人工智能革命已經(jīng)造就了數(shù)十家獨角獸企業(yè),這些初創(chuàng)公司在上市前就已達到10億美元的估值。如今,這項技術創(chuàng)造出一種全新的創(chuàng)業(yè)類型:單人獨角獸公司。
這一觀點得到了OpenAI首席執(zhí)行官山姆·奧特曼(Sam Altman)的贊同。在接受Reddit聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人亞歷克西斯·奧哈尼安(Alexis Ohanian)采訪時,奧特曼表示,他經(jīng)常猜測第一位創(chuàng)始人何時能在不雇傭任何員工的情況下達到10億美元的估值。
奧特曼對奧哈尼安說:“在我和科技行業(yè)首席執(zhí)行官的小群群聊中,我們曾打賭說,今年就會出現(xiàn)一家市值10億美元的個人公司。如果沒有人工智能的助力,這簡直是天方夜譚,但現(xiàn)在它正逐步變成現(xiàn)實?!?/p>
奧哈尼安也對這一可能發(fā)生的事件感到興奮不已?!斑@是一個激進的想法?!彼谌ツ?月份的一次會議上接受采訪時對奧特曼說。
單人獨角獸公司將顛覆傳統(tǒng)觀念,即企業(yè)需要雇傭大量員工來實現(xiàn)增長。他表示:“未來將出現(xiàn)一種新現(xiàn)象,首席執(zhí)行官和創(chuàng)始人將興致勃勃地起床,并與規(guī)模更小、表現(xiàn)更出色、文化實力更雄厚的創(chuàng)業(yè)團隊共事。”
對于許多人來說,這已然是一個趨勢,只是時間早晚的問題。風險投資公司NFX的合伙人詹姆斯·柯里爾(James Currier)坦言:“我不知道還有多少人會對這一觀點持懷疑態(tài)度。”
在科技獨角獸紛紛遭遇困境的當下,單人獨角獸公司的概念應運而生。許多“獨角獸”已經(jīng)倒閉,創(chuàng)始人、員工和投資者都陷入困境。前初創(chuàng)公司員工發(fā)現(xiàn)自己失業(yè)了,而投資者遭受了巨大損失。
在這樣的背景下,單人獨角獸公司的前景將代表著科技行業(yè)所推崇的創(chuàng)業(yè)精神的巔峰。一個人憑借技術打造出一家估值超過10億美元的公司,這將是硅谷創(chuàng)業(yè)神話的巔峰。硅谷的歷史正是建立在這個神話之上,或者說人們一直認為它就是如此。從20世紀30年代斯坦福大學(Stanford)校友戴維·帕卡德和比爾·休利特在著名的惠普車庫制造了他們的第一款產(chǎn)品,使車庫成為民間傳說;到個人計算機時代初期,史蒂夫·喬布斯和比爾·蓋茨之間臭名昭著的競爭;再到谷歌(Google)的謝爾蓋·布林和拉里·佩奇或臉書(Facebook)的馬克·扎克伯格等人編寫出統(tǒng)治互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時代的算法,科技行業(yè)一直理想化地認為,有遠見的創(chuàng)始人能夠通過純粹的意志力推動技術與社會實現(xiàn)巨大飛躍。
人工智能使單人獨角獸公司成為這一趨勢的合乎邏輯的演變,并在硅谷掀起了熱潮。Javelin Venture Partners亞歷山大·古列維奇表示:“我們正在進入初創(chuàng)企業(yè)的新‘黃金時代’?!?/p>
“技術在等著我們”
長期以來,初創(chuàng)企業(yè)一直以謀略而著稱,這樣就只會發(fā)現(xiàn)人工智能放大了這一特點,原因是人工智能可以將過去許多需要增加員工的流程自動化。古列維奇表示:“初創(chuàng)企業(yè)相對于老牌企業(yè)的內(nèi)在優(yōu)勢在于,它們行動迅速、實驗速度更快,能夠根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)做出決策,并在產(chǎn)品適應市場的過程中檢驗一系列不同的假設。生成式人工智能將這些內(nèi)在優(yōu)勢發(fā)揮得淋漓盡致。”
柯里爾表示,許多人工智能工具已經(jīng)到位,只是在等待合適的創(chuàng)始人。柯里爾說:“在這一點上,技術正在等著我們。因此,這項技術不需要變得更好,我們需要的是弄清楚如何使用它?!?/p>
已經(jīng)有很多人工智能初創(chuàng)公司專門為特定業(yè)務功能開發(fā)工具,從市場營銷到法律工作,再到編寫代碼。根據(jù)古列維奇的說法,所有這些工具都可以讓初創(chuàng)公司在極短的時間內(nèi)和極少量的人員的情況下進行迭代,產(chǎn)生成千上萬種不同的產(chǎn)品理念、市場營銷標語和成本方案。在去年7月份一篇題為《三人獨角獸初創(chuàng)企業(yè)》的博客文章中,柯里爾將由人工智能驅(qū)動的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)比作雜耍表演,表演者只需旋轉(zhuǎn)一次盤子,然后每隔一段時間給它們一個推動力,就能讓它們在手指上保持平衡。
網(wǎng)站設計初創(chuàng)公司Muse的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼首席產(chǎn)品官丹·蘇特拉表示,單人獨角獸公司的領軍人物極有可能是銷售出身。他認為,銷售是經(jīng)營一家依然需要人性化的企業(yè)不可或缺的一環(huán)。盡管他警告說,有些獨角獸公司可能會通過技術手段獲得這個頭銜,即雇傭不被視為員工的承包商來完成他們和人工智能都無法完成的設計和編碼工作。蘇特拉說:“如果有人以這種方式達到了單人獨角獸公司的門檻記錄,我會在旁邊打上星號,盡管這仍然令人印象深刻。將會有真正的獨角獸達到同樣的門檻。對我來說,那個男孩或女孩得到了獎勵?!?
