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Netflix創(chuàng)意枯竭,卻仍然能夠“贏得流媒體大戰(zhàn)”

Paolo Confino
2024-01-12

在Netflix平臺(tái)上,越來(lái)越多的作品系其從競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手處購(gòu)買而來(lái)。

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上周早些時(shí)候,一位頗具影響力的媒體分析師公開(kāi)宣稱,Netflix正式獲得了流媒體大戰(zhàn)的勝利。馬修·貝羅尼是一名娛樂(lè)記者,也是新聞創(chuàng)業(yè)公司Puck的創(chuàng)始人,他在X上發(fā)布的一張Netflix主頁(yè)圖片頗能反映流媒體行業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀。貝羅尼寫(xiě)道:“目前,Netflix上排名前十位的電影全部為傳統(tǒng)電影公司的作品,屬于授權(quán)播放,其中九部[包括華納兄弟公司(Warner Bros.)最近推出的四部熱門(mén)影片]來(lái)自擁有自己流媒體服務(wù)的電影公司。流媒體大戰(zhàn)已經(jīng)正式宣告結(jié)束?!?/p>

從競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手愿意把自己最優(yōu)秀的內(nèi)容提供給Netflix可以看出,他們已經(jīng)不再把比這家業(yè)內(nèi)最大的流媒體公司燒更多錢、玩出更多花樣當(dāng)作自己努力的目標(biāo)。相反,他們現(xiàn)在是把Netflix看作一個(gè)既擁有廣闊受眾又愿意購(gòu)買版權(quán)內(nèi)容的發(fā)行平臺(tái)。

在這種變化出現(xiàn)的同時(shí),是部分用戶開(kāi)始對(duì)流媒體服務(wù)越發(fā)不滿:會(huì)員費(fèi)越來(lái)越高,可供觀賞的新片卻越來(lái)越少。這里有一個(gè)明顯的悖論,那就是Netflix雖然未能贏得用戶歡心,卻能夠橫掃一眾競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,而之所以出現(xiàn)這種自相矛盾的情況,可以歸咎于所謂的“平臺(tái)衰落”理論,該理論描述了各種網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺(tái)緩慢衰落的過(guò)程。

“平臺(tái)的興亡往往有個(gè)過(guò)程”,該詞語(yǔ)的創(chuàng)造者、作家科里·多克托羅在一篇最初發(fā)表在他的網(wǎng)站上、后被《連線》(Wired)轉(zhuǎn)載的文章中寫(xiě)道,“一開(kāi)始,平臺(tái)對(duì)自己的用戶都很好,然后就開(kāi)始不把用戶當(dāng)回事了,滿心只想著更好地服務(wù)好企業(yè)客戶,最后,他們會(huì)連企業(yè)用戶也不再放在眼里,只是竭盡所能為自己攫取所有價(jià)值。就這樣一步步走向滅亡。”

平臺(tái)衰落

對(duì)于多克托羅創(chuàng)造的“平臺(tái)衰落”一詞,還有一種不太好聽(tīng)的說(shuō)法:“垃圾化”。他認(rèn)為,這種特點(diǎn)已經(jīng)融入頂級(jí)科技公司的商業(yè)模式之中。

多克托羅寫(xiě)道:“由于平臺(tái)分配價(jià)值的方式非常容易改變,其又具有‘雙面市場(chǎng)’的特質(zhì),能夠居于買賣雙方之間,利用二者互為挾制,從二者之間傳遞的價(jià)值中攫取越來(lái)越大的份額,這種結(jié)果似乎在所難免。”

Netflix似乎已經(jīng)獲得了流媒體大戰(zhàn)(近來(lái)最激烈的商業(yè)大戰(zhàn)之一)的勝利,這并不令人意外。畢竟是其開(kāi)創(chuàng)了這種“直接面向消費(fèi)者、無(wú)需開(kāi)通有線電視服務(wù)”的流媒體業(yè)態(tài)。Netflix還擁有大量的國(guó)際觀眾,這一點(diǎn)令它那些在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)遲遲不能打開(kāi)局面的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手羨慕不已。但與直覺(jué)相反的是,Netflix正在因?yàn)楣?jié)目質(zhì)量不佳、用戶滿意度下降而飽受批評(píng)。

