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巴菲特稱股市越來越像“賭場”,年輕投資者需要牢記一個事實(shí)

Will Daniel
2024-02-28

巴菲特?fù)?dān)心交易游戲化正在導(dǎo)致市場上的投機(jī)者增多,在現(xiàn)代互聯(lián)時代,巴菲特?fù)?dān)心這會導(dǎo)致市場更快陷入“瘋狂”。

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2013年10月16日,美國華盛頓特區(qū),沃倫·巴菲特在《財(cái)富》最具影響力的商界女性峰會上發(fā)言。圖片來源:PAUL MORIGI—GETTY IMAGES FOR FORTUNE

伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的首席執(zhí)行官沃倫·巴菲特在今年2月24日通過年度致股東的信,對已故的摯友和左膀右臂查理·芒格,發(fā)表了一段感人的頌詞?!皧W馬哈先知”巴菲特稱贊芒格是伯克希爾-哈撒韋成功的“建筑師”,他贊美了這位“愛唱反調(diào)的討厭鬼”,討論了一些他最喜歡批判的話題,包括將現(xiàn)代股市比喻成賭場。

巴菲特寫道:“不管出于什么原因,現(xiàn)在的股市比我年輕時更像賭場?!彼a(bǔ)充道:“雖然股票市場比我們早年的規(guī)模更大,但今天活躍的市場參與者與我上學(xué)時相比,既沒有情緒更穩(wěn)定,也沒有受過更好的教育?!?/p>

巴菲特的警告之詞顯然回顧了芒格最愛說的話。芒格在超過75年的職業(yè)生涯中,曾經(jīng)表示有兩類人會在股票市場中購買股票,分別是投資者和投機(jī)者。投資者在購買資產(chǎn)時有規(guī)矩,非常努力,而且思維縝密,芒格總是喜歡這類人。但投機(jī)者只想賺快錢,不考慮他們所購買的股票的固有價值,芒格厭惡這類人。

他在2022年4月接受伯克希爾-哈撒韋的投資官托德·庫姆斯采訪時說:“他們喜歡賭博,但問題是這就像吸食海洛因一樣。有一部分人最開始的做法就很過火。這是一種令人上癮的做法。這非常瘋狂,會令人發(fā)瘋。如果沒有這種投機(jī),人類文明本應(yīng)變得更加美好?!?/p>

與芒格一樣,巴菲特?fù)?dān)心太多的現(xiàn)代投資者癡迷于投機(jī)性投資。太多的投資者尤其是年輕投資者不愿意仔細(xì)分析美國證券交易委員會(Securities and Exchange Commission)的公司申報(bào)文件,找到最適合投資的公司,而是熱衷于購買熱門股票,希望未來幾個月、幾天甚至幾個小時,會有人為它們支付更高的價格。對于市場中“類似于賭場的”投資行為的增多,巴菲特認(rèn)為罪魁禍?zhǔn)资鞘裁椿蛘呤钦l?交易民主化和游戲化顯然扮演了不光彩的角色。正如這位億萬富翁所說:“現(xiàn)在賭場進(jìn)入了許多人的家中,每天都在誘惑著居住者。”

變成股市“賭場”

巴菲特認(rèn)為,股票市場之所以變得越來越像“賭場”,部分原因是在線交易應(yīng)用程序的興起,讓買賣股票變得更容易或更有趣。美國證券交易委員會很高興看到股票交易變得更容易,但對于“有趣的”方面卻并不樂見。2021年,美國證券交易委員會對交易應(yīng)用程序游戲化發(fā)起調(diào)查后,該委員會的主席加里·根斯勒在一份聲明中說道:

“雖然這些新技術(shù)讓我們有更多投資途徑和產(chǎn)品選擇,但它們也引發(fā)了一些問題,那就是投資者在交易和獲得金融建議時能否得到恰當(dāng)保護(hù)……在許多情況下,這些功能可能鼓勵投資者更頻繁交易,投資不同產(chǎn)品,或者調(diào)整投資策略?!?/p>

