成人小说亚洲一区二区三区,亚洲国产精品一区二区三区,国产精品成人精品久久久,久久综合一区二区三区,精品无码av一区二区,国产一级a毛一级a看免费视频,欧洲uv免费在线区一二区,亚洲国产欧美中日韩成人综合视频,国产熟女一区二区三区五月婷小说,亚洲一区波多野结衣在线

首頁 500強(qiáng) 活動(dòng) 榜單 商業(yè) 科技 領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力 專題 品牌中心
雜志訂閱

比特幣黑天鵝:中本聰回歸!

2024年1月,中本聰?shù)钠渲幸粋€(gè)錢包收到了一份數(shù)額巨大的禮物——價(jià)值約120萬美元的比特幣。

文本設(shè)置
小號(hào)
默認(rèn)
大號(hào)
Plus(0條)

2021年,一座紀(jì)念中本聰?shù)牡裣翊A⒃谛傺览歼_(dá)佩斯的一個(gè)公園里。圖片來源:JANOS KUMMER—GETTY IMAGES

比特幣(Bitcoin)重回巔峰。上周,在貝萊德(BlackRock)等公司支持的新交易所交易基金(ETF)的推動(dòng)下,比特幣突破了歷史新高,提升了其作為主流投資的地位。誠(chéng)然,這并不意味著比特幣是完全安全的。除了歷史上的波動(dòng)性,比特幣還面臨著一些獨(dú)特的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的可能性極小,但一旦發(fā)生,就可能帶來毀滅性的后果。其中最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是比特幣的匿名創(chuàng)造者中本聰(Satoshi Nakamoto)的回歸,他從比特幣誕生之初就控制著大量比特幣,可能會(huì)以前所未有的方式給市場(chǎng)帶來震蕩。

人們普遍認(rèn)為中本聰永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)回來了,但最近的事件——包括中本聰錢包里一筆120萬美元的神秘存款,以及英國(guó)正在進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)關(guān)于中本聰身份的審判——提醒我們,不太可能發(fā)生并不意味著不會(huì)發(fā)生。下面我們就來仔細(xì)看看比特幣的創(chuàng)造者回歸的可能性,以及如果回歸意味著什么。

中本聰?shù)呢?cái)富

2008年,中本聰發(fā)表了一份闡述比特幣原理的白皮書,從而一舉成名。在那之后,他或她或他們活躍于早期的比特幣在線論壇,并定期給其他開發(fā)者發(fā)送電子郵件,直到2011年才銷聲匿跡。2014年,中本聰最后一次短暫露面,駁斥了一則聲稱發(fā)現(xiàn)了他們身份的新聞報(bào)道,但自那以后就杳無音訊。

在消失的同時(shí),中本聰還留下了大量比特幣錢包。當(dāng)時(shí)比特幣的交易價(jià)格還不到1美元,每添加一個(gè)新區(qū)塊鏈就能夠產(chǎn)生50個(gè)比特幣(而從下個(gè)月開始,將只產(chǎn)生3個(gè)比特幣),大量比特幣就是在這時(shí)積累起來的。區(qū)塊鏈的透明性使得人們猜測(cè)中本聰控制著哪些錢包變得易如反掌。

取證公司Chainalysis對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“我們估計(jì)中本聰?shù)馁Y金總額為112.4萬比特幣,分布在大約3.6萬個(gè)錢包里。這一數(shù)字并沒有隨著時(shí)間的推移而改變?!?/p>

該公司補(bǔ)充道,這些錢包不時(shí)被“匯入”極少量的比特幣,這反映了一個(gè)事實(shí),即由于錢包地址是公開的,任何人都可以向其匯入比特幣。

然而,2024年1月,中本聰?shù)钠渲幸粋€(gè)錢包收到了一份數(shù)額巨大的禮物——價(jià)值約120萬美元的比特幣。捐贈(zèng)的原因成謎。有可能只是一位富有的加密愛好者為紀(jì)念比特幣誕生15周年而贈(zèng)送的禮物,但也有人給出不樂觀的猜測(cè),這份禮物的規(guī)模反映了政府稅務(wù)部門試圖通過向當(dāng)局提供合法理由來發(fā)出傳票,從而讓中本聰陷入圈套。

