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市場(chǎng)觀察家:美國(guó)債務(wù)危機(jī)無(wú)法解決的“可能性為零”

WILL DANIEL
2023-05-27

這位資深市場(chǎng)觀察家曾經(jīng)見證過(guò)數(shù)十次類似的情況,他依舊相信議員們能夠達(dá)成協(xié)議。

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2014年,賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)沃頓商學(xué)院金融學(xué)教授杰里米·西格爾。圖片來(lái)源:SCOTT MLYN—CNBC/NBCU PHOTO BANK/NBCUNIVERSAL經(jīng)蓋蒂圖片社提供

過(guò)去幾周,美國(guó)債務(wù)違約的可能性一直令華爾街惶恐不安。投資者擔(dān)心,面對(duì)華盛頓的政治僵局,提高債務(wù)上限的協(xié)議可能難以達(dá)成。令人擔(dān)心的是,眾議院的許多共和黨議員似乎對(duì)于危機(jī)的嚴(yán)重性嗤之以鼻,而對(duì)于財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)珍妮特·耶倫發(fā)出的關(guān)于美國(guó)債務(wù)違約的X日的末日警告,他們嘲諷她是在靠“通靈板”占卜。但沃頓商學(xué)院(Wharton)教授杰里米·西格爾卻并不擔(dān)心。這位資深市場(chǎng)觀察家曾經(jīng)見證過(guò)數(shù)十次類似的情況,他依舊相信議員們能夠達(dá)成協(xié)議。

他在本周的WisdomTree評(píng)論文章中寫道:“美國(guó)債務(wù)危機(jī)得不到解決的可能性為零,盡管可能到最后一分鐘之前,雙方都會(huì)相互表態(tài)和辯論,但最終他們會(huì)延長(zhǎng)債務(wù)償還期限或者提高債務(wù)上限?!?/p>

自從今年1月美國(guó)政府達(dá)到31.4萬(wàn)億美元的國(guó)家債務(wù)上限以來(lái),美國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)耶倫一直在利用“非常措施”維持政府運(yùn)行。她還多次警告如果超過(guò)提高債務(wù)上限的最終期限,美國(guó)將面臨“經(jīng)濟(jì)和財(cái)政崩潰”。耶倫表示這個(gè)最終日期最早是在6月1日,但高盛(Goldman Sachs)估計(jì)真正的X日是在6月中旬以后。

當(dāng)然,并非只有沃倫在擔(dān)心債務(wù)上限危機(jī)的影響。美國(guó)許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,債務(wù)違約將對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成災(zāi)難性后果,如穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)在1月估計(jì),如果發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,造成嚴(yán)重失業(yè),將使美國(guó)家庭的財(cái)富縮水12萬(wàn)億美元,這“相當(dāng)于全球金融危機(jī)期間美國(guó)家庭蒙受的損失”。

雖然自1960年以來(lái),美國(guó)已經(jīng)78次提高或修改債務(wù)上限,但最近這次債務(wù)上限危機(jī)即使不是史上最嚴(yán)重的一次,也是最嚴(yán)重的危機(jī)之一。瑞銀全球財(cái)富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)美洲首席投資官索立塔·馬爾切利在最近的一份研究報(bào)告中解釋稱“當(dāng)前與債務(wù)上限辯論有關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),公認(rèn)高于自2011年以來(lái)的任何年份”,在2011年,直到X日前兩天,立法者才就提高債務(wù)上限達(dá)成協(xié)議。

馬爾切利和華爾街的許多分析師依舊相信,政府能夠及時(shí)提高債務(wù)上限。她寫道:“經(jīng)過(guò)最近幾周數(shù)次言辭激烈的交鋒之后,兩黨已經(jīng)坐到了談判桌上,并且似乎確實(shí)都有意避免一場(chǎng)財(cái)政災(zāi)難。”

