當(dāng)FTX出現(xiàn)問題的傳言開始在網(wǎng)上流傳時(shí),作為該加密貨幣交易所的客戶之一,路易斯·德奧里尼并未在意,而是把注意力放在了接待造訪他邁阿密海灘公寓的朋友身上。
他記得自己當(dāng)時(shí)就說了句“假新聞”,隨后便轉(zhuǎn)身離開了筆記本電腦,拋開了當(dāng)時(shí)每況愈下的加密貨幣社區(qū),去海灘玩了一天。
但沒過幾個(gè)小時(shí),德奧里尼的想法就變了。他回到家,在推特上寫下了自己出金遭拒的經(jīng)歷。
他回憶說:“然后事情越來越亂”??粗淙沼鄷熗高^落地窗灑進(jìn)屋內(nèi),當(dāng)時(shí)31歲的他只想知道這一切將如何收場。
“然后,”他回憶道,“我們的錢就取不出來了。”
在聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人山姆·班克曼·弗里德的財(cái)務(wù)欺詐行為曝光后,F(xiàn)TX隨即陷入內(nèi)訌,試圖從FTX拿回?fù)p失資金的受害者有一百多萬,德奧里尼只是之一。
他說:“當(dāng)時(shí)我覺得加密貨幣算是完了。前景一片黯淡。沒人認(rèn)為比特幣會(huì)再創(chuàng)歷史新高。”
但在加密貨幣的至暗時(shí)刻,德奧里尼的思維開始轉(zhuǎn)動(dòng)起來。
他說:“我當(dāng)時(shí)的想法是,山姆詐騙的時(shí)間不夠長,也沒時(shí)間把所有的錢都賠掉,所以我堅(jiān)信他們肯定能追回一大筆錢?!?/p>
德奧里尼發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì),那就是像他這樣的債權(quán)人都想至少拿回一部分資金,但在FTX宣布破產(chǎn)時(shí),沒人清楚或能保證該交易所能以何種方式籌集到87億美元來填補(bǔ)資金缺口。換句話說,債權(quán)人很可能會(huì)低價(jià)出售自己的債權(quán)。
那么如果他下場賭一把會(huì)怎么樣呢?
債權(quán)買手
德奧里尼曾用自己持有過的小型基金Arceau買過一些Celsius的破產(chǎn)債權(quán),但這一領(lǐng)域?qū)λ匀韵鄬Ρ容^陌生。而且他認(rèn)識(shí)的大多數(shù)投資者對FTX都是敬而遠(yuǎn)之,沒人愿意掏錢購買這些債權(quán)。
但在那天之后的幾周內(nèi),德奧里尼開始自掏腰包從負(fù)責(zé)清算的對沖基金處購買FTX頭寸,一美元頭寸的成本為幾美分。
他在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)說:“當(dāng)時(shí)沒有任何有關(guān)FTX破產(chǎn)情況的信息。我們冒了很大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我只是做到了‘言出必行’罷了”。
破產(chǎn)債權(quán)交易是一種高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、高回報(bào)的投資策略。在雷曼兄弟公司(Lehman Brothers)、安然公司(Enron)和通用汽車公司(General Motors)破產(chǎn)的過程中,債權(quán)交易者們據(jù)信從這些曾經(jīng)的巨無霸公司的殘骸上賺取了數(shù)億甚至數(shù)十億美元。不過有些時(shí)候投資者買到的債券可能最終會(huì)一文不值。
他說:“結(jié)果比我想象的要好得多?!?/p>
公司破產(chǎn)時(shí),債權(quán)人要面臨漫長的法庭破產(chǎn)程序,而且無法保證能有多大比例的債權(quán)得到償還。許多人寧愿選擇立即將債權(quán)出售給愿意承擔(dān)債權(quán)價(jià)值暴跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)(取決于破產(chǎn)監(jiān)督者能夠收回多少資產(chǎn))的買家,換取現(xiàn)金。
2022年11月11日,F(xiàn)TX向特拉華州地方法院申請破產(chǎn)保護(hù),要想弄清楚自那時(shí)以來,在哪個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)發(fā)生了多大規(guī)模的債權(quán)交易,需要進(jìn)行非常復(fù)雜的計(jì)算。有從事這方面交易的交易者在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示,有些債權(quán)是在線上平臺(tái)完成的交易,有些則是在私下完成,而且買方不需要立即提交轉(zhuǎn)讓文件,信息更新存在滯后性,很多人更是直接將其作為自有債權(quán)進(jìn)行了上報(bào)。
截至3月28日,在業(yè)內(nèi)占主導(dǎo)地位的在線交易平臺(tái)Claims Market上,已有超過4.39億美元債權(quán)通過49筆交易完成了換手。與此同時(shí),根據(jù)截至3月20日的法庭記錄,對沖基金購買了價(jià)值超過23億美元的大幅折價(jià)債權(quán)。