然而,僅僅因為人工智能能夠完成某項任務,并不意味著創(chuàng)始人就一定會放手讓人工智能去完成這項任務。研究人工智能系統(tǒng)信任的紐約大學教授瓦桑特·達爾表示,大多數(shù)創(chuàng)始人不會把最關鍵的任務交給人工智能,原因是犯錯的風險可能異常巨大。達爾以分析冗長的法律文件為例,例如與大客戶簽訂合同或來自投資者的交易清單。在這些高風險的情況下,一旦出錯,對初創(chuàng)企業(yè)來說很可能是滅頂之災。
他問道:“問題是,人工智能是否更高效、風險更低?”
人工智能軟件將席卷全球
歷史上不乏員工極少而估值極高的初創(chuàng)公司案例。眾所周知,Instagram在2012年被臉書以10億美元收購時,僅有13名員工。而交友網(wǎng)站Plenty of Fish在2008年時僅靠創(chuàng)始人馬庫斯·弗里德一人之力就創(chuàng)造了1000萬美元的利潤,這在成長型初創(chuàng)企業(yè)中實屬罕見。即使是弗里德,這位出類拔萃的創(chuàng)業(yè)者,到2015年,其團隊也擴大到約75人,當時他將Plenty of Fish以5.75億美元的價格出售給了在線約會巨頭Match Group。
這些公司除了員工數(shù)量有限外,還有一個共同點:它們都是消費類軟件公司。古列維奇和柯里爾認為,開發(fā)這類產(chǎn)品的初創(chuàng)公司最有可能成為首批單人獨角獸公司。軟件產(chǎn)品可以在人工智能的輔助下一次性完成開發(fā),然后定期更新,就像柯里爾的雜耍表演類比一樣。一旦完成,之后的大部分工作將是吸引新用戶。
傳統(tǒng)公司,尤其是那些生產(chǎn)實物商品的公司,沒有這樣的優(yōu)勢??吕餇栒f:“以福特汽車公司(Ford Motor Company)為例,八棟不同的大樓,負責八個不同的職能:采購、制造、銷售、經(jīng)銷和營銷。有了這些(軟件)產(chǎn)品,就無需配備八大部門了,而取消了公司很多這樣的部門,就意味著無需招聘人員來管理這些部門了。然后,就可以讓人工智能來幫助你完成所有你需要完成的工作?!?/p>
企業(yè)軟件產(chǎn)品雖然類似,但很多步驟仍需要動手操作,因此不太適合實現(xiàn)單人獨角獸公司所需的自動化。古列維奇認為,購買軟件的公司可能希望獲得定期的客戶服務,并對網(wǎng)絡安全有更高的要求。
古列維奇表示,另一類很有可能成為單人獨角獸的公司是直接面向消費者的電子商務初創(chuàng)公司。他補充說,這樣的初創(chuàng)公司將利用人工智能來生成創(chuàng)意、進行廣告宣傳和市場調(diào)研。
具有諷刺意味的是,單人獨角獸公司本身不太可能是一家純粹的人工智能公司。古列維奇表示:“這家獨角獸公司不一定會自己開發(fā)生成式人工智能產(chǎn)品,但它會在利用該技術內(nèi)部優(yōu)勢方面達到世界級水平。”
創(chuàng)始人仍需具有遠見卓識
但是,僅僅因為曾經(jīng)的白日夢現(xiàn)在看起來是可能實現(xiàn)的,或者至少是可行的,并不意味著未來的初創(chuàng)公司不需要卓越的創(chuàng)始人。大多數(shù)獨角獸企業(yè)都離不開這樣一位靈魂人物??吕餇栒J為,三人獨角獸公司將由一位創(chuàng)始人領導,這位創(chuàng)始人與大多數(shù)成功的創(chuàng)始人一樣有著的遠見卓識,不斷推動其前行。
他在博客中寫道:“三人獨角獸公司的創(chuàng)始人需要具備靈光乍現(xiàn)的天賦,并且勇于將這些靈感付諸實踐。他們必須有能力洞察他人所忽視的機遇,同時擁有足夠的進取心和勇氣,排除萬難來采取行動?!?/p>
另外兩名成員將是“數(shù)字人”和“文字人”。他們必須擁有卓越的才能??吕餇枌懙溃骸耙蛟煲患胰霜毥谦F公司,需要三人都具備非常特殊的才能。很少有團隊具備完成這一任務所需的多方面技能。”
獨角獸公司Yext前產(chǎn)品副總裁蘇特拉認為,初創(chuàng)公司的三大核心要素是設計、銷售和工程。在過去,精通這些領域的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人是“三位一體”。然而現(xiàn)在,一個創(chuàng)始人便有可能集這三種技能于一身,并“通過人工智能的超級能力得到進一步提升”。
軟技能將繼續(xù)成為熱門追捧對象。蘇特拉說,人工智能程序無法完成與大客戶的銷售,也沒有足夠的品味為產(chǎn)品挑選合適的設計。
柯里爾對此表示贊同??吕餇栒f:“對于我們所關注的信息工作來說,硬技能的防御能力會隨著時間的推移而下降?!?/p>
柯里爾支持三人獨角獸,而非單人獨角獸的另一個主要原因是,這樣的公司擁有人工智能帶來的超強生產(chǎn)力。他說,這是人性使然,原因是人們需要陪伴。他說:“如果你只是一個人完成任務,你最終會感到非常孤獨。你最終無法享受你正在做的事情,從而做出錯誤的決定?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
The AI revolution has already minted dozens of unicorns—startups valued at $1 billion before going public. Now it could create a whole new type of startup: the one-person unicorn.
The idea even got a stamp of approval from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Speaking during an interview with Reddit cofounder Alexis Ohanian, Altman said he regularly speculates about when the first founder will reach a billion-dollar valuation without even hiring a single employee.
“In my little groupchat with my tech CEO friends there’s this betting pool for the first year that there is a one-person billion dollar company,” Altman told Ohanian. “Which would have been unimaginable without AI and now will happen.”