與根斯勒一樣,巴菲特?fù)?dān)心交易游戲化正在導(dǎo)致市場上的投機(jī)者增多,在現(xiàn)代互聯(lián)時代,巴菲特?fù)?dān)心這會導(dǎo)致市場更快陷入“瘋狂”。

他警告稱:“通信速度和技術(shù)的進(jìn)步,使全球立即癱瘓成為可能,而且這種癱瘓的信號已經(jīng)發(fā)出很久了。這種即時的瘋狂不會經(jīng)常發(fā)生,但一定會發(fā)生?!?/p>

牢記這個關(guān)鍵的“金融生活的事實(shí)”,避免在股市中的賭博行為

對于將股票市場作為賭場的投機(jī)者,巴菲特有一條重要的建議:記住你的賭博行為真正讓哪些人獲利——證券經(jīng)紀(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)。

他寫道:“永遠(yuǎn)不要忘記金融生活中的一個事實(shí)。華爾街,按照它的象征意義,希望客戶賺錢,但真正讓華爾街的投資者們興奮的是狂熱的活動?!?/p>

現(xiàn)代證券經(jīng)紀(jì)公司經(jīng)常會利用交易應(yīng)用程序上花哨的新功能,誘導(dǎo)投資者選擇股票或復(fù)雜的衍生品。但它們這樣做并不是為了幫助普通散戶投資者,而是為了賺取交易手續(xù)費(fèi)。這意味著交易量越高,對證券經(jīng)紀(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)越有利,盡管這不見得對投資者有好處。

當(dāng)更多普通民眾對股市產(chǎn)生興趣時,巴菲特解釋稱:“任何一種可以被營銷的愚蠢的東西,都會被大力推銷,雖然并非所有人都會如此,但總是會有些人這樣做?!?/p>

伯克希爾-哈撒韋的首席執(zhí)行官指出,當(dāng)形勢“變得惡劣”時,如果投機(jī)者在市場崩盤時賠錢,他們就不應(yīng)該指望有人能夠伸出援手或者可以看到正義。

他寫道:“這時候政客會變得憤怒;最明目張膽的犯罪分子會逍遙法外,他們有錢,不會受到懲罰;而你隔壁的朋友會變得迷茫、貧困甚至有時候懷有報(bào)復(fù)心。他會知道金錢勝過道德?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的首席執(zhí)行官沃倫·巴菲特在今年2月24日通過年度致股東的信,對已故的摯友和左膀右臂查理·芒格,發(fā)表了一段感人的頌詞。“奧馬哈先知”巴菲特稱贊芒格是伯克希爾-哈撒韋成功的“建筑師”,他贊美了這位“愛唱反調(diào)的討厭鬼”,討論了一些他最喜歡批判的話題,包括將現(xiàn)代股市比喻成賭場。

巴菲特寫道:“不管出于什么原因,現(xiàn)在的股市比我年輕時更像賭場。”他補(bǔ)充道:“雖然股票市場比我們早年的規(guī)模更大,但今天活躍的市場參與者與我上學(xué)時相比,既沒有情緒更穩(wěn)定,也沒有受過更好的教育?!?/p>

巴菲特的警告之詞顯然回顧了芒格最愛說的話。芒格在超過75年的職業(yè)生涯中,曾經(jīng)表示有兩類人會在股票市場中購買股票,分別是投資者和投機(jī)者。投資者在購買資產(chǎn)時有規(guī)矩,非常努力,而且思維縝密,芒格總是喜歡這類人。但投機(jī)者只想賺快錢,不考慮他們所購買的股票的固有價值,芒格厭惡這類人。

他在2022年4月接受伯克希爾-哈撒韋的投資官托德·庫姆斯采訪時說:“他們喜歡賭博,但問題是這就像吸食海洛因一樣。有一部分人最開始的做法就很過火。這是一種令人上癮的做法。這非常瘋狂,會令人發(fā)瘋。如果沒有這種投機(jī),人類文明本應(yīng)變得更加美好?!?/p>

