Redfin研究發(fā)現(xiàn),在美國,如果你想購買一套入門級住宅,年薪需要達(dá)到約76,000美元。據(jù)美國人口普查局(Census Bureau)統(tǒng)計,中位數(shù)家庭收入為74,580美元,或按照Redfin的估計為84,072美元。無論如何,肯定是某些方面出現(xiàn)了問題。
事情要從疫情期間說起。當(dāng)時,遠(yuǎn)程辦公革命加上史上最低的抵押貸款利率,刺激房地產(chǎn)市場繁榮,自疫情以來房價已經(jīng)暴漲了約50%。不只如此:隨后抵押貸款利率也大幅上漲,一度超過了8%,創(chuàng)下二十多年來的最高水平。后來抵押貸款利率下降到6.91%,但依舊遠(yuǎn)高于疫情期間和之前幾年的水平。那么我們得到了什么?與正常收入和高抵押貸款利率不相符的高房價。當(dāng)然,還有房屋供應(yīng)不足。
分析報告的作者寫道:“入門級住宅的可負(fù)擔(dān)性只有疫情之前的約一半。在2020年2月,美國人的年收入需要達(dá)到40,465美元,才能買得起一套美國入門級住宅,當(dāng)時入門級住宅的中位數(shù)售價為169,000美元,平均抵押貸款利率約為3.5%?!?/p>
Redfin的一份最新分析發(fā)現(xiàn),上個月,普通入門級住宅的售價為240,000美元,平均每月的月供為1,896美元。入門級住宅房價同比上漲了3.4%,而平均月供上漲了8.2%。購買這樣一套入門級住宅需要達(dá)到的年收入,比一年前提高了超過8%。
Redfin高級經(jīng)濟學(xué)家伊萊賈·德拉坎帕表示:“疫情期間的房地產(chǎn)市場繁榮改變了入門級住宅的定義。十年前,許多人認(rèn)為入門級住宅是小戶型三居獨戶住宅?,F(xiàn)在,這種住宅尤其是位于高房價地區(qū)的住宅,房價高達(dá)七位數(shù)。”
去年,《財富》雜志報道稱,300,000美元的入門級住宅已經(jīng)不復(fù)存在。房地產(chǎn)市場研究公司Zonda的首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家阿里·沃爾夫?qū)Α敦敻弧冯s志表示,全美300,000美元以內(nèi)新房項目的占比持續(xù)下降。當(dāng)時沃爾夫說道:“我們在無意中創(chuàng)造了一個租房社會,這并不是因為自愿的選擇,而是因為壓力?!彼€表示,這會加劇“經(jīng)濟中有房和無房群體之間的進一步失衡”?,F(xiàn)在,據(jù)一些人估計,租房比買房成本更低,而且這種情況可能持續(xù)更多年。
沃爾夫后來對《財富》雜志表示,Zonda將入門級住宅的定義調(diào)整為售價400,000美元以下的住宅。如《財富》雜志之前的報道所示,房屋建筑商甚至選擇了建設(shè)面積更小的住宅,而且這依舊不夠。
Redfin的德拉坎帕表示:“目前最經(jīng)濟的住宅,對于普通美國人來說依舊沒有能力購買,更不用說普通的首次購房人,他們往往會選擇更低首付,而作為交換,他們必須支付更高的月供。房價上漲和更高的抵押貸款利率迫使收入高于中位數(shù)收入的購房人,不得不購買入門級住宅,甚至導(dǎo)致收入更低的購房人退出市場。”
然而,從數(shù)字來看,與去年秋天相比,入門級住宅的可負(fù)擔(dān)性有所改善,但這只是因為抵押貸款利率不再維持在8%,因此月供略有下降。在美國的一些地方,購買一套入門級住宅幾乎是不可能實現(xiàn)的夢想。
在加州購買一套入門級住宅需要達(dá)到的收入水平最高。分析報告稱:“在圣何塞,購房人購買一套中位數(shù)價格的入門級住宅,年收入需要達(dá)到約319,000美元,舊金山為306,000美元,在安納海姆為247,000美元,”分別同比上漲了11.7%、2.4%和12.1%。
而在奧克蘭,購買一套普通入門級住宅需要達(dá)到的年收入為209,096美元;圣地亞哥為216,189美元;洛杉磯為177,886美元。要知道加州的中位數(shù)家庭收入只有91,905美元。
除了加州,據(jù)Redfin統(tǒng)計,在奧斯汀購買一套入門級住宅需要達(dá)到的年收入為118,201美元;波士頓為158,764美元;紐約為162,845美元。
購買入門級住宅需要達(dá)到的年收入水平最低的地區(qū)位于鐵銹帶城市,例如在底特律只需要22,000美元,匹茲堡為32,000美元,而圣路易斯為37,000美元。但需要注意的是,在50個人口最密集的城市區(qū)域,只有一個區(qū)域購買入門級住宅所需要的收入水平下降,那就是匹茲堡。其他地區(qū)均處于上漲的趨勢。(財富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
Redfin研究發(fā)現(xiàn),在美國,如果你想購買一套入門級住宅,年薪需要達(dá)到約76,000美元。據(jù)美國人口普查局(Census Bureau)統(tǒng)計,中位數(shù)家庭收入為74,580美元,或按照Redfin的估計為84,072美元。無論如何,肯定是某些方面出現(xiàn)了問題。
