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紅海航運(yùn)的混亂可能會(huì)讓你的下一套時(shí)尚服裝過時(shí)幾周

SUNNY NAGPAUL
2024-02-06

快時(shí)尚變得不那么快了。

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快時(shí)尚變得不那么快了。圖片來源:GETTY IMAGES

紅海的航運(yùn)延誤至今已達(dá)兩周,全球航運(yùn)公司仍在繼續(xù)避開紅海這片不穩(wěn)定水域,多家快時(shí)尚公司面臨著航運(yùn)貨物延誤,用“時(shí)髦的延遲”來形容這個(gè)局面可能太過輕松。

包括拉爾夫·勞倫(Ralph Lauren)、露露檸檬(Lululemon)、H&M和Zara在內(nèi)的大量服裝公司可能面臨長達(dá)數(shù)周的延誤,原因是也門胡塞武裝(Houthi) 襲擊過往船只,這個(gè)名為“獨(dú)立人民運(yùn)動(dòng)”(Ansarullah)的組織意在阻止運(yùn)往以色列的軍事貨物。大小船只不得不轉(zhuǎn)而改道非洲南端,延長的航路使原本追求快速上新、按風(fēng)尚發(fā)貨的服裝公司面臨著航運(yùn)和燃料成本上漲的晦暗前景。零售商看到的是大幅上漲的價(jià)格,而消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)感受到過時(shí)的時(shí)裝帶來的壓力。

對(duì)那些依賴于快速發(fā)貨的服裝零售商來說,事情很麻煩

據(jù)路透社報(bào)道,繞道南非好望角的航線可能要多花幾周時(shí)間,每次往返造成的額外燃油費(fèi)用高達(dá)100萬美元。

許多公司,尤其是那些銷售依賴于快時(shí)尚趨勢(shì)和快速配送的公司,將發(fā)現(xiàn)自己被迫在兩個(gè)選項(xiàng)中做出抉擇:要么通過昂貴的方式(如航空貨運(yùn))加快貨物運(yùn)送速度,從而按時(shí)配送流行服飾;要么接受延遲發(fā)貨這個(gè)不可控因素。

標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾全球市場(chǎng)情報(bào)公司(S&P Global Market Intelligence)供應(yīng)鏈研究主管克里斯·羅杰斯(Chris Rogers)解釋說,如果海運(yùn)航線在未來幾周仍不能恢復(fù)正常,“我們預(yù)計(jì)這種情況很可能發(fā)生,那么季節(jié)性交付將需要比正常情況提前兩周發(fā)貨”,才能跟上企業(yè)的設(shè)計(jì)和銷售模式。他警告說,“對(duì)那些從設(shè)計(jì)到銷售需要8到10周周轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)間的企業(yè)來說,這可能是災(zāi)難性的?!彼f:“許多人將需要考慮空運(yùn)等替代運(yùn)輸路線?!?/p>

一些品牌已經(jīng)宣布貨運(yùn)延遲,比如宜家(IKEA)在給《財(cái)富》雜志的一份聲明中寫道,該公司沒有自己的船只,其合作伙伴已決定繞道非洲南端?!凹t海的情況將導(dǎo)致延誤,”該公司表示,“我們正在與航運(yùn)合作伙伴密切對(duì)話,確保宜家價(jià)值鏈上的工作人員的安全?!北M管如此,該公司稱:“預(yù)計(jì)目前不會(huì)出現(xiàn)任何斷貨問題?!?/p>

據(jù)彭博社(Bloomberg)報(bào)道,服裝品牌Abercrombie & Fitch上個(gè)月底宣布,為了避免嚴(yán)重的發(fā)貨延誤,正在考慮使用空運(yùn)。空運(yùn)的成本是海運(yùn)的16倍。該公司的一位發(fā)言人在給《財(cái)富》雜志的一份聲明中寫道,航運(yùn)中斷提醒了公司,全球航運(yùn)業(yè)的聯(lián)系有多么緊密,他們“在保證貨物流通的情況下,會(huì)改變運(yùn)輸方式和航線”。該公司還表示,“期待紅海地區(qū)盡快恢復(fù)穩(wěn)定?!?/p>

