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美國(guó)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)正在降溫,中老年人回歸汽油車(chē)

DYLAN SLOAN
2024-01-30

美銀一份報(bào)告指出,美國(guó)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)增速出現(xiàn)放緩跡象,特別是中老年人正在對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)失去興趣。

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圖片來(lái)源:PASCAL BACHELET—BSIP/UNIVERSAL IMAGES GROUP/GETTY IMAGES

美銀研究所最新發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中下調(diào)了對(duì)2030年電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)的銷(xiāo)量預(yù)期,原因是美銀的內(nèi)部汽車(chē)貸款數(shù)據(jù)顯示了電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)乏力。美銀在這份報(bào)告中指出,電動(dòng)汽車(chē)是汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)中“仍顯相對(duì)疲軟”的一個(gè)領(lǐng)域。美銀還列出了消費(fèi)者不愿意購(gòu)買(mǎi)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的三個(gè)原因。同時(shí)這里還有年齡和時(shí)代因素——美國(guó)的“嬰兒潮”一代人和所謂的“傳統(tǒng)主義者”是最先對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)敬而遠(yuǎn)之的。

以美銀研究所高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家大衛(wèi)·邁克爾·廷斯利為首的分析師團(tuán)隊(duì)發(fā)現(xiàn),新冠疫情之后,美國(guó)在2021年至2023年出現(xiàn)了一波電動(dòng)汽車(chē)熱,銷(xiāo)量增長(zhǎng)了3倍。但從去年下半年開(kāi)始,電動(dòng)汽車(chē)熱已經(jīng)有所退燒。分析師們給出了三個(gè)主要原因:“一是買(mǎi)不起,二是選擇有限,三是里程焦慮?!边€有人擔(dān)心電動(dòng)汽車(chē)可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致一些意外狀況,就像今年1月份發(fā)生在芝加哥的一起事件一樣,有消費(fèi)者發(fā)現(xiàn)一旦氣溫下降到零下30多攝氏度,他們的特斯拉就充不進(jìn)去電了。

另外,美銀的數(shù)據(jù)清楚地顯示,這一波反電動(dòng)汽車(chē)?yán)顺敝饕侵欣夏耆藥?dòng)起來(lái)的。1965年以前出生的美國(guó)人對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的需求量從去年秋天開(kāi)始逐步下降,目前已經(jīng)低于年輕消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買(mǎi)意愿,而且這一趨勢(shì)短期內(nèi)并沒(méi)有扭轉(zhuǎn)的跡象。

廷斯利在接受《財(cái)富》采訪時(shí)表示:“年輕一代可能對(duì)低碳出行更感興趣。但對(duì)于中老年人來(lái)說(shuō),只有當(dāng)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的價(jià)格降得足夠便宜,他們才會(huì)考慮這么做?!?/p>

在持續(xù)了兩年的熱潮后,電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)正在逐步降溫,美國(guó)各大電動(dòng)汽車(chē)廠商也紛紛勒緊了褲腰帶。事實(shí)證明,純電汽車(chē)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有之前預(yù)想的那么受歡迎。而且中國(guó)的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)可能很快就會(huì)在美上市了,屆時(shí)美國(guó)廠商根本無(wú)法在價(jià)格上與1.5萬(wàn)美元以下的中國(guó)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

這份報(bào)告還指出,價(jià)格問(wèn)題也是美國(guó)老百姓對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)敬而遠(yuǎn)之的一個(gè)重要原因。美國(guó)在售的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)中,只有20款車(chē)型的起步價(jià)低于4.5萬(wàn)美元。換言之,美國(guó)廠商只盯著高端電動(dòng)汽車(chē),而忽略了更有群眾基礎(chǔ)的中低端市場(chǎng),從而錯(cuò)過(guò)了銷(xiāo)量。

另外,美國(guó)政府的稅收優(yōu)惠政策也對(duì)美國(guó)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)行業(yè)的崛起發(fā)揮了至關(guān)重要的作用。美國(guó)的《降低通脹法案》為電動(dòng)汽車(chē)購(gòu)買(mǎi)者提供了高達(dá)7500美元的免稅補(bǔ)貼。但是今年美國(guó)又迎來(lái)了選舉年,以后的政策怎么樣還很難說(shuō),這可能會(huì)讓消費(fèi)者質(zhì)疑下屆政府是否還會(huì)繼續(xù)補(bǔ)貼電動(dòng)汽車(chē)。(而且美國(guó)政府還剛剛?cè)∠藢?duì)幾十種車(chē)型的稅收優(yōu)惠。)此外,圍繞電動(dòng)汽車(chē)還有大量的負(fù)面報(bào)道,很多人在觀望之下,最終還是決定買(mǎi)一輛更便宜的汽油車(chē)算了。

