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美聯(lián)儲最常用的通脹指標(biāo)下降,華爾街認(rèn)為降息將至

WILL DANIEL
2023-12-11

雖然華爾街希望美聯(lián)儲會結(jié)束加息甚至開始降息,但美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾并未發(fā)表任何鴿派言論。

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美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾。圖片來源:PHOTO BY CELAL GUNES/ANADOLU VIA GETTY IMAGES

10月,美聯(lián)儲最常用的通脹指標(biāo)下降。華爾街認(rèn)為,這是另外一個信號,表明美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾可能愿意盡早結(jié)束長達(dá)20多個月的加息。

這對于消費者和企業(yè)而言是好消息。過去幾年,借款成本上漲和通貨膨脹令消費者和企業(yè)不堪重負(fù)。尤其是快速增長的公司經(jīng)常要通過舉債進(jìn)行投資,以拓展業(yè)務(wù),結(jié)束加息將解決2024年影響企業(yè)收益的重要負(fù)面因素。降息的前景甚至?xí)欣谶@些公司的股票。隨著借款成本的下降,許多公司的收益會增加,而國債和企業(yè)債券等股票的替代品,給投資者帶來的回報會減少。這意味著更多資金將流入股票市場。

上周四發(fā)布的最新通脹數(shù)據(jù)表明,通貨膨脹好轉(zhuǎn)的跡象更明顯。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)的報告稱,10月,個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數(shù)上漲不到0.1%,同比僅上漲了3%。9月,該指數(shù)同比上漲了3.4%。此外,10月,剔除容易波動的食品和能源價格的核心PCE通脹,同比僅上漲了3.5%,低于前一個月的3.7%。

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的副首席美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德魯·亨特在一份報告中,提到這些數(shù)據(jù)稱:“10月,核心PCE通脹繼續(xù)下降,將強化市場對即將來到的降息的預(yù)期?!?/p>

新冠疫情所引發(fā)的通貨膨脹持續(xù)數(shù)年之后,今年到目前為止,商品價格下跌了超過5%,公司已經(jīng)開始降低實物商品的價格。PCE物價指數(shù)顯示,10月延續(xù)了這種趨勢,商品價格下降了0.3%。但在美國的節(jié)日季,由于國內(nèi)出行創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄,導(dǎo)致服務(wù)價格上漲0.2%,因此抵消了商品價格的下跌。服務(wù)通脹甚至也表現(xiàn)出放緩的跡象。服務(wù)通脹包括學(xué)費、居住支持、交通、醫(yī)療服務(wù)成本等。

10月的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,與9月相比,消費者在餐廳、酒吧和酒店的消費有所減少。9月的服務(wù)價格上漲了0.3%。上個月,服務(wù)通脹的同比上漲幅度,從2023年約5.8%的最高點下降到只有4.4%。這可能意味著美聯(lián)儲將停止加息。

哈里斯金融集團(tuán)(Harris Financial Group)主理合伙人賈米·考克斯表示:“如果你希望杰伊·鮑威爾未來幾個月繼續(xù)保持鷹派立場,PCE服務(wù)指數(shù)可能會令你失望。”他認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲繼續(xù)加息的概率較低。“通貨膨脹大幅減速。這些數(shù)據(jù)顯然標(biāo)志著當(dāng)前的利率周期結(jié)束?!?/p>

在疫情期間,封鎖和供應(yīng)鏈混亂導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的商品通脹,但過去幾年,由于美國人恢復(fù)出行和外出用餐,服務(wù)通脹出現(xiàn)了反彈。為了應(yīng)對消費者支出的這種變化,美聯(lián)儲官員強調(diào)要控制服務(wù)價格上漲。最近的通脹數(shù)據(jù)讓許多華爾街人士對美聯(lián)儲實現(xiàn)這個目標(biāo)抱有希望。

LPL Financial首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家杰弗里·羅奇表示:“通脹降溫速度超出預(yù)期,可能給市場帶來驚喜。投資者應(yīng)該預(yù)期,會有更多美聯(lián)儲官員改變措辭,讓市場為政策立場微調(diào)做好準(zhǔn)備?!?/p>