雖然破產(chǎn)法庭仍未確定償還債權(quán)人的確切日期,但現(xiàn)在看來,債權(quán)人很可能會(huì)得到全額賠償。班克曼·弗里德3月28日在曼哈頓法庭宣判時(shí)說:“客戶似乎有望得到全額償付。”
在剛獲得債權(quán)時(shí),許多債權(quán)人以低價(jià)將其轉(zhuǎn)讓了出去。有60多筆價(jià)值超過100萬美元的債權(quán)在債權(quán)市場上完成了交易,2022年11月的成交價(jià)約為票面價(jià)值的10%,而現(xiàn)在的成交價(jià)則高達(dá)93%,這表明人們對償還債務(wù)的信心不斷增強(qiáng)。
與此同時(shí),兩位對債權(quán)銷售較為熟悉的人士告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,由于加密貨幣的價(jià)格不斷上漲,加上AI初創(chuàng)公司Anthropic的售價(jià)超過了8.8億美元,其他人估計(jì)這些債權(quán)可能會(huì)超過其初始價(jià)值,達(dá)到接近120%到140%。
過程
有買家在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)說,在FTX申請破產(chǎn)時(shí),約翰·J·雷三世被任命為FTX的新任首席執(zhí)行官,此舉提高了市場對該公司債權(quán)的興趣。德奧里尼解釋說:“約翰上任后當(dāng)機(jī)立斷,將公司能賣的資產(chǎn)全部賣出,這種做法深得機(jī)構(gòu)債權(quán)買家心意,因?yàn)樗麄儾幌胍忍貛??!?/p>
根據(jù)FTX提交的案件陳述中列出的數(shù)據(jù),到目前為止,F(xiàn)TX已經(jīng)收回了約70億美元資產(chǎn),其中包括變現(xiàn)的加密貨幣、在巴哈馬的38處房產(chǎn)和26億美元現(xiàn)金。
該公司持有約5900萬個(gè)Solana代幣和21482個(gè)比特幣,自其申請破產(chǎn)以來,上述代幣的價(jià)格分別上漲了約1000%和343%。FTX將以當(dāng)前市價(jià)的68折向機(jī)構(gòu)投資者出售4100萬個(gè)Solana代幣,截至發(fā)稿時(shí)價(jià)值約76.5億美元。這種做法讓一些受害者大為光火,包括英國加密貨幣投資者蘇尼爾·卡武里,他在宣判時(shí)指責(zé)班克曼·弗里德“一直騙我們說我們都能獲得全額償付。”
截至3月20日的破產(chǎn)保護(hù)申請顯示,德奧里尼所持有的債權(quán)現(xiàn)在價(jià)值約2900萬美元,而購買這些債權(quán)僅花費(fèi)了350萬美元,用的是個(gè)人資金,相當(dāng)于回報(bào)率超過700%。他說這是他和一些朋友的“家族辦公室投資”。
德奧里尼買下第一筆債權(quán)時(shí)正在和家人一起過圣誕節(jié)。他回憶說,當(dāng)時(shí)父母看起來很擔(dān)心,還取笑他說,由于他的計(jì)劃,可能到下個(gè)圣誕節(jié)就該輪到他們家破產(chǎn)了。從《財(cái)富》雜志看到的合同來看,有份價(jià)值近300萬美元的債權(quán)于2022年12月28日按其票面價(jià)值6%的價(jià)格進(jìn)行了交易。
截至目前,從FTX破產(chǎn)案中獲益最大的買家是專門從事不良債權(quán)投資的對沖基金。截至3月20日,Attestor、Baupost和Farallon分別購買了價(jià)值超過5.2億美元、5.18億美元和3.46億美元的FTX債權(quán),在收益榜上排名靠前。據(jù)知情人士證實(shí),這些基金(在購買FTX債權(quán)時(shí))使用了其他實(shí)體名稱。
117 Partners的破產(chǎn)債權(quán)經(jīng)紀(jì)人托馬斯·布拉澤爾是德奧里尼的朋友,同時(shí)也是業(yè)內(nèi)大佬,專門代表市場上一些最大的對沖基金購買債權(quán)。布拉澤爾說,他最開始進(jìn)行相關(guān)交易是在2022年11月12日,當(dāng)時(shí)FTX還沒有正式申請破產(chǎn)。他曾用約24萬美元購買了一筆800萬美元的債權(quán)(實(shí)付金額約為票面價(jià)值的3%),又用21萬美元購買了另一筆350萬美元的債權(quán)(6%)。
“非常、非??膳隆?/strong>
目前的估價(jià)與去年4月27日的估價(jià)已不可同日而語,當(dāng)時(shí)債權(quán)買家?guī)缀跻呀?jīng)走到絕境。
有一次,在與新加坡債務(wù)人的Zoom電話會(huì)議上,德奧里尼正準(zhǔn)備以25%的票面價(jià)格完成一筆300萬美元的債權(quán)交易。就在他們通話期間,有消息稱,美國聯(lián)邦稅務(wù)局(Internal Revenue Service)以未繳納稅款為由要求FTX賠付440億美元。
他說:“在通話中收到的這條消息把我們嚇壞了?!钡詈筮€是決定買下這些債權(quán)。“這非常、非常可怕”。