Ohanian, too, was excited about the possibility. “This is a radical idea,” he told Altman during their interview at a September conference.
A one-person unicorn would defy the conventional wisdom that a company needs to hire more employees in order to grow. “There’s going to be a new phenomenon where CEOs and founders are going to be so excited to get up and go to work with much smaller, much more performant, much more culturally strong teams,” Ohanian said.
For many, it’s a question of when, not if, it will happen. “I don’t know many people who don’t believe this,” says James Currier, a partner at venture capital firm NFX.
This novel idea comes at a time when tech unicorns are facing a reckoning. Many have gone belly up, and these “unicorpses” left founders, employees, and investors in the lurch. Former startup employees find themselves jobless, while investors take a bath.
Against that backdrop, the prospect of a one-person unicorn would represent the pinnacle of the entrepreneurial spirit the tech industry prizes. A one-man operation using technology to build a company valued at over a billion dollars would be the apex of the founder myth on which Silicon Valley was built, or believes it was. From the 1930s, when Stanford pals David Packard and Bill Hewlett built their first product in the famed HP garage, which gave garages a folkloric status; to the infamous rivalry between Steve Jobs and Bill Gates at the dawn of the personal computing era; to the likes of Google’s Sergey Brin and Larry Page or Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg who calculated the algorithms that ruled the internet age, the tech industry had always idealized the idea of visionary founders who forced great leaps of technology upon society through sheer force of will.
The idea of AI enabling a one-person unicorn is the logical evolution of this trend—and it’s picked up steam across Silicon Valley. “We are entering a new ‘golden age’ of start-ups,” says Alex Gurevich, a managing director at Javelin Venture Partners.
‘The technology is waiting for us’
Startups, which have long had a reputation for resourcefulness, would only find this trait magnified by AI, which could automate many of the processes that in the past would have necessitated more headcount. “A start-up’s inherent advantage over an incumbent is its ability to move quickly, experiment faster, perform data-driven decision making and test through a bunch of different hypotheses on their way to product market fit,” Gurevich says. “GenAI puts these inherent advantages on steroids.”
Currier says the tools are already available, they’re just waiting for the right founder. “At this point, the technology is waiting for us,” Currier says. “So the technology doesn’t need to get better, we need to figure out how to use it.”