著名好萊塢歷史學(xué)家彼得·比斯金德對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,他認(rèn)為Netflix的內(nèi)容“不值一看”。五年前,博主馬特·斯托勒曾經(jīng)撰文指出,如果Netflix在流媒體大戰(zhàn)中獲勝,那么那些質(zhì)量平庸的作品就將在其平臺(tái)上占據(jù)更大的份額,觀眾的選擇會(huì)越來(lái)越少,整個(gè)娛樂(lè)業(yè)都將因此受到傷害。斯托勒最近告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,Netflix將利用其“最強(qiáng)流媒體平臺(tái)”的地位來(lái)壓低電影制作人的費(fèi)用,“在與創(chuàng)作者殺價(jià)時(shí)下手會(huì)更狠”。一旦出現(xiàn)這種情況,那么Netflix將很難再制作出那些豐富多彩的內(nèi)容,導(dǎo)致觀眾的觀影選擇越來(lái)越少。五年后的今天,他說(shuō):“現(xiàn)在的情況似乎正好應(yīng)驗(yàn)了我之前的預(yù)測(cè)。”

2019年,也就是斯托勒最初博文發(fā)表的那一年,《The Information》上的一篇報(bào)道稱,Netflix有一個(gè)習(xí)慣,那就是無(wú)論劇集多受歡迎,都會(huì)在播出兩季后停播,因?yàn)楣?jié)目制作人往往會(huì)在第二季后要求加薪。對(duì)于一家一心想在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中脫穎而出的媒體公司來(lái)說(shuō),減少制作內(nèi)容似乎有悖常理。(一位接近Netflix的人士對(duì)《The Information》表示,Netflix并未制定這樣的政策。)

斯托勒說(shuō):“現(xiàn)在Netflix劇集的品質(zhì)跟以前已經(jīng)不可同日而語(yǔ)。”

Netflix未回應(yīng)置評(píng)請(qǐng)求。

與過(guò)去幾年相比,用戶對(duì)流媒體服務(wù)的熱情似乎普遍有所下降?!度A爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(Wall Street Journal)發(fā)現(xiàn),過(guò)去兩年間,約25%的流媒體用戶退訂了至少三項(xiàng)流媒體服務(wù),而2022年這一比例僅為15%。退訂用戶占用戶總數(shù)的比例也有所上升,這可能是因?yàn)橛脩粲嗛?、取消訂閱流媒體服務(wù)的頻率高于過(guò)往所致。不過(guò),盡管取消訂閱的人數(shù)比以前多,但大多數(shù)流媒體的用戶數(shù)量仍然在增長(zhǎng)。例如,Netflix的用戶數(shù)量在2023年第三季度就增加了900萬(wàn)。

雖然多克托羅的“平臺(tái)衰落”理論可以解釋用戶體驗(yàn)的變化,但卻并不一定能夠說(shuō)明公司經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)發(fā)生變化的原因。Netflix擁有2.47億用戶,比Max、Paramount+和Peacock加起來(lái)還要多。與此同時(shí),它的股價(jià)在過(guò)去12個(gè)月里飆升了53%。

盡管電影和電視節(jié)目乏善可陳,但在各大頒獎(jiǎng)禮的現(xiàn)場(chǎng)卻經(jīng)??梢钥吹絅etflix的身影。在本月的金球獎(jiǎng)(Golden Globes)評(píng)選中,Netflix共獲得28項(xiàng)提名。在奧斯卡方面,Netflix近年來(lái)一共獲得了近百項(xiàng)提名,其中20多項(xiàng)最終捧杯而歸。Netflix以很少插手電影制作人的創(chuàng)意工作而聞名,這種特點(diǎn)也幫助它吸引到了許多像馬丁·斯科塞斯、阿方索·卡隆和諾亞·鮑姆巴赫這樣的著名導(dǎo)演,理論上說(shuō),他們的電影將永久保存在Netflix的片庫(kù)之中。

競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手為何紛紛向Netflix授權(quán)熱門(mén)節(jié)目和劇集

很早以前,各大電影公司都很樂(lè)意把內(nèi)容授權(quán)給Netflix。不過(guò)在2019年至2020年流媒體戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)達(dá)到頂峰后,授權(quán)就停止了,各公司都把電影和節(jié)目保留在自家新推出的流媒體服務(wù)上。最突出的例子包括華納兄弟探索公司(Warner Bros. Discovery)將人們百看不厭的《老友記》(Friends)放在Max上播放;還有NBCUniversal收回在Peacock播放的《辦公室》(The Office)。