雖然聯(lián)邦稅務(wù)局后來將索賠金額降到了204億美元,但如果真罰這么多錢,那FTX的債權(quán)人仍將面臨滅頂之災(zāi)。德奧里尼說:“那樣我們的一切都將化為烏有”。
不過FTX公司已就該筆索賠提起法律訴訟,要求法院予以駁回。該公司的理由是,此舉“或?qū)o限期中止債務(wù)人的償付工作,導(dǎo)致客戶和其他債權(quán)人無法獲得償付款項(xiàng)”。消息人士告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,換句話說,由于該筆罰金會(huì)讓欺詐受害者血本無歸,因此不太可能成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。
去年7月,F(xiàn)TX開通了自己的公共門戶網(wǎng)站(雖然略顯粗糙),方便客戶提出索賠。但在交易初期,關(guān)于哪些資產(chǎn)可以變現(xiàn)和債權(quán)驗(yàn)證方法的信息非常有限。德奧里尼說,許多東西似乎都是從推特眾包而來,而KYC(Know Your Client,了解你的客戶)過程不僅浪費(fèi)時(shí)間,而且還非常不正規(guī)。
布拉澤爾說:“買債券真的是件很難很難的事”。據(jù)他介紹,他至少買到過兩、三次的假債權(quán)。
由于驗(yàn)證債權(quán)的速度太慢,德奧里尼在交易的第一年只買了40份債權(quán)。由此,他產(chǎn)生了另一個(gè)想法,那就是借助自動(dòng)化技術(shù)加快盡職調(diào)查過程。去年12月,他與別人共同創(chuàng)建了自己的門戶網(wǎng)站FTX Creditor,用他的話說,這是一個(gè)“定制化客戶關(guān)系管理、KYC與盡職調(diào)查解決方案”,他說,該網(wǎng)站的創(chuàng)建將驗(yàn)證流程從數(shù)天縮短到了30分鐘。該公司目前有14名員工,遍布各個(gè)大洲,每天24小時(shí)接聽債權(quán)人的電話。
該公司專門從事10萬美元以下的債權(quán)交易,其目標(biāo)是為散戶投資者提供一種便捷的方式,使其能夠在30分鐘的通話時(shí)間內(nèi)完成交易,避免將大量時(shí)間浪費(fèi)在冗長的交易確認(rèn)過程中。
公開記錄顯示,自去年12月以來,F(xiàn)TX Creditor已購買了近1000份債權(quán),價(jià)值約1億美元。根據(jù)市場行情估算,假設(shè)購買價(jià)格為票面價(jià)值的70%左右,那么該公司將可獲利約3000萬美元。
德奧里尼解釋說,受債權(quán)價(jià)值上升影響,交易略有放緩。不過,就在本周,Claims Market上仍有價(jià)值600多萬美元的債權(quán)被買家買走,而且根據(jù)《財(cái)富》雜志看到的一份合同,布拉澤爾仍在以70%的票面價(jià)格購買FTX債權(quán)。
德奧里尼決心在FTX破產(chǎn)案結(jié)束后繼續(xù)從事破產(chǎn)債權(quán)交易業(yè)務(wù),不過在這些債權(quán)得到償還后,他會(huì)先度假一段時(shí)間。
敢于在這些債權(quán)上一擲千金,是因?yàn)樗腔圻^人,善于精打細(xì)算么?也許是。但在德奧里尼眼里,這些條件的出現(xiàn)只是偶然。與其說是自己聰穎過人,他更愿意歸功于“運(yùn)氣”。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
當(dāng)FTX出現(xiàn)問題的傳言開始在網(wǎng)上流傳時(shí),作為該加密貨幣交易所的客戶之一,路易斯·德奧里尼并未在意,而是把注意力放在了接待造訪他邁阿密海灘公寓的朋友身上。
他記得自己當(dāng)時(shí)就說了句“假新聞”,隨后便轉(zhuǎn)身離開了筆記本電腦,拋開了當(dāng)時(shí)每況愈下的加密貨幣社區(qū),去海灘玩了一天。
但沒過幾個(gè)小時(shí),德奧里尼的想法就變了。他回到家,在推特上寫下了自己出金遭拒的經(jīng)歷。
他回憶說:“然后事情越來越亂”。看著落日余暉透過落地窗灑進(jìn)屋內(nèi),當(dāng)時(shí)31歲的他只想知道這一切將如何收場。
“然后,”他回憶道,“我們的錢就取不出來了。”
在聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人山姆·班克曼·弗里德的財(cái)務(wù)欺詐行為曝光后,F(xiàn)TX隨即陷入內(nèi)訌,試圖從FTX拿回?fù)p失資金的受害者有一百多萬,德奧里尼只是之一。
他說:“當(dāng)時(shí)我覺得加密貨幣算是完了。前景一片黯淡。沒人認(rèn)為比特幣會(huì)再創(chuàng)歷史新高?!?/p>
但在加密貨幣的至暗時(shí)刻,德奧里尼的思維開始轉(zhuǎn)動(dòng)起來。
他說:“我當(dāng)時(shí)的想法是,山姆詐騙的時(shí)間不夠長,也沒時(shí)間把所有的錢都賠掉,所以我堅(jiān)信他們肯定能追回一大筆錢?!?/p>
