千禧一代正進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)市場，但他們比嬰兒潮一代需要賺更多的錢
Sydney Lake
2023-11-19
圖片來源：Getty Images
2023年的首次購房者看起來與嬰兒潮一代購買首套房時(shí)的情況略有不同。由于房價(jià)上漲和中等水平庫存，與過去相比，新業(yè)主往往年齡更大、收入更高，而且更可能是單身或無子女。
這是根據(jù)美國全國房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會（National Association of Realtors）在11月13日發(fā)布的《2023年購房者和賣家概況報(bào)告》（2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers）得出的結(jié)論。自1981年以來，美國全國房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會每年都會發(fā)布該報(bào)告。今年，該報(bào)告基于近7,000名在2022年7月至2023年6月期間購買主要住宅的買家的反饋。
報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn)，今年首次購房者的典型年齡為35歲。在美國全國房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會長達(dá)四十年的數(shù)據(jù)中，該年齡段排第二位，僅次于去年的36歲，也高于許多嬰兒潮一代首次購房時(shí)的年齡。根據(jù)《伯克利經(jīng)濟(jì)評論》（Berkeley Economic Review）的數(shù)據(jù)，盡管抵押貸款利率在1981年年底達(dá)到了18%，但仍然有45%的嬰兒潮一代能夠在25歲到34歲之間購買第一套住房。
他們的收入也高于過去的首次購房者，收入中位數(shù)為95,900美元，高于去年的71,000美元，而且首付比例一般為總價(jià)的8%，是自1997年以來的最高水平（當(dāng)時(shí)的首付比例為9%），這反映出住房市場越來越難以負(fù)擔(dān)。
他們單身的可能性更大，有孩子的可能性要小得多，而且明顯更加多樣化。事實(shí)上，美國全國房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會的報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn)，只有52%的首次購房者已婚，而重復(fù)購房者的這一比例為63%，36%的首次購房者家中有未滿18歲的孩子，低于去年的44%。
他們的人數(shù)也比去年多。在2022年跌至26%的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低點(diǎn)之后，今年首次購房者卷土重來，占銷售額的32%。雖然這對處于觀望狀態(tài)的潛在首次購房者來說是一個(gè)充滿希望的趨勢，但這一比例依舊遠(yuǎn)低于1981年以來38%的平均水平，也是同期第四低的比例。
報(bào)告強(qiáng)調(diào)，千禧一代依然在為進(jìn)入住房市場而奮斗，無論成本有多高、需要花費(fèi)多長時(shí)間，無論這是否意味著削減奢侈品和娛樂支出，甚至從401(k)退休金計(jì)劃、股票和加密貨幣中提取資金。事實(shí)上，近四分之一的首次購房者依靠這些類型的資產(chǎn)來購買房子，另有23%的人使用禮物或從朋友或家人那里借來的貸款來支付首付款。
盡管抵押貸款利率徘徊在8%左右，房價(jià)連續(xù)七個(gè)月上漲，但有一點(diǎn)是顯而易見的：千禧一代已經(jīng)厭倦了等待更好的房市。事實(shí)上，根據(jù)美國全國房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會的報(bào)告，60%的首次購房者表示，購房的主要原因是希望擁有一套住房，而不是為了工作或離朋友或家人更近而搬家。
位于蒙特西托的蘇富比國際房地產(chǎn)（Sotheby’s International）的經(jīng)紀(jì)人莫林·麥克德穆特對《財(cái)富》雜志表示：“擁有一套住房的愿望從未真正消失。我認(rèn)為，這就是為什么盡管利率和房價(jià)上漲，許多人仍舊在進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)市場。”
首次購房者的年齡比過去幾代人都要大,他們厭倦了等待
首次購房者年齡偏大的趨勢在近期不太可能改變。由于住房市場狀況是幾十年來最難以承受的，年輕一代發(fā)現(xiàn)自己陷入了困境——無法支付中等價(jià)位房屋的首付款，也無法支付利率8%帶來的高額抵押貸款。這意味著可以進(jìn)入住房市場的20多歲的年輕人越來越少，從而推高了首次購房者的年齡。