但即便如此,當(dāng)局也必須知道要傳喚誰,這就引發(fā)了一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期存在的問題:中本聰?shù)降资钦l。即使在15年后的今天,這一話題還是會(huì)時(shí)不時(shí)出現(xiàn)在媒體上,最近一次是由于一個(gè)名叫克雷格·賴特的冒名頂替者。他目前正在接受審判,試圖讓英國(guó)法官裁定他是比特幣的創(chuàng)造者。

雖然賴特顯然不是中本聰,但這場(chǎng)審判迫使一位早期比特幣開發(fā)者提供了他與中本聰之間的數(shù)百封電子郵件。雖然這些電子郵件沒有確鑿的證據(jù)證明中本聰?shù)纳矸?,但卻提供了大量額外的證據(jù),包括時(shí)間戳以及拼寫和句法上的怪癖。

這些額外的線索很可能會(huì)加強(qiáng)現(xiàn)有的最有力的假設(shè):中本聰是自由主義博學(xué)家尼克·薩博,他很可能是在與已故密碼學(xué)家哈爾·芬尼密切合作的過程中創(chuàng)造了比特幣。芬尼的遺體被低溫冷凍,他對(duì)比特幣的興趣可能部分源于他想在死而復(fù)生后獲得金錢。

雖然主流猜測(cè)傾向于忽視薩博-芬尼理論,而傾向于廣為人知的人物(埃隆·馬斯克目前是一個(gè)流行的選擇),但大多數(shù)從早期開始就參與加密貨幣項(xiàng)目的人都會(huì)默認(rèn)該理論是正確的。然而,對(duì)比特幣的長(zhǎng)期信徒而言,這一話題略帶忌諱意味——一方面是因?yàn)樗麄兏敢獍驯忍貛诺钠鹪垂适乱暈樽诮讨i,另一方面是因?yàn)樗麄円恢抡J(rèn)為,暴露中本聰不會(huì)帶來任何好處。

至于中本聰決定自己站出來,這種可能性微乎其微。比特幣歷史學(xué)家、CoinDesk早期主編皮特·里佐告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,中本聰重新出現(xiàn)的可能性就像“小行星撞擊地球”一樣——時(shí)間越久,這種可能性就越小。

里佐很可能是正確的,原因有二。首先是意識(shí)形態(tài)方面的原因:中本聰是去中心化貨幣體系的狂熱信徒,為了讓比特幣取得成功,他必須把自己從這一體系里剔除。如果中本聰回歸,這將類似于宣布自己是國(guó)王,或者更糟糕的是,在加密貨幣信徒的眼中,他將成為央行行長(zhǎng)。中本聰不太可能公開自己身份的另一個(gè)原因更為實(shí)際:這樣做會(huì)導(dǎo)致全球的罪犯、狂徒和稅務(wù)稽查員蜂擁而至——誰需要這些呢?

然而,中本聰不會(huì)主動(dòng)透露自己的身份,這并不能夠消除當(dāng)局試圖脅迫中本聰本人或他的某位同事披露誰是比特幣的創(chuàng)造者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。但是,鑒于時(shí)間已經(jīng)過去了15年,而且中本聰很可能詭計(jì)多端,不會(huì)以這種方式被逮捕,這也使得這種情況不太可能發(fā)生。

一些人還提出了中本聰可能回歸以控制比特幣的核心代碼的可能性。然而,考慮到比特幣的去中心化維護(hù)方式,這種情況幾乎是不可能發(fā)生的。原因也很簡(jiǎn)單,如果中本聰在意識(shí)形態(tài)上反對(duì)比特幣的演變方式,他們?cè)缇蜁?huì)表達(dá)自己的意見了。

不過,所有這些都沒有考慮到最后一個(gè)未知因素:中本聰最終死亡這一事件。

死人開關(guān)?