德奧里尼發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì),那就是像他這樣的債權(quán)人都想至少拿回一部分資金,但在FTX宣布破產(chǎn)時(shí),沒人清楚或能保證該交易所能以何種方式籌集到87億美元來填補(bǔ)資金缺口。換句話說,債權(quán)人很可能會(huì)低價(jià)出售自己的債權(quán)。
那么如果他下場賭一把會(huì)怎么樣呢?
債權(quán)買手
德奧里尼曾用自己持有過的小型基金Arceau買過一些Celsius的破產(chǎn)債權(quán),但這一領(lǐng)域?qū)λ匀韵鄬Ρ容^陌生。而且他認(rèn)識(shí)的大多數(shù)投資者對FTX都是敬而遠(yuǎn)之,沒人愿意掏錢購買這些債權(quán)。
但在那天之后的幾周內(nèi),德奧里尼開始自掏腰包從負(fù)責(zé)清算的對沖基金處購買FTX頭寸,一美元頭寸的成本為幾美分。
他在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)說:“當(dāng)時(shí)沒有任何有關(guān)FTX破產(chǎn)情況的信息。我們冒了很大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我只是做到了‘言出必行’罷了”。
破產(chǎn)債權(quán)交易是一種高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、高回報(bào)的投資策略。在雷曼兄弟公司(Lehman Brothers)、安然公司(Enron)和通用汽車公司(General Motors)破產(chǎn)的過程中,債權(quán)交易者們據(jù)信從這些曾經(jīng)的巨無霸公司的殘骸上賺取了數(shù)億甚至數(shù)十億美元。不過有些時(shí)候投資者買到的債券可能最終會(huì)一文不值。
他說:“結(jié)果比我想象的要好得多。”
公司破產(chǎn)時(shí),債權(quán)人要面臨漫長的法庭破產(chǎn)程序,而且無法保證能有多大比例的債權(quán)得到償還。許多人寧愿選擇立即將債權(quán)出售給愿意承擔(dān)債權(quán)價(jià)值暴跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)(取決于破產(chǎn)監(jiān)督者能夠收回多少資產(chǎn))的買家,換取現(xiàn)金。
2022年11月11日,F(xiàn)TX向特拉華州地方法院申請破產(chǎn)保護(hù),要想弄清楚自那時(shí)以來,在哪個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)發(fā)生了多大規(guī)模的債權(quán)交易,需要進(jìn)行非常復(fù)雜的計(jì)算。有從事這方面交易的交易者在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示,有些債權(quán)是在線上平臺(tái)完成的交易,有些則是在私下完成,而且買方不需要立即提交轉(zhuǎn)讓文件,信息更新存在滯后性,很多人更是直接將其作為自有債權(quán)進(jìn)行了上報(bào)。
截至3月28日,在業(yè)內(nèi)占主導(dǎo)地位的在線交易平臺(tái)Claims Market上,已有超過4.39億美元債權(quán)通過49筆交易完成了換手。與此同時(shí),根據(jù)截至3月20日的法庭記錄,對沖基金購買了價(jià)值超過23億美元的大幅折價(jià)債權(quán)。
雖然破產(chǎn)法庭仍未確定償還債權(quán)人的確切日期,但現(xiàn)在看來,債權(quán)人很可能會(huì)得到全額賠償。班克曼·弗里德3月28日在曼哈頓法庭宣判時(shí)說:“客戶似乎有望得到全額償付。”
在剛獲得債權(quán)時(shí),許多債權(quán)人以低價(jià)將其轉(zhuǎn)讓了出去。有60多筆價(jià)值超過100萬美元的債權(quán)在債權(quán)市場上完成了交易,2022年11月的成交價(jià)約為票面價(jià)值的10%,而現(xiàn)在的成交價(jià)則高達(dá)93%,這表明人們對償還債務(wù)的信心不斷增強(qiáng)。
與此同時(shí),兩位對債權(quán)銷售較為熟悉的人士告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,由于加密貨幣的價(jià)格不斷上漲,加上AI初創(chuàng)公司Anthropic的售價(jià)超過了8.8億美元,其他人估計(jì)這些債權(quán)可能會(huì)超過其初始價(jià)值,達(dá)到接近120%到140%。
過程
有買家在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)說,在FTX申請破產(chǎn)時(shí),約翰·J·雷三世被任命為FTX的新任首席執(zhí)行官,此舉提高了市場對該公司債權(quán)的興趣。德奧里尼解釋說:“約翰上任后當(dāng)機(jī)立斷,將公司能賣的資產(chǎn)全部賣出,這種做法深得機(jī)構(gòu)債權(quán)買家心意,因?yàn)樗麄儾幌胍忍貛??!?/p>