在2023年12月的一次演講中,Netflix的聯(lián)合首席執(zhí)行官泰德·薩蘭多斯稱,由于長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)各大電影公司一直積極授權(quán),對(duì)娛樂(lè)行業(yè)而言授權(quán)收緊是“不自然的狀態(tài)”。

然而近幾個(gè)月來(lái),越來(lái)越多的傳統(tǒng)媒體公司接受了Netflix主流流媒體的地位,授權(quán)內(nèi)容以努力挖掘龐大的受眾。舉例來(lái)說(shuō),華納兄弟授權(quán)票房大熱《海王》(Aquaman);NBCUniversal放出梅根·馬克爾主演的法律劇《金裝律師》(Suits)的播放權(quán);迪士尼(Disney)正在努力跟Netflix達(dá)成協(xié)議,授權(quán)播放《迷失》(Lost)等14部劇集。

多部劇集所獲成功遠(yuǎn)超在自家流媒體上的表現(xiàn)。例如,盡管《金裝律師》早在2011年就已經(jīng)首播,還是創(chuàng)下了尼爾森(Nielsen)流媒體收視冠軍周數(shù)的紀(jì)錄。

“不管通過(guò)何種途徑,我們跟幾乎所有的供應(yīng)商都在合作,也包括直接競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,我認(rèn)為我們貢獻(xiàn)了巨大價(jià)值?!彼_蘭多斯在2023年10月的電話財(cái)報(bào)會(huì)議上表示?!爸灰J(rèn)真思考劇集在Netflix上播出并獲得巨大成功的意義,就能夠明白其中持久的價(jià)值?!?/p>

華納兄弟探索公司的首席執(zhí)行官大衛(wèi)·扎斯拉夫稱,如果價(jià)格合理,就很樂(lè)意將《海王》和其他DC超級(jí)英雄電影授權(quán)給Netflix,因?yàn)樗J(rèn)為此舉有助于吸引觀眾觀看系列其他電影?!昂芏嗲闆r下確實(shí)對(duì)我們有幫助。”扎斯拉夫在最近的電話財(cái)報(bào)會(huì)議上表示?!叭藗儠?huì)想看一大堆DC電影,而唯一能夠看的地方就是Max。”

華爾街的一些分析師同意貝羅尼及其推文中的觀點(diǎn),即Netflix的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手授權(quán)內(nèi)容播放,表明其在流媒體領(lǐng)域的地位已經(jīng)不可動(dòng)搖。其他流媒體公司曾經(jīng)打算斥巨資競(jìng)爭(zhēng),如今皆已放棄。在用戶體量方面與Netflix最接近的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手迪士尼計(jì)劃今年削減20億美元的內(nèi)容支出。

2023年12月,Evercore的科技分析師馬克·馬哈尼告訴美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC):“其他媒體流媒體公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)已經(jīng)達(dá)到高峰。觸頂?shù)臉?biāo)志是,迪士尼的首席執(zhí)行官因?yàn)椤髅襟w虧損過(guò)多’而遭到解雇。如今其他流媒體都在削減開(kāi)支……也在給Netflix授權(quán)。因此,跟一年半前相比,競(jìng)爭(zhēng)態(tài)勢(shì)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)180度扭轉(zhuǎn)?!?span>(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

上周早些時(shí)候,一位頗具影響力的媒體分析師公開(kāi)宣稱,Netflix正式獲得了流媒體大戰(zhàn)的勝利。馬修·貝羅尼是一名娛樂(lè)記者,也是新聞創(chuàng)業(yè)公司Puck的創(chuàng)始人,他在X上發(fā)布的一張Netflix主頁(yè)圖片頗能反映流媒體行業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀。貝羅尼寫(xiě)道:“目前,Netflix上排名前十位的電影全部為傳統(tǒng)電影公司的作品,屬于授權(quán)播放,其中九部[包括華納兄弟公司(Warner Bros.)最近推出的四部熱門(mén)影片]來(lái)自擁有自己流媒體服務(wù)的電影公司。流媒體大戰(zhàn)已經(jīng)正式宣告結(jié)束?!?/p>