“電動(dòng)汽車(chē)最近的名聲不太好——既有成本問(wèn)題,也有故障或者充不進(jìn)去電的問(wèn)題。在我看來(lái),這里負(fù)面報(bào)道對(duì)老一代人的影響可能比對(duì)年輕一代更大?!蓖⑺估f(shuō)。

美銀的報(bào)告指出,雖然電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)目前不太景氣,但插電式混動(dòng)車(chē)型很可能會(huì)在美國(guó)受到更大的歡迎。在過(guò)去一年半里,這種混動(dòng)車(chē)型在美國(guó)的市場(chǎng)份額一直在穩(wěn)步上升。雖然它沒(méi)有純電車(chē)那么環(huán)保,但它的碳排放量還是比傳統(tǒng)汽油車(chē)低得多。

廷斯利表示:“插電式混動(dòng)車(chē)的碳排放量只相當(dāng)于汽油車(chē)的30%。條條大路通羅馬,插電式混動(dòng)也是一個(gè)不壞的選擇,特別是如果這條技術(shù)路線被大規(guī)模采用的話?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

美銀研究所最新發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中下調(diào)了對(duì)2030年電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)的銷(xiāo)量預(yù)期,原因是美銀的內(nèi)部汽車(chē)貸款數(shù)據(jù)顯示了電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)乏力。美銀在這份報(bào)告中指出,電動(dòng)汽車(chē)是汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)中“仍顯相對(duì)疲軟”的一個(gè)領(lǐng)域。美銀還列出了消費(fèi)者不愿意購(gòu)買(mǎi)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的三個(gè)原因。同時(shí)這里還有年齡和時(shí)代因素——美國(guó)的“嬰兒潮”一代人和所謂的“傳統(tǒng)主義者”是最先對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)敬而遠(yuǎn)之的。

以美銀研究所高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家大衛(wèi)·邁克爾·廷斯利為首的分析師團(tuán)隊(duì)發(fā)現(xiàn),新冠疫情之后,美國(guó)在2021年至2023年出現(xiàn)了一波電動(dòng)汽車(chē)熱,銷(xiāo)量增長(zhǎng)了3倍。但從去年下半年開(kāi)始,電動(dòng)汽車(chē)熱已經(jīng)有所退燒。分析師們給出了三個(gè)主要原因:“一是買(mǎi)不起,二是選擇有限,三是里程焦慮?!边€有人擔(dān)心電動(dòng)汽車(chē)可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致一些意外狀況,就像今年1月份發(fā)生在芝加哥的一起事件一樣,有消費(fèi)者發(fā)現(xiàn)一旦氣溫下降到零下30多攝氏度,他們的特斯拉就充不進(jìn)去電了。

另外,美銀的數(shù)據(jù)清楚地顯示,這一波反電動(dòng)汽車(chē)?yán)顺敝饕侵欣夏耆藥?dòng)起來(lái)的。1965年以前出生的美國(guó)人對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的需求量從去年秋天開(kāi)始逐步下降,目前已經(jīng)低于年輕消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買(mǎi)意愿,而且這一趨勢(shì)短期內(nèi)并沒(méi)有扭轉(zhuǎn)的跡象。

廷斯利在接受《財(cái)富》采訪時(shí)表示:“年輕一代可能對(duì)低碳出行更感興趣。但對(duì)于中老年人來(lái)說(shuō),只有當(dāng)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的價(jià)格降得足夠便宜,他們才會(huì)考慮這么做?!?/p>

在持續(xù)了兩年的熱潮后,電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)正在逐步降溫,美國(guó)各大電動(dòng)汽車(chē)廠商也紛紛勒緊了褲腰帶。事實(shí)證明,純電汽車(chē)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有之前預(yù)想的那么受歡迎。而且中國(guó)的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)可能很快就會(huì)在美上市了,屆時(shí)美國(guó)廠商根本無(wú)法在價(jià)格上與1.5萬(wàn)美元以下的中國(guó)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

這份報(bào)告還指出,價(jià)格問(wèn)題也是美國(guó)老百姓對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)敬而遠(yuǎn)之的一個(gè)重要原因。美國(guó)在售的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)中,只有20款車(chē)型的起步價(jià)低于4.5萬(wàn)美元。換言之,美國(guó)廠商只盯著高端電動(dòng)汽車(chē),而忽略了更有群眾基礎(chǔ)的中低端市場(chǎng),從而錯(cuò)過(guò)了銷(xiāo)量。