根據(jù)FTX提交的案件陳述中列出的數(shù)據(jù),到目前為止,F(xiàn)TX已經(jīng)收回了約70億美元資產(chǎn),其中包括變現(xiàn)的加密貨幣、在巴哈馬的38處房產(chǎn)和26億美元現(xiàn)金。
該公司持有約5900萬個(gè)Solana代幣和21482個(gè)比特幣,自其申請破產(chǎn)以來,上述代幣的價(jià)格分別上漲了約1000%和343%。FTX將以當(dāng)前市價(jià)的68折向機(jī)構(gòu)投資者出售4100萬個(gè)Solana代幣,截至發(fā)稿時(shí)價(jià)值約76.5億美元。這種做法讓一些受害者大為光火,包括英國加密貨幣投資者蘇尼爾·卡武里,他在宣判時(shí)指責(zé)班克曼·弗里德“一直騙我們說我們都能獲得全額償付?!?/p>
截至3月20日的破產(chǎn)保護(hù)申請顯示,德奧里尼所持有的債權(quán)現(xiàn)在價(jià)值約2900萬美元,而購買這些債權(quán)僅花費(fèi)了350萬美元,用的是個(gè)人資金,相當(dāng)于回報(bào)率超過700%。他說這是他和一些朋友的“家族辦公室投資”。
德奧里尼買下第一筆債權(quán)時(shí)正在和家人一起過圣誕節(jié)。他回憶說,當(dāng)時(shí)父母看起來很擔(dān)心,還取笑他說,由于他的計(jì)劃,可能到下個(gè)圣誕節(jié)就該輪到他們家破產(chǎn)了。從《財(cái)富》雜志看到的合同來看,有份價(jià)值近300萬美元的債權(quán)于2022年12月28日按其票面價(jià)值6%的價(jià)格進(jìn)行了交易。
截至目前,從FTX破產(chǎn)案中獲益最大的買家是專門從事不良債權(quán)投資的對沖基金。截至3月20日,Attestor、Baupost和Farallon分別購買了價(jià)值超過5.2億美元、5.18億美元和3.46億美元的FTX債權(quán),在收益榜上排名靠前。據(jù)知情人士證實(shí),這些基金(在購買FTX債權(quán)時(shí))使用了其他實(shí)體名稱。
117 Partners的破產(chǎn)債權(quán)經(jīng)紀(jì)人托馬斯·布拉澤爾是德奧里尼的朋友,同時(shí)也是業(yè)內(nèi)大佬,專門代表市場上一些最大的對沖基金購買債權(quán)。布拉澤爾說,他最開始進(jìn)行相關(guān)交易是在2022年11月12日,當(dāng)時(shí)FTX還沒有正式申請破產(chǎn)。他曾用約24萬美元購買了一筆800萬美元的債權(quán)(實(shí)付金額約為票面價(jià)值的3%),又用21萬美元購買了另一筆350萬美元的債權(quán)(6%)。
“非常、非??膳隆?/strong>
目前的估價(jià)與去年4月27日的估價(jià)已不可同日而語,當(dāng)時(shí)債權(quán)買家?guī)缀跻呀?jīng)走到絕境。
有一次,在與新加坡債務(wù)人的Zoom電話會(huì)議上,德奧里尼正準(zhǔn)備以25%的票面價(jià)格完成一筆300萬美元的債權(quán)交易。就在他們通話期間,有消息稱,美國聯(lián)邦稅務(wù)局(Internal Revenue Service)以未繳納稅款為由要求FTX賠付440億美元。
他說:“在通話中收到的這條消息把我們嚇壞了?!钡詈筮€是決定買下這些債權(quán)?!斑@非常、非??膳隆?。
雖然聯(lián)邦稅務(wù)局后來將索賠金額降到了204億美元,但如果真罰這么多錢,那FTX的債權(quán)人仍將面臨滅頂之災(zāi)。德奧里尼說:“那樣我們的一切都將化為烏有”。
不過FTX公司已就該筆索賠提起法律訴訟,要求法院予以駁回。該公司的理由是,此舉“或?qū)o限期中止債務(wù)人的償付工作,導(dǎo)致客戶和其他債權(quán)人無法獲得償付款項(xiàng)”。消息人士告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,換句話說,由于該筆罰金會(huì)讓欺詐受害者血本無歸,因此不太可能成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。
去年7月,F(xiàn)TX開通了自己的公共門戶網(wǎng)站(雖然略顯粗糙),方便客戶提出索賠。但在交易初期,關(guān)于哪些資產(chǎn)可以變現(xiàn)和債權(quán)驗(yàn)證方法的信息非常有限。德奧里尼說,許多東西似乎都是從推特眾包而來,而KYC(Know Your Client,了解你的客戶)過程不僅浪費(fèi)時(shí)間,而且還非常不正規(guī)。
布拉澤爾說:“買債券真的是件很難很難的事”。據(jù)他介紹,他至少買到過兩、三次的假債權(quán)。
由于驗(yàn)證債權(quán)的速度太慢,德奧里尼在交易的第一年只買了40份債權(quán)。由此,他產(chǎn)生了另一個(gè)想法,那就是借助自動(dòng)化技術(shù)加快盡職調(diào)查過程。去年12月,他與別人共同創(chuàng)建了自己的門戶網(wǎng)站FTX Creditor,用他的話說,這是一個(gè)“定制化客戶關(guān)系管理、KYC與盡職調(diào)查解決方案”,他說,該網(wǎng)站的創(chuàng)建將驗(yàn)證流程從數(shù)天縮短到了30分鐘。該公司目前有14名員工,遍布各個(gè)大洲,每天24小時(shí)接聽債權(quán)人的電話。