麥克德穆特說：“許多年輕的千禧一代和Z世代正在通過與父母同住，甚至與朋友合租來積攢購房首付款。由于‘入門級’住房已經(jīng)基本被淘汰，對大多數(shù)人而言，這樣做幾乎是必不可少的?！?/p>
此外，千禧一代已經(jīng)厭倦了袖手旁觀。他們即將步入收入高峰期，希望開始組建家庭。
專為首次購房者服務(wù)的抵押貸款公司Homebuyer.com的創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官丹·格林告訴《財(cái)富》雜志，首次購房者的動機(jī)與重復(fù)購房者和“改善型”購房者不同。他說，他們是由五個(gè)“D”驅(qū)動的：鉆石、尿布、文憑、換辦公桌和狗。
格林說：“無論你是要結(jié)婚、生子、畢業(yè)、找新工作，還是想要一個(gè)院子養(yǎng)狗，在過去的兩年里，首次購房者把所有這些原因都擱置了。但你不能永遠(yuǎn)推遲生活計(jì)劃?！?/p>
租房與買房的心態(tài)對比
租房還是買房，這個(gè)由來已久的爭論在千禧一代身上并沒有消失——隨著租房價(jià)格與購房成本的同步上漲，這個(gè)問題變得更加復(fù)雜。雖然如今買房和以前不一樣了，但許多人還是準(zhǔn)備冒險(xiǎn)一試。
位于美國紐約市的Compass Real Estate的房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人阿迪·克里格斯坦對《財(cái)富》雜志表示：“大多數(shù)首次購房者都是30多歲的人，他們希望在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)安定下來，寧愿把錢投入房地產(chǎn)，而不是投入市場和支付房租來對沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。從長遠(yuǎn)來看，與租房相比，擁有一套住房是一項(xiàng)更好的投資，當(dāng)他們能夠就價(jià)格進(jìn)行談判，并在房價(jià)和利率進(jìn)一步上漲之前將抵押貸款利率鎖定在7%至8%之間時(shí)，他們就愿意進(jìn)入市場?！?/p>
當(dāng)然，計(jì)算方法取決于很多因素，尤其是地理位置。根據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾CoreLogic凱斯-席勒全美房價(jià)NSA指數(shù)（S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index），美國房價(jià)中位數(shù)為31.15萬美元，但這一數(shù)字因?yàn)槭袌霾煌瑫泻艽蟛町悺?/p>
以洛杉磯為例，根據(jù)凱斯-席勒指數(shù)的數(shù)據(jù)，8月洛杉磯的房價(jià)中位數(shù)超過了41.7萬美元。假設(shè)現(xiàn)在的抵押貸款利率為7.4%，首付比例為20%，那么這位買家每月的月供將超過2,300美元。然而，根據(jù)RentCafe的數(shù)據(jù)，洛杉磯的平均租金為2,742美元，因此買房比租房便宜。
克里格斯坦指出，另一方面，紐約市入門級住宅的月供可能比租房要高得多。買家通常需要花費(fèi)更長時(shí)間才可以攢夠首付款。
她說：“每個(gè)房地產(chǎn)市場都是一個(gè)細(xì)分市場，因此，首付款所需金額和房價(jià)中位數(shù)的差異很大?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
2023年的首次購房者看起來與嬰兒潮一代購買首套房時(shí)的情況略有不同。由于房價(jià)上漲和中等水平庫存，與過去相比，新業(yè)主往往年齡更大、收入更高，而且更可能是單身或無子女。
這是根據(jù)美國全國房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會（National Association of Realtors）在11月13日發(fā)布的《2023年購房者和賣家概況報(bào)告》（2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers）得出的結(jié)論。自1981年以來，美國全國房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會每年都會發(fā)布該報(bào)告。今年，該報(bào)告基于近7,000名在2022年7月至2023年6月期間購買主要住宅的買家的反饋。
報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn)，今年首次購房者的典型年齡為35歲。在美國全國房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會長達(dá)四十年的數(shù)據(jù)中，該年齡段排第二位，僅次于去年的36歲，也高于許多嬰兒潮一代首次購房時(shí)的年齡。根據(jù)《伯克利經(jīng)濟(jì)評論》（Berkeley Economic Review）的數(shù)據(jù)，盡管抵押貸款利率在1981年年底達(dá)到了18%，但仍然有45%的嬰兒潮一代能夠在25歲到34歲之間購買第一套住房。