雖然華爾街希望美聯(lián)儲會結(jié)束加息甚至開始降息,但美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾并未發(fā)表任何鴿派言論。在11月初國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的一次活動上,鮑威爾對記者表示,他依舊會“致力于”實現(xiàn)美聯(lián)儲2%的通脹目標(biāo),保證利率達(dá)到“足夠限制性”的水平。

他說道:“我們不確信已經(jīng)實現(xiàn)了這個目標(biāo)?!?/p>

但有些美聯(lián)儲官員似乎認(rèn)為,繼續(xù)加息沒有必要。亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲(Atlanta Fed)主席拉斐爾·波斯迪克在本月早些時候表示,他認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在利率“已經(jīng)具備了足夠的限制性,能夠讓通脹達(dá)到2%的目標(biāo)水平”。

上周二,在美國企業(yè)研究所(American Enterprise Institute)舉辦的一次活動上,美聯(lián)儲理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示,他“越來越確信,目前的政策能夠有效放慢經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度,使通脹率下降到2%”。沃勒被普遍認(rèn)為是更加鷹牌的美聯(lián)儲官員。他認(rèn)為,如果通脹繼續(xù)下降,美聯(lián)儲“就可以開始降低政策利率”。

當(dāng)然,并非所有美聯(lián)儲官員都認(rèn)為通脹已經(jīng)得到控制。上周四,在紐約聯(lián)儲(New York Fed)與聯(lián)邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank)的聯(lián)合會議上,紐約聯(lián)儲主席約翰·威廉姆斯表示,雖然在減緩消費物價上漲和經(jīng)濟(jì)“恢復(fù)平衡”方面取得了“有意義的進(jìn)展”:“我們的工作遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束。”

他補充道:“我致力于實現(xiàn)2%的長期通脹目標(biāo),從而為我們未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)奠定強大的基礎(chǔ)?!?/p>

華爾街也有人對最近的反通脹趨勢表示質(zhì)疑。瑞銀全球資產(chǎn)管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)高級美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家布萊恩·羅斯表示,美聯(lián)儲需要保持其對于更高利率的“偏見”,才能保證通脹能真正得到控制。羅斯表示:“美聯(lián)儲主席將在周五公開露面,我們預(yù)計他會小心翼翼,避免說出過于鴿派的觀點?!?/p>

但羅斯表示,如果通脹和勞動力市場本月繼續(xù)降溫,美聯(lián)儲可能會在1月底之前“采取中立立場”或停止加息。(財富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

10月,美聯(lián)儲最常用的通脹指標(biāo)下降。華爾街認(rèn)為,這是另外一個信號,表明美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾可能愿意盡早結(jié)束長達(dá)20多個月的加息。

這對于消費者和企業(yè)而言是好消息。過去幾年,借款成本上漲和通貨膨脹令消費者和企業(yè)不堪重負(fù)。尤其是快速增長的公司經(jīng)常要通過舉債進(jìn)行投資,以拓展業(yè)務(wù),結(jié)束加息將解決2024年影響企業(yè)收益的重要負(fù)面因素。降息的前景甚至?xí)欣谶@些公司的股票。隨著借款成本的下降,許多公司的收益會增加,而國債和企業(yè)債券等股票的替代品,給投資者帶來的回報會減少。這意味著更多資金將流入股票市場。

上周四發(fā)布的最新通脹數(shù)據(jù)表明,通貨膨脹好轉(zhuǎn)的跡象更明顯。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)的報告稱,10月,個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數(shù)上漲不到0.1%,同比僅上漲了3%。9月,該指數(shù)同比上漲了3.4%。此外,10月,剔除容易波動的食品和能源價格的核心PCE通脹,同比僅上漲了3.5%,低于前一個月的3.7%。

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的副首席美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德魯·亨特在一份報告中,提到這些數(shù)據(jù)稱:“10月,核心PCE通脹繼續(xù)下降,將強化市場對即將來到的降息的預(yù)期?!?/p>

新冠疫情所引發(fā)的通貨膨脹持續(xù)數(shù)年之后,今年到目前為止,商品價格下跌了超過5%,公司已經(jīng)開始降低實物商品的價格。PCE物價指數(shù)顯示,10月延續(xù)了這種趨勢,商品價格下降了0.3%。但在美國的節(jié)日季,由于國內(nèi)出行創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄,導(dǎo)致服務(wù)價格上漲0.2%,因此抵消了商品價格的下跌。服務(wù)通脹甚至也表現(xiàn)出放緩的跡象。服務(wù)通脹包括學(xué)費、居住支持、交通、醫(yī)療服務(wù)成本等。

