美國(guó)11月通脹率再次下降,更便宜的燃油幫助進(jìn)一步減輕了美國(guó)物價(jià)上漲的負(fù)擔(dān)。
與此同時(shí),有關(guān)物價(jià)上漲的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,一些行業(yè)的物價(jià),例如餐廳、二手車(chē)和汽車(chē)保險(xiǎn)這些服務(wù)行業(yè),依然在以令人不安的速度快速上漲。
美國(guó)勞工部(Labor Department)周二的報(bào)告稱,11月的消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)環(huán)比小幅上漲0.1%,與一年前的11月相比增長(zhǎng)了3.1%,較10月3.2%的同比漲幅有所下降。
11月,不計(jì)波動(dòng)性食品和能源成本,核心物價(jià)指數(shù)環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)0.3%,略高于10月0.2%的環(huán)比增幅。與一年前相比,11月核心物價(jià)指數(shù)增長(zhǎng)了4%,與10月持平。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)認(rèn)為核心物價(jià)指數(shù)更有助于其判斷未來(lái)的通脹走向。
有鑒于喜憂參半的通脹報(bào)告,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在周三的會(huì)議之后繼續(xù)維持現(xiàn)有的基準(zhǔn)利率不變。當(dāng)前,通脹率依然高于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的年度目標(biāo),這也是為什么美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一心要保持利率高位運(yùn)行的原因。然而,由于通脹的回落步伐快于預(yù)期,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)決策者可能會(huì)覺(jué)得無(wú)需進(jìn)一步加息,至少現(xiàn)在是如此。
外界廣泛認(rèn)為,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)連續(xù)第三次保持其基準(zhǔn)利率不變,這意味著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能不愿看到借貸成本的繼續(xù)上漲。該機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)將其基準(zhǔn)利率上調(diào)至22年以來(lái)的新高,達(dá)到了約5.4%,彰顯了其馴服通脹的決心。加息舉措推高了房貸、車(chē)貸、企業(yè)融資和其他信貸成本,亦反映了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的目標(biāo)——盡可能地給借貸和消費(fèi)降溫,從而遏制通脹。
燃油價(jià)格的穩(wěn)步回落也幫助阻擊了通脹。美國(guó)汽車(chē)協(xié)會(huì)稱,全美燃油平均價(jià)格從一年半之前約5美元/加侖的峰值降至周一的3.15美元/加侖。相比之下,百貨店的高物價(jià)則尤為頑固,給眾多家庭帶來(lái)了沉重的經(jīng)濟(jì)負(fù)擔(dān)。
令美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾和其他美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員十分欣慰的是,通脹自2022年6月達(dá)到9.1%之后一直在穩(wěn)步回落。然而,他們也警告說(shuō),物價(jià)上漲的步伐對(duì)于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)來(lái)說(shuō)依然過(guò)快,還不能放松警惕。
受此影響,即便美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不再加息,它可能也會(huì)保持這一峰值基準(zhǔn)利率不變,至少還會(huì)持續(xù)數(shù)個(gè)月的時(shí)間。鮑威爾甚至警告說(shuō),為了打贏這場(chǎng)高通脹阻擊戰(zhàn),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)決定再次加息。自2022年3月以來(lái),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)上調(diào)這一重要的短期利率多達(dá)11次。
作為一個(gè)鮮為人知但受到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)偏愛(ài)的通脹衡量指標(biāo),核心物價(jià)指數(shù)在10月同比上漲了3.5%,低于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)今年第四季度3.7%的預(yù)測(cè)。
通脹的穩(wěn)步回落引發(fā)了有關(guān)明年降息的猜測(cè),一些經(jīng)濟(jì)師認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)最快明年3月份就會(huì)采取行動(dòng)。在過(guò)去六個(gè)月中,這個(gè)受到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)偏愛(ài)的通脹衡量指標(biāo)的年增幅僅為2.5%。
然而,鮑威爾已經(jīng)否定了有關(guān)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)在近期降息的看法,估計(jì)他在周三的會(huì)議上會(huì)再次表明這一立場(chǎng)。
鮑威爾本月早些時(shí)候曾說(shuō)過(guò):“現(xiàn)在就推測(cè)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能降息為時(shí)尚早。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
美國(guó)11月通脹率再次下降,更便宜的燃油幫助進(jìn)一步減輕了美國(guó)物價(jià)上漲的負(fù)擔(dān)。
與此同時(shí),有關(guān)物價(jià)上漲的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,一些行業(yè)的物價(jià),例如餐廳、二手車(chē)和汽車(chē)保險(xiǎn)這些服務(wù)行業(yè),依然在以令人不安的速度快速上漲。
美國(guó)勞工部(Labor Department)周二的報(bào)告稱,11月的消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)環(huán)比小幅上漲0.1%,與一年前的11月相比增長(zhǎng)了3.1%,較10月3.2%的同比漲幅有所下降。
11月,不計(jì)波動(dòng)性食品和能源成本,核心物價(jià)指數(shù)環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)0.3%,略高于10月0.2%的環(huán)比增幅。與一年前相比,11月核心物價(jià)指數(shù)增長(zhǎng)了4%,與10月持平。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)認(rèn)為核心物價(jià)指數(shù)更有助于其判斷未來(lái)的通脹走向。
有鑒于喜憂參半的通脹報(bào)告,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在周三的會(huì)議之后繼續(xù)維持現(xiàn)有的基準(zhǔn)利率不變。當(dāng)前,通脹率依然高于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的年度目標(biāo),這也是為什么美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一心要保持利率高位運(yùn)行的原因。然而,由于通脹的回落步伐快于預(yù)期,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)決策者可能會(huì)覺(jué)得無(wú)需進(jìn)一步加息,至少現(xiàn)在是如此。
外界廣泛認(rèn)為,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)連續(xù)第三次保持其基準(zhǔn)利率不變,這意味著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能不愿看到借貸成本的繼續(xù)上漲。該機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)將其基準(zhǔn)利率上調(diào)至22年以來(lái)的新高,達(dá)到了約5.4%,彰顯了其馴服通脹的決心。加息舉措推高了房貸、車(chē)貸、企業(yè)融資和其他信貸成本,亦反映了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的目標(biāo)——盡可能地給借貸和消費(fèi)降溫,從而遏制通脹。
燃油價(jià)格的穩(wěn)步回落也幫助阻擊了通脹。美國(guó)汽車(chē)協(xié)會(huì)稱,全美燃油平均價(jià)格從一年半之前約5美元/加侖的峰值降至周一的3.15美元/加侖。相比之下,百貨店的高物價(jià)則尤為頑固,給眾多家庭帶來(lái)了沉重的經(jīng)濟(jì)負(fù)擔(dān)。