H&M的一位發(fā)言人告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,該品牌“預(yù)計(jì)供應(yīng)鏈不會(huì)出現(xiàn)任何重大中斷”,但會(huì)繼續(xù)“密切關(guān)注形勢(shì)”。

范斯(Vans)、北面(the North Face)、Timberland和Dickies等品牌的母公司VF公司和阿迪達(dá)斯(Adidas)拒絕了《財(cái)富》雜志的評(píng)論請(qǐng)求。

沒那么快時(shí)尚

南亞是美國快時(shí)尚經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要樞紐,那些把生產(chǎn)基地設(shè)在南亞的零售商 將“首當(dāng)其沖”地遭受運(yùn)輸延誤和運(yùn)費(fèi)上漲帶來的影響,美國全國零售聯(lián)合會(huì)(National Retail Federation)負(fù)責(zé)供應(yīng)鏈和海關(guān)政策的副總裁喬納森·戈?duì)柕?Jonathan Gold)表示。2022年,美國約有45%的服裝是從亞洲進(jìn)口的。

根據(jù)Statista的一份報(bào)告,巨大的東南亞服裝市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)今年將產(chǎn)生超過500億美元的營收。最賺錢的品類是女裝,預(yù)計(jì)今年將貢獻(xiàn)近一半的市場(chǎng)營收,該地區(qū)93%的服裝銷售是非奢侈品。據(jù)專門研究南亞問題的顧問維諾德·西南迪(Vinod Sinandi)說,該市場(chǎng)涉及的國家包括印度、中國、孟加拉國、巴基斯坦和斯里蘭卡。

據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(Wall Street Journal)報(bào)道,H&M和Zara的母公司Inditex約60%的銷售額來自歐洲市場(chǎng),而更依賴亞洲市場(chǎng)的H&M可能會(huì)面臨更多與運(yùn)輸相關(guān)的問題。

供應(yīng)鏈專家為何如此擔(dān)憂

美國全國零售聯(lián)合會(huì)的戈?duì)柕陆忉屨f,運(yùn)輸中斷已經(jīng)讓企業(yè)付出了代價(jià),而且代價(jià)可能還會(huì)更高。他說,巴拿馬運(yùn)河干旱等因素使航運(yùn)船只返航和重新裝貨的時(shí)間進(jìn)一步延長,導(dǎo)致承運(yùn)商和零售商的成本上升。

戈?duì)柕抡f:“開往蘇伊士運(yùn)河或紅海的船只改道,就意味著它們需要更長時(shí)間才能作為空船返回給托運(yùn)人。更長的航程意味著船只將不按‘輪換時(shí)間表’運(yùn)行,這增加了壓力,因?yàn)槌羞\(yùn)商無法可靠地預(yù)測(cè)什么時(shí)候船會(huì)空出來,什么時(shí)候可以重新裝貨?!?/p>

這些延誤也給美國西海岸等不經(jīng)常從事貨運(yùn)裝卸的市場(chǎng)帶來了壓力。除此之外,更高的航行和燃料成本意味著航運(yùn)公司正在與客戶商談?lì)~外收費(fèi)。這些特殊的緊急費(fèi)用可能會(huì)使零售商為每批貨物多花數(shù)百甚至至數(shù)千美元。

戈?duì)柕抡f,對(duì)于消費(fèi)端而言也很不利。零售商和承運(yùn)商之間的合同費(fèi)率通常在4月到5月之間到期,關(guān)于新合同條款和成本的討論正在進(jìn)行中。“零售商正在尋找解決方案,比如盡量提前發(fā)貨和使用空運(yùn),但這些都是有成本的,”他說,“影響正在顯現(xiàn)。企業(yè)試圖減輕這種影響,但情況并不確定?!?/p>