中本聰可能是比特幣這一去中心化金融項(xiàng)目的忠實(shí)信徒,但他也是人類,很可能有家人和愛人。就像任何一個(gè)擁有巨額財(cái)富的人一樣,他很可能會(huì)對(duì)財(cái)富傳承做出相關(guān)安排。

這就提出了一個(gè)問題:當(dāng)中本聰去世后,他所有的比特幣——估計(jì)至少有750億美元的財(cái)富——將何去何從?知名加密貨幣投資公司CoinFund的合伙人賽斯·金斯稱,他已經(jīng)考慮過這個(gè)問題,并對(duì)最有可能出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果做出了猜測(cè)。

根據(jù)金斯的說法,中本聰很可能控制著比特幣早期的其他一些錢包,而Chainalysis和其他取證公司評(píng)估的與中本聰相關(guān)的錢包群并不包括這些錢包。金斯認(rèn)為,中本聰將在悄然間把這些錢分給親人,而且很可能已經(jīng)這樣做了。

如果金斯的猜測(cè)是錯(cuò)誤的呢?如果中本聰現(xiàn)在,或者在他死后,選擇變賣他所有的比特幣[用加密貨幣業(yè)界對(duì)俚語來說就是“清倉(cāng)”(dump his bags)],會(huì)發(fā)生什么情況呢?超過100萬比特幣的大規(guī)模拋售肯定會(huì)擾亂市場(chǎng),壓低價(jià)格。

不過,金斯預(yù)測(cè),市場(chǎng)會(huì)消化這一沖擊帶來的影響,而且隨著時(shí)間的推移,市場(chǎng)會(huì)變得更加強(qiáng)勁,因?yàn)閽伿蹠?huì)導(dǎo)致比特幣變得更加分散。不過,他也提出了另一個(gè)耐人尋味的設(shè)想:中本聰通過所謂的“死人開關(guān)”來宣布自己的死亡。

死人開關(guān)的理念非常簡(jiǎn)單。它可能涉及每月甚至每年一次的在線活動(dòng)——發(fā)送電子郵件、更新網(wǎng)站或其他任何事情——如果不執(zhí)行這些活動(dòng),就會(huì)觸發(fā)自動(dòng)情景發(fā)生。以中本聰為例,這可能是一封來自他廢棄已久的電子郵箱的電子郵件,或是在原始比特幣論壇上更新他已經(jīng)去世并選擇燒毀錢包鑰匙的消息。

金斯說,如果這種情況發(fā)生,市場(chǎng)的反應(yīng)很可能就是欣喜若狂,比特幣價(jià)格大幅飆升,原因是投資者確認(rèn)中本聰?shù)木揞~財(cái)富已經(jīng)一去不復(fù)返了。

當(dāng)然,所有這些都只是假設(shè),因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在沒有人確切知道中本聰是誰,也沒有人知道他們打算如何處理巨額比特幣財(cái)富。然而,事實(shí)是,在評(píng)估持有比特幣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí),投資者必須考慮到以下情況:比特幣創(chuàng)造者未來可能采取的行動(dòng)和死亡事件,以及750億美元帶來的潛在波動(dòng)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

比特幣(Bitcoin)重回巔峰。上周,在貝萊德(BlackRock)等公司支持的新交易所交易基金(ETF)的推動(dòng)下,比特幣突破了歷史新高,提升了其作為主流投資的地位。誠(chéng)然,這并不意味著比特幣是完全安全的。除了歷史上的波動(dòng)性,比特幣還面臨著一些獨(dú)特的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的可能性極小,但一旦發(fā)生,就可能帶來毀滅性的后果。其中最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是比特幣的匿名創(chuàng)造者中本聰(Satoshi Nakamoto)的回歸,他從比特幣誕生之初就控制著大量比特幣,可能會(huì)以前所未有的方式給市場(chǎng)帶來震蕩。

人們普遍認(rèn)為中本聰永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)回來了,但最近的事件——包括中本聰錢包里一筆120萬美元的神秘存款,以及英國(guó)正在進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)關(guān)于中本聰身份的審判——提醒我們,不太可能發(fā)生并不意味著不會(huì)發(fā)生。下面我們就來仔細(xì)看看比特幣的創(chuàng)造者回歸的可能性,以及如果回歸意味著什么。

中本聰?shù)呢?cái)富

2008年,中本聰發(fā)表了一份闡述比特幣原理的白皮書,從而一舉成名。在那之后,他或她或他們活躍于早期的比特幣在線論壇,并定期給其他開發(fā)者發(fā)送電子郵件,直到2011年才銷聲匿跡。2014年,中本聰最后一次短暫露面,駁斥了一則聲稱發(fā)現(xiàn)了他們身份的新聞報(bào)道,但自那以后就杳無音訊。