從競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手愿意把自己最優(yōu)秀的內(nèi)容提供給Netflix可以看出,他們已經(jīng)不再把比這家業(yè)內(nèi)最大的流媒體公司燒更多錢、玩出更多花樣當(dāng)作自己努力的目標(biāo)。相反,他們現(xiàn)在是把Netflix看作一個(gè)既擁有廣闊受眾又愿意購(gòu)買版權(quán)內(nèi)容的發(fā)行平臺(tái)。

在這種變化出現(xiàn)的同時(shí),是部分用戶開(kāi)始對(duì)流媒體服務(wù)越發(fā)不滿:會(huì)員費(fèi)越來(lái)越高,可供觀賞的新片卻越來(lái)越少。這里有一個(gè)明顯的悖論,那就是Netflix雖然未能贏得用戶歡心,卻能夠橫掃一眾競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,而之所以出現(xiàn)這種自相矛盾的情況,可以歸咎于所謂的“平臺(tái)衰落”理論,該理論描述了各種網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺(tái)緩慢衰落的過(guò)程。

“平臺(tái)的興亡往往有個(gè)過(guò)程”,該詞語(yǔ)的創(chuàng)造者、作家科里·多克托羅在一篇最初發(fā)表在他的網(wǎng)站上、后被《連線》(Wired)轉(zhuǎn)載的文章中寫(xiě)道,“一開(kāi)始,平臺(tái)對(duì)自己的用戶都很好,然后就開(kāi)始不把用戶當(dāng)回事了,滿心只想著更好地服務(wù)好企業(yè)客戶,最后,他們會(huì)連企業(yè)用戶也不再放在眼里,只是竭盡所能為自己攫取所有價(jià)值。就這樣一步步走向滅亡。”

平臺(tái)衰落

對(duì)于多克托羅創(chuàng)造的“平臺(tái)衰落”一詞,還有一種不太好聽(tīng)的說(shuō)法:“垃圾化”。他認(rèn)為,這種特點(diǎn)已經(jīng)融入頂級(jí)科技公司的商業(yè)模式之中。

多克托羅寫(xiě)道:“由于平臺(tái)分配價(jià)值的方式非常容易改變,其又具有‘雙面市場(chǎng)’的特質(zhì),能夠居于買賣雙方之間,利用二者互為挾制,從二者之間傳遞的價(jià)值中攫取越來(lái)越大的份額,這種結(jié)果似乎在所難免?!?/p>

Netflix似乎已經(jīng)獲得了流媒體大戰(zhàn)(近來(lái)最激烈的商業(yè)大戰(zhàn)之一)的勝利,這并不令人意外。畢竟是其開(kāi)創(chuàng)了這種“直接面向消費(fèi)者、無(wú)需開(kāi)通有線電視服務(wù)”的流媒體業(yè)態(tài)。Netflix還擁有大量的國(guó)際觀眾,這一點(diǎn)令它那些在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)遲遲不能打開(kāi)局面的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手羨慕不已。但與直覺(jué)相反的是,Netflix正在因?yàn)楣?jié)目質(zhì)量不佳、用戶滿意度下降而飽受批評(píng)。

著名好萊塢歷史學(xué)家彼得·比斯金德對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,他認(rèn)為Netflix的內(nèi)容“不值一看”。五年前,博主馬特·斯托勒曾經(jīng)撰文指出,如果Netflix在流媒體大戰(zhàn)中獲勝,那么那些質(zhì)量平庸的作品就將在其平臺(tái)上占據(jù)更大的份額,觀眾的選擇會(huì)越來(lái)越少,整個(gè)娛樂(lè)業(yè)都將因此受到傷害。斯托勒最近告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,Netflix將利用其“最強(qiáng)流媒體平臺(tái)”的地位來(lái)壓低電影制作人的費(fèi)用,“在與創(chuàng)作者殺價(jià)時(shí)下手會(huì)更狠”。一旦出現(xiàn)這種情況,那么Netflix將很難再制作出那些豐富多彩的內(nèi)容,導(dǎo)致觀眾的觀影選擇越來(lái)越少。五年后的今天,他說(shuō):“現(xiàn)在的情況似乎正好應(yīng)驗(yàn)了我之前的預(yù)測(cè)?!?/p>