戈?duì)柕抡f,美國的服裝消費(fèi)者暫時(shí)還沒感受到價(jià)格的壓力,“零售商正在盡一切努力避免貨架空置和價(jià)格上漲?!彼硎?,消費(fèi)者可能仍然會(huì)面臨服裝價(jià)格上漲,“這取決于這種情況持續(xù)多久”。他還說,歐洲的時(shí)裝消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)更早感受到價(jià)格變化,因?yàn)樵撌袌?chǎng)更依賴于紅海貿(mào)易通道。

全球貿(mào)易中斷

每年約有12%的全球貿(mào)易經(jīng)由紅海航行。貨運(yùn)平臺(tái)Xeneta發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告顯示,來自亞洲的貨物占美國東海岸進(jìn)口總量的近20%,其中服裝約占58%。

據(jù)Xeneta的數(shù)據(jù),從東亞到北歐的運(yùn)費(fèi)自去年12月中旬以來飆升了235%,使一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的40英尺集裝箱的價(jià)格達(dá)到5,106美元。不過,根據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾全球市場(chǎng)情報(bào)公司本月早些時(shí)候的一份報(bào)告,上漲后的價(jià)格仍遠(yuǎn)低于疫情期間的最高運(yùn)輸價(jià)格,2021年9月,市場(chǎng)見證了每個(gè)集裝箱的運(yùn)費(fèi)高達(dá)1.8萬美元。

為超過10萬名客戶和130個(gè)國家提供航運(yùn)服務(wù)的國際航運(yùn)公司馬士基(Maersk)在12月中旬宣布,在發(fā)生“險(xiǎn)些相撞事件”和本周晚些時(shí)候的“另一艘集裝箱船遇襲”后,所有開往紅海的船只暫停出發(fā)。

本周早些時(shí)候,馬士基宣布,該地區(qū)發(fā)生的爆炸迫使其美國子公司運(yùn)營的兩艘載有軍用物資的船只掉頭返航。該公司還為彪馬(PUMA)、范斯(Vans)、Timberlands、Jansport等品牌承運(yùn)貨物。

馬士基高級(jí)新聞官雷納?霍恩(Rainer Horn)在給《財(cái)富》雜志的一封電子郵件中表示,該公司“提供你能想到的幾乎所有產(chǎn)品”。他說,來自亞洲的產(chǎn)品包括“大量的服裝、鞋子、運(yùn)動(dòng)鞋和體育用品”,而在歐洲和亞洲之間,“大量的機(jī)械、化學(xué)品,以及烈酒、葡萄酒和啤酒等西方生活用品”。

紅海危機(jī)從何而來

去年年底,伊朗支持的也門民兵組織胡塞武裝(Houthis)開始打擊開往以色列的船只,以回應(yīng)以色列對(duì)加沙的災(zāi)難性襲擊。專家稱,這是本世紀(jì)最致命的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)之一。自去年11月以來,該民兵組織在商業(yè)航道上發(fā)動(dòng)了30多次襲擊。目前沒有報(bào)告嚴(yán)重傷亡。

從那以后,美國和英國對(duì)胡塞武裝目標(biāo)進(jìn)行了空襲,包括也門首都薩那及其國際機(jī)場(chǎng)。據(jù)美聯(lián)社(Associated Press)報(bào)道,自1月12日以來,美國對(duì)也門進(jìn)行了八次轟炸,擊中了超過28個(gè)地點(diǎn)和60多個(gè)目標(biāo)。上個(gè)月,拜登政府宣布將胡塞武裝重新列為全球恐怖分子的計(jì)劃。也門的貧困率超過85%,而聯(lián)合國世界糧食計(jì)劃署(UN World Food Programme)在去年12月決定停止向也門北部分發(fā)糧食。人道主義專家擔(dān)心,也門獲得的其它一些重要援助也將被削減。

