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微軟CEO解鎖新成就:微軟市值突破3萬億美元

PAOLO CONFINO
2024-01-26

在前兩周,微軟甚至超過蘋果,成為全球最有價值的公司。

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圖片來源:GETTY IMAGES

科技公司的工作曾經(jīng)被認(rèn)為是就業(yè)保障的代名詞。但去年科技行業(yè)經(jīng)歷了十多年來規(guī)模最大的裁員潮,再加上可能搶走工作的人工智能的興起,現(xiàn)在科技行業(yè)的從業(yè)者前景不容樂觀,他們可能面臨失去生計來源的風(fēng)險。

就業(yè)市場研究公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.的報告稱,除了2020年疫情導(dǎo)致的裁員外,去年科技行業(yè)的年度裁員人數(shù)創(chuàng)下自大衰退以來的最高紀(jì)錄,科技公司的預(yù)算中減少了超過72萬個就業(yè)崗位。這種趨勢延續(xù)到了2024年第一個月,谷歌(Google)和亞馬遜(Amazon)以及多家小規(guī)模科技公司在最近幾周宣布繼續(xù)裁員。

為什么公司現(xiàn)在裁員?行業(yè)觀察家認(rèn)為,對利潤的追求、疫情期間大肆招聘的后遺癥、快速發(fā)展的人工智能和有些諷刺的通脹增速放緩,都影響了這些公司的決策,而裁員時機的選擇可以歸咎于公司的預(yù)算時間表。但令人欣慰的是,勞動力市場依舊緊張,被裁的科技行業(yè)從業(yè)者應(yīng)該能在其他公司找到工作。

谷歌和亞馬遜削減成本以提高利潤

谷歌在本周宣布裁員時明確表示,裁員數(shù)百人是為了進一步削減成本。谷歌CEO桑達(dá)爾·皮查伊在一份備忘錄中對員工表示,公司希望增加對AI等新興領(lǐng)域的投資,同時削減其他領(lǐng)域的成本。他在經(jīng)過《財富》雜志確認(rèn)的備忘錄中寫道:“我們有宏大的目標(biāo),今年我們將投資公司的重點領(lǐng)域。”谷歌發(fā)言人稱此次裁員是“負(fù)責(zé)任地投資公司影響最大的重點領(lǐng)域”,并表示“許多團隊成員做出了改變,以提升自己的效率和工作績效”。一些谷歌員工對這種裁員理由予以反駁。Alphabet工會的成員在一份新聞稿中批評公司“愚蠢的、誤入歧途的決策”。

其他市值達(dá)數(shù)十億美元的科技公司也宣布裁員,如亞馬遜宣布在媒體部門裁員數(shù)百名員工,包括Prime Video、Amazon MGM Studios、視頻流媒體平臺Twitch和有聲書與播客部門Audible等。亞馬遜去年裁員數(shù)萬人,但裁員的部門對公司的利潤沒有太大影響,包括語音助手Alexa。而本月裁員的目的似乎是在高成本、低利潤的內(nèi)容領(lǐng)域削減成本。亞馬遜在內(nèi)容方面的支出,僅次于奈飛(Netflix)和迪士尼(Disney),排在第三位。

疫情期間大量招聘的后遺癥

Challenger公司認(rèn)為,科技巨頭繼續(xù)裁員的另外一個原因是,在2021年和2022年期間,許多大公司“大肆招聘”,因此它們依舊有大量員工儲備。去年裁員的原因是,許多公司意識到它們之前過度招聘后,選擇削減員工規(guī)模。而有些公司之所以最近裁員,是因為它們意識到第一輪裁員的力度不夠。