2019年,也就是斯托勒最初博文發(fā)表的那一年,《The Information》上的一篇報(bào)道稱,Netflix有一個(gè)習(xí)慣,那就是無(wú)論劇集多受歡迎,都會(huì)在播出兩季后停播,因?yàn)楣?jié)目制作人往往會(huì)在第二季后要求加薪。對(duì)于一家一心想在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中脫穎而出的媒體公司來(lái)說(shuō),減少制作內(nèi)容似乎有悖常理。(一位接近Netflix的人士對(duì)《The Information》表示,Netflix并未制定這樣的政策。)

斯托勒說(shuō):“現(xiàn)在Netflix劇集的品質(zhì)跟以前已經(jīng)不可同日而語(yǔ)?!?/p>

Netflix未回應(yīng)置評(píng)請(qǐng)求。

與過(guò)去幾年相比,用戶對(duì)流媒體服務(wù)的熱情似乎普遍有所下降?!度A爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(Wall Street Journal)發(fā)現(xiàn),過(guò)去兩年間,約25%的流媒體用戶退訂了至少三項(xiàng)流媒體服務(wù),而2022年這一比例僅為15%。退訂用戶占用戶總數(shù)的比例也有所上升,這可能是因?yàn)橛脩粲嗛?、取消訂閱流媒體服務(wù)的頻率高于過(guò)往所致。不過(guò),盡管取消訂閱的人數(shù)比以前多,但大多數(shù)流媒體的用戶數(shù)量仍然在增長(zhǎng)。例如,Netflix的用戶數(shù)量在2023年第三季度就增加了900萬(wàn)。

雖然多克托羅的“平臺(tái)衰落”理論可以解釋用戶體驗(yàn)的變化,但卻并不一定能夠說(shuō)明公司經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)發(fā)生變化的原因。Netflix擁有2.47億用戶,比Max、Paramount+和Peacock加起來(lái)還要多。與此同時(shí),它的股價(jià)在過(guò)去12個(gè)月里飆升了53%。

盡管電影和電視節(jié)目乏善可陳,但在各大頒獎(jiǎng)禮的現(xiàn)場(chǎng)卻經(jīng)常可以看到Netflix的身影。在本月的金球獎(jiǎng)(Golden Globes)評(píng)選中,Netflix共獲得28項(xiàng)提名。在奧斯卡方面,Netflix近年來(lái)一共獲得了近百項(xiàng)提名,其中20多項(xiàng)最終捧杯而歸。Netflix以很少插手電影制作人的創(chuàng)意工作而聞名,這種特點(diǎn)也幫助它吸引到了許多像馬丁·斯科塞斯、阿方索·卡隆和諾亞·鮑姆巴赫這樣的著名導(dǎo)演,理論上說(shuō),他們的電影將永久保存在Netflix的片庫(kù)之中。

競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手為何紛紛向Netflix授權(quán)熱門(mén)節(jié)目和劇集

很早以前,各大電影公司都很樂(lè)意把內(nèi)容授權(quán)給Netflix。不過(guò)在2019年至2020年流媒體戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)達(dá)到頂峰后,授權(quán)就停止了,各公司都把電影和節(jié)目保留在自家新推出的流媒體服務(wù)上。最突出的例子包括華納兄弟探索公司(Warner Bros. Discovery)將人們百看不厭的《老友記》(Friends)放在Max上播放;還有NBCUniversal收回在Peacock播放的《辦公室》(The Office)。

在2023年12月的一次演講中,Netflix的聯(lián)合首席執(zhí)行官泰德·薩蘭多斯稱,由于長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)各大電影公司一直積極授權(quán),對(duì)娛樂(lè)行業(yè)而言授權(quán)收緊是“不自然的狀態(tài)”。

然而近幾個(gè)月來(lái),越來(lái)越多的傳統(tǒng)媒體公司接受了Netflix主流流媒體的地位,授權(quán)內(nèi)容以努力挖掘龐大的受眾。舉例來(lái)說(shuō),華納兄弟授權(quán)票房大熱《海王》(Aquaman);NBCUniversal放出梅根·馬克爾主演的法律劇《金裝律師》(Suits)的播放權(quán);迪士尼(Disney)正在努力跟Netflix達(dá)成協(xié)議,授權(quán)播放《迷失》(Lost)等14部劇集。

多部劇集所獲成功遠(yuǎn)超在自家流媒體上的表現(xiàn)。例如,盡管《金裝律師》早在2011年就已經(jīng)首播,還是創(chuàng)下了尼爾森(Nielsen)流媒體收視冠軍周數(shù)的紀(jì)錄。

