在購房方面，嬰兒潮一代與千禧一代是敵是友？
CHLOE BERGER
2023-05-30
在競爭購買同樣的住房時，嬰兒潮一代比千禧一代更具優(yōu)勢。圖片來源：MOMO PRODUCTIONS—GETTY IMAGES
一直以來，千禧一代都沒有趕上什么好時候，新冠疫情對于他們來說就像一把雙刃劍。一些人失去了住所，但很多人在新冠疫情期間攢了不少錢，而且其財富較之前翻了一番。這一現(xiàn)象與千禧一代進入購房高峰年齡相吻合，新冠疫情第二年，嬰兒新生潮便開始涌現(xiàn)，此時，近半數(shù)的千禧一代開始加入由來已久的美國夢大軍——遷至郊外。然而，在了解了當前房產(chǎn)市場的現(xiàn)狀之后，千禧一代腦海中響起的可能是查理?布朗悲愴的音樂，并選擇悄然離場。大量的學生債、衰退以及超過其薪資增速的生活成本，都讓千禧一代無法像其父輩或祖父輩那樣積累財富。更有甚者，美國一位專注于房產(chǎn)研究的著名經(jīng)濟學家在一番計算之后發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個驚人的事實：千禧一代的父輩，也就是看似趕上了過去50年中所有經(jīng)濟福利的嬰兒潮一代，正在搶奪所有的起步房，并將其變?yōu)樽约旱耐诵葑∷?，而這位經(jīng)濟學家自己就是千禧一代。
阿里?沃爾夫是Zonda的首席經(jīng)濟學家，研究房地產(chǎn)至少有10年時間。Zonda是房地產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)與咨詢服務提供商。作為一名千禧一代，沃爾夫親身經(jīng)歷了千禧一代所面臨的困境。沃爾夫住在南加州，該州基本就是美國房產(chǎn)短缺以及隨之而來的代際沖突的代名詞。
沃爾夫稱，隨著嬰兒潮一代人數(shù)的減少，千禧一代終于進入了房地產(chǎn)市場，兩者之間開始直接競爭有著類似定價和大小的房產(chǎn)。
沃爾夫?qū)Α敦敻弧冯s志說：“在當今的房產(chǎn)市場，嬰兒潮一代與部分千禧一代的購房重疊度很高?！彼芯康膶ο蟀粘怖先藡雰撼狈蚱藓蜎]有小孩或孩子不大的千禧一代。事實上，前一組人群正在尋找其退休后的住所，而后者則在尋找其起步房，雙方都得為此付出代價?！斑@里的主要區(qū)別在于，嬰兒潮一代可以通過出售其現(xiàn)有房產(chǎn)來利用其房產(chǎn)凈值，并以此來提供比后者更具吸引力的房屋報價，何況后者依然是在租房?！?/p>
嬰兒潮一代正在經(jīng)歷兩件事情。沃爾夫解釋說：來自于美國退休人員協(xié)會（AARP）的數(shù)據(jù)線顯示，大多數(shù)嬰兒潮一代打算住在現(xiàn)居所，但全美地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀商協(xié)會（National Association of Realtors）稱，如今的頂級買家和房產(chǎn)賣方都是嬰兒潮一代。越來越多的嬰兒潮一代很快將退休。育兒成本的飆升讓嬰兒潮一代通過變賣房產(chǎn)或搬遷至孩子附近，來幫助其千禧一代的孩子，并提供額外的幫助來照看在新冠疫情間誕生的孫子輩。不過具有諷刺意味的是，此舉將其孩子（及其孩子的朋友）擠出了房產(chǎn)市場。沃爾夫稱，Zonda已經(jīng)開始通過“嬰兒追逐者”（Baby Chaser）指數(shù)來跟蹤這一動態(tài)。該指數(shù)跟蹤了那些嬰兒潮一代父母會盡職盡責地跟隨孩子搬遷的城市（最終助推了一些生活成本較低的城市出現(xiàn)了更為顯著的遷移模式，例如夏洛特、北卡羅來納州。）”沃爾夫表示，Zonda數(shù)據(jù)現(xiàn)實，25%的嬰兒潮一代都遷至離其孫子輩一代更近的地域。最近，Zonda發(fā)現(xiàn)，這些嬰兒追逐者通常會搬遷至東南部，該地區(qū)已經(jīng)因其對各個年齡段都十分友好的房價而成為了購房者的熱土。
令千禧一代感到尷尬的是，父母輩在看房開價時會給出比自己更高的價格。沃爾夫解釋說，嬰兒潮一代有自己的優(yōu)勢，然而，他們尋找的房子與千禧一代尋找的起步房類似，面積都不大，但嬰兒潮一代通常能夠現(xiàn)金全款買房。