盡管如此,胡塞民兵堅(jiān)持繼續(xù)襲擊過往船只。據(jù)美聯(lián)社報(bào)道,該組織外交部成員Hussein al-Ezzi警告稱,“毫無疑問,美國和英國將必須準(zhǔn)備付出沉重的代價(jià),并承擔(dān)這種公然侵略的所有可怕后果?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:珠珠

紅海的航運(yùn)延誤至今已達(dá)兩周,全球航運(yùn)公司仍在繼續(xù)避開紅海這片不穩(wěn)定水域,多家快時(shí)尚公司面臨著航運(yùn)貨物延誤,用“時(shí)髦的延遲”來形容這個(gè)局面可能太過輕松。

包括拉爾夫·勞倫(Ralph Lauren)、露露檸檬(Lululemon)、H&M和Zara在內(nèi)的大量服裝公司可能面臨長達(dá)數(shù)周的延誤,原因是也門胡塞武裝(Houthi) 襲擊過往船只,這個(gè)名為“獨(dú)立人民運(yùn)動(dòng)”(Ansarullah)的組織意在阻止運(yùn)往以色列的軍事貨物。大小船只不得不轉(zhuǎn)而改道非洲南端,延長的航路使原本追求快速上新、按風(fēng)尚發(fā)貨的服裝公司面臨著航運(yùn)和燃料成本上漲的晦暗前景。零售商看到的是大幅上漲的價(jià)格,而消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)感受到過時(shí)的時(shí)裝帶來的壓力。

對(duì)那些依賴于快速發(fā)貨的服裝零售商來說,事情很麻煩

據(jù)路透社報(bào)道,繞道南非好望角的航線可能要多花幾周時(shí)間,每次往返造成的額外燃油費(fèi)用高達(dá)100萬美元。

許多公司,尤其是那些銷售依賴于快時(shí)尚趨勢(shì)和快速配送的公司,將發(fā)現(xiàn)自己被迫在兩個(gè)選項(xiàng)中做出抉擇:要么通過昂貴的方式(如航空貨運(yùn))加快貨物運(yùn)送速度,從而按時(shí)配送流行服飾;要么接受延遲發(fā)貨這個(gè)不可控因素。

標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾全球市場(chǎng)情報(bào)公司(S&P Global Market Intelligence)供應(yīng)鏈研究主管克里斯·羅杰斯(Chris Rogers)解釋說,如果海運(yùn)航線在未來幾周仍不能恢復(fù)正常,“我們預(yù)計(jì)這種情況很可能發(fā)生,那么季節(jié)性交付將需要比正常情況提前兩周發(fā)貨”,才能跟上企業(yè)的設(shè)計(jì)和銷售模式。他警告說,“對(duì)那些從設(shè)計(jì)到銷售需要8到10周周轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)間的企業(yè)來說,這可能是災(zāi)難性的。”他說:“許多人將需要考慮空運(yùn)等替代運(yùn)輸路線?!?/p>

一些品牌已經(jīng)宣布貨運(yùn)延遲,比如宜家(IKEA)在給《財(cái)富》雜志的一份聲明中寫道,該公司沒有自己的船只,其合作伙伴已決定繞道非洲南端?!凹t海的情況將導(dǎo)致延誤,”該公司表示,“我們正在與航運(yùn)合作伙伴密切對(duì)話,確保宜家價(jià)值鏈上的工作人員的安全?!北M管如此,該公司稱:“預(yù)計(jì)目前不會(huì)出現(xiàn)任何斷貨問題。”

據(jù)彭博社(Bloomberg)報(bào)道,服裝品牌Abercrombie & Fitch上個(gè)月底宣布,為了避免嚴(yán)重的發(fā)貨延誤,正在考慮使用空運(yùn)??者\(yùn)的成本是海運(yùn)的16倍。該公司的一位發(fā)言人在給《財(cái)富》雜志的一份聲明中寫道,航運(yùn)中斷提醒了公司,全球航運(yùn)業(yè)的聯(lián)系有多么緊密,他們“在保證貨物流通的情況下,會(huì)改變運(yùn)輸方式和航線”。該公司還表示,“期待紅海地區(qū)盡快恢復(fù)穩(wěn)定?!?/p>

