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美國3月通脹升高,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)有理由暫??紤]降息

美聯(lián)社
2024-04-12

與一年前相比,美國整體消費(fèi)物價(jià)上漲3.5%,高于2月份的3.2%。

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美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾。圖片來源:DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

美國政府周三發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告稱,上個(gè)月,油價(jià)、房租和汽車保險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)致美國的消費(fèi)物價(jià)繼續(xù)大幅上漲,這可能讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)暫??紤]今年何時(shí)和以多大幅度降息。

2月至3月,剔除容易波動(dòng)的食品和能源價(jià)格的消費(fèi)物價(jià)上漲0.4%,這與前一個(gè)月的漲幅持平。與一年前相比,核心物價(jià)上漲了3.8%,與2月維持了相同的同比漲幅。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)密切關(guān)注核心物價(jià),因?yàn)楹诵奈飪r(jià)為預(yù)測通脹走向提供了一個(gè)合理的指標(biāo)。

3月的通脹率連續(xù)三個(gè)月高于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的目標(biāo),這可能破壞美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年多次降息的前景。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員最近明確表示,如果經(jīng)濟(jì)健康,他們不會(huì)急于下調(diào)基準(zhǔn)利率,盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)之前預(yù)測今年會(huì)三次降息。

3月份的數(shù)據(jù)可能也讓白宮失望,因?yàn)榕u(píng)美國總統(tǒng)喬·拜登的共和黨人,可能將高物價(jià)歸咎于拜登,并以此破壞拜登的連任計(jì)劃。民調(diào)顯示,盡管就業(yè)市場健康,股市接近歷史新高,通脹也在穩(wěn)步回落,但許多美國人仍批評(píng)拜登是造成高物價(jià)的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住?/p>

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾強(qiáng)調(diào),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政策制定者們應(yīng)該對(duì)通脹逐漸緩慢回落到2%的目標(biāo)更有信心。鮑威爾的立場讓月度通脹報(bào)告引起了更多關(guān)注,它可能決定了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在今年什么時(shí)候和以多大力度降低關(guān)鍵利率,甚至?xí)Q定美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是否會(huì)降息。隨著時(shí)間的推移,降息將降低企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者的借款成本,有助于刺激股市上漲。

從2月到3月,整體消費(fèi)物價(jià)上漲0.4%,與前一個(gè)月持平。與一年前相比,整體消費(fèi)物價(jià)上漲3.5%,高于2月份的3.2%。

疫情之后的通脹飆升提高了食品、汽油、房租和其他許多方面的成本。雖然通脹率較2022年6月9.1%的最高點(diǎn)有所回落,但平均物價(jià)依舊遠(yuǎn)高于疫情之前的水平。

今年早些時(shí)候,華爾街的交易商們預(yù)測,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在2024年六次或七次下調(diào)關(guān)鍵利率。3月,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員暗示,他們預(yù)測會(huì)三次降息。但1月和2月的通脹上漲,以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長依舊健康的信號(hào),使多位美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員暗示今年降息次數(shù)將有所減少。

上個(gè)月,雇主增加招聘,失業(yè)率從3.9%下降到3.8%。制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)也顯示,工廠產(chǎn)值經(jīng)過一年多的萎縮之后開始增長。

這些代表經(jīng)濟(jì)活力的信號(hào),使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息的前景變得更加復(fù)雜,因?yàn)榻迪⑼ǔ0l(fā)生在經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期。有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家質(zhì)疑,在經(jīng)濟(jì)健康增長時(shí),為什么要降息?強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)還意味著,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政策制定者們可以慢慢考慮在什么時(shí)候和以多大力度降低消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)的借款成本。

在上個(gè)月的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上,鮑威爾表示,充分就業(yè)本身不會(huì)要求美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)推遲降息。他指出,雖然去年就業(yè)增長強(qiáng)勁,但通脹仍在下降,這主要?dú)w功于可用勞工增多,其中大部分來自新增的移民。

但其他政策制定者表示,最近的數(shù)據(jù)讓他們暫??紤]降息。達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)行長洛里·羅根上周表示,她認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在考慮降息為時(shí)尚早。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

美國政府周三發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告稱,上個(gè)月,油價(jià)、房租和汽車保險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)致美國的消費(fèi)物價(jià)繼續(xù)大幅上漲,這可能讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)暫??紤]今年何時(shí)和以多大幅度降息。

2月至3月,剔除容易波動(dòng)的食品和能源價(jià)格的消費(fèi)物價(jià)上漲0.4%,這與前一個(gè)月的漲幅持平。與一年前相比,核心物價(jià)上漲了3.8%,與2月維持了相同的同比漲幅。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)密切關(guān)注核心物價(jià),因?yàn)楹诵奈飪r(jià)為預(yù)測通脹走向提供了一個(gè)合理的指標(biāo)。

3月的通脹率連續(xù)三個(gè)月高于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的目標(biāo),這可能破壞美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年多次降息的前景。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員最近明確表示,如果經(jīng)濟(jì)健康,他們不會(huì)急于下調(diào)基準(zhǔn)利率,盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)之前預(yù)測今年會(huì)三次降息。

3月份的數(shù)據(jù)可能也讓白宮失望,因?yàn)榕u(píng)美國總統(tǒng)喬·拜登的共和黨人,可能將高物價(jià)歸咎于拜登,并以此破壞拜登的連任計(jì)劃。民調(diào)顯示,盡管就業(yè)市場健康,股市接近歷史新高,通脹也在穩(wěn)步回落,但許多美國人仍批評(píng)拜登是造成高物價(jià)的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住?/p>