該公司專門從事10萬美元以下的債權(quán)交易,其目標(biāo)是為散戶投資者提供一種便捷的方式,使其能夠在30分鐘的通話時(shí)間內(nèi)完成交易,避免將大量時(shí)間浪費(fèi)在冗長的交易確認(rèn)過程中。
公開記錄顯示,自去年12月以來,F(xiàn)TX Creditor已購買了近1000份債權(quán),價(jià)值約1億美元。根據(jù)市場行情估算,假設(shè)購買價(jià)格為票面價(jià)值的70%左右,那么該公司將可獲利約3000萬美元。
德奧里尼解釋說,受債權(quán)價(jià)值上升影響,交易略有放緩。不過,就在本周,Claims Market上仍有價(jià)值600多萬美元的債權(quán)被買家買走,而且根據(jù)《財(cái)富》雜志看到的一份合同,布拉澤爾仍在以70%的票面價(jià)格購買FTX債權(quán)。
德奧里尼決心在FTX破產(chǎn)案結(jié)束后繼續(xù)從事破產(chǎn)債權(quán)交易業(yè)務(wù),不過在這些債權(quán)得到償還后,他會(huì)先度假一段時(shí)間。
敢于在這些債權(quán)上一擲千金,是因?yàn)樗腔圻^人,善于精打細(xì)算么?也許是。但在德奧里尼眼里,這些條件的出現(xiàn)只是偶然。與其說是自己聰穎過人,他更愿意歸功于“運(yùn)氣”。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
When rumors began swirling online that FTX was in trouble, one of the crypto exchange’s customers, Louis d’Origny, took no notice, turning his attention back to the friends he was hosting at his Miami Beach condo.
“Fake news,” he recalls saying. He turned away from his laptop, leaving behind the increasingly distressed crypto community for a day at the beach.
But within hours, the mood had shifted. He returned home to tweets about denied withdrawals.
“Things had gotten more hectic,” he recalls. As the sun set through his floor-to-ceiling windows, the then 31-year-old wondered how this was going to go down.
“And then,” he recalls, “we couldn’t withdraw our money.”
D’Origny is one of over a million or so victims trying to claw back lost funds from FTX, which imploded once the financial fraud of cofounder Sam Bankman-Fried came to light.
“At the time, it felt like the end of crypto,” he said. “It was very doom-and-gloom. Nobody thought that Bitcoin would get to an all-time high ever again.”
But in crypto’s darkest hour, the wheels of d’Origny’s mind started turning.
“My view was that Sam didn’t have enough time to perpetrate this fraud and to lose every single dollar. I was pretty convinced that they would be able to claw back a lot of money,” he said.
D’Origny spotted an opportunity: Creditors like himself wanted at least some of their funds back, but there was no clarity—nor guarantee—over how the exchange could raise the $8.7 billion combined shortfall at the time bankruptcy was declared. In other words, creditors would likely sell their claims for cheap.