有鑒于年輕人本身的特點以及在積累財富方面的霉運，千禧一代在購房方面存在劣勢，因為嬰兒潮一代通常在購房方面顯得“財大氣粗”，而且對于價格沒有那么敏感。沃爾夫?qū)Α敦敻弧冯s志說，值得留意的一點在于：一些嬰兒潮一代和千禧一代都在尋找同樣的房型，而且嬰兒潮一代經(jīng)常有條件給出更有競爭力的報價。因此，由于與其父母一代重疊，“希望加入購房陣營的年輕人”在房產(chǎn)市場中面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。
在某一點上，千禧一代與嬰兒潮一代之間的競爭更像是有嬰兒潮一代幫襯的千禧一代與嬰兒潮一代自身的競爭。由于手頭比其孩子更寬裕，很多父母稱自己給了不少贊助，就是為了讓孩子獲得優(yōu)勢，并在動蕩的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境中為孩子提供一臂之力。在其父母過世后，千禧一代有望獲得更多的意外之財和慷慨贈與，正如經(jīng)濟學家諾亞·史密斯在推文中寫道，千禧一代在其50歲左右時會發(fā)現(xiàn)自己的人生軌跡發(fā)生變化，而且其父母會留給其寶貴卻又令人焦慮的房地產(chǎn)。盡管如此，即便千禧一代在晚些時候能夠迎頭趕上，但這種方式“依然不是一個社會進行財富分配的好方法?！?/p>
即便最富有的千禧一代也都在租房住，而且買房人與租房人之間還掀起了一場不同的戰(zhàn)爭，已購房的千禧一代在對抗其亦敵亦友的嬰兒潮一代時會顯得更從容一些。沃爾夫補充說：“那些租房住的千禧一代當前正面臨著真正的挑戰(zhàn)，因為房價升高了，房貸利率高居不下，而且整體房產(chǎn)供應低迷?！焙艽笠徊糠謰雰撼比耸慷际欠课菟姓摺Ｎ譅柗蛑赋?，43%的有房嬰兒潮一代沒有抵押貸款。她指出，這個群體的另一個優(yōu)勢在于，他們在股市中有更多的投資。這兩個優(yōu)勢加起來“讓很多嬰兒潮一代在財富總量方面處于健康水平?！?/p>
另一方面，很多千禧一代直接放棄購房，將美國夢遠遠拋開，因為他們覺得這種夢僅適合于少數(shù)人，而且都是很久遠的事情了。哈里斯研究中心（Harris）的調(diào)查顯示，大多數(shù)（56%）的千禧一代認為，其購買自有房屋的夢想已經(jīng)破滅。令人感到些許樂觀的是，阿默普萊斯金融公司（Ameriprise Financial）發(fā)現(xiàn)約60%的千禧一代對于自身經(jīng)濟狀況感到十分樂觀，出現(xiàn)這一情況的原因在于，78%的千禧一代依賴于其父母提供的一些幫助。對于千禧一代來說，大環(huán)境也有所好轉(zhuǎn)，沃爾夫解釋說，那些還在租房的人“不應該認為市場在近期會向買方傾斜”，因為供應依然有限，而且還存在對于價格不怎么敏感的買家。經(jīng)濟的衰退可能會扭轉(zhuǎn)這一局面，但沃爾夫指出，經(jīng)濟衰退也不能改變的事實在于，為大量買方修建平價房屋將變得越發(fā)困難。她還表示，盡管房地產(chǎn)市場可能會降溫，但“在可預見的未來，購買入門級房產(chǎn)對于很多看房者來說依然是一個挑戰(zhàn)?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)）
譯者：馮豐
審校：夏林
一直以來，千禧一代都沒有趕上什么好時候，新冠疫情對于他們來說就像一把雙刃劍。一些人失去了住所，但很多人在新冠疫情期間攢了不少錢，而且其財富較之前翻了一番。這一現(xiàn)象與千禧一代進入購房高峰年齡相吻合，新冠疫情第二年，嬰兒新生潮便開始涌現(xiàn)，此時，近半數(shù)的千禧一代開始加入由來已久的美國夢大軍——遷至郊外。然而，在了解了當前房產(chǎn)市場的現(xiàn)狀之后，千禧一代腦海中響起的可能是查理?布朗悲愴的音樂，并選擇悄然離場。大量的學生債、衰退以及超過其薪資增速的生活成本，都讓千禧一代無法像其父輩或祖父輩那樣積累財富。更有甚者，美國一位專注于房產(chǎn)研究的著名經(jīng)濟學家在一番計算之后發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個驚人的事實：千禧一代的父輩，也就是看似趕上了過去50年中所有經(jīng)濟福利的嬰兒潮一代，正在搶奪所有的起步房，并將其變?yōu)樽约旱耐诵葑∷?，而這位經(jīng)濟學家自己就是千禧一代。