H&M的一位發(fā)言人告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,該品牌“預(yù)計(jì)供應(yīng)鏈不會(huì)出現(xiàn)任何重大中斷”,但會(huì)繼續(xù)“密切關(guān)注形勢(shì)”。

范斯(Vans)、北面(the North Face)、Timberland和Dickies等品牌的母公司VF公司和阿迪達(dá)斯(Adidas)拒絕了《財(cái)富》雜志的評(píng)論請(qǐng)求。

沒那么快時(shí)尚

南亞是美國快時(shí)尚經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要樞紐,那些把生產(chǎn)基地設(shè)在南亞的零售商 將“首當(dāng)其沖”地遭受運(yùn)輸延誤和運(yùn)費(fèi)上漲帶來的影響,美國全國零售聯(lián)合會(huì)(National Retail Federation)負(fù)責(zé)供應(yīng)鏈和海關(guān)政策的副總裁喬納森·戈?duì)柕?Jonathan Gold)表示。2022年,美國約有45%的服裝是從亞洲進(jìn)口的。

根據(jù)Statista的一份報(bào)告,巨大的東南亞服裝市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)今年將產(chǎn)生超過500億美元的營收。最賺錢的品類是女裝,預(yù)計(jì)今年將貢獻(xiàn)近一半的市場(chǎng)營收,該地區(qū)93%的服裝銷售是非奢侈品。據(jù)專門研究南亞問題的顧問維諾德·西南迪(Vinod Sinandi)說,該市場(chǎng)涉及的國家包括印度、中國、孟加拉國、巴基斯坦和斯里蘭卡。

據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(Wall Street Journal)報(bào)道,H&M和Zara的母公司Inditex約60%的銷售額來自歐洲市場(chǎng),而更依賴亞洲市場(chǎng)的H&M可能會(huì)面臨更多與運(yùn)輸相關(guān)的問題。

供應(yīng)鏈專家為何如此擔(dān)憂

美國全國零售聯(lián)合會(huì)的戈?duì)柕陆忉屨f,運(yùn)輸中斷已經(jīng)讓企業(yè)付出了代價(jià),而且代價(jià)可能還會(huì)更高。他說,巴拿馬運(yùn)河干旱等因素使航運(yùn)船只返航和重新裝貨的時(shí)間進(jìn)一步延長,導(dǎo)致承運(yùn)商和零售商的成本上升。

戈?duì)柕抡f:“開往蘇伊士運(yùn)河或紅海的船只改道,就意味著它們需要更長時(shí)間才能作為空船返回給托運(yùn)人。更長的航程意味著船只將不按‘輪換時(shí)間表’運(yùn)行,這增加了壓力,因?yàn)槌羞\(yùn)商無法可靠地預(yù)測(cè)什么時(shí)候船會(huì)空出來,什么時(shí)候可以重新裝貨?!?/p>

這些延誤也給美國西海岸等不經(jīng)常從事貨運(yùn)裝卸的市場(chǎng)帶來了壓力。除此之外,更高的航行和燃料成本意味著航運(yùn)公司正在與客戶商談?lì)~外收費(fèi)。這些特殊的緊急費(fèi)用可能會(huì)使零售商為每批貨物多花數(shù)百甚至至數(shù)千美元。

戈?duì)柕抡f,對(duì)于消費(fèi)端而言也很不利。零售商和承運(yùn)商之間的合同費(fèi)率通常在4月到5月之間到期,關(guān)于新合同條款和成本的討論正在進(jìn)行中。“零售商正在尋找解決方案,比如盡量提前發(fā)貨和使用空運(yùn),但這些都是有成本的,”他說,“影響正在顯現(xiàn)。企業(yè)試圖減輕這種影響,但情況并不確定?!?/p>