So what if he hedged his bets?
Claim jumpers
D’Origny had bought some Celsius bankruptcy claims with his own previous boutique fund, Arceau, but was relatively new to the space. And most investors he knew didn’t want to go near FTX—no one wanted to front the capital to start buying up these claims.
But within weeks of that day in Miami, d’Origny began using his own money to buy FTX positions for a few cents on the dollar from hedge funds under mandates to liquidate.
“There was no information whatsoever available on the bankruptcy. We took a big risk. I just put my money where my mouth is,” he told Fortune.
Trading bankruptcy claims is a high-risk, high-reward tactic. With the bankruptcies of Lehman Brothers, Enron, and General Motors, claims traders are believed to have made hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars picking clean the bones of those once-mammoth firms. But other times, claims end up worthless.
“It ended up being much better than I ever imagined,” he says.
When a company goes bust, creditors face a lengthy bankruptcy process in court, with no guarantee as to what percentage of a claim will be repaid. Instead, many opt to sell theirs immediately for cash to a buyer willing to risk the claim plummeting in value depending on how much the overseers of the bankruptcy are able to recover.
Calculating the exact timeline and value of claims traded since FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the District Court of Delaware on Nov. 11, 2022, is complicated. Some are traded on online platforms, while others trade hands privately, and buyers aren’t required to file the transfer immediately, creating a lag, while others simply report it as their own claim, traders in the space told Fortune.
Over $439 million worth of claims have been exchanged across 49 trades on the industry’s dominant online trading platform, Claims Market, as of March 28. Meanwhile, hedge funds have bought over $2.3 billion worth of steeply discounted claims, according to court records as of March 20.
While the exact date creditors will be repaid by the bankruptcy court remains undetermined, it now looks likely they could be fully remunerated. “It looks like customers will hopefully be paid in full,” Bankman-