Challenger表示,從招聘到裁員,“科技行業(yè)是人才周轉(zhuǎn)速度最快的行業(yè)之一”。

經(jīng)過疫情期間的繁榮之后,由于利率長時間維持在高位,科技公司也在為增長速度放緩做準(zhǔn)備。長期高利率也讓公司重新關(guān)注盈利能力。Twitch CEO丹·克蘭西上周寫道:“與科技行業(yè)的其他許多公司一樣,我們現(xiàn)在會根據(jù)目前的業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模決定員工人數(shù)?!彼€表示,公司出于謹(jǐn)慎,“保守預(yù)測了我們對未來增長的預(yù)期”。

AI在科技行業(yè)其他領(lǐng)域中的崛起,也讓科技行業(yè)的招聘環(huán)境變得更嚴(yán)峻。隨著AI聊天機器人ChatGPT的爆火,科技公司紛紛展開軍備競賽,大力招聘AI相關(guān)崗位,希望在所謂的下一次科技繁榮中領(lǐng)先。與此同時,科技公司開始縮減非AI領(lǐng)域的規(guī)模,以控制支出并維持公司的盈利能力。Challenger表示,大家擔(dān)心AI會搶走人類的工作,這一點也可能產(chǎn)生了影響,但在目前的裁員中它的影響有限。報告顯示,去年因為AI被裁員的人數(shù)為4,000人,但Challenger表示,“這在未來應(yīng)該引起我們的擔(dān)憂”。

通脹下降是壞消息

Challenger表示,諷刺的是,雖然通脹下降是消費者的福音,但它卻會影響科技行業(yè)的裁員。截至上個月,美國的年度通脹率約為3%,遠(yuǎn)低于去年年初的6%。Challenger還表示,由于物價不再快速上漲,公司更難提高服務(wù)價格,因為客戶的薪酬也受到了通脹的影響,他們可能不愿意為這些服務(wù)支付更高的價格。

他說道:“公司更難像以前一樣漲價”,同時還要支付上漲的勞動力成本。 “因此本輪通脹周期是這些公司裁員的主要原因之一?!?/p>

他說道,發(fā)現(xiàn)自己即將失業(yè)絕非好事,但他解釋稱,這是比大多數(shù)時候更好的一個時期,因為“失業(yè)率依舊低于4%,而且許多失業(yè)者現(xiàn)在有較高的概率很快找到新工作?!?/p>

合適的時機:裁員不止會發(fā)生在年末

公司選擇在1月裁員,還有另外一個原因,那就是公司的預(yù)算時間表。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家瑞秋·索德伯格對《今日美國》(USA Today)表示,每年12月和1月往往是裁員高峰,因為公司要為新一年的結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整做準(zhǔn)備。

索德伯格是就業(yè)市場分析公司Lightcast的高級經(jīng)濟學(xué)家。她對《今日美國》稱:“許多公司的財年在12月或1月結(jié)束。他們會仔細(xì)研究資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表狀況和公司的業(yè)績,并根據(jù)研究結(jié)果進行決策。這些決策有時候會對員工產(chǎn)生影響?!?/p>

Challenger對《財富》雜志表示,“隨著時間的推移,財年末會發(fā)生變化”,這讓一些公司可以避免在節(jié)日前后裁員。但這種變化對上班族而言喜憂參半,因為這可能意味著與以前相比,裁員造成的痛苦會更深刻地延續(xù)到新的一年。

12月的裁員人數(shù)環(huán)比減少了24%,是2023年月度裁員人數(shù)第二低的一個月份。與2022年12月相比,今年的裁員人數(shù)減少了20%。Challenger認(rèn)為,至少在新年的第一個季度,還會有更多裁員。

重視盈利能力

在媒體等相關(guān)行業(yè),在嚴(yán)酷的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境下,公司關(guān)注的焦點轉(zhuǎn)向了盈利能力,因此這些行業(yè)也在繼續(xù)裁員。

媒體行業(yè)的裁員力度甚至超過了其他行業(yè)。去年,媒體行業(yè)裁員超過21,400人,比2022年同期的約3,750人增加了超過460%。除了2020年以外,這是該行業(yè)自2009年以來裁員人數(shù)最多的一年。媒體行業(yè)在2009年裁員超過22,000人。

