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嬰兒潮一代老去,未來(lái)十年將有900萬(wàn)套房屋進(jìn)入美國(guó)樓市

未來(lái)十年,隨著嬰兒潮一代人口減少和住房自有率下降,預(yù)計(jì)將有900多萬(wàn)套住房上市交易。

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美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)過(guò)疫情期間的暴漲之后,去年陷入低迷。房屋銷量降至2011年以來(lái)的最低水平,主要原因是現(xiàn)房銷售跌至近30年最低。待售房屋庫(kù)存不足。但嬰兒潮一代家庭可能給美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)一些希望:據(jù)房地美(Freddie Mac)預(yù)測(cè),未來(lái)十年,隨著嬰兒潮一代人口減少和住房自有率下降,預(yù)計(jì)將有900多萬(wàn)套住房上市交易。

至少在房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),嬰兒潮一代有舉足輕重的地位。大多數(shù)嬰兒潮一代可能擁有自己的住房,或者鎖定了低按揭利率,而且他們的資產(chǎn)普遍在升值。美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的缺口多達(dá)約200萬(wàn)至700萬(wàn)套,而嬰兒潮一代之所以不愿意出售房屋,是因?yàn)樵谶^(guò)去兩年按揭利率上漲了一倍以上。

房地美的報(bào)告稱:“有人警告隨著日漸老去的嬰兒潮一代出售房屋,將會(huì)發(fā)生‘銀發(fā)海嘯’,會(huì)有大量房屋庫(kù)存涌入市場(chǎng)。但正如分析所示,銀發(fā)海嘯更像是一波浪潮,它所帶來(lái)的嬰兒潮一代的逐步退出,極有可能被新進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)的人們抵消。”

換言之,即使未來(lái)十年嬰兒潮一代賣掉自己的房子,年輕人會(huì)繼續(xù)進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng) —— 據(jù)城市研究所(Urban Institute)預(yù)測(cè),未來(lái)十年將會(huì)誕生850萬(wàn)個(gè)新家庭,到2030年至2040年期間將會(huì)誕生760萬(wàn)個(gè),其中多數(shù)家庭將需要住房。房地美表示,因此“未來(lái)幾年的總住房需求可能會(huì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)?!?/p>

在2023年11月被彭博社評(píng)價(jià)為“華爾街先知”的梅雷迪思·惠特尼預(yù)測(cè),嬰兒潮一代的“銀發(fā)海嘯”將在2024年和2025年開(kāi)始減弱。惠特尼引用美國(guó)退休人員協(xié)會(huì)(AARP)在雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)投資會(huì)議(Yahoo Finance Invest Conference)上的報(bào)告表示,51%的50歲以上人口計(jì)劃換小一些的房子。她表示,這會(huì)使市場(chǎng)上的待售房屋增加3,000多萬(wàn)套,這個(gè)數(shù)字遠(yuǎn)高于房地美的預(yù)測(cè),而且增長(zhǎng)速度也超過(guò)了該抵押貸款公司的預(yù)測(cè)。惠特尼曾準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)了2008年的金融危機(jī)。她還表示,這個(gè)趨勢(shì)會(huì)導(dǎo)致“利率不可知”,這意味著她預(yù)測(cè)無(wú)論當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)利率是什么水平,供需關(guān)系變化都會(huì)發(fā)生,因?yàn)椤袄夏耆说陌唇依矢停踔翛](méi)有使用按揭”。

截至2022年,嬰兒潮一代的規(guī)模為6,900萬(wàn)人,擁有美國(guó)38%的自有住宅。他們顯然沒(méi)有讓千禧一代擁有住房變得更容易。但報(bào)告稱,如果按照前輩的模式,隨著嬰兒潮一代日漸衰老,尤其是70多歲以后,他們的房屋所有率將會(huì)下降。房地美預(yù)測(cè),隨著年齡較大的嬰兒潮一代接近90歲高齡,嬰兒潮家庭的數(shù)量將從2022年的約3,200萬(wàn)個(gè)逐步減少到2035年的2,300萬(wàn)個(gè)。報(bào)告稱:“按照這個(gè)估算,到2035年,嬰兒潮一代的有房家庭將減少920萬(wàn)個(gè)?!?/p>