沃頓商學(xué)院教授西格爾認(rèn)為,歸根結(jié)底這還是一個(gè)政治問(wèn)題,而且議員不希望讓人們認(rèn)為他們是愚蠢的,最終“會(huì)又一次有權(quán)宜之計(jì)”,在最后一刻提高債務(wù)上限。

他在上周發(fā)表的Wisdom Tree評(píng)論文章中寫道:“我認(rèn)為在某些方面,民主黨人感受到了滿足共和黨人要求的壓力。我認(rèn)為,如果他們做出妥協(xié),這對(duì)于民主黨人而言在政治上是一個(gè)很好的結(jié)果。如果共和黨人能實(shí)現(xiàn)一半的目的,就可以視為是一場(chǎng)勝利。”共和黨一直在推動(dòng)減少開支,以及加強(qiáng)醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助和其他聯(lián)邦補(bǔ)助項(xiàng)目的工作要求等,但民主黨卻表示這“毫無(wú)希望”,而白宮卻尋求對(duì)富人和大公司加稅,但在支出方面絕不讓步。

財(cái)富管理公司Key Private Bank的首席投資官喬治·馬特約也認(rèn)為議員最終能夠達(dá)成協(xié)議。該公司管理的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模超過(guò)500億美元。

馬特約對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“債務(wù)上限問(wèn)題會(huì)得到解決。但近期會(huì)有更多市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)?!瘪R特約提到了2011年,當(dāng)時(shí)由于提高債務(wù)上限的協(xié)議幾乎無(wú)法達(dá)成,市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了一些動(dòng)蕩,但最終“市場(chǎng)恢復(fù)了上行趨勢(shì),并且?guī)缀跻宦飞蠞q?!?/p>

財(cái)富管理公司Bahnsen Group的首席投資官大衛(wèi)·巴恩森對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志稱“達(dá)成債務(wù)上限協(xié)議是必然的。”

他說(shuō)道:“每一位市場(chǎng)參與者都清楚這一點(diǎn)。唯一的問(wèn)題是短期交易者會(huì)在達(dá)成協(xié)議的過(guò)程中經(jīng)歷波動(dòng),我們將這種波動(dòng)稱為噪音。我們向投資者發(fā)出的主要信息是,不要理會(huì)與債務(wù)上限有關(guān)的噪音,要關(guān)注能夠增加現(xiàn)金流的投資,而有持續(xù)增發(fā)股息這一傳統(tǒng)的公司基本上都符合這個(gè)條件。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

2014年,賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)沃頓商學(xué)院金融學(xué)教授杰里米·西格爾。

過(guò)去幾周,美國(guó)債務(wù)違約的可能性一直令華爾街惶恐不安。投資者擔(dān)心,面對(duì)華盛頓的政治僵局,提高債務(wù)上限的協(xié)議可能難以達(dá)成。令人擔(dān)心的是,眾議院的許多共和黨議員似乎對(duì)于危機(jī)的嚴(yán)重性嗤之以鼻,而對(duì)于財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)珍妮特·耶倫發(fā)出的關(guān)于美國(guó)債務(wù)違約的X日的末日警告,他們嘲諷她是在靠“通靈板”占卜。但沃頓商學(xué)院(Wharton)教授杰里米·西格爾卻并不擔(dān)心。這位資深市場(chǎng)觀察家曾經(jīng)見證過(guò)數(shù)十次類似的情況,他依舊相信議員們能夠達(dá)成協(xié)議。

他在本周的WisdomTree評(píng)論文章中寫道:“美國(guó)債務(wù)危機(jī)得不到解決的可能性為零,盡管可能到最后一分鐘之前,雙方都會(huì)相互表態(tài)和辯論,但最終他們會(huì)延長(zhǎng)債務(wù)償還期限或者提高債務(wù)上限?!?/p>