在消失的同時(shí),中本聰還留下了大量比特幣錢包。當(dāng)時(shí)比特幣的交易價(jià)格還不到1美元,每添加一個(gè)新區(qū)塊鏈就能夠產(chǎn)生50個(gè)比特幣(而從下個(gè)月開始,將只產(chǎn)生3個(gè)比特幣),大量比特幣就是在這時(shí)積累起來的。區(qū)塊鏈的透明性使得人們猜測(cè)中本聰控制著哪些錢包變得易如反掌。

取證公司Chainalysis對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“我們估計(jì)中本聰?shù)馁Y金總額為112.4萬比特幣,分布在大約3.6萬個(gè)錢包里。這一數(shù)字并沒有隨著時(shí)間的推移而改變?!?/p>

該公司補(bǔ)充道,這些錢包不時(shí)被“匯入”極少量的比特幣,這反映了一個(gè)事實(shí),即由于錢包地址是公開的,任何人都可以向其匯入比特幣。

然而,2024年1月,中本聰?shù)钠渲幸粋€(gè)錢包收到了一份數(shù)額巨大的禮物——價(jià)值約120萬美元的比特幣。捐贈(zèng)的原因成謎。有可能只是一位富有的加密愛好者為紀(jì)念比特幣誕生15周年而贈(zèng)送的禮物,但也有人給出不樂觀的猜測(cè),這份禮物的規(guī)模反映了政府稅務(wù)部門試圖通過向當(dāng)局提供合法理由來發(fā)出傳票,從而讓中本聰陷入圈套。

但即便如此,當(dāng)局也必須知道要傳喚誰,這就引發(fā)了一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期存在的問題:中本聰?shù)降资钦l。即使在15年后的今天,這一話題還是會(huì)時(shí)不時(shí)出現(xiàn)在媒體上,最近一次是由于一個(gè)名叫克雷格·賴特的冒名頂替者。他目前正在接受審判,試圖讓英國(guó)法官裁定他是比特幣的創(chuàng)造者。

雖然賴特顯然不是中本聰,但這場(chǎng)審判迫使一位早期比特幣開發(fā)者提供了他與中本聰之間的數(shù)百封電子郵件。雖然這些電子郵件沒有確鑿的證據(jù)證明中本聰?shù)纳矸?,但卻提供了大量額外的證據(jù),包括時(shí)間戳以及拼寫和句法上的怪癖。

這些額外的線索很可能會(huì)加強(qiáng)現(xiàn)有的最有力的假設(shè):中本聰是自由主義博學(xué)家尼克·薩博,他很可能是在與已故密碼學(xué)家哈爾·芬尼密切合作的過程中創(chuàng)造了比特幣。芬尼的遺體被低溫冷凍,他對(duì)比特幣的興趣可能部分源于他想在死而復(fù)生后獲得金錢。

雖然主流猜測(cè)傾向于忽視薩博-芬尼理論,而傾向于廣為人知的人物(埃隆·馬斯克目前是一個(gè)流行的選擇),但大多數(shù)從早期開始就參與加密貨幣項(xiàng)目的人都會(huì)默認(rèn)該理論是正確的。然而,對(duì)比特幣的長(zhǎng)期信徒而言,這一話題略帶忌諱意味——一方面是因?yàn)樗麄兏敢獍驯忍貛诺钠鹪垂适乱暈樽诮讨i,另一方面是因?yàn)樗麄円恢抡J(rèn)為,暴露中本聰不會(huì)帶來任何好處。

至于中本聰決定自己站出來,這種可能性微乎其微。比特幣歷史學(xué)家、CoinDesk早期主編皮特·里佐告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,中本聰重新出現(xiàn)的可能性就像“小行星撞擊地球”一樣——時(shí)間越久,這種可能性就越小。

里佐很可能是正確的,原因有二。首先是意識(shí)形態(tài)方面的原因:中本聰是去中心化貨幣體系的狂熱信徒,為了讓比特幣取得成功,他必須把自己從這一體系里剔除。如果中本聰回歸,這將類似于宣布自己是國(guó)王,或者更糟糕的是,在加密貨幣信徒的眼中,他將成為央行行長(zhǎng)。中本聰不太可能公開自己身份的另一個(gè)原因更為實(shí)際:這樣做會(huì)導(dǎo)致全球的罪犯、狂徒和稅務(wù)稽查員蜂擁而至——誰需要這些呢?