房地美表示,這種逐步下降的趨勢(shì)在這個(gè)十年較為溫和,但在下一個(gè)十年將會(huì)加速,到時(shí)候大多數(shù)嬰兒潮一代將步入70和80歲的高齡。例如,房地美估計(jì),到2028年,只有270萬(wàn)套房屋將進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)出售。

房地美表示:“從這種意義上來(lái)說(shuō),銀發(fā)海嘯更像是一股浪潮,嬰兒潮一代家庭將會(huì)在未來(lái)數(shù)年內(nèi)逐步減少。雖然未來(lái)幾年因?yàn)槟挲g衰老不再擁有住房的人口將會(huì)增多,但它更像是一種向上爬坡的趨勢(shì),而不是一種破壞性的突然增多?!?/p>

但可能有一點(diǎn)需要警惕。隨著人口壽命延長(zhǎng)和老年人變得更健康,房屋保留率一直在不斷提高。據(jù)約翰·伯恩斯研究咨詢公司(John Burns Research and Consulting)統(tǒng)計(jì),嬰兒潮一代平均年齡為67歲,而且平均壽命仍有21年。報(bào)告稱,將這個(gè)事實(shí)考慮在內(nèi),如果使用最新的房屋保留率而不是歷史平均水平,那么減少的嬰兒潮家庭“會(huì)少接近一百萬(wàn)個(gè)”。

與惠特尼不同,其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,“銀發(fā)海嘯”根本不會(huì)構(gòu)成海嘯,這與房地美的推論一致。相反,《財(cái)富》世界500強(qiáng)金融服務(wù)公司第一美國(guó)金融公司(First American)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克·弗萊明此前曾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,嬰兒潮一代人口要在十年甚至更久之后,也就是直到他們到80歲左右時(shí),才會(huì)開(kāi)始減少。他將其稱為“衰老退出過(guò)程”。弗萊明認(rèn)為,嬰兒潮一代包括了從上世紀(jì)40年代中期到60年代中期出生的人,因此等他們準(zhǔn)備放棄當(dāng)前的住房狀況,仍有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。

他表示:“嬰兒潮一代將會(huì)更久住在家里。他們更富有,更健康。他們可以比先輩們更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間留在家中。大批嬰兒潮一代因?yàn)樗ダ贤顺鍪袌?chǎng)的周期確實(shí)會(huì)發(fā)生,但這尚未到來(lái)?!狈康孛乐芩陌l(fā)布的報(bào)告還表示,嬰兒潮一代愿意在家中養(yǎng)老。房地美的調(diào)查顯示,只有17%的老年業(yè)主表示在退休期間賣掉了或計(jì)劃賣掉自己的房子,這一方面是由于財(cái)務(wù)原因,另一方面則是對(duì)家的情感依賴。此外,有62%的受訪者表示其目標(biāo)是將房子留給后代。

無(wú)論銀發(fā)海嘯或浪潮的速度有多快,都不會(huì)徹底解決年輕人的房屋可負(fù)擔(dān)性問(wèn)題,因?yàn)榉績(jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)高到離譜的地步。雖然一些嬰兒潮一代可能搬到退休社區(qū),但有些人會(huì)選擇更小一點(diǎn)的房子,而年輕人恰好也想要這類住房。這可能讓千禧一代和更年輕的人們只能繼續(xù)觀望,可能進(jìn)一步推高房?jī)r(jià)。更不必說(shuō)嬰兒潮一代有更多現(xiàn)金,因此他們將在競(jìng)價(jià)中勝出。

房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)行商與咨詢公司Zonda的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿里·沃爾夫此前曾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“特定嬰兒潮一代與特定千禧一代之間有大量重疊。關(guān)鍵區(qū)別在于,嬰兒潮一代可以出售現(xiàn)有房屋獲得房屋凈值,讓他們?yōu)榉孔犹峁┑某鰞r(jià)比千禧一代更有吸引力,尤其是正在租房的千禧一代?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)過(guò)疫情期間的暴漲之后,去年陷入低迷。房屋銷量降至2011年以來(lái)的最低水平,主要原因是現(xiàn)房銷售跌至近30年最低。待售房屋庫(kù)存不足。但嬰兒潮一代家庭可能給美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)一些希望:據(jù)房地美(Freddie Mac)預(yù)測(cè),未來(lái)十年,隨著嬰兒潮一代人口減少和住房自有率下降,預(yù)計(jì)將有900多萬(wàn)套住房上市交易。