戈?duì)柕抡f,美國的服裝消費(fèi)者暫時(shí)還沒感受到價(jià)格的壓力,“零售商正在盡一切努力避免貨架空置和價(jià)格上漲。”他表示,消費(fèi)者可能仍然會(huì)面臨服裝價(jià)格上漲,“這取決于這種情況持續(xù)多久”。他還說,歐洲的時(shí)裝消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)更早感受到價(jià)格變化,因?yàn)樵撌袌?chǎng)更依賴于紅海貿(mào)易通道。

全球貿(mào)易中斷

每年約有12%的全球貿(mào)易經(jīng)由紅海航行。貨運(yùn)平臺(tái)Xeneta發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告顯示,來自亞洲的貨物占美國東海岸進(jìn)口總量的近20%,其中服裝約占58%。

據(jù)Xeneta的數(shù)據(jù),從東亞到北歐的運(yùn)費(fèi)自去年12月中旬以來飆升了235%,使一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的40英尺集裝箱的價(jià)格達(dá)到5,106美元。不過,根據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾全球市場(chǎng)情報(bào)公司本月早些時(shí)候的一份報(bào)告,上漲后的價(jià)格仍遠(yuǎn)低于疫情期間的最高運(yùn)輸價(jià)格,2021年9月,市場(chǎng)見證了每個(gè)集裝箱的運(yùn)費(fèi)高達(dá)1.8萬美元。

為超過10萬名客戶和130個(gè)國家提供航運(yùn)服務(wù)的國際航運(yùn)公司馬士基(Maersk)在12月中旬宣布,在發(fā)生“險(xiǎn)些相撞事件”和本周晚些時(shí)候的“另一艘集裝箱船遇襲”后,所有開往紅海的船只暫停出發(fā)。

本周早些時(shí)候,馬士基宣布,該地區(qū)發(fā)生的爆炸迫使其美國子公司運(yùn)營的兩艘載有軍用物資的船只掉頭返航。該公司還為彪馬(PUMA)、范斯(Vans)、Timberlands、Jansport等品牌承運(yùn)貨物。

馬士基高級(jí)新聞官雷納?霍恩(Rainer Horn)在給《財(cái)富》雜志的一封電子郵件中表示,該公司“提供你能想到的幾乎所有產(chǎn)品”。他說,來自亞洲的產(chǎn)品包括“大量的服裝、鞋子、運(yùn)動(dòng)鞋和體育用品”,而在歐洲和亞洲之間,“大量的機(jī)械、化學(xué)品,以及烈酒、葡萄酒和啤酒等西方生活用品”。

紅海危機(jī)從何而來

去年年底,伊朗支持的也門民兵組織胡塞武裝(Houthis)開始打擊開往以色列的船只,以回應(yīng)以色列對(duì)加沙的災(zāi)難性襲擊。專家稱,這是本世紀(jì)最致命的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)之一。自去年11月以來,該民兵組織在商業(yè)航道上發(fā)動(dòng)了30多次襲擊。目前沒有報(bào)告嚴(yán)重傷亡。

從那以后,美國和英國對(duì)胡塞武裝目標(biāo)進(jìn)行了空襲,包括也門首都薩那及其國際機(jī)場(chǎng)。據(jù)美聯(lián)社(Associated Press)報(bào)道,自1月12日以來,美國對(duì)也門進(jìn)行了八次轟炸,擊中了超過28個(gè)地點(diǎn)和60多個(gè)目標(biāo)。上個(gè)月,拜登政府宣布將胡塞武裝重新列為全球恐怖分子的計(jì)劃。也門的貧困率超過85%,而聯(lián)合國世界糧食計(jì)劃署(UN World Food Programme)在去年12月決定停止向也門北部分發(fā)糧食。人道主義專家擔(dān)心,也門獲得的其它一些重要援助也將被削減。