在11月的一輪裁員中,網(wǎng)絡(luò)出版商Vox Media裁員4%。而在3月初,該公司已經(jīng)裁員7%?!禫ogue》、《智族》(GQ)和《名利場》(Vanity Fair)等雜志的出版商康泰納仕集團(Conde Nast),在11月裁員5%。本周,《體育畫報》(Sports Illustrated)宣布將裁撤整個新聞編輯部,而《洛杉磯時報》(Los Angeles Times)的員工則走上街頭,抗議該報紙的老板承諾的“大幅”裁員。

Challenger表示,新的一年預(yù)計將會延續(xù)裁員潮。他說道:“過去一年,我們看到每個行業(yè)的裁員人數(shù)都有所增加。這只是今年裁員人數(shù)最多的三個行業(yè)。”(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

科技公司的工作曾經(jīng)被認(rèn)為是就業(yè)保障的代名詞。但去年科技行業(yè)經(jīng)歷了十多年來規(guī)模最大的裁員潮,再加上可能搶走工作的人工智能的興起,現(xiàn)在科技行業(yè)的從業(yè)者前景不容樂觀,他們可能面臨失去生計來源的風(fēng)險。

就業(yè)市場研究公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.的報告稱,除了2020年疫情導(dǎo)致的裁員外,去年科技行業(yè)的年度裁員人數(shù)創(chuàng)下自大衰退以來的最高紀(jì)錄,科技公司的預(yù)算中減少了超過72萬個就業(yè)崗位。這種趨勢延續(xù)到了2024年第一個月,谷歌(Google)和亞馬遜(Amazon)以及多家小規(guī)??萍脊驹谧罱鼛字苄祭^續(xù)裁員。

為什么公司現(xiàn)在裁員?行業(yè)觀察家認(rèn)為,對利潤的追求、疫情期間大肆招聘的后遺癥、快速發(fā)展的人工智能和有些諷刺的通脹增速放緩,都影響了這些公司的決策,而裁員時機的選擇可以歸咎于公司的預(yù)算時間表。但令人欣慰的是,勞動力市場依舊緊張,被裁的科技行業(yè)從業(yè)者應(yīng)該能在其他公司找到工作。

谷歌和亞馬遜削減成本以提高利潤

谷歌在本周宣布裁員時明確表示,裁員數(shù)百人是為了進一步削減成本。谷歌CEO桑達(dá)爾·皮查伊在一份備忘錄中對員工表示,公司希望增加對AI等新興領(lǐng)域的投資,同時削減其他領(lǐng)域的成本。他在經(jīng)過《財富》雜志確認(rèn)的備忘錄中寫道:“我們有宏大的目標(biāo),今年我們將投資公司的重點領(lǐng)域?!惫雀璋l(fā)言人稱此次裁員是“負(fù)責(zé)任地投資公司影響最大的重點領(lǐng)域”,并表示“許多團隊成員做出了改變,以提升自己的效率和工作績效”。一些谷歌員工對這種裁員理由予以反駁。Alphabet工會的成員在一份新聞稿中批評公司“愚蠢的、誤入歧途的決策”。

其他市值達(dá)數(shù)十億美元的科技公司也宣布裁員,如亞馬遜宣布在媒體部門裁員數(shù)百名員工,包括Prime Video、Amazon MGM Studios、視頻流媒體平臺Twitch和有聲書與播客部門Audible等。亞馬遜去年裁員數(shù)萬人,但裁員的部門對公司的利潤沒有太大影響,包括語音助手Alexa。而本月裁員的目的似乎是在高成本、低利潤的內(nèi)容領(lǐng)域削減成本。亞馬遜在內(nèi)容方面的支出,僅次于奈飛(Netflix)和迪士尼(Disney),排在第三位。