至少在房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),嬰兒潮一代有舉足輕重的地位。大多數(shù)嬰兒潮一代可能擁有自己的住房,或者鎖定了低按揭利率,而且他們的資產(chǎn)普遍在升值。美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的缺口多達(dá)約200萬(wàn)至700萬(wàn)套,而嬰兒潮一代之所以不愿意出售房屋,是因?yàn)樵谶^(guò)去兩年按揭利率上漲了一倍以上。

房地美的報(bào)告稱:“有人警告隨著日漸老去的嬰兒潮一代出售房屋,將會(huì)發(fā)生‘銀發(fā)海嘯’,會(huì)有大量房屋庫(kù)存涌入市場(chǎng)。但正如分析所示,銀發(fā)海嘯更像是一波浪潮,它所帶來(lái)的嬰兒潮一代的逐步退出,極有可能被新進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)的人們抵消?!?/p>

換言之,即使未來(lái)十年嬰兒潮一代賣掉自己的房子,年輕人會(huì)繼續(xù)進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng) —— 據(jù)城市研究所(Urban Institute)預(yù)測(cè),未來(lái)十年將會(huì)誕生850萬(wàn)個(gè)新家庭,到2030年至2040年期間將會(huì)誕生760萬(wàn)個(gè),其中多數(shù)家庭將需要住房。房地美表示,因此“未來(lái)幾年的總住房需求可能會(huì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)?!?/p>

在2023年11月被彭博社評(píng)價(jià)為“華爾街先知”的梅雷迪思·惠特尼預(yù)測(cè),嬰兒潮一代的“銀發(fā)海嘯”將在2024年和2025年開(kāi)始減弱?;萏啬嵋妹绹?guó)退休人員協(xié)會(huì)(AARP)在雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)投資會(huì)議(Yahoo Finance Invest Conference)上的報(bào)告表示,51%的50歲以上人口計(jì)劃換小一些的房子。她表示,這會(huì)使市場(chǎng)上的待售房屋增加3,000多萬(wàn)套,這個(gè)數(shù)字遠(yuǎn)高于房地美的預(yù)測(cè),而且增長(zhǎng)速度也超過(guò)了該抵押貸款公司的預(yù)測(cè)?;萏啬嵩鴾?zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)了2008年的金融危機(jī)。她還表示,這個(gè)趨勢(shì)會(huì)導(dǎo)致“利率不可知”,這意味著她預(yù)測(cè)無(wú)論當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)利率是什么水平,供需關(guān)系變化都會(huì)發(fā)生,因?yàn)椤袄夏耆说陌唇依矢?,甚至沒(méi)有使用按揭”。

截至2022年,嬰兒潮一代的規(guī)模為6,900萬(wàn)人,擁有美國(guó)38%的自有住宅。他們顯然沒(méi)有讓千禧一代擁有住房變得更容易。但報(bào)告稱,如果按照前輩的模式,隨著嬰兒潮一代日漸衰老,尤其是70多歲以后,他們的房屋所有率將會(huì)下降。房地美預(yù)測(cè),隨著年齡較大的嬰兒潮一代接近90歲高齡,嬰兒潮家庭的數(shù)量將從2022年的約3,200萬(wàn)個(gè)逐步減少到2035年的2,300萬(wàn)個(gè)。報(bào)告稱:“按照這個(gè)估算,到2035年,嬰兒潮一代的有房家庭將減少920萬(wàn)個(gè)?!?/p>

房地美表示,這種逐步下降的趨勢(shì)在這個(gè)十年較為溫和,但在下一個(gè)十年將會(huì)加速,到時(shí)候大多數(shù)嬰兒潮一代將步入70和80歲的高齡。例如,房地美估計(jì),到2028年,只有270萬(wàn)套房屋將進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)出售。