與芒格一樣,巴菲特?fù)?dān)心太多的現(xiàn)代投資者癡迷于投機(jī)性投資。太多的投資者尤其是年輕投資者不愿意仔細(xì)分析美國證券交易委員會(Securities and Exchange Commission)的公司申報(bào)文件,找到最適合投資的公司,而是熱衷于購買熱門股票,希望未來幾個月、幾天甚至幾個小時,會有人為它們支付更高的價格。對于市場中“類似于賭場的”投資行為的增多,巴菲特認(rèn)為罪魁禍?zhǔn)资鞘裁椿蛘呤钦l?交易民主化和游戲化顯然扮演了不光彩的角色。正如這位億萬富翁所說:“現(xiàn)在賭場進(jìn)入了許多人的家中,每天都在誘惑著居住者。”

變成股市“賭場”

巴菲特認(rèn)為,股票市場之所以變得越來越像“賭場”,部分原因是在線交易應(yīng)用程序的興起,讓買賣股票變得更容易或更有趣。美國證券交易委員會很高興看到股票交易變得更容易,但對于“有趣的”方面卻并不樂見。2021年,美國證券交易委員會對交易應(yīng)用程序游戲化發(fā)起調(diào)查后,該委員會的主席加里·根斯勒在一份聲明中說道:

“雖然這些新技術(shù)讓我們有更多投資途徑和產(chǎn)品選擇,但它們也引發(fā)了一些問題,那就是投資者在交易和獲得金融建議時能否得到恰當(dāng)保護(hù)……在許多情況下,這些功能可能鼓勵投資者更頻繁交易,投資不同產(chǎn)品,或者調(diào)整投資策略?!?/p>

與根斯勒一樣,巴菲特?fù)?dān)心交易游戲化正在導(dǎo)致市場上的投機(jī)者增多,在現(xiàn)代互聯(lián)時代,巴菲特?fù)?dān)心這會導(dǎo)致市場更快陷入“瘋狂”。

他警告稱:“通信速度和技術(shù)的進(jìn)步,使全球立即癱瘓成為可能,而且這種癱瘓的信號已經(jīng)發(fā)出很久了。這種即時的瘋狂不會經(jīng)常發(fā)生,但一定會發(fā)生?!?/p>

牢記這個關(guān)鍵的“金融生活的事實(shí)”,避免在股市中的賭博行為

對于將股票市場作為賭場的投機(jī)者,巴菲特有一條重要的建議:記住你的賭博行為真正讓哪些人獲利——證券經(jīng)紀(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)。

他寫道:“永遠(yuǎn)不要忘記金融生活中的一個事實(shí)。華爾街,按照它的象征意義,希望客戶賺錢,但真正讓華爾街的投資者們興奮的是狂熱的活動?!?/p>

現(xiàn)代證券經(jīng)紀(jì)公司經(jīng)常會利用交易應(yīng)用程序上花哨的新功能,誘導(dǎo)投資者選擇股票或復(fù)雜的衍生品。但它們這樣做并不是為了幫助普通散戶投資者,而是為了賺取交易手續(xù)費(fèi)。這意味著交易量越高,對證券經(jīng)紀(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)越有利,盡管這不見得對投資者有好處。

當(dāng)更多普通民眾對股市產(chǎn)生興趣時,巴菲特解釋稱:“任何一種可以被營銷的愚蠢的東西,都會被大力推銷,雖然并非所有人都會如此,但總是會有些人這樣做?!?/p>

伯克希爾-哈撒韋的首席執(zhí)行官指出,當(dāng)形勢“變得惡劣”時,如果投機(jī)者在市場崩盤時賠錢,他們就不應(yīng)該指望有人能夠伸出援手或者可以看到正義。

他寫道:“這時候政客會變得憤怒;最明目張膽的犯罪分子會逍遙法外,他們有錢,不會受到懲罰;而你隔壁的朋友會變得迷茫、貧困甚至有時候懷有報(bào)復(fù)心。他會知道金錢勝過道德?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett shared a moving tribute to his fallen friend and right-hand man Charlie Munger in his annual shareholder letter over the weekend. The Oracle of Omaha lauded Munger as the “architect” of Berkshire’s success, eulogizing the “abominable no-man” by discussing some of his favorite whipping posts—including his comparison of the modern stock market to a casino.