阿里?沃爾夫是Zonda的首席經(jīng)濟學家，研究房地產(chǎn)至少有10年時間。Zonda是房地產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)與咨詢服務提供商。作為一名千禧一代，沃爾夫親身經(jīng)歷了千禧一代所面臨的困境。沃爾夫住在南加州，該州基本就是美國房產(chǎn)短缺以及隨之而來的代際沖突的代名詞。
沃爾夫稱，隨著嬰兒潮一代人數(shù)的減少，千禧一代終于進入了房地產(chǎn)市場，兩者之間開始直接競爭有著類似定價和大小的房產(chǎn)。
沃爾夫?qū)Α敦敻弧冯s志說：“在當今的房產(chǎn)市場，嬰兒潮一代與部分千禧一代的購房重疊度很高?！彼芯康膶ο蟀粘怖先藡雰撼狈蚱藓蜎]有小孩或孩子不大的千禧一代。事實上，前一組人群正在尋找其退休后的住所，而后者則在尋找其起步房，雙方都得為此付出代價。“這里的主要區(qū)別在于，嬰兒潮一代可以通過出售其現(xiàn)有房產(chǎn)來利用其房產(chǎn)凈值，并以此來提供比后者更具吸引力的房屋報價，何況后者依然是在租房?！?/p>
嬰兒潮一代正在經(jīng)歷兩件事情。沃爾夫解釋說：來自于美國退休人員協(xié)會（AARP）的數(shù)據(jù)線顯示，大多數(shù)嬰兒潮一代打算住在現(xiàn)居所，但全美地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀商協(xié)會（National Association of Realtors）稱，如今的頂級買家和房產(chǎn)賣方都是嬰兒潮一代。越來越多的嬰兒潮一代很快將退休。育兒成本的飆升讓嬰兒潮一代通過變賣房產(chǎn)或搬遷至孩子附近，來幫助其千禧一代的孩子，并提供額外的幫助來照看在新冠疫情間誕生的孫子輩。不過具有諷刺意味的是，此舉將其孩子（及其孩子的朋友）擠出了房產(chǎn)市場。沃爾夫稱，Zonda已經(jīng)開始通過“嬰兒追逐者”（Baby Chaser）指數(shù)來跟蹤這一動態(tài)。該指數(shù)跟蹤了那些嬰兒潮一代父母會盡職盡責地跟隨孩子搬遷的城市（最終助推了一些生活成本較低的城市出現(xiàn)了更為顯著的遷移模式，例如夏洛特、北卡羅來納州。）”沃爾夫表示，Zonda數(shù)據(jù)現(xiàn)實，25%的嬰兒潮一代都遷至離其孫子輩一代更近的地域。最近，Zonda發(fā)現(xiàn)，這些嬰兒追逐者通常會搬遷至東南部，該地區(qū)已經(jīng)因其對各個年齡段都十分友好的房價而成為了購房者的熱土。
令千禧一代感到尷尬的是，父母輩在看房開價時會給出比自己更高的價格。沃爾夫解釋說，嬰兒潮一代有自己的優(yōu)勢，然而，他們尋找的房子與千禧一代尋找的起步房類似，面積都不大，但嬰兒潮一代通常能夠現(xiàn)金全款買房。
有鑒于年輕人本身的特點以及在積累財富方面的霉運，千禧一代在購房方面存在劣勢，因為嬰兒潮一代通常在購房方面顯得“財大氣粗”，而且對于價格沒有那么敏感。沃爾夫?qū)Α敦敻弧冯s志說，值得留意的一點在于：一些嬰兒潮一代和千禧一代都在尋找同樣的房型，而且嬰兒潮一代經(jīng)常有條件給出更有競爭力的報價。因此，由于與其父母一代重疊，“希望加入購房陣營的年輕人”在房產(chǎn)市場中面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。
在某一點上，千禧一代與嬰兒潮一代之間的競爭更像是有嬰兒潮一代幫襯的千禧一代與嬰兒潮一代自身的競爭。由于手頭比其孩子更寬裕，很多父母稱自己給了不少贊助，就是為了讓孩子獲得優(yōu)勢，并在動蕩的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境中為孩子提供一臂之力。在其父母過世后，千禧一代有望獲得更多的意外之財和慷慨贈與，正如經(jīng)濟學家諾亞·史密斯在推文中寫道，千禧一代在其50歲左右時會發(fā)現(xiàn)自己的人生軌跡發(fā)生變化，而且其父母會留給其寶貴卻又令人焦慮的房地產(chǎn)。盡管如此，即便千禧一代在晚些時候能夠迎頭趕上，但這種方式“依然不是一個社會進行財富分配的好方法?！?/p>