10月的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,與9月相比,消費者在餐廳、酒吧和酒店的消費有所減少。9月的服務(wù)價格上漲了0.3%。上個月,服務(wù)通脹的同比上漲幅度,從2023年約5.8%的最高點下降到只有4.4%。這可能意味著美聯(lián)儲將停止加息。

哈里斯金融集團(tuán)(Harris Financial Group)主理合伙人賈米·考克斯表示:“如果你希望杰伊·鮑威爾未來幾個月繼續(xù)保持鷹派立場,PCE服務(wù)指數(shù)可能會令你失望?!彼J(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲繼續(xù)加息的概率較低?!巴ㄘ浥蛎洿蠓鶞p速。這些數(shù)據(jù)顯然標(biāo)志著當(dāng)前的利率周期結(jié)束?!?/p>

在疫情期間,封鎖和供應(yīng)鏈混亂導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的商品通脹,但過去幾年,由于美國人恢復(fù)出行和外出用餐,服務(wù)通脹出現(xiàn)了反彈。為了應(yīng)對消費者支出的這種變化,美聯(lián)儲官員強調(diào)要控制服務(wù)價格上漲。最近的通脹數(shù)據(jù)讓許多華爾街人士對美聯(lián)儲實現(xiàn)這個目標(biāo)抱有希望。

LPL Financial首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家杰弗里·羅奇表示:“通脹降溫速度超出預(yù)期,可能給市場帶來驚喜。投資者應(yīng)該預(yù)期,會有更多美聯(lián)儲官員改變措辭,讓市場為政策立場微調(diào)做好準(zhǔn)備?!?/p>

雖然華爾街希望美聯(lián)儲會結(jié)束加息甚至開始降息,但美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾并未發(fā)表任何鴿派言論。在11月初國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的一次活動上,鮑威爾對記者表示,他依舊會“致力于”實現(xiàn)美聯(lián)儲2%的通脹目標(biāo),保證利率達(dá)到“足夠限制性”的水平。

他說道:“我們不確信已經(jīng)實現(xiàn)了這個目標(biāo)?!?/p>

但有些美聯(lián)儲官員似乎認(rèn)為,繼續(xù)加息沒有必要。亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲(Atlanta Fed)主席拉斐爾·波斯迪克在本月早些時候表示,他認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在利率“已經(jīng)具備了足夠的限制性,能夠讓通脹達(dá)到2%的目標(biāo)水平”。

上周二,在美國企業(yè)研究所(American Enterprise Institute)舉辦的一次活動上,美聯(lián)儲理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示,他“越來越確信,目前的政策能夠有效放慢經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度,使通脹率下降到2%”。沃勒被普遍認(rèn)為是更加鷹牌的美聯(lián)儲官員。他認(rèn)為,如果通脹繼續(xù)下降,美聯(lián)儲“就可以開始降低政策利率”。

當(dāng)然,并非所有美聯(lián)儲官員都認(rèn)為通脹已經(jīng)得到控制。上周四,在紐約聯(lián)儲(New York Fed)與聯(lián)邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank)的聯(lián)合會議上,紐約聯(lián)儲主席約翰·威廉姆斯表示,雖然在減緩消費物價上漲和經(jīng)濟(jì)“恢復(fù)平衡”方面取得了“有意義的進(jìn)展”:“我們的工作遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束?!?/p>

他補充道:“我致力于實現(xiàn)2%的長期通脹目標(biāo),從而為我們未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)奠定強大的基礎(chǔ)?!?/p>

華爾街也有人對最近的反通脹趨勢表示質(zhì)疑。瑞銀全球資產(chǎn)管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)高級美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家布萊恩·羅斯表示,美聯(lián)儲需要保持其對于更高利率的“偏見”,才能保證通脹能真正得到控制。羅斯表示:“美聯(lián)儲主席將在周五公開露面,我們預(yù)計他會小心翼翼,避免說出過于鴿派的觀點?!?/p>

但羅斯表示,如果通脹和勞動力市場本月繼續(xù)降溫,美聯(lián)儲可能會在1月底之前“采取中立立場”或停止加息。(財富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge cooled in October. For Wall Street, it’s yet another sign that the central bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, may be willing to end his more than 20-month-long interest rate hiking campaign sooner rather than later.