疫情期間大量招聘的后遺癥

Challenger公司認(rèn)為,科技巨頭繼續(xù)裁員的另外一個原因是,在2021年和2022年期間,許多大公司“大肆招聘”,因此它們依舊有大量員工儲備。去年裁員的原因是,許多公司意識到它們之前過度招聘后,選擇削減員工規(guī)模。而有些公司之所以最近裁員,是因為它們意識到第一輪裁員的力度不夠。

Challenger表示,從招聘到裁員,“科技行業(yè)是人才周轉(zhuǎn)速度最快的行業(yè)之一”。

經(jīng)過疫情期間的繁榮之后,由于利率長時間維持在高位,科技公司也在為增長速度放緩做準(zhǔn)備。長期高利率也讓公司重新關(guān)注盈利能力。Twitch CEO丹·克蘭西上周寫道:“與科技行業(yè)的其他許多公司一樣,我們現(xiàn)在會根據(jù)目前的業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模決定員工人數(shù)?!彼€表示,公司出于謹(jǐn)慎,“保守預(yù)測了我們對未來增長的預(yù)期”。

AI在科技行業(yè)其他領(lǐng)域中的崛起,也讓科技行業(yè)的招聘環(huán)境變得更嚴(yán)峻。隨著AI聊天機器人ChatGPT的爆火,科技公司紛紛展開軍備競賽,大力招聘AI相關(guān)崗位,希望在所謂的下一次科技繁榮中領(lǐng)先。與此同時,科技公司開始縮減非AI領(lǐng)域的規(guī)模,以控制支出并維持公司的盈利能力。Challenger表示,大家擔(dān)心AI會搶走人類的工作,這一點也可能產(chǎn)生了影響,但在目前的裁員中它的影響有限。報告顯示,去年因為AI被裁員的人數(shù)為4,000人,但Challenger表示,“這在未來應(yīng)該引起我們的擔(dān)憂”。

通脹下降是壞消息

Challenger表示,諷刺的是,雖然通脹下降是消費者的福音,但它卻會影響科技行業(yè)的裁員。截至上個月,美國的年度通脹率約為3%,遠(yuǎn)低于去年年初的6%。Challenger還表示,由于物價不再快速上漲,公司更難提高服務(wù)價格,因為客戶的薪酬也受到了通脹的影響,他們可能不愿意為這些服務(wù)支付更高的價格。

他說道:“公司更難像以前一樣漲價”,同時還要支付上漲的勞動力成本。 “因此本輪通脹周期是這些公司裁員的主要原因之一?!?/p>

他說道,發(fā)現(xiàn)自己即將失業(yè)絕非好事,但他解釋稱,這是比大多數(shù)時候更好的一個時期,因為“失業(yè)率依舊低于4%,而且許多失業(yè)者現(xiàn)在有較高的概率很快找到新工作?!?/p>

合適的時機:裁員不止會發(fā)生在年末

公司選擇在1月裁員,還有另外一個原因,那就是公司的預(yù)算時間表。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家瑞秋·索德伯格對《今日美國》(USA Today)表示,每年12月和1月往往是裁員高峰,因為公司要為新一年的結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整做準(zhǔn)備。

索德伯格是就業(yè)市場分析公司Lightcast的高級經(jīng)濟學(xué)家。她對《今日美國》稱:“許多公司的財年在12月或1月結(jié)束。他們會仔細(xì)研究資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表狀況和公司的業(yè)績,并根據(jù)研究結(jié)果進行決策。這些決策有時候會對員工產(chǎn)生影響?!?/p>

Challenger對《財富》雜志表示,“隨著時間的推移,財年末會發(fā)生變化”,這讓一些公司可以避免在節(jié)日前后裁員。但這種變化對上班族而言喜憂參半,因為這可能意味著與以前相比,裁員造成的痛苦會更深刻地延續(xù)到新的一年。