事情要從疫情期間說起。當(dāng)時,遠(yuǎn)程辦公革命加上史上最低的抵押貸款利率,刺激房地產(chǎn)市場繁榮,自疫情以來房價已經(jīng)暴漲了約50%。不只如此:隨后抵押貸款利率也大幅上漲,一度超過了8%,創(chuàng)下二十多年來的最高水平。后來抵押貸款利率下降到6.91%,但依舊遠(yuǎn)高于疫情期間和之前幾年的水平。那么我們得到了什么?與正常收入和高抵押貸款利率不相符的高房價。當(dāng)然,還有房屋供應(yīng)不足。
分析報告的作者寫道:“入門級住宅的可負(fù)擔(dān)性只有疫情之前的約一半。在2020年2月,美國人的年收入需要達(dá)到40,465美元,才能買得起一套美國入門級住宅,當(dāng)時入門級住宅的中位數(shù)售價為169,000美元,平均抵押貸款利率約為3.5%?!?/p>
Redfin的一份最新分析發(fā)現(xiàn),上個月,普通入門級住宅的售價為240,000美元,平均每月的月供為1,896美元。入門級住宅房價同比上漲了3.4%,而平均月供上漲了8.2%。購買這樣一套入門級住宅需要達(dá)到的年收入,比一年前提高了超過8%。
Redfin高級經(jīng)濟學(xué)家伊萊賈·德拉坎帕表示:“疫情期間的房地產(chǎn)市場繁榮改變了入門級住宅的定義。十年前,許多人認(rèn)為入門級住宅是小戶型三居獨戶住宅?,F(xiàn)在,這種住宅尤其是位于高房價地區(qū)的住宅,房價高達(dá)七位數(shù)?!?/p>
去年,《財富》雜志報道稱,300,000美元的入門級住宅已經(jīng)不復(fù)存在。房地產(chǎn)市場研究公司Zonda的首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家阿里·沃爾夫?qū)Α敦敻弧冯s志表示,全美300,000美元以內(nèi)新房項目的占比持續(xù)下降。當(dāng)時沃爾夫說道:“我們在無意中創(chuàng)造了一個租房社會,這并不是因為自愿的選擇,而是因為壓力?!彼€表示,這會加劇“經(jīng)濟中有房和無房群體之間的進一步失衡”?,F(xiàn)在,據(jù)一些人估計,租房比買房成本更低,而且這種情況可能持續(xù)更多年。
沃爾夫后來對《財富》雜志表示,Zonda將入門級住宅的定義調(diào)整為售價400,000美元以下的住宅。如《財富》雜志之前的報道所示,房屋建筑商甚至選擇了建設(shè)面積更小的住宅,而且這依舊不夠。
Redfin的德拉坎帕表示:“目前最經(jīng)濟的住宅,對于普通美國人來說依舊沒有能力購買,更不用說普通的首次購房人,他們往往會選擇更低首付,而作為交換,他們必須支付更高的月供。房價上漲和更高的抵押貸款利率迫使收入高于中位數(shù)收入的購房人,不得不購買入門級住宅,甚至導(dǎo)致收入更低的購房人退出市場?!?/p>
然而,從數(shù)字來看,與去年秋天相比,入門級住宅的可負(fù)擔(dān)性有所改善,但這只是因為抵押貸款利率不再維持在8%,因此月供略有下降。在美國的一些地方,購買一套入門級住宅幾乎是不可能實現(xiàn)的夢想。
在加州購買一套入門級住宅需要達(dá)到的收入水平最高。分析報告稱:“在圣何塞,購房人購買一套中位數(shù)價格的入門級住宅,年收入需要達(dá)到約319,000美元,舊金山為306,000美元,在安納海姆為247,000美元,”分別同比上漲了11.7%、2.4%和12.1%。
而在奧克蘭,購買一套普通入門級住宅需要達(dá)到的年收入為209,096美元;圣地亞哥為216,189美元;洛杉磯為177,886美元。要知道加州的中位數(shù)家庭收入只有91,905美元。
除了加州,據(jù)Redfin統(tǒng)計,在奧斯汀購買一套入門級住宅需要達(dá)到的年收入為118,201美元;波士頓為158,764美元;紐約為162,845美元。
購買入門級住宅需要達(dá)到的年收入水平最低的地區(qū)位于鐵銹帶城市,例如在底特律只需要22,000美元,匹茲堡為32,000美元,而圣路易斯為37,000美元。但需要注意的是,在50個人口最密集的城市區(qū)域,只有一個區(qū)域購買入門級住宅所需要的收入水平下降,那就是匹茲堡。其他地區(qū)均處于上漲的趨勢。(財富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
You need to make almost $76,000 a year to buy a starter home, according to Redfin. The median household income is $74,580, per the Census Bureau, or $84,072, by Redfin’s estimate. Either way, something is wrong.