盡管如此,胡塞民兵堅(jiān)持繼續(xù)襲擊過往船只。據(jù)美聯(lián)社報(bào)道,該組織外交部成員Hussein al-Ezzi警告稱,“毫無疑問,美國和英國將必須準(zhǔn)備付出沉重的代價(jià),并承擔(dān)這種公然侵略的所有可怕后果?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:珠珠

With delays of up to two weeks, “fashionably late” might be too generous to describe the shipping delays that several fast fashion companies now face as global shipping companies continue to avoid the shaky waters of the Red Sea.

Loads of apparel companies including Ralph Lauren, Lululemon, H&M and Zara could face weeks long delays due to attacks on shipping vessels from Yemen’s Houthi group, called Ansarullah, which seeks to deter military shipments bound for Israel. Companies that depend on quick, on-trend deliveries now face a stormy horizon clouded with higher shipping and fuel costs as vessels reroute on lengthy trips around Africa’s southern tip. Retailers face hefty price increases while customers may feel the strain in clothes that arrive out of fashion.

Trouble for retailers who depend on quickly delivered, trendy clothes

Rerouting around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope can take weeks longer and cost up to $1 million extra in fuel costs for each round trip, Reuters reported.

Many companies, especially those whose sales depend on fast fashion trends and speedy deliveries, will find themselves forced to choose between delivering trends on time by expediting their packages through expensive routes, like air freight, or accepting delayed shipments as an uncontrollable factor.

Chris Rogers, the head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, explained that if the disruptions last beyond the next few weeks, “which we expect they will, then seasonal deliveries will need to depart two weeks earlier than normal,” to keep up with companies’ design and sales models. He warns that this “could be disastrous for businesses that rely on an eight-to-10-week turnaround time from design to sale.” Many will “need to consider alternative transportation routes like air freight,” he said.

Several brands have already announced shipping delays, like IKEA, which wrote in a statement to Fortune that the company does not own its own shipping vessels and that its partners have decided to re-route vessels around Africa. “The situation in the Red Sea will result in delays,” the company wrote, and added that it is “in close dialogue with our shipping partners to ensure the safety of people working in the IKEA value chain.” Despite the situation, the company said it doesn’t “expect any availability constraints for the time being.”

Apparel brand Abercrombie & Fitch announced late last month that it is considering using air freight, which can cost up to 16 times more than cargo ships, to avoid significantly delayed shipments, according to Bloomberg. A company spokesperson wrote in a statement to Fortune that the shipping disruptions have reminded the company of how interconnected the global shipping industry is, and that they “shift transportation modes and shipping lanes when warranted to maintain the flow of goods.” The company also stated that it “l(fā)ooks forward to stability returning as quickly as possible in the Red Sea.”

An H&M spokesperson told Fortune that the brand doesn’t “foresee any significant disruptions” in its supply chain but it continues “following the situation closely.”

VF Corporation, the parent company of brands Vans, The North Face, Timberland and Dickies, and Adidas declined Fortune’s request for comment.

Not-so-fast fashion

South Asia is a major hub of the U.S fast-fashion economy, and retailers that manufacture there will be “impacted the most” by delays and higher shipping prices according to Jonathan Gold, the vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation. In 2022, about 45% of American apparel imports came from Asia.

According to a Statista report, the huge Southeast Asia market for apparel is projected to generate over $50 billion this year. The most profitable section is for women’s apparel, which is expected to generate almost half of the market’s revenue this year, and 93% of apparel sales from the region are non-luxury items. Some of the countries that make up this sector include India, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, according to Vinod Sinandi, a consultant who specializes in South Asia.