然而,中本聰不會(huì)主動(dòng)透露自己的身份,這并不能夠消除當(dāng)局試圖脅迫中本聰本人或他的某位同事披露誰是比特幣的創(chuàng)造者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。但是,鑒于時(shí)間已經(jīng)過去了15年,而且中本聰很可能詭計(jì)多端,不會(huì)以這種方式被逮捕,這也使得這種情況不太可能發(fā)生。

一些人還提出了中本聰可能回歸以控制比特幣的核心代碼的可能性。然而,考慮到比特幣的去中心化維護(hù)方式,這種情況幾乎是不可能發(fā)生的。原因也很簡(jiǎn)單,如果中本聰在意識(shí)形態(tài)上反對(duì)比特幣的演變方式,他們?cè)缇蜁?huì)表達(dá)自己的意見了。

不過,所有這些都沒有考慮到最后一個(gè)未知因素:中本聰最終死亡這一事件。

死人開關(guān)?

中本聰可能是比特幣這一去中心化金融項(xiàng)目的忠實(shí)信徒,但他也是人類,很可能有家人和愛人。就像任何一個(gè)擁有巨額財(cái)富的人一樣,他很可能會(huì)對(duì)財(cái)富傳承做出相關(guān)安排。

這就提出了一個(gè)問題:當(dāng)中本聰去世后,他所有的比特幣——估計(jì)至少有750億美元的財(cái)富——將何去何從?知名加密貨幣投資公司CoinFund的合伙人賽斯·金斯稱,他已經(jīng)考慮過這個(gè)問題,并對(duì)最有可能出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果做出了猜測(cè)。

根據(jù)金斯的說法,中本聰很可能控制著比特幣早期的其他一些錢包,而Chainalysis和其他取證公司評(píng)估的與中本聰相關(guān)的錢包群并不包括這些錢包。金斯認(rèn)為,中本聰將在悄然間把這些錢分給親人,而且很可能已經(jīng)這樣做了。

如果金斯的猜測(cè)是錯(cuò)誤的呢?如果中本聰現(xiàn)在,或者在他死后,選擇變賣他所有的比特幣[用加密貨幣業(yè)界對(duì)俚語來說就是“清倉(cāng)”(dump his bags)],會(huì)發(fā)生什么情況呢?超過100萬比特幣的大規(guī)模拋售肯定會(huì)擾亂市場(chǎng),壓低價(jià)格。

不過,金斯預(yù)測(cè),市場(chǎng)會(huì)消化這一沖擊帶來的影響,而且隨著時(shí)間的推移,市場(chǎng)會(huì)變得更加強(qiáng)勁,因?yàn)閽伿蹠?huì)導(dǎo)致比特幣變得更加分散。不過,他也提出了另一個(gè)耐人尋味的設(shè)想:中本聰通過所謂的“死人開關(guān)”來宣布自己的死亡。

死人開關(guān)的理念非常簡(jiǎn)單。它可能涉及每月甚至每年一次的在線活動(dòng)——發(fā)送電子郵件、更新網(wǎng)站或其他任何事情——如果不執(zhí)行這些活動(dòng),就會(huì)觸發(fā)自動(dòng)情景發(fā)生。以中本聰為例,這可能是一封來自他廢棄已久的電子郵箱的電子郵件,或是在原始比特幣論壇上更新他已經(jīng)去世并選擇燒毀錢包鑰匙的消息。

金斯說,如果這種情況發(fā)生,市場(chǎng)的反應(yīng)很可能就是欣喜若狂,比特幣價(jià)格大幅飆升,原因是投資者確認(rèn)中本聰?shù)木揞~財(cái)富已經(jīng)一去不復(fù)返了。

當(dāng)然,所有這些都只是假設(shè),因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在沒有人確切知道中本聰是誰,也沒有人知道他們打算如何處理巨額比特幣財(cái)富。然而,事實(shí)是,在評(píng)估持有比特幣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí),投資者必須考慮到以下情況:比特幣創(chuàng)造者未來可能采取的行動(dòng)和死亡事件,以及750億美元帶來的潛在波動(dòng)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

Bitcoin is back on top. Last week, the original cryptocurrency cracked its all-time high, fueled by new ETFs backed by BlackRock and others that have elevated its status as a mainstream investment. That doesn’t mean, of course, that Bitcoin is totally safe. Aside from its historic volatility, Bitcoin is exposed to a few unique risks that are highly unlikely but potentially devastating should they materialize. The biggest of these is the return of its pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, who controls a vast hoard of Bitcoins from the currency’s earliest days, and who could shock the market in unprecedented ways.