It all goes back to the pandemic, when the remote-work revolution collided with historically low mortgage rates—it fueled a housing boom, and home prices have soared almost 50% since. And that’s not all; mortgage rates followed, at one point reaching a more than two-decade high of just above 8%. They’ve come down since to 6.91%, but are still significantly higher than they were during the pandemic and years prior. So what have we got? High home prices unaligned with normal incomes and high mortgage rates. Oh, and a shortage of homes.
“Starter homes are roughly half as affordable as they were before the pandemic,” the author of the analysis wrote. “Americans needed to earn $40,465 annually to afford the typical U.S. starter home in February 2020, when the median sale price was $169,000 and the average mortgage rate was about 3.5%.”
The typical starter home sold for $240,000 last month, and the average monthly mortgage payment was $1,896, according to a new analysis from Redfin. The former was up 3.4% and the latter 8.2% from a year earlier. And the income needed to afford said starter home is more than 8% higher than a year ago.
“The pandemic housing market boom changed the definition of a starter home,” a Redfin senior economist, Elijah de la Campa, said. “A decade ago, many people thought of a starter home as a small three-bedroom single-family house. Now that type of home could cost seven figures, especially in expensive parts of the country.”
Last year, Fortune reported the $300,000 starter home was going extinct. Ali Wolf, housing market research firm Zonda’s chief economist, told Fortune that the share of new home projects under $300,000 was declining all across the country. “We’re creating, inadvertently, a renter society not because of choice but because of force,” Wolf said at the time—adding that it would fuel a “l(fā)arger imbalance between the haves and have-nots in the economy.” We know right now renting is considered cheaper than buying and will be for years, by some estimates.
Wolf later told Fortune that Zonda adjusted what it considers to be entry-level to homes under $400,000. Homebuilders have even resorted to building smaller homes, as Fortune has reported, and it still isn’t enough.
“Today’s most affordable homes are still hard for the average American to afford, let alone the average first-time buyer who tends to put less money down in exchange for higher monthly payments,” Redfin’s de la Campa said. “Rising prices and mortgage rates are pushing buyers who earn more than the median income to buy starter homes, and often pushing buyers who earn less money out of the market.”
However, starter homes are technically more affordable than they were last fall, but that’s simply because mortgage rates aren’t at 8% anymore, so monthly payments are slightly lower. Still, there are places across the country where it feels nearly impossible to even afford a starter home.
The income needed to buy a starter home in California is the highest. “A homebuyer needs to earn roughly $319,000 to buy the median-priced starter home in San Jose, $306,000 in San Francisco, and $247,000 in Anaheim,” the analysis read—an 11.7%, 2.4%, and 12.1% annual increase, respectively.
More so, to afford a normal starter home in Oakland, you need to make $209,096; or $216,189 in San Diego; or $177,886 in Los Angeles. For some context, California’s median household income is $91,905.
Leaving California, you need to make $118,201 to afford a starter home in Austin; $158,764 in Boston; and $162,845 in New York, according to Redfin.
And the needed income is the lowest in the Rust Belt—in Detroit, you only need to make $22,000, or $32,000 in Pittsburgh, and $37,000 in St. Louis. But consider this, the income needed to afford a starter home only declined in one of the 50 most populous metropolitan areas: Pittsburgh. It rose everywhere else.