房地美表示:“從這種意義上來(lái)說(shuō),銀發(fā)海嘯更像是一股浪潮,嬰兒潮一代家庭將會(huì)在未來(lái)數(shù)年內(nèi)逐步減少。雖然未來(lái)幾年因?yàn)槟挲g衰老不再擁有住房的人口將會(huì)增多,但它更像是一種向上爬坡的趨勢(shì),而不是一種破壞性的突然增多。”

但可能有一點(diǎn)需要警惕。隨著人口壽命延長(zhǎng)和老年人變得更健康,房屋保留率一直在不斷提高。據(jù)約翰·伯恩斯研究咨詢公司(John Burns Research and Consulting)統(tǒng)計(jì),嬰兒潮一代平均年齡為67歲,而且平均壽命仍有21年。報(bào)告稱,將這個(gè)事實(shí)考慮在內(nèi),如果使用最新的房屋保留率而不是歷史平均水平,那么減少的嬰兒潮家庭“會(huì)少接近一百萬(wàn)個(gè)”。

與惠特尼不同,其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,“銀發(fā)海嘯”根本不會(huì)構(gòu)成海嘯,這與房地美的推論一致。相反,《財(cái)富》世界500強(qiáng)金融服務(wù)公司第一美國(guó)金融公司(First American)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克·弗萊明此前曾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,嬰兒潮一代人口要在十年甚至更久之后,也就是直到他們到80歲左右時(shí),才會(huì)開(kāi)始減少。他將其稱為“衰老退出過(guò)程”。弗萊明認(rèn)為,嬰兒潮一代包括了從上世紀(jì)40年代中期到60年代中期出生的人,因此等他們準(zhǔn)備放棄當(dāng)前的住房狀況,仍有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。

他表示:“嬰兒潮一代將會(huì)更久住在家里。他們更富有,更健康。他們可以比先輩們更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間留在家中。大批嬰兒潮一代因?yàn)樗ダ贤顺鍪袌?chǎng)的周期確實(shí)會(huì)發(fā)生,但這尚未到來(lái)。”房地美周四發(fā)布的報(bào)告還表示,嬰兒潮一代愿意在家中養(yǎng)老。房地美的調(diào)查顯示,只有17%的老年業(yè)主表示在退休期間賣掉了或計(jì)劃賣掉自己的房子,這一方面是由于財(cái)務(wù)原因,另一方面則是對(duì)家的情感依賴。此外,有62%的受訪者表示其目標(biāo)是將房子留給后代。

無(wú)論銀發(fā)海嘯或浪潮的速度有多快,都不會(huì)徹底解決年輕人的房屋可負(fù)擔(dān)性問(wèn)題,因?yàn)榉績(jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)高到離譜的地步。雖然一些嬰兒潮一代可能搬到退休社區(qū),但有些人會(huì)選擇更小一點(diǎn)的房子,而年輕人恰好也想要這類住房。這可能讓千禧一代和更年輕的人們只能繼續(xù)觀望,可能進(jìn)一步推高房?jī)r(jià)。更不必說(shuō)嬰兒潮一代有更多現(xiàn)金,因此他們將在競(jìng)價(jià)中勝出。

房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)行商與咨詢公司Zonda的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿里·沃爾夫此前曾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“特定嬰兒潮一代與特定千禧一代之間有大量重疊。關(guān)鍵區(qū)別在于,嬰兒潮一代可以出售現(xiàn)有房屋獲得房屋凈值,讓他們?yōu)榉孔犹峁┑某鰞r(jià)比千禧一代更有吸引力,尤其是正在租房的千禧一代?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

After a wild ride during the pandemic, the housing market froze over last year. Total home sales fell to their lowest level since 2011, mostly because existing home sales plummeted to a nearly 30-year low. There’s simply not enough for-sale inventory. But there’s some hope from baby-boomer households, with a wave of downsizing and declining homeownership rates expected to bring more than 9 million homes onto the market in the next decade, according to Freddie Mac.

Baby boomers are a big deal — in the housing market, at least. Most either own their homes outright or are locked into a low mortgage rate, and generally, their properties are appreciating. In a housing market missing roughly 2 to 7 million homes, boomers are holding onto theirs because mortgage rates more than doubled during the past couple of years.

