產(chǎn)增加了1萬億美元)。但這也意味著,目前的潛在買家正是因為房價過高,從而望而卻步。
Sotheby’s International-Santa Barbara的房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀人莫琳·麥克德穆特稱:“可悲的現(xiàn)實是,擁有住房是家庭積累代際財富的最佳途徑,而這在美國大部分地區(qū)都處于危險之中。仍需提振房地產(chǎn)市場?!?/p>
利率不斷走高,這一點尤其致命,很快就使有吸引力的房價變得難以承受。事實上,根據(jù)Bankrate的數(shù)據(jù),以目前6.58%的平均利率計算,一筆30萬美元貸款的月供將比美聯(lián)儲于2022年3月開始加息時(當時平均利率為4.40%)多出410美元。
因此,尤其是年輕的購房者,正在推遲他們的購房夢想。西北互惠銀行(Northwestern Mutual)的《2023年規(guī)劃與進展研究》(2023 Planning & Progress Study)顯示,近四分之一的Z世代和18%的千禧一代表示,由于經(jīng)濟不確定性,他們將推遲買房或建房,而在所有美國人中,這一比例為12%。蓋洛普指出,彌漫在市場上的悲觀情緒可能會讓首次購房者處于觀望狀態(tài)。
麥克德穆特說:“在過去的五年里,我們過去認為的‘起步房’房價大幅上漲,而工資和收入?yún)s沒有跟上房價漲幅。隨著租金上漲和房價上漲,潛在的購房者正受到來自兩方面的擠壓。當租金占據(jù)了租房者月收入的一半時,就很難攢下首付?!?/p>
盡管如此,根據(jù)蓋洛普的調(diào)查,房地產(chǎn)仍然被認為是最佳長期投資選擇:在該機構的經(jīng)濟和個人財務情況調(diào)查中,美國人對房地產(chǎn)的排名高于股票、債券、黃金和其他資產(chǎn)。不過,它的優(yōu)勢正在縮小。如今,大約34%的人認為這是最佳投資選擇,而去年這一比例為創(chuàng)紀錄的45%。這表明市場情緒在一年內(nèi)會發(fā)生多大的變化。
蓋洛普在另一份報告中指出:“過去一年的高利率使房地產(chǎn)市場降溫,抑制了消費者對房地產(chǎn)投資的熱情?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
High interest rates and soaring prices are killing Americans’ faith in the U.S. housing market. Just 21% of U.S. adults say now is a good time to buy a house, according to a new poll from Gallup. That’s the lowest homebuyer sentiment has ever been in data going back to 1978, when the organization first asked Americans the question. It’s also the second year in a row that sentiment has hit a new low—last year, just 30% of homebuyers thought the housing market was good for buyers.
To put in perspective how rapidly the mood has shifted, the record low before those two years was 50%, and that just happened in 2020.
It’s not hard to parse why home-buying sentiment is so low. Interest rates have increased substantially over the past year-plus, curbing affordability, and the median home price sits at $436,800, compared to $329,000 pre-pandemic. For the past few months, housing affordability has been at its lowest point.
The survey not only takes into account the overall health of the housing market, according to Gallup, but also whether or not Americans believe housing is still a good investment. For most years going back to 1978, at least half of Americans have had confidence in that. But that’s changed dramatically since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Record-low interest rates early in the pandemic helped to bifurcate financial outcomes for many Americans. Those who could afford to buy—and were able to find a house—lucked out as home values increased significantly; the Federal Reserve finds that homeowners have a median net worth 40 times that of renters.
Quickly rising home prices means owners were able to build equity more quickly over the past few years (mortgage holders saw their equity increase by $1 trillion from the end of 2021 to the end of 2022, according to an analysis from CoreLogic). But they also mean that current prospective buyers are being priced out of ownership completely.
“The sad reality is that homeownership is the best path to generational wealth building for families, and this is now something that is in jeopardy throughout the majority of the U.S.,” says Maureen McDermut, a realtor with Sotheby’s International-Santa Barbara. “Some relief needs to be brought to the market.”
Higher interest rates are especially killer, quickly making an attractive price unaffordable. In fact, the monthly mortgage payment on a $300,000 loan would be $410 more at today’s average rate of 6.58% than it would have been when the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, when the average was 4.40%, according to Bankrate.
As a result, younger buyers, in particular, are deferring their home ownership dreams. Almost a quarter of Gen Z and 18% of millennials says they will postpone buying or building a home due to economic uncertainty, compared to 12% of all Americans, according to Northwestern Mutual’s 2023 Planning & Progress Study. Gallup notes that the pessimism permeating the market may keep first-time buyers on the sideline.
“In the past five years, the price for what we used to consider ‘starter homes’ has dramatically increased, and wages [and] earnings have not kept up pace,” says McDermut. And “with rents increasing and home prices increasing, potential home buyers are being squeezed from both ends. It is hard to save for a down payment when rent is taking up half of the monthly income of renters.”
All of that said, real estate is still considered the best long-term investment, according to Gallup: Americans ranked in higher than stocks, bonds, gold, and other assets in the organization’s Economy and Personal Finance poll. Its winning margin is narrowing, though. Around 34% say it’s the best, compared to a record-high 45% last year. That shows how much sentiment can change in a single year.
“Higher interest rates over the past year have cooled the housing market, dampening consumer exuberance about real estate as an investment,” Gallup noted in a separate release.