他們的收入也高于過去的首次購房者，收入中位數(shù)為95,900美元，高于去年的71,000美元，而且首付比例一般為總價(jià)的8%，是自1997年以來的最高水平（當(dāng)時(shí)的首付比例為9%），這反映出住房市場越來越難以負(fù)擔(dān)。
他們單身的可能性更大，有孩子的可能性要小得多，而且明顯更加多樣化。事實(shí)上，美國全國房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會的報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn)，只有52%的首次購房者已婚，而重復(fù)購房者的這一比例為63%，36%的首次購房者家中有未滿18歲的孩子，低于去年的44%。
他們的人數(shù)也比去年多。在2022年跌至26%的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低點(diǎn)之后，今年首次購房者卷土重來，占銷售額的32%。雖然這對處于觀望狀態(tài)的潛在首次購房者來說是一個(gè)充滿希望的趨勢，但這一比例依舊遠(yuǎn)低于1981年以來38%的平均水平，也是同期第四低的比例。
報(bào)告強(qiáng)調(diào)，千禧一代依然在為進(jìn)入住房市場而奮斗，無論成本有多高、需要花費(fèi)多長時(shí)間，無論這是否意味著削減奢侈品和娛樂支出，甚至從401(k)退休金計(jì)劃、股票和加密貨幣中提取資金。事實(shí)上，近四分之一的首次購房者依靠這些類型的資產(chǎn)來購買房子，另有23%的人使用禮物或從朋友或家人那里借來的貸款來支付首付款。
盡管抵押貸款利率徘徊在8%左右，房價(jià)連續(xù)七個(gè)月上漲，但有一點(diǎn)是顯而易見的：千禧一代已經(jīng)厭倦了等待更好的房市。事實(shí)上，根據(jù)美國全國房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會的報(bào)告，60%的首次購房者表示，購房的主要原因是希望擁有一套住房，而不是為了工作或離朋友或家人更近而搬家。
位于蒙特西托的蘇富比國際房地產(chǎn)（Sotheby’s International）的經(jīng)紀(jì)人莫林·麥克德穆特對《財(cái)富》雜志表示：“擁有一套住房的愿望從未真正消失。我認(rèn)為，這就是為什么盡管利率和房價(jià)上漲，許多人仍舊在進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)市場?！?/p>
首次購房者的年齡比過去幾代人都要大。他們厭倦了等待
首次購房者年齡偏大的趨勢在近期不太可能改變。由于住房市場狀況是幾十年來最難以承受的，年輕一代發(fā)現(xiàn)自己陷入了困境——無法支付中等價(jià)位房屋的首付款，也無法支付利率8%帶來的高額抵押貸款。這意味著可以進(jìn)入住房市場的20多歲的年輕人越來越少，從而推高了首次購房者的年齡。
麥克德穆特說：“許多年輕的千禧一代和Z世代正在通過與父母同住，甚至與朋友合租來積攢購房首付款。由于‘入門級’住房已經(jīng)基本被淘汰，對大多數(shù)人而言，這樣做幾乎是必不可少的?！?/p>
此外，千禧一代已經(jīng)厭倦了袖手旁觀。他們即將步入收入高峰期，希望開始組建家庭。
專為首次購房者服務(wù)的抵押貸款公司Homebuyer.com的創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官丹·格林告訴《財(cái)富》雜志，首次購房者的動機(jī)與重復(fù)購房者和“改善型”購房者不同。他說，他們是由五個(gè)“D”驅(qū)動的：鉆石、尿布、文憑、換辦公桌和狗。
格林說：“無論你是要結(jié)婚、生子、畢業(yè)、找新工作，還是想要一個(gè)院子養(yǎng)狗，在過去的兩年里，首次購房者把所有這些原因都擱置了。但你不能永遠(yuǎn)推遲生活計(jì)劃?！?/p>
租房與買房的心態(tài)對比
租房還是買房，這個(gè)由來已久的爭論在千禧一代身上并沒有消失——隨著租房價(jià)格與購房成本的同步上漲，這個(gè)問題變得更加復(fù)雜。雖然如今買房和以前不一樣了，但許多人還是準(zhǔn)備冒險(xiǎn)一試。
位于美國紐約市的Compass Real Estate的房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人阿迪·克里格斯坦對《財(cái)富》雜志表示：“大多數(shù)首次購房者都是30多歲的人，他們希望在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)安定下來，寧愿把錢投入房地產(chǎn)，而不是投入市場和支付房租來對沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。從長遠(yuǎn)來看，與租房相比，擁有一套住房是一項(xiàng)更好的投資，當(dāng)他們能夠就價(jià)格進(jìn)行談判，并在房價(jià)和利率進(jìn)一步上漲之前將抵押貸款利率鎖定在7%至8%之間時(shí)，他們就愿意進(jìn)入市場。”