自從今年1月美國(guó)政府達(dá)到31.4萬(wàn)億美元的國(guó)家債務(wù)上限以來(lái),美國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)耶倫一直在利用“非常措施”維持政府運(yùn)行。她還多次警告如果超過(guò)提高債務(wù)上限的最終期限,美國(guó)將面臨“經(jīng)濟(jì)和財(cái)政崩潰”。耶倫表示這個(gè)最終日期最早是在6月1日,但高盛(Goldman Sachs)估計(jì)真正的X日是在6月中旬以后。

當(dāng)然,并非只有沃倫在擔(dān)心債務(wù)上限危機(jī)的影響。美國(guó)許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,債務(wù)違約將對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成災(zāi)難性后果,如穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)在1月估計(jì),如果發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,造成嚴(yán)重失業(yè),將使美國(guó)家庭的財(cái)富縮水12萬(wàn)億美元,這“相當(dāng)于全球金融危機(jī)期間美國(guó)家庭蒙受的損失”。

雖然自1960年以來(lái),美國(guó)已經(jīng)78次提高或修改債務(wù)上限,但最近這次債務(wù)上限危機(jī)即使不是史上最嚴(yán)重的一次,也是最嚴(yán)重的危機(jī)之一。瑞銀全球財(cái)富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)美洲首席投資官索立塔·馬爾切利在最近的一份研究報(bào)告中解釋稱“當(dāng)前與債務(wù)上限辯論有關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),公認(rèn)高于自2011年以來(lái)的任何年份”,在2011年,直到X日前兩天,立法者才就提高債務(wù)上限達(dá)成協(xié)議。

馬爾切利和華爾街的許多分析師依舊相信,政府能夠及時(shí)提高債務(wù)上限。她寫道:“經(jīng)過(guò)最近幾周數(shù)次言辭激烈的交鋒之后,兩黨已經(jīng)坐到了談判桌上,并且似乎確實(shí)都有意避免一場(chǎng)財(cái)政災(zāi)難?!?/p>

沃頓商學(xué)院教授西格爾認(rèn)為,歸根結(jié)底這還是一個(gè)政治問(wèn)題,而且議員不希望讓人們認(rèn)為他們是愚蠢的,最終“會(huì)又一次有權(quán)宜之計(jì)”,在最后一刻提高債務(wù)上限。

他在上周發(fā)表的Wisdom Tree評(píng)論文章中寫道:“我認(rèn)為在某些方面,民主黨人感受到了滿足共和黨人要求的壓力。我認(rèn)為,如果他們做出妥協(xié),這對(duì)于民主黨人而言在政治上是一個(gè)很好的結(jié)果。如果共和黨人能實(shí)現(xiàn)一半的目的,就可以視為是一場(chǎng)勝利?!惫埠忘h一直在推動(dòng)減少開支,以及加強(qiáng)醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助和其他聯(lián)邦補(bǔ)助項(xiàng)目的工作要求等,但民主黨卻表示這“毫無(wú)希望”,而白宮卻尋求對(duì)富人和大公司加稅,但在支出方面絕不讓步。

財(cái)富管理公司Key Private Bank的首席投資官喬治·馬特約也認(rèn)為議員最終能夠達(dá)成協(xié)議。該公司管理的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模超過(guò)500億美元。

馬特約對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“債務(wù)上限問(wèn)題會(huì)得到解決。但近期會(huì)有更多市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)?!瘪R特約提到了2011年,當(dāng)時(shí)由于提高債務(wù)上限的協(xié)議幾乎無(wú)法達(dá)成,市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了一些動(dòng)蕩,但最終“市場(chǎng)恢復(fù)了上行趨勢(shì),并且?guī)缀跻宦飞蠞q?!?/p>

財(cái)富管理公司Bahnsen Group的首席投資官大衛(wèi)·巴恩森對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志稱“達(dá)成債務(wù)上限協(xié)議是必然的?!?/p>