“For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young,” Buffett wrote, adding that “though the stock market is massively larger than it was in our early years, today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school.”

Buffett’s words of caution were definitely a throwback to some of Munger’s favorite lines. Throughout his more than 75-year career, Munger argued that there were two types of people who buy shares in the stock market: investors and speculators. The investors—who are, above all, disciplined, hard-working, and thoughtful when buying assets—were always Munger’s people. But the speculators—those who seek nothing more than a quick buck without care for the intrinsic value of what they’re buying—well, Munger really didn’t like them much.

“They love gambling, and the trouble is, it’s like taking heroin,” he said in an April 2022 interview with Berkshire Hathaway investment officer Todd Combs. “A certain percentage of people when they start just overdo it. It’s that addictive. It’s absolutely crazy, it’s gone berserk. Civilization would have been a lot better without it.”

Like Munger, Buffett fears that too many modern investors have become entranced by speculative investing. Rather than digging into Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings to find the best possible business to invest in, too many investors, particularly young investors, are simply buying stocks that are trendy, hoping someone else will pay more for them a few months, days, or even hours down the line. What or who does Buffett blame for this rise in “casino-like” behavior in the markets? Well, the democratization and gamification of trading is certainly not helping. As the billionaire put it: “The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants.”

Becoming a stock market “casino”

Part of the reason the stock market is becoming increasingly “casino-like,” according to Buffett, is simply that buying and selling stock has never been easier—or more fun—due to the rise of online trading applications. The SEC is happy about the first part of that sentence, but not so much the second. Here’s how SEC Chair Gary Gensler put it in a statement in 2021 after launching an investigation into the gamification of trading applications:

“While these new technologies can bring us greater access and product choice, they also raise questions as to whether we as investors are appropriately protected when we trade and get financial advice…In many cases, these features may encourage investors to trade more often, invest in different products, or change their investment strategy.”

Like Gensler, Buffett is worried that the gamification of trading is leading to an increase in speculators in the market, and in this modern era of connectivity, the Berkshire CEO worries that could lead market “panics” to happen more rapidly.

“Speed of communication and the wonders of technology facilitate instant worldwide paralysis, and we have come a long way since smoke signals,” he warned. “Such instant panics won’t happen often—but they will happen.”

Remember this key “fact of financial life”—and you’ll avoid gambling in the market

For the speculators that are using the stock market like a casino, Buffett had one main tip: Remember who is really making money from your gambling—the House.

“One fact of financial life should never be forgotten,” he wrote. “Wall Street – to use the term in its figurative sense – would like its customers to make money, but what truly causes its denizens’ juices to flow is feverish activity.”

Modern brokerage firms, at times, entice investors into stocks or complicated derivatives with new and fancy features on their trading apps. But they aren’t doing it to help the average retail investor, they’re doing it because they make money from fees on every trade. That means the more trades, the better it is for the House, even if that’s not true for investors.

During periods where more of the general public gets interested in stocks, Buffett explained, “whatever foolishness can be marketed will be vigorously marketed – not by everyone but always by someone.”

The Berkshire CEO noted that when the scene then “turns ugly,” and speculators lose money during a market meltdown, they shouldn’t expect a helping hand—or justice—either.

“The politicians then become enraged; the most flagrant perpetrators of misdeeds slip away, rich and unpunished; and your friend next door becomes bewildered, poorer and sometimes vengeful,” he wrote. “Money, he learns, has trumped morality.”

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