That’s great news for consumers and businesses, which have struggled to cope with rising borrowing costs and inflation over the past few years. Fast-growing companies, in particular, often rely on debt to invest in their expanding businesses, and the end of interest rate hikes would remove a significant earnings headwind for them going into 2024. The prospect of interest rate cuts would be even better for their shares. Not only would many companies get a boost to earnings due to lower borrowing rates, but investors’ alternatives to stocks—mainly Treasuries and corporate bonds—would provide a lower return. That would mean more money flowing into the stock market.

The signs of a turnaround in inflation were clear in the latest inflation data released Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by less than 0.1% in October, and just 3% from a year ago, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. That’s compared with a 3.4% year-over-year jump in September. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, rose just 3.5% from a year ago in October, down from 3.7% the previous month.

“The further decline in core PCE inflation in October will reinforce the growing belief in markets that interest rate cuts are on the horizon,” Capital Economics’ deputy chief U.S. economist, Andrew Hunter, said of the data in a Thursday note.

With commodity prices falling more than 5% so far this year, businesses have begun to reduce prices of physical goods after years of pandemic-induced inflation. In October, that trend continued with goods prices dropping 0.3% during the month, according to the PCE price index. That drop was offset by an 0.2% rise in services prices amid record domestic travel for the holiday season. But even services inflation—a category that includes a mix of components like tuition prices and shelter, transportation, and medical service costs—is showing signs of slowing.

October’s data showed reduced spending on restaurants, bars, and hotels compared with September, when services prices rose 0.3%. And year-over-year services inflation has fallen from its 2023 peak of roughly 5.8% to just 4.4% last month. That could signal the end of the Fed’s interest rate hikes.

“If you are hoping Jay Powell continues to be hawkish in the coming months, the PCE services index is not your friend,” Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said Thursday, downplaying the likelihood of more interest rate hikes. “There is significant deceleration in inflation afoot. These data solidly mark the end of the rate cycle.”

Throughout the pandemic, lockdowns and supply-chain chaos led to mass goods inflation, but over the past few years, services inflation has rebounded due to Americans getting back to traveling and eating out. In response to this shift in consumer spending, Fed officials have emphasized combating services price increases. And the latest inflation data has given many on Wall Street hope that the central bank is making progress toward this goal.

“Markets could end up pleasantly surprised as inflation could cool faster than expected,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said Thursday. “Investors should expect additional Fed officials to tweak their language as they prepare markets for a subtle shift in policy stance.”

Despite Wall Street’s hopes that the Fed will either end its interest rate hikes or even cut rates, Chair Powell has yet to make more dovish remarks. At an early November International Monetary Fund event, he told reporters that he remains “committed” to achieving the central bank’s 2% inflation target by ensuring interest rates are “sufficiently restrictive.”

“We are not confident that we have achieved such a stance,” he added.

Some Fed officials seem to be coming around to the idea that further interest rate hikes are no longer necessary, however. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said earlier this month that he believes interest rates are now “sufficiently restrictive to get us to the 2% level for inflation.”

And Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday at an American Enterprise Institute event that he is “increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%.” Waller, who is generally regarded as a more hawkish Fed official, went on to argue that if inflation continues to fade, the Fed “could then start lowering the policy rate.”

Of course, not every Fed official is convinced that inflation has been tamed. New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday at a New York Fed, Federal Reserve Bank joint conference that although “meaningful progress” has been made in slowing consumer price increases and “restoring balance” to the economy: “Our work is not nearly done.”

“I am committed to achieving our 2% longer-run inflation goal, creating a strong foundation for our economic future,” he added.

There are also still skeptics of the recent disinflationary trend on Wall Street. Brian Rose, senior U.S. economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, said Thursday that the Fed will need to keep its “bias” toward higher interest rates to ensure inflation is truly under control. “Fed Chair Jerome Powell will make a public appearance on Friday, and we expect him to be careful to avoid sounding too dovish,” Rose argued.

However, even Rose noted that if inflation and the labor market continue to cool this month, the Fed could “move to a neutral stance”—or end its rate hikes—by the end of January.

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