即便最富有的千禧一代也都在租房住，而且買房人與租房人之間還掀起了一場不同的戰(zhàn)爭，已購房的千禧一代在對抗其亦敵亦友的嬰兒潮一代時會顯得更從容一些。沃爾夫補充說：“那些租房住的千禧一代當前正面臨著真正的挑戰(zhàn)，因為房價升高了，房貸利率高居不下，而且整體房產(chǎn)供應低迷。”很大一部分嬰兒潮人士都是房屋所有者。沃爾夫指出，43%的有房嬰兒潮一代沒有抵押貸款。她指出，這個群體的另一個優(yōu)勢在于，他們在股市中有更多的投資。這兩個優(yōu)勢加起來“讓很多嬰兒潮一代在財富總量方面處于健康水平。”
另一方面，很多千禧一代直接放棄購房，將美國夢遠遠拋開，因為他們覺得這種夢僅適合于少數(shù)人，而且都是很久遠的事情了。哈里斯研究中心（Harris）的調(diào)查顯示，大多數(shù)（56%）的千禧一代認為，其購買自有房屋的夢想已經(jīng)破滅。令人感到些許樂觀的是，阿默普萊斯金融公司（Ameriprise Financial）發(fā)現(xiàn)約60%的千禧一代對于自身經(jīng)濟狀況感到十分樂觀，出現(xiàn)這一情況的原因在于，78%的千禧一代依賴于其父母提供的一些幫助。對于千禧一代來說，大環(huán)境也有所好轉(zhuǎn)，沃爾夫解釋說，那些還在租房的人“不應該認為市場在近期會向買方傾斜”，因為供應依然有限，而且還存在對于價格不怎么敏感的買家。經(jīng)濟的衰退可能會扭轉(zhuǎn)這一局面，但沃爾夫指出，經(jīng)濟衰退也不能改變的事實在于，為大量買方修建平價房屋將變得越發(fā)困難。她還表示，盡管房地產(chǎn)市場可能會降溫，但“在可預見的未來，購買入門級房產(chǎn)對于很多看房者來說依然是一個挑戰(zhàn)。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：馮豐
審校：夏林
Perennially offered the short end of the stick, the pandemic turned out to be a double-edged sword for millennials. While some moved home, many were able to save up and come out of COVID-19 twice as wealthy as they were before it. This coincided with the generation reaching peak homebuying age, and the second year of the pandemic saw the beginning of a baby boom, as nearly half of the generation caught the fever of the age-old American ambition to move to the suburbs. But millennials might as well cue the sad Charlie Brown music and slink away when they look at the current state of the housing market. Massive student loans, the Great Recession, and a cost of living that outpaces their salaries, all keep this generation unable to build wealth like their parents and grandparents. And to top it off, one of the country’s leading housing-focused economists, herself a millennial, has crunched the numbers and found the ugly truth: That millennials’ parents, the boomers who seemed to get all the economic breaks of the last 50 years, are stealing all the starter homes and making them retirement homes instead.