令美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾和其他美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員十分欣慰的是,通脹自2022年6月達(dá)到9.1%之后一直在穩(wěn)步回落。然而,他們也警告說(shuō),物價(jià)上漲的步伐對(duì)于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)來(lái)說(shuō)依然過(guò)快,還不能放松警惕。
受此影響,即便美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不再加息,它可能也會(huì)保持這一峰值基準(zhǔn)利率不變,至少還會(huì)持續(xù)數(shù)個(gè)月的時(shí)間。鮑威爾甚至警告說(shuō),為了打贏這場(chǎng)高通脹阻擊戰(zhàn),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)決定再次加息。自2022年3月以來(lái),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)上調(diào)這一重要的短期利率多達(dá)11次。
作為一個(gè)鮮為人知但受到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)偏愛(ài)的通脹衡量指標(biāo),核心物價(jià)指數(shù)在10月同比上漲了3.5%,低于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)今年第四季度3.7%的預(yù)測(cè)。
通脹的穩(wěn)步回落引發(fā)了有關(guān)明年降息的猜測(cè),一些經(jīng)濟(jì)師認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)最快明年3月份就會(huì)采取行動(dòng)。在過(guò)去六個(gè)月中,這個(gè)受到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)偏愛(ài)的通脹衡量指標(biāo)的年增幅僅為2.5%。
然而,鮑威爾已經(jīng)否定了有關(guān)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)在近期降息的看法,估計(jì)他在周三的會(huì)議上會(huì)再次表明這一立場(chǎng)。
鮑威爾本月早些時(shí)候曾說(shuō)過(guò):“現(xiàn)在就推測(cè)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能降息為時(shí)尚早?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
S. inflation ticked down again last month, with cheaper gas helping further lighten the weight of consumer price increases in the United States.
At the same time, the latest data on consumer inflation showed that prices in some areas — services such as restaurants, used cars and auto insurance — continued to rise uncomfortably fast.
Tuesday’s report from the Labor Department said the consumer price index rose just 0.1% from October to November. Compared with a year earlier, prices were up 3.1% in November, down from a 3.2% year-over-year rise in October.
Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% from October to November, slightly faster than the 0.2% increase the previous month. Measured from a year ago, core prices rose 4%, the same as in October. The Federal Reserve considers core prices to be a better guide to the future path of inflation.
The mixed picture in Tuesday’s inflation report will likely keep the Fed on track to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged when its latest meeting ends Wednesday. Inflation still exceeds the Fed’s 2% annual target, which is why its officials are set to leave rates high. But with inflation cooling faster than expected, the Fed’s policymakers likely see no cause to further raise rates, at least for now.
The Fed’s widely expected decision to keep its key rate unchanged for a third straight time suggests that it’s probably done raising borrowing costs. The central bank has raised its key rate to about 5.4%, the highest level in 22 years, in a determined drive to conquer inflation. Its rate hikes have made mortgages, auto loans, business borrowing and other forms of credit much costlier, reflecting the Fed’s goal of slowing borrowing and spending enough to tame inflation.
Helping keep a lid on inflation has been a steady decline in gas prices. From a peak of $5 about a year and a half ago, the national average has dropped to $3.15 a gallon as of Monday, according to AAA. Grocery store inflation, by contrast, has proved especially persistent and a drain on many households’ finances.
Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have welcomed inflation’s steady fall from 9.1% in June 2022. But they have cautioned that the pace of price increases is still too high for the Fed to let down its guard.
As a result, even if the central bank is done raising rates, it’s expected to keep its benchmark rate at a peak for at least several more months. Powell has even warned that the Fed might decide to raise rates again if it deems it necessary to defeat high inflation. The Fed raised its key short-term rate 11 times starting in March 2022.
According to a lesser-known inflation gauge that the Fed prefers, core prices rose 3.5% in October compared with 12 months earlier. That was less than the central bank’s forecast of 3.7% for the final three months of this year.
Inflation’s steady decline has sparked speculation about interest rate cuts next year, with some economists floating the potential for cuts as early as March. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge has increased at an annual pace of just 2.5% in the past six months.
But Powell has so far brushed aside the idea that the Fed might cut rates anytime soon. He is expected to say so again Wednesday.
“It would be premature,” Powell said earlier this month, “to speculate” on the possibility of Fed rate cuts.