Inditex, the owner of H&M and Zara, relies on shipments to Europe for about 60% of its sales, and H&M, which depends more on Asian markets, may face more shipping related problems, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Why supply chain experts are concerned

The NRF’s Gold explained that the disruptions are already costing companies money, and could get even pricier. Factors like drought in the Panama Canal are compounding the already extended times for shipping vessels to return and be reloaded, contributing to higher costs for shippers and retailers, he said.

“When vessels that were destined for the Suez Canal or the Red Sea are re-routed, they’re now taking longer to return to shippers as empty vessels,” Gold said. The longer trips mean the vessels are “off their rotation schedules,” which adds pressure as shippers can’t reliably expect when they’ll be empty and free to reload again.

The delays also put pressure on other markets that aren’t used to receiving shipments, like the U.S. west coast. Beyond that, the higher costs of travel and fuel mean that shipping companies are negotiating additional charges for their customers. These special emergency charges could cost retailers between hundreds and thousands of dollars per shipment.

Timing is also not on shoppers’ side, Gold said. Contract rates between retailers and shippers typically expire between April and May, and discussions on what terms–and costs–should be in the new ones are underway. “Retailers are looking for solutions like trying to ship earlier and using air freight, but they all come at a cost,” he said. “This is having an impact. Companies are trying to mitigate it but it’s uncertain.”

U.S. customers who are buying clothes have yet to feel the price pinch, Gold said, and added that “retailers are doing everything they can to avoid empty shelves and price increases.” Customers might still face pricier clothes “dependent on how long the situation continues,” he said, adding that European fashion consumers could feel more of a price increase as that market is more dependent on the Red Sea trade lane.

The disruption in global trade

About 12% of global trade sails on the Red Sea each year. According to a report released by freight platform Xeneta, shipments from Asia account for almost 20% of all imports to the eastern coast of the U.S., and apparel comprises about 58% of those shipments.

Shipping rates from East Asia to North Europe have surged 235% since the middle of December, pricing a standard, 40-foot shipping container at $5,106, according to Xeneta. Still, according to a report by S&P Global Market Intelligence earlier this month, the elevated price is still well below the peak shipping price of the pandemic, which hit $18,000 per shipping container in September 2021.

International shipping company Maersk, which provides shipping for more than 100,000 customers and 130 countries, announced in mid-December that it would pause all vessels bound for the Red Sea following a “near-miss incident,” and “another attack on a container vessel,” later that week.

Earlier this week, Maersk announced that explosions in the area forced two ships, operated by the company’s U.S. subsidiary and carrying military supplies, to turn around. The company also ships for brands like PUMA, Vans, Timberlands, Jansport and more.

Rainer Horn, a senior press officer at Maersk, wrote to Fortune in an email that the company ships “virtually everything that you can think of.” From Asia, he said, products include “a lot of clothes, shoes, sneakers and sports goods,” and between Europe and Asia, “a lot of machinery, chemicals, western lifestyle articles like spirits, wine and beer.”

How the Red Sea crisis started

At the end of last year, the Houthis, an Iranian-backed militia in Yemen, began striking ships bound for Israel in response to the state’s catastrophic assault on Gaza, which experts say is one of the deadliest wars of this century. The militia has launched more than 30 attacks in commercial shipping lanes since November. No serious injuries have been reported.

Since then, the U.S. and United Kingdom have carried out airstrikes on Houthi targets, including the country’s capital city of Sana’a and the city’s international airport. Since Jan.12, the U.S. has bombed Yemen eight times, hitting more than 28 locations and over 60 targets, according to the Associated Press. Last month, the Biden administration announced plans to redesignate the Houthi militia as global terrorists, which humanitarian experts fear will cut more vital aid to Yemenis, where the poverty rate is over 85%, after the UN World Food Programme decided to pause food distribution to northern Yemen in December.

Despite it all, the Houthi militia insists that assaults on shipping vessels will continue. Hussein al-Ezzi, a member of the group’s foreign ministry, warned that “America and Britain will undoubtedly have to prepare to pay a heavy price and bear all the dire consequences of this blatant aggression,” according to AP News.

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