當(dāng)然，計(jì)算方法取決于很多因素，尤其是地理位置。根據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾CoreLogic凱斯-席勒全美房價(jià)NSA指數(shù)（S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index），美國房價(jià)中位數(shù)為31.15萬美元，但這一數(shù)字因?yàn)槭袌霾煌瑫泻艽蟛町悺?/p>
以洛杉磯為例，根據(jù)凱斯-席勒指數(shù)的數(shù)據(jù)，8月洛杉磯的房價(jià)中位數(shù)超過了41.7萬美元。假設(shè)現(xiàn)在的抵押貸款利率為7.4%，首付比例為20%，那么這位買家每月的月供將超過2,300美元。然而，根據(jù)RentCafe的數(shù)據(jù)，洛杉磯的平均租金為2,742美元，因此買房比租房便宜。
克里格斯坦指出，另一方面，紐約市入門級住宅的月供可能比租房要高得多。買家通常需要花費(fèi)更長時(shí)間才可以攢夠首付款。
她說：“每個(gè)房地產(chǎn)市場都是一個(gè)細(xì)分市場，因此，首付款所需金額和房價(jià)中位數(shù)的差異很大?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
The first-time homebuyer in 2023 looks a little different than they did when baby boomers were buying their starter homes. Thanks to higher home prices and middling inventory, new owners tend to be older, earn more, and are likelier to be single or childless than in the past.
That’s according to the 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on November 13. NAR has put the report out annually since 1981; this year, it is based on responses from nearly 7,000 buyers who purchased a primary residence between July 2022 and June 2023.
It finds that the typical first-time buyer was 35 years old this year. That’s the second-oldest age in four decades of NAR’s data—second only to last year’s 36—and higher than when many baby boomers bought their first homes. Despite mortgage rates hitting 18% by late 1981, some 45% of boomers were able to buy their first home between the ages of 25 and 34, according to the Berkeley Economic Review.
Reflecting the increasing unaffordability of the housing market, they also earn more than first-time buyers of the past, reporting a median income of $95,900—up from $71,000 last year—and their typical down payment was 8%, the highest since 1997, when it was 9%.
They are also more likely to be single, much less likely to have children, and significantly more diverse. In fact, NAR’s report finds just 52% of first-time buyers were married, compared to 63% of repeat buyers, and 36% have a child under the age of 18 living at home, down from 44% last year.