“不管通過(guò)何種途徑,我們跟幾乎所有的供應(yīng)商都在合作,也包括直接競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,我認(rèn)為我們貢獻(xiàn)了巨大價(jià)值?!彼_蘭多斯在2023年10月的電話財(cái)報(bào)會(huì)議上表示?!爸灰J(rèn)真思考劇集在Netflix上播出并獲得巨大成功的意義,就能夠明白其中持久的價(jià)值?!?/p>

華納兄弟探索公司的首席執(zhí)行官大衛(wèi)·扎斯拉夫稱,如果價(jià)格合理,就很樂(lè)意將《海王》和其他DC超級(jí)英雄電影授權(quán)給Netflix,因?yàn)樗J(rèn)為此舉有助于吸引觀眾觀看系列其他電影?!昂芏嗲闆r下確實(shí)對(duì)我們有幫助?!痹估蛟谧罱碾娫捸?cái)報(bào)會(huì)議上表示。“人們會(huì)想看一大堆DC電影,而唯一能夠看的地方就是Max?!?/p>

華爾街的一些分析師同意貝羅尼及其推文中的觀點(diǎn),即Netflix的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手授權(quán)內(nèi)容播放,表明其在流媒體領(lǐng)域的地位已經(jīng)不可動(dòng)搖。其他流媒體公司曾經(jīng)打算斥巨資競(jìng)爭(zhēng),如今皆已放棄。在用戶體量方面與Netflix最接近的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手迪士尼計(jì)劃今年削減20億美元的內(nèi)容支出。

2023年12月,Evercore的科技分析師馬克·馬哈尼告訴美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC):“其他媒體流媒體公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)已經(jīng)達(dá)到高峰。觸頂?shù)臉?biāo)志是,迪士尼的首席執(zhí)行官因?yàn)椤髅襟w虧損過(guò)多’而遭到解雇。如今其他流媒體都在削減開(kāi)支……也在給Netflix授權(quán)。因此,跟一年半前相比,競(jìng)爭(zhēng)態(tài)勢(shì)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)180度扭轉(zhuǎn)?!?span>(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

Earlier last week an influential media analyst declared Netflix had officially won the streaming wars. Matthew Belloni, an entertainment journalist and founder of the news startup Puck, posted an image to X of his Netflix homepage that encapsulated the current state of streaming. “ALL of the Netflix Top 10 movies right now are licensed from legacy studios, and nine are from studios with their own streaming services (including four recent hits from Warner Bros.),” Belloni wrote. “The Streaming Wars are officially over.”

The fact that Netflix’s competitors have forked over some of their most prized content signals they are done trying to outspend and outmaneuver the industry’s biggest streamer. Instead they now see Netflix as a distributor that has both a vast audience and a willingness to license their content.

All this comes as some users sour on streaming, with complaints about rising prices and an increasingly smaller library of new titles to watch. This apparent paradox, of beating the competition while disappointing users, could be attributed to the theory of “platform decay,” which describes the slow decline of online platforms of any kind.

“Here is how platforms die,” Cory Doctorow, the writer who coined the phrase, wrote in an essay initially published on his website and then reprinted in Wired. “First, they are good to their users; then they abuse their users to make things better for their business customers; finally, they abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves. Then, they die.”

Platform decay

Doctorow’s less polite term for the platform decay is “enshittification.” He argues that it’s baked into the business model of the biggest tech companies.

“It is a seemingly inevitable consequence arising from the combination of the ease of changing how a platform allocates value, combined with the nature of a ‘two-sided market,’ where a platform sits between buyers and sellers, hold each hostage to the other, raking off an ever-larger share of the value that passes between them,” Doctorow writes.

The fact that Netflix seems to have won the streaming wars, one of the most competitive business fights in recent memory, isn’t a surprise. After all, it was a pioneer in direct-to-consumer streaming that wasn’t attached to a cable subscription. It amassed an international audience that dwarfs that of its competitors, which still falter in overseas markets. What does seem counterintuitive is that Netflix is criticized by some for the poor quality of its shows and declining user satisfaction.