“Some have warned of a ‘silver tsunami’ as aging boomers look to sell their homes, flooding the market with inventory,” Freddie Mac’s report reads. “But as this analysis demonstrates, the tsunami is more like a tide, bringing a gradual exit that will mostly be offset by new entrants.”

In other words, even as boomers vacate their homes in the coming decade, younger generations will continue to enter the housing market—the Urban Institute projects that 8.5 million new households will be created this decade, and 7.6 million between 2030 and 2040, most of which will need homes. So “total housing demand over the next few years is likely to continue to increase,” Freddie Mac said.

None other than Meredith Whitney, deemed the “Oracle of Wall Street” by Bloomberg in November 2023, predicted that a “silver tsunami” of baby boomers would start downsizing in 2024 and 2025. Whitney said 51% of people over the age of 50 are set to downsize to smaller homes, citing an AARP report at a Yahoo Finance Invest Conference. This move would bring more than 30 million housing units to the market, she said—a figure much higher than Freddie Mac’s and at a pace much faster than the mortgage corporation projects. Whitney, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, also said this trend will be “rate agnostic,” meaning she expects the supply-demand shift to happen no matter what current market rates are, because “older people have lower mortgage rates, if any mortgage at all.”

There were 69 million baby boomers, accounting for 38% of homeowner households, as of 2022. And they clearly haven’t made it easy for millennials to climb the homeownership ladder. But if boomers follow the patterns of previous generations, their homeownership rate will decline as they get older, particularly as they enter their late 70s, the report said. Freddie Mac predicted that the number of baby boomer households will fall gradually from around 32 million in 2022 to 23 million by 2035, as older boomers near their 90s. “Per this estimate, there will be 9.2 million fewer boomer homeowner households by 2035,” the report said.

That gradual decline is much more modest in this decade before it accelerates in the next, at which point the majority of boomers will be in their 70s and 80s, Freddie Mac says. For instance, by 2028, Freddie Mac estimates there will only be 2.7 million homes freed up.

“In this sense, the silver tsunami is more like a tide, with a gradual reduction phasing in over several years,” Freddie Mac said. “While the number of people aging out of homeownership will increase in the coming years, it is more of an upward sloping trend than a disruptive spike.”

But there is a potential caveat. Homeownership retention rates have increased over time with longer life expectancies and healthier outcomes for older people. The average baby boomer is 67 years old, according to John Burns Research and Consulting, and will live another 21 years. So taking that into account and using a more recent retention rate rather than the historical average, the decline in boomer households “would be closer to one million less,” the report said.

Unlike Whitney, other economists—in line with Freddie Mac’s reasoning—believe the “silver tsunami” won’t be much of a tsunami at all. Rather, it will take a decade or more for boomers to fully start downsizing, which this generation doesn’t typically start doing until about age 80, Mark Fleming, chief economist with Fortune 500 financial services company First American, previously told Fortune. He calls this the “aging out process.” Because the baby boomer generation includes people born between the mid-1940s and mid-1960s, we still have a way to go before all of them are ready to forgo their current housing situation, according to Fleming.

“Baby boomers are staying in their homes longer. They’re wealthier. They’re healthier. They’re able to stay in place longer than generations past,” Fleming said. “And it is true that the cycle of the large baby boomer generation aging out will happen. But not yet.” A Fannie Mae report released Thursday also suggested that baby boomers are content aging in place. Only 17% of older homeowners said they sold their home, or plan to, during retirement, according to Fannie Mae‘s survey, as the result of both a financial and emotional attachment to their home. What’s more is 62% of respondents said their goal is to leave their home to their heirs.

Regardless of the pace of the silver tsunami, or tide, it won’t completely fix housing affordability for younger generations because home prices are already out of reach. While some baby boomers might move into retirement communities, others may opt for smaller homes—the same ones that younger generations want. That could continue to sideline millennials and younger generations, and potentially drive up starter home prices further. Not to mention that baby boomers have more cash on hand, so they’ll be the ones to win out in a bidding war.

“There’s a big overlap between select baby boomers and select millennials,” Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, a distributor of housing market data and consulting, previously told Fortune. “The key difference here is that the baby boomer will likely be able to tap home equity by selling their existing home, allowing them to perhaps make a more compelling offer on the home compared to the millennials, especially if the latter group are still renting.”

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