另外,美國(guó)政府的稅收優(yōu)惠政策也對(duì)美國(guó)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)行業(yè)的崛起發(fā)揮了至關(guān)重要的作用。美國(guó)的《降低通脹法案》為電動(dòng)汽車(chē)購(gòu)買(mǎi)者提供了高達(dá)7500美元的免稅補(bǔ)貼。但是今年美國(guó)又迎來(lái)了選舉年,以后的政策怎么樣還很難說(shuō),這可能會(huì)讓消費(fèi)者質(zhì)疑下屆政府是否還會(huì)繼續(xù)補(bǔ)貼電動(dòng)汽車(chē)。(而且美國(guó)政府還剛剛?cè)∠藢?duì)幾十種車(chē)型的稅收優(yōu)惠。)此外,圍繞電動(dòng)汽車(chē)還有大量的負(fù)面報(bào)道,很多人在觀望之下,最終還是決定買(mǎi)一輛更便宜的汽油車(chē)算了。

“電動(dòng)汽車(chē)最近的名聲不太好——既有成本問(wèn)題,也有故障或者充不進(jìn)去電的問(wèn)題。在我看來(lái),這里負(fù)面報(bào)道對(duì)老一代人的影響可能比對(duì)年輕一代更大?!蓖⑺估f(shuō)。

美銀的報(bào)告指出,雖然電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)目前不太景氣,但插電式混動(dòng)車(chē)型很可能會(huì)在美國(guó)受到更大的歡迎。在過(guò)去一年半里,這種混動(dòng)車(chē)型在美國(guó)的市場(chǎng)份額一直在穩(wěn)步上升。雖然它沒(méi)有純電車(chē)那么環(huán)保,但它的碳排放量還是比傳統(tǒng)汽油車(chē)低得多。

廷斯利表示:“插電式混動(dòng)車(chē)的碳排放量只相當(dāng)于汽油車(chē)的30%。條條大路通羅馬,插電式混動(dòng)也是一個(gè)不壞的選擇,特別是如果這條技術(shù)路線被大規(guī)模采用的話?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

A new Bank of America Institute report didn’t just lower projections for electric vehicle sales through 2030, it used internal auto-loan originations data to tell us why. Writing that EVs represent one area of the auto market that “still appears relatively soft,” BofA found three main reasons why shoppers are shying away from the next generation of driving. But it also identified a generational shift in consumption—and baby boomers and “traditionalists” are leading the exodus away from EVs.

The bank’s analysts, led by Bank of America Institute senior economist David Michael Tinsley, found that after a post-pandemic EV craze that saw sales triple from 2021 to 2023, demand cooled off in the second half of last year. There are three main causes, they wrote: “a lack of affordability, limited choice, and ‘range anxiety,’” or the worry that people will be stranded, as infamously happened in Chicago this January, when consumers couldn’t charge their Teslas in negative 9-degree weather.

The data plainly shows that older Americans led the EV flight: demand from Americans born before 1965, which was already lower than for younger consumers, began to decrease last fall—and the trend doesn’t show signs of reversing anytime soon.

“Younger generations are probably more committed to a kind of green agenda of decarbonizing their vehicles,” Tinsley said in an interview with Fortune. “And older generations and Gen X, probably, will do it if the vehicles are there, and they’re cheap enough.”

The EV sector is suffering as domestic manufacturers tighten their belts after two boom years of massive spending to get new EVs to market. Fully electric cars have proved far less popular than expected, and domestic automakers can’t compete on price with sub-$15,000 Chinese models, which could hit American roads soon.

The report pointed to that affordability problem as a key obstacle for would-be American buyers: Only 20 EV models sold in the U.S. start at less than $45,000, and domestic automakers have missed out on sales by focusing on producing high-end cars at the expense of more accessible mass-market EVs.

Tax incentives have been a crucial boost for the EV industry; the Inflation Reduction Act offered a tax break of up to $7,500 for new buyers. But the report pointed out that an uncertain regulatory landscape and the results of this year’s election might leave some consumers questioning if it’s worth betting on the government continuing to support EVs. (The government just rolled back the tax incentive for dozens of models.) And a slew of bad press hasn’t helped make the case for buying a new EV instead of a cheaper, gas-powered car.

“[EVs have] taken a bit of a bad rap of late—about cost, and reports of them breaking down or not charging. To my mind, those stories probably impact older generations more than younger generations,” said Tinsley.

While the EV market suffers, Bank of America pointed out that plug-in hybrids are helping to fill the gap: the market share of these semi-electric cars has been steadily rising for the past year and a half, and while they aren’t as efficient as EVs, hybrids still produce far fewer emissions that conventional gas-powered cars.

“The carbon [emissions] from a plug-in hybrid versus a gasoline car is, like, 30 percent,” said Tinsley. “So, you know, there are different ways to skin the cat. And plug-in hybrids aren’t a bad way, particularly if you can get mass adoption of those.”

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