Covering housing for at least 10 years, Ali Wolf has steadily ascended to the role of chief economist for Zonda, a distributor of housing market data and consulting. A millennial herself, Wolf has personal experience of what her generation is up against, as she lives in southern California, a state that personifies America’s housing shortage and an ensuing generational clash.
As baby boomers downsize and millennials finally enter the housing market, Wolf says, they are in direct competition for similarly priced and sized homes.
“In today’s housing market,” Wolf tells Fortune, “there’s a big overlap between select baby boomers and select millennials.” She used the archetype of the empty nester boomer couple and the millennial couple with no or young children. Essentially, the former group is looking for their retirement home and the latter is looking for their starter home, and something has to give. “The key difference here is that the baby boomer will likely be able to tap home equity by selling their existing home, allowing them to perhaps make a more compelling offer on the home compared to the millennials, especially if the latter group are still renting.”
There’s two things happening with baby boomers, as Wolf explains: Data from AARP shows that most boomers are looking to stay where they are right now, but the National Association of Realtors shows that boomers are the top buyers and sellers right now. And many more boomers are looking to retire soon. The soaring cost of childcare has boomers looking to help out their millennial kids by selling up and moving close to provide extra help rearing the pandemic babies, but that’s ironically boxing their kids (and their kids’ friends) out of the market. Wolf said Zonda has started tracking this dynamic with what she calls the Baby Chaser Index, which tracks the cities where boomers follow their children most dutifully (ending up fueling greater migration patterns in formerly affordable cities like Charlotte, North Carolina). According to Wolf, Zonda data shows that 25% of boomers are relocating to get closer to their grandchildren. Most recently, Zonda found that these baby chasers are often relocating to the Southeast, a market that has become a hotspot due to its relative affordability for home buyers of all ages.
It all leads to an awkward hello to mom when she outbids you at the open house. Boomers have the advantage, while they’re looking for the same smaller house as someone pining for a starter house, and they’re often able to leverage an all-cash bid, explains Wolf.
By nature of being younger and simply unlucky when it comes to building wealth, millennials have the disadvantage when it comes to getting the house, as boomers are often coming to the market “equity rich” and less price/rate sensitive. Wolf tells Fortune that one important point just shouldn’t be overlooked: Some boomers and millennials are looking for the same home and boomers are often positioned to make more competitive offers. So “younger folks looking to get on the homeownership ladder” face a big challenge in this “overlap with their parents’ generation.
At a certain point, the millennials versus boomer battle is more the war between millennials getting help from boomers and boomers themselves. Dealt an arguably easier hand than their children, many parents report making a financial sacrifice to give their children a leg up and help them in the current volatile economic scene. Millennials might be able to expect larger windfalls and generosity when their parents pass, as economist Noah Smith tweets that the generational will see their trajectory change when they hit their 50s and their parents leave them that golden and much fraught over real estate. That being said, even if millennials are to catch up later in life, it “ is also not a great way of structuring wealth distribution in a society.”
Even the richest of millennials are renting, and those who are buying versus renting wage a different battle, as millennials who own their homes have it a bit easier when it comes to going up against their boomer frenemies.“The millennials that are renting are facing the true challenge today because prices are high, mortgage rates are high, and overall housing supply is low,” Wolf adds. A larger portion of baby boomers are homeowners, as Wolf points out that 43% of the cohort owns their house without a mortgage. The group also has an advantage given their higher investments in the stock market, she points out. The two combined “have allowed many baby boomers to be in a healthy place in terms of total wealth.”
On the other side of the coin, many millennials have simply given up on having a home, eschewing the American Dream as something that only existed for a few a long time ago. A Harris poll finds that most (56%) in the generation believe their dream of owning a house to be dead. Recently a bit less pessimistic, Ameriprise Financial finds that about six out of 10 millennials are feeling good about finances, which likely is because 78% are relying on some help from their families in getting by. Things aren’t looking up for millennials though, as Wolf explains that those who are renting “shouldn’t expect the market to get much easier in the near-term” as supply is still limited and there are buyers who are less sensitive to gouged prices. A recession could turn it around, but Wolf notes that doesn’t change the fact that building affordable housing with a vast buyer pool is increasingly difficult. While the housing market might cool, “buying an entry-level home will likely remain a challenge for home shoppers for the foreseeable future,” she adds.
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