The famed Hollywood historian Peter Biskind told Fortune he found Netflix “unwatchable.” Five years ago the blogger Matt Stoller wrote that should Netflix win the streaming wars it would hurt the entertainment industry, by emphasizing mediocre content and limiting options. Stoller argued Netflix would use its position as the strongest streamer to undercut filmmakers and “bargain more aggressively against creators,” he told Fortune recently. When this happens it will become harder for a broader assortment of content to be made, which leaves viewers with fewer options to watch. Now, five years later, he says “it seems like it’s played out consistent with what I had said.”

A report in The Information from 2019, the same year of Stoller’s original blog post, claimed Netflix had a habit of canceling shows after two seasons, regardless of how popular they were, because showrunners tended to ask for raises after their second season. Making less content would seem counterintuitive to a media company hellbent on outmuscling its competition. (A person close to Netflix told The Information it did not have such a policy).

“The products are not as good as they used to be,” Stoller now says.

Netflix did not respond to a request for comment.

Users do seem to have become generally less enthused with streaming services than they were in recent years. The Wall Street Journal found that around 25% of streaming customers canceled at least three streaming services over the last two years, up from 15% in 2022. Cancellations as a percentage of overall users have also grown, possibly because users are cycling in and out of streamers more frequently than they had in the past. Still, even though more people are canceling subscriptions than previously, most streamers are still growing. For example, Netflix added nine million users in the third quarter of 2023.

While Doctorow’s theory of platform decay might describe the user experience, it doesn’t necessarily apply to the company’s business performance. Netflix has 247 million subscribers more than Max, Paramount+, and Peacock combined. Meanwhile, its stock price has soared 53% over the last 12 months.

Despite claims of lackluster movies and TV shows, Netflix makes regular appearances during awards season. For this month’s Golden Globes, Netflix received 28 nominations. In terms of Oscars, it has well north of a hundred nominations over the years, winning over 20. Its well-known practice of offering few creative notes to filmmakers has helped it attract acclaimed directors like Martin Scorsese, Alfonso Cuaron, and Noah Baumbach, whose movies will, in theory, be in Netflix’s library in perpetuity.

Netflix licenses hit shows and box office smashes from competitors

Early on, major studios were happy to license their content to Netflix. But once the streaming wars reached their peak, from 2019 to 2020, the studios stopped, preferring instead to keep movies and shows on their own newly launched streaming services. Some of the most prominent examples included binge-watching staples like Friends, which Warner Bros. Discovery took to Max; and The Office, which returned to NBCUniversal’s Peacock.

In a speech in December, Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos called the lack of licensing an “unnatural state” for the entertainment industry because studios had long been built on the practice.

In recent months, however, a growing number of legacy media companies have accepted Netflix’s position as the dominant streamer and licensed it their content in an effort to tap into its huge audience. For example, WBD licensed box office hit Aquaman; NBCUniversal handed over the rights to stream Suits, the legal dramedy starring Meghan Markle; and Disney is working on a deal to stream 14 titles including Lost on Netflix.

Many such productions found success they may not have achieved on their parent company’s streamer. Suits, for example, set a record for the most weeks atop Nielsen’s streaming ratings—despite the show debuting in 2011.

“One way or another, we’re in business with nearly every supplier, including our direct competitors and I think that we bring a ton of value to them,” Sarandos said on an earnings call in October. “When you think about what happens when that show runs and becomes a huge success on Netflix, it has lasting value.”

WBD CEO David Zaslav says he’s happy to license Aquaman and other DC superhero movies to Netflix if the money is good enough under the belief it helps attract viewers to the franchise’s other movies. “In many cases it really helps us,” Zaslav said on a recent earnings call. “People come back and then they want to see the full bouquet of DC movies and the only place to do that is” on Max.

Some Wall Street analysts agree with Belloni and his tweet that the fact Netflix’s competitors license content to it is a sign of its impregnable position atop the streaming heap. While other media companies were willing to spend, and lose, vast sums of money in an attempt to compete, they’ve now pulled back on such an approach. Disney, the closest of Netflix’s rivals in terms of subscribers, plans to cut $2 billion from its content spending this year.

“Competition from the other media streaming companies has peaked,” Evercore tech analyst Mark Mahaney told CNBC last month. “It peaked when the CEO of Disney got fired for ‘excess streaming losses.’ All you’ve seen the other streamers do now is cut their spend…and they’re licensing to Netflix. So the competitive dynamics have changed 180 degrees from a year and a half ago.”

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