12月的裁員人數(shù)環(huán)比減少了24%,是2023年月度裁員人數(shù)第二低的一個月份。與2022年12月相比,今年的裁員人數(shù)減少了20%。Challenger認(rèn)為,至少在新年的第一個季度,還會有更多裁員。

重視盈利能力

在媒體等相關(guān)行業(yè),在嚴(yán)酷的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境下,公司關(guān)注的焦點轉(zhuǎn)向了盈利能力,因此這些行業(yè)也在繼續(xù)裁員。

媒體行業(yè)的裁員力度甚至超過了其他行業(yè)。去年,媒體行業(yè)裁員超過21,400人,比2022年同期的約3,750人增加了超過460%。除了2020年以外,這是該行業(yè)自2009年以來裁員人數(shù)最多的一年。媒體行業(yè)在2009年裁員超過22,000人。

在11月的一輪裁員中,網(wǎng)絡(luò)出版商Vox Media裁員4%。而在3月初,該公司已經(jīng)裁員7%?!禫ogue》、《智族》(GQ)和《名利場》(Vanity Fair)等雜志的出版商康泰納仕集團(Conde Nast),在11月裁員5%。本周,《體育畫報》(Sports Illustrated)宣布將裁撤整個新聞編輯部,而《洛杉磯時報》(Los Angeles Times)的員工則走上街頭,抗議該報紙的老板承諾的“大幅”裁員。

Challenger表示,新的一年預(yù)計將會延續(xù)裁員潮。他說道:“過去一年,我們看到每個行業(yè)的裁員人數(shù)都有所增加。這只是今年裁員人數(shù)最多的三個行業(yè)。”(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

Technology jobs were once synonymous with job security. But after last year, one of the biggest for layoffs in over a decade, combined with the rise of potentially job-killing artificial intelligence, a bleak horizon hovers over the humans in the technology industry who are now at risk of losing their livelihoods.

With the exception of the pandemic-driven job cuts in 2020, last year saw the highest yearly total of tech job cuts since the Great Recession, with companies cutting more than 720,000 jobs from their budgets, according to a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., a job market research company. And that’s continued into the first month of 2024, with Google, Amazon and smaller tech firms announcing further cuts in recent weeks.

But why are companies slashing jobs now? A drive for profitability, the remains of the pandemic hiring hangover, rapidly developing AI and—somewhat ironically—slowing inflation all play a part, according to industry watchers, while the timing can be blamed on the corporate budget calendar. But there’s a silver lining, with the still-tight labor market meaning laid-off techies should be able to find work elsewhere.

Cost-cutting as Google and Amazon search for profit

Google was clear in its job-cut announcement this week that it was cutting several hundred workers to further reduce costs. CEO Sundar Pichai told employees in a memo that the company wanted to invest more in emerging areas, including AI, while cutting costs elsewhere. “We have ambitious goals and will be investing in our big priorities this year,” he wrote in a memo confirmed by Fortune. A company spokesperson characterized the cuts as “responsibly investing in our company’s biggest priorities” and said “a number of our teams made changes to become more efficient and work better.” Some Google employees pushed back against this rationale, with members of the Alphabet Workers Union blasting the company’s “senseless, misguided corporate decision making” in a press release.

Other multi-billion-dollar tech companies, like Amazon, also announced hundreds of employee cuts from its media divisions, including Prime Video, Amazon MGM Studios, video streaming platform Twitch, and Audible, its audiobook and podcast division. After tens of thousands of cuts last year, which hit areas seen as less essential to the company’s bottom line including voice-assistant Alexa, this month’s cuts likewise attempts to slash costs in the high-cost, lower-profit area of content, where Amazon is the number-three spender after rivals Netflix and Disney.

Pandemic hiring boom still deflating

Another reason tech giants can keep reducing their ranks of employees is because their employee pools are still quite deep, after the “wild hiring spree” that many big companies embarked on during 2021 and 2022, as Challenger said. Last year’s cuts were a result of that spree, when many tech companies trimmed down their workforces after realizing they over-hired in prior years. With the latest cuts, some of those companies are realizing they didn’t cut enough in the first rounds.