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾強(qiáng)調(diào),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政策制定者們應(yīng)該對(duì)通脹逐漸緩慢回落到2%的目標(biāo)更有信心。鮑威爾的立場讓月度通脹報(bào)告引起了更多關(guān)注,它可能決定了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在今年什么時(shí)候和以多大力度降低關(guān)鍵利率,甚至?xí)Q定美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是否會(huì)降息。隨著時(shí)間的推移,降息將降低企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者的借款成本,有助于刺激股市上漲。

從2月到3月,整體消費(fèi)物價(jià)上漲0.4%,與前一個(gè)月持平。與一年前相比,整體消費(fèi)物價(jià)上漲3.5%,高于2月份的3.2%。

疫情之后的通脹飆升提高了食品、汽油、房租和其他許多方面的成本。雖然通脹率較2022年6月9.1%的最高點(diǎn)有所回落,但平均物價(jià)依舊遠(yuǎn)高于疫情之前的水平。

今年早些時(shí)候,華爾街的交易商們預(yù)測,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在2024年六次或七次下調(diào)關(guān)鍵利率。3月,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員暗示,他們預(yù)測會(huì)三次降息。但1月和2月的通脹上漲,以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長依舊健康的信號(hào),使多位美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員暗示今年降息次數(shù)將有所減少。

上個(gè)月,雇主增加招聘,失業(yè)率從3.9%下降到3.8%。制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)也顯示,工廠產(chǎn)值經(jīng)過一年多的萎縮之后開始增長。

這些代表經(jīng)濟(jì)活力的信號(hào),使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息的前景變得更加復(fù)雜,因?yàn)榻迪⑼ǔ0l(fā)生在經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期。有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家質(zhì)疑,在經(jīng)濟(jì)健康增長時(shí),為什么要降息?強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)還意味著,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政策制定者們可以慢慢考慮在什么時(shí)候和以多大力度降低消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)的借款成本。

在上個(gè)月的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上,鮑威爾表示,充分就業(yè)本身不會(huì)要求美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)推遲降息。他指出,雖然去年就業(yè)增長強(qiáng)勁,但通脹仍在下降,這主要?dú)w功于可用勞工增多,其中大部分來自新增的移民。

但其他政策制定者表示,最近的數(shù)據(jù)讓他們暫??紤]降息。達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)行長洛里·羅根上周表示,她認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在考慮降息為時(shí)尚早。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Consumer price increases remained high last month, boosted by gas, rents, and car insurance, the government said Wednesday in a report that will likely give pause to the Federal Reserve as it weighs when and by how much to cut interest rates this year.

Prices outside the volatile food and energy categories rose 0.4% from February to March, the same accelerated pace as in the previous month. Measured from a year earlier, these core prices were up 3.8%, unchanged from the year-over-year rise in February. The Fed closely tracks core prices because they tend to provide a good read of where inflation is headed.

The March figures, the third straight month of inflation readings well above the Fed’s 2% target, threaten to torpedo the prospect of multiple interest rate cuts this year. Fed officials have recently made clear that with the economy healthy, they’re in no rush to cut their benchmark rate despite their earlier projections that they would reduce rates three times this year.

The figures will likely disappoint the White House as well, with Republican critics of President Joe Biden seeking to pin the blame for high prices on the president and use it as a cudgel to derail his re-election bid. Polls show that despite a healthy job market, a near-record-high stock market and the steady drop in inflation, many Americans blame Biden for high prices.

Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that the Fed’s policymakers need more confidence that inflation is steadily slowing to the Fed’s 2% target. Powell’s stance has elevated the profile of the monthly inflation reports, which could determine when and by how much — or even whether — the Fed will reduce its key rate this year. Rate cuts would lead, over time, to lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers and could also fuel a stock market rally.

Overall consumer prices rose 0.4% from February to March, also the same as the previous month. Compared with 12 months earlier, prices rose 3.5%, up from a year-over-year figure of 3.2% in February.

The inflation surge that followed the pandemic jacked up the costs of food, gas, rent and many other items. Though inflation has since plummeted from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022, average prices are still well above where they were before the pandemic.

Early this year, Wall Street traders had projected that the Fed would cut its key rate up to six or seven times in 2024. In March, Fed officials signaled that they envisioned three rate cuts. But elevated inflation readings for January and February — along with signs that economic growth remains healthy — led several Fed officials to suggest that fewer rate cuts may occur this year.

Last month, employers ramped up hiring, and the unemployment rate fell to a low 3.8% from 3.9%. A report on manufacturing also showed that factory output expanded after more than a year of contraction.

Such signs of economic vigor have also complicated the prospect of Fed rate cuts, which typically occur when the economy stumbles. With growth healthy, some economists have asked, why cut rates at all? A strong economy also means that the Fed’s policymakers can take their time to consider when and by how much to reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

At a news conference last month, Powell said that robust hiring, on its own, wouldn’t require the Fed to delay rate cuts. He noted that even though job gains were strong last year, inflation still tumbled thanks in large part to a surge of available workers, mostly from increased immigration.

Some other policymakers, though, said that recent data had given them pause. Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said last week that she thought it was too soon to consider rate cuts.

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