It is widely assumed Satoshi will never return, but recent events—including a mysterious $1.2 million deposit to one of their wallets and an ongoing U.K. trial focused on their identity—are a reminder that unlikely does not mean impossible. Here’s a closer look at the odds Bitcoin’s creator could come back—and what it would mean if they did.

Satoshi’s fortune

Satoshi Nakamoto first flirted with fame with the publication of a white paper laying out the case for Bitcoin in 2008. After that, he or she or they was active in early online Bitcoin forums, and regularly emailed other developers until 2011 before going dark. Satoshi briefly surfaced one final time in 2014 to refute a news story that professed to discover their identity, but it’s been crickets ever since.

In disappearing from the scene, Satoshi also left untouched a large trove of Bitcoin wallets. These were amassed during a time when Bitcoin traded for less than $1 and when each new piece added to the blockchain yielded 50 coins (versus the three it will yield beginning next month). The transparent nature of the blockchain makes it possible to make a very good guess as to which wallets Satoshi controlled.

“We estimate Satoshi’s funds total 1.124 million Bitcoin across about 36,000 wallets. That total has not changed over time,” the forensics firm Chainalysis told Fortune.

The company added that the wallets have been “dusted” with minimal amounts from time to time, which reflects the fact that, because wallet addresses are public, anyone can send Bitcoin to them.

In January, however, one of the Satoshi wallets received a gift that was decidedly not minimal—around $1.2 million worth of Bitcoin. The reason for the donation is a mystery. It’s possible it was simply a tribute by a wealthy crypto lover to mark Bitcoin’s 15th anniversary, but others have speculated more ominously that the size of the gift reflected an attempt by a governmental tax authority to ensnare Satoshi by giving authorities legal cause to issue subpoenas.

But even if this were the case, authorities would have to know whom to subpoena—raising the long-running question of who Satoshi is. Even 15 years later, the topic surfaces in the media on a semi-regular basis, most recently as the result of a pretender named Craig Wright who’s currently in midst of a trial in which he’s seeking to have a U.K. judge rule that he invented Bitcoin.

Although Wright is clearly not Satoshi, the trial has obliged an early Bitcoin developer to furnish hundreds of emails between him and Satoshi. While the emails contain no smoking guns as to the latter’s identity, they do furnish a heap of additional evidence in the form of time stamps as well as quirks in spelling and syntax.

These additional clues are likely to reinforce the strongest existing hypothesis: that Satoshi is the libertarian polymath Nick Szabo, who likely created Bitcoin while working closely with Hal Finney, the late cryptographer who had his body cryogenically frozen—and whose interest in Bitcoin may have stemmed in part from wanting to have access to money if he returned to life.

While mainstream speculation tends to overlook the Szabo-Finney theory in favor of more familiar names (Elon Musk is currently a fashionable choice) most of those involved in crypto since the early days will quietly concede the theory is true. The topic is somewhat taboo, however, among longtime Bitcoin believers—both because they prefer to treat the currency’s origin story as religious mystery, and because of a consensus that nothing good would come from exposing Satoshi.

As for Satoshi deciding to come forward on their own, the chances of that are extremely unlikely. Pete Rizzo, a Bitcoin historian who was an early editor-in-chief at CoinDesk, tells Fortune that Satoshi’s reemergence is about as likely as “an asteroid hitting the earth”—with the odds further declining the more time passes.

Rizzo is likely correct for two reasons. The first is ideological: Satoshi was a fervent believer in a decentralized system of money and, for Bitcoin to succeed, he had to remove himself from the picture. To return would be akin to proclaiming himself a king or, worse in the eyes of crypto believers, a central banker. The other reason Satoshi is highly unlikely to reveal himself is more practical: Doing so would attract a global swarm of criminals, crackpots, and tax inspectors—and who needs that?

The fact that Satoshi won’t voluntarily reveal himself doesn’t, however, eliminate the risk that a state authority could try to coerce him or one of his associates into disclosing who created Bitcoin. But given that 15 years have elapsed—and the fact that Satoshi is likely too wily to be caught this way—also makes this scenario improbable.