From hiring to layoffs, “tech is one of the areas that has seen the quickest turnaround,” Challenger said.

After the pandemic boom, companies are also buckling in for slower growth ahead, with interest rates staying higher for longer—which also plays into the renewed focus on profitability. “As with many other companies in the tech space, we are now sizing our organization based upon the current scale of our business,” Twitch CEO Dan Clancy wrote last week, adding that his company is erring on the side of caution with “conservative predictions of how we expect to grow in the future.”

Relatedly, the rise of AI in other parts of the tech world has also made the climate frostier for technology hires. Since the massive popularization of AI chatbot ChatGPT, companies have been focused on hiring AI-adjacent roles in an arms race with competitors to get ahead of what’s believed to be the next tech boom. At the same time, they’re downsizing non-AI areas to manage their expenses and keep their businesses profitable. And AI’s feared job-killing aspects could have ramifications here, too, although it’s only playing a small role at the moment, Challenger said. Companies said AI was responsible for 4,000 cuts last year, per the report, but it “is something we’re concerned about for the future,” Challenger said.

Falling inflation is a bad sign

Ironically, the falling inflation that has been a boon for consumers is also a factor in the tech layoffs, according to Challenger. As of last month, annual inflation is around 3%, substantially lower than its 6% rate at the start of the year. But because prices are no longer rising as quickly, this makes it harder for companies to raise the cost of their services, as customers, whose paychecks are also stymied by inflation, may not be willing to pay more for them, Challenger said.

“It’s harder for companies to increase their prices as they have been,” while also paying for increased labor costs, he said. “So this inflationary cycle is one of the main culprits for these layoffs.”

It’s never great to find out you’re losing your job, he said, but explained that this period is better than most because “unemployment is still below 4%, and a lot of people that lose their jobs now have a high likelihood of finding more work pretty quickly.”

The right timing: layoffs are not just for year-end

There’s another reason for the timing of cuts in January, and that’s simply the corporate budget calendar. Job cuts tend to spike in December and January as companies prepare for structural changes heading into the new year, economist Rachel Sederberg told USA Today.

“A lot of firms are reaching their fiscal year-end,” Sederberg, senior economist at labor markets analytics firm Lightcast, told the outlet. “They’re taking a hard look at what’s going on their balance sheets as well as how the business is performing, and they make decisions along those lines. And sometimes that has implications for workers.”

Challenger told Fortune that “fiscal year-ends have shifted over time,” which allows some companies to refrain from cutting workers right before or after the holidays. That’s a bittersweet development for workers, since it can mean the pain of layoffs extends deeper into a new year than before.

In December, job cuts were down by 24% from the previous month and marked the second-lowest monthly cuts in 2023. Compared to December 2022, this year’s cuts are down by 20%. Challenger confirmed that more cuts should be expected at least into the first quarter of the new year.

Priorities in profitability

Related sectors, like media, have also seen more cuts as companies shift focus on profitability in a tough economic climate.

Job cuts in media industries have boomed even more than the rest. Last year, the industry scraped over 21,400 jobs, up more than 460% from about 3,750 jobs cut during the same period in 2022. With an exception of 2020, it’s the most jobs the industry has slashed since 2009, which saw over 22,000 jobs cut.

In a round of layoffs in November, online publisher Vox Media cut 4% of its staff. Earlier in March, the company slashed 7% of its workforce. Conde Nast, which publishes magazines like Vogue, GQ and Vanity Fair, fired 5% of its employees in November. This week, Sports Illustrated said it would cut its entire newsroom, while staff at the Los Angeles Times walked out in protest of “substantial” job cuts that the paper’s owner had promised.

Looking ahead, Challenger said that the cuts are expected to continue into the new year. “We’ve seen job cuts increase over every sector in the past year,” he said. “These three have just seen the most this year.”

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