他說(shuō)道:“每一位市場(chǎng)參與者都清楚這一點(diǎn)。唯一的問(wèn)題是短期交易者會(huì)在達(dá)成協(xié)議的過(guò)程中經(jīng)歷波動(dòng),我們將這種波動(dòng)稱為噪音。我們向投資者發(fā)出的主要信息是,不要理會(huì)與債務(wù)上限有關(guān)的噪音,要關(guān)注能夠增加現(xiàn)金流的投資,而有持續(xù)增發(fā)股息這一傳統(tǒng)的公司基本上都符合這個(gè)條件?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Wall Street has been wobbling under the weight of a potential U.S. debt default over the past few weeks. Investors are concerned that a deal to raise the debt ceiling could be hard to come by amid political gridlock in Washington. Worryingly, many House GOP members seem to be laughing off the seriousness of the threat, mocking Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s apocalyptic warnings of crossing the X-date, when the U.S. will default, as something from a “Ouija board.” But Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel isn’t concerned. The veteran market watcher has seen this dozens of times before and continues to believe lawmakers will come to an agreement.

“There is zero chance the debt issue will not get resolved even though there will be posturing and debate right up to the last minute before timelines are extended or the debt limit is raised,” Siegel wrote in his WisdomTree commentary this week.

Treasury Secretary Yellen has been using “extraordinary measures” to keep the government running since hitting the $31.4 trillion national debt ceiling in January. She’s also repeatedly warned the U.S. faces “economic and financial collapse” if the deadline to increase the debt ceiling passes. That could be as soon as June 1, according to Yellen, but Goldman Sachs estimates the true X-date won’t be until mid-June.

Yellen isn’t the only one worried about the fallout from the debt ceiling drama, of course. Economists across the nation have argued that a debt default could have disastrous consequences for the U.S. economy, with Moody’s Analytics estimating in January that it could wipe out $12 trillion in household wealth in a job-killing recession that would be “comparable to that suffered during the global financial crisis.”

Even though the debt ceiling has been raised or altered 78 times since 1960, this latest debt ceiling crisis is one of if not the worst in history. Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer of the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, explained in a recent research note that “the risks associated with the debt ceiling debate are admittedly higher today than at any time since 2011” when it took until just two days before the X-date for lawmakers to agree to raise the debt ceiling.

Still, Marcelli, and most Wall Streeters, continue to believe the debt ceiling will be raised in time. “After some acrimonious exchanges in recent weeks, both political parties have arrived at the negotiating table and appear genuinely interested in avoiding a fiscal calamity,” she wrote.

Wharton’s Siegel believes it all comes down to politics, and lawmakers don’t want to look foolish, which ultimately will lead to “another kick the can down the road measure” to extend the debt ceiling at the last minute.

“I believe Democrats feel pressured to meet the Republicans in some way. I think if they met them halfway, that is a good political position for the Democrats. If the Republicans get half of what they want, it can be regarded as a victory,” he wrote in his Wisdom Tree commentary last week. Republicans have been pushing for the typical spending cuts, in addition to work requirements for Medicaid and other federal assistance programs, which Democrats have called a “nonstarter,” while the White House is seeking tax increases for the wealthy and some large companies while holding the line on spending.

George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank, a wealth manager with over $50 billion in assets under management, also believes lawmakers will ultimately come to an agreement.

“The debt ceiling issue will get resolved,” he told Fortune. “But there’s going to be some more market volatility in the near term.” Mateyo pointed to 2011, where markets faced some pain as the debt ceiling came close to not being raised, but eventually “resumed an upward trend and almost never looked back.”

David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of wealth management firm the Bahnsen Group, told Fortune “a debt ceiling deal is a certainty.”

“Every market actor knows it,” he said. “The only issue along the way is short-term traders playing the ebbs and flows of the process, and we call that noise. Our main message to investors is to ignore the debt ceiling noise and pursue investments that provide growing cash flows, which largely coincide with companies that have a long history of growing their dividends.”

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