Some have also raised the possibility that Satoshi could return in order to exert control over Bitcoin’s core code. That scenario, however, is all but impossible given the decentralized way the currency is maintained, and for the simple reason that if Satoshi had an ideological objection to how Bitcoin has evolved, they would have spoken up by now.

All of this, though, doesn’t account for a final wild card: Satoshi’s eventual death.

A dead man’s switch?

Satoshi may be a true believer in the decentralized financial project known as Bitcoin, but he is also a human who very likely has family and loved ones. And like anyone with a large fortune, he’s likely to make arrangements to pass on his wealth.

This raises the question of what will happen to all of Satoshi’s Bitcoins—a fortune estimated to be at least $75 billion—when he passes. Seth Ginns, a partner at the prominent crypto investment firm CoinFund, says he has given the matter some thought—and made a guess at the most likely outcome.

According to Ginns, Satoshi likely controls a number of other wallets from Bitcoin’s early days that are not counted among the cluster associated with him as assessed by Chainalysis and other forensic companies. Ginns suggests that Satoshi will quietly disburse these to his loved ones, and likely has done so already.

What if Ginns’s guess is wrong though? What would happen if Satoshi now, or after his death, chose to liquidate his entire stash (“dump his bags” in crypto slang)? The mass unloading of over 1 million Bitcoins would certainly roil the market and tank prices.

Ginns, however, predicts that the market would absorb the shock and, in time, become even stronger since the selloff would result in Bitcoin becoming even more decentralized. But he also raised another intriguing scenario: that Satoshi has a so-called dead man’s switch to announce his death.

The idea of a dead man’s switch is pretty simple. It could involve a monthly or even yearly online activity—sending an email, updating a website, or whatever—that, if not performed, would trigger an automated scenario to occur. In the case of Satoshi, that could be an email from his long abandoned email address or an update to the original Bitcoin forum that he has died and elected to burn the keys to his wallets.

If this were to occur, Ginns says, the reaction in the market would likely be euphoria and a massive surge in the price as investors received confirmation Satoshi’s massive fortune was gone forever.

All of this is hypothetical, of course, as right now no one really knows for sure who Satoshi is or what—if anything—they plan to do with their huge stash of Bitcoins. The fact remains, however, that in assessing the risks of holding Bitcoin, investors must account for the future actions—and death—of its creator—and potentially a $75 billion swing.

財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)為財(cái)富媒體知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
0條Plus
精彩評(píng)論
評(píng)論

撰寫或查看更多評(píng)論

請(qǐng)打開財(cái)富Plus APP

前往打開
熱讀文章
亚洲国产成人精品女人久久久| 国产无码在线免费大片| 久久99中文字幕无码| 人妻AV无码系列一区二区三区| 国产亚洲人成网站在线观看| 四虎永久在线精品免费一区二区| 日日操天天操夜夜操| 国产人成午夜免电影费观看| 好爽好紧好大的免费视频国产| 久久天天躁夜夜躁狠狠| 文视频欧美黑人又粗又大久久久| 国产女人的高潮国语对白入口| 成人h视频在线观看| 亚洲一级毛片a级| 久久精品久久久久观看99水蜜桃| 欧美国产激情一区二区三区| 久久综合久久爱久久综合伊人 | 亚洲精品国产高清不卡在线| 小小水蜜桃高清电视剧观看| 一级做a爰片久久毛片美女| 亚洲av无码之国产精品| 亚洲av婷婷五月产av中文| 成人中文国产手机免费| avtt中文字幕无码一区| 浮力影院欧美三级日本三级| 日韩精品久久久久久| 亚洲AV永久无码精品一百度影院| 国产无码精品在线观看| 一本色道无码不卡在线观看| 欧美亚洲一区二区三区| 午夜av精品一区二区三区| 日韩AV在线免费观看狠狠综合久久久综合| AV狼友无码国产在线观看不卡| 国产午夜激无码av毛片不卡| 人妻无码AⅤ在线一区二区视频| 国产精品视频全国免费观看| 无码人妻精品一区二区三区夜夜嗨| 观看A一级一区二区| 92精品国产自产在线观看| 国产毛片无码专区国产国庆A片在线观看| 国产精久久一区二区三区|