There are also more of them than there were last year. After falling to a record-low 26% of buyers in 2022, first-timers made a comeback this year, comprising 32% of sales. While a promising trend for the potential first-time buyers sitting on the sideline, that’s still well below the 38% average seen since 1981, and the fourth lowest share in that timeframe.
The report highlights how millennials are still fighting to break into the housing market—no matter how much it costs or how long it takes, the report shows, whether that means cutting spending on luxury goods and entertainment or even pulling money from a 401(k), stocks, and cryptocurrency. In fact, nearly a quarter of first-time homebuyers relied on these types of assets to buy a house, and another 23% used a gift or loan from friends or family for the down payment.
Even though mortgage rates are hovering around 8% and home prices have been on a seven-month streak of increases, one thing is evident: millennials are just plain tired of waiting for a better housing market to buy. In fact, 60% of first-time homebuyers said the primary reason for purchasing a home was the desire to own a home of their own, per NAR’s report, as opposed to moving for work or to be closer to friends or family.
“The desire to own a home has never really gone away,” Maureen McDermut, a realtor with Sotheby’s International-Montecito, tells Fortune. “I believe this is why, despite higher interest rates and home prices, many are still entering the market.”
First-time homebuyers are older than past generations. And they’re tired of waiting
The trend of older first-time buyers isn’t likely to change in the immediate future. Because housing market conditions are the least affordable they’ve been in decades, younger generations find themselves stuck—unable to afford a down payment on a median-priced home or the hearty mortgage payments that come with 8% rates. That means fewer 20-somethings are able to break into the housing market, driving up the age of first-time homebuyers.
“Many younger millennials and Gen Zers are saving up by staying home with their parents or even renting with friends to put together a down payment on a home,” says McDermut. “As ‘starter’ homes have largely gone by the wayside, it is almost essential to do this for most.”
Plus millennials are tired of standing on the sidelines. They’re coming into their peak earning years, and want to start family planning.
First-time homebuyers have different motivations than repeat and “move-up” buyers, Dan Green, founder and CEO of Homebuyer.com, a mortgage company dedicated to first-time homebuyers, tells Fortune. They’re driven by the 5 “D’s”: diamonds, diapers, diplomas, desk change, and dogs, he says.
“Whether you’re getting married or having a baby, graduating from school, moving for a new job, or wanting a yard for a dog—first-time buyers have put all these reasons on hold for the last two years,” Green says. “You can’t put your life off forever.”
Rent versus buy mentality
The age-old debate of whether to rent or buy is not lost on millennials—and it’s gotten even more complicated as rental prices have increased in tandem with the cost of buying. While buying doesn’t look to be the same “deal” it was before, many are ready to take the plunge anyway.
“Most first-time homebuyers are those in their 30s looking to stay put for a while and would rather hedge their bets by putting money into real estate versus the market and paying rent,” Adie Kriegstein, a realtor with Compass Real Estate in New York City, tells Fortune. “Owning a home is a better investment than renting in the long run, and they are willing to jump into the market when they can negotiate on the price and lock in a rate between 7 [to] 8% before they rise more.”
Of course, the calculation depends on a number of factors, particularly location. The median-priced home in the U.S. is $311,500, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, but that figure can vary greatly from market to market.
Take Los Angeles, for example, which had a median home price of more than $417,000 in August, according to Case-Shiller. Assuming today’s 7.4% mortgage rate and a 20% down payment, that buyer would have a monthly mortgage payment of more than $2,300. However, the average rent in Los Angeles is $2,742, according to RentCafe, making buying a house cheaper than renting.
On the flipside, the entry-level home in New York City can be much higher than a rental payment, Kriegstein says. It often takes buyers there longer to save up for the down payment.
“Every housing market is a niche,” she says. “As such, the amount needed for a down payment and the median price for a home varies widely.”
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