There are already a variety of AI startups that specialize in creating tools for specific business functions ranging from marketing to legal work to writing code. All of which would allow a startup to iterate thousands of different product ideas, marketing taglines, and cost scenarios with a fraction of the time and personnel, according to Gurevich. In a July blog post titled the “The 3-Person Unicorn Startup,” Currier compared an AI-powered startup to a plate-spinning act where the performer need only spin the plates once and give them a push every once in a while to keep them balanced on their fingers.
Dan Sutera, cofounder and chief product officer at website design startup Muse, says the head of a one-person unicorn will likely be a salesperson—one part of running a business that still requires a human touch. Although he cautions that some one-person unicorns may get that title on a technicality, by hiring contractors who aren’t considered employees to do design and coding work that neither they nor the AI can do. “I’d put an asterisk next to someone who reached the one-man unicorn threshold record this way, though it is still very impressive,” Sutera says. “There will be someone who is a true one-man shop who hits the same threshold. To me, that guy or gal gets the prize.”
But just because AI can do a certain task, doesn’t mean founders will necessarily let AI do it. Most founders won’t turn over the most critical tasks to AI where the risk of making a mistake could be especially drastic, according to NYU professor Vasant Dhar who researches trust in AI systems. Dhar gives the example of analyzing a lengthy legal document—such as a contract with a major client or a deal sheet from an investor. In those high-stakes cases, an error could spell disaster for a startup.
“The question is, will the AI be more efficient and low risk?,” he asks.
AI-made software will eat the world
There is a history of very small startups achieving massive valuations. Instagram famously only had 13 employees when it sold to Facebook for $1 billion in 2012. In 2008, the dating website Plenty of Fish had only one employee, founder Markus Frind, while generating $10 million in profits—a rarity in and of itself for growth startups. Though even Frind, the bootstrapper par excellence, had about 75 employees by 2015 when he sold Plenty of Fish to online dating juggernaut Match Group for $575 million.
In addition to their limited staff, these companies also share something else in common: They are consumer software. Startups making those types of products are most likely to be the first one-person unicorns, say Gurevich and Currier. A software product can be built once—possibly with the help of an AI copilot—and then updated at regular intervals, like in Currier’s plate spinning analogy. Once it’s complete, most of the remaining work will be recruiting new users.
Traditional companies, especially those that make physical goods, don’t have that luxury. “If you’re a Ford Motor Company, you’ve got eight different buildings for eight different functions: procurement, manufacturing, sales, dealerships, marketing,” Currier says. “With these [software] products, you don’t. You eliminate a lot of those divisions of your company, so you don’t need people to run them. Then you have AI come in and help you with all the pieces that you do need to do.”
Enterprise software products, while similar, would require a more hands-on approach, making them less suited to the automation needed to become a one-person unicorn. The companies purchasing the software would likely expect regular customer service and have greater cybersecurity demands, according to Gurevich.
Another strong candidate to become the first one-person unicorn is a direct-to-consumer ecommerce startup, Gurevich says. Such a startup would use AI for idea generation, advertising, and market research, he adds.
Ironically, a one-person unicorn is unlikely to be an AI company itself. “This one-person unicorn will not necessarily be building a native GenAI product themselves, but they will be world class at leveraging GenAI internally to turbo charge the start-up advantage,” Gurevich says.
Founders still need to be visionaries
But just because what was once a pipe dream now seems possible, or at least plausible, it doesn’t mean these startups of the future won’t still require exceptional founders. Most unicorns do. Currier believes the three-person unicorn will be led by a founder who has the same visionary ideas that propel the most successful founders.
“Founders of the three-person unicorns will need to be prone to a stroke of genius, and unafraid of acting on these impulses,” he said in his blog post. “You need to be capable of seeing something others don’t, and aggressive, brave or disagreeable enough to take action.”
The other two members will be a “numbers person” and a “words person.” They’ll also need to be extremely talented. “To pull off a three person unicorn will require very special talent among the three people,” Currier wrote. “Few teams will have the multifaceted skills to pull it off.”
According to Sutera, former vice president of product at unicorn Yext, the three core elements of a startup are design, sales and engineering. In the past, having cofounders who specialized in each field was the “holy trinity.” But now, a single founder could have a combination of all three skills that would be “augmented by AI superpowers,” Sutera says.
The one thing that will continue to be a hot commodity are soft skills. An AI program can’t close a sale with a major client or have good enough taste to pick the right design for a product, Sutera says.
Currier agrees. “For the information work that we’re concerned with, the defensibility of hard skills declines over time,” Currier says.
There’s another major reason Currier stands by the idea of a three-person unicorn with AI-supercharged productivity instead of a one-person version. It’s down to human nature, he says—people need company. “If you just do it by yourself, you end up being really lonely,” he says. “You end up not enjoying what you’re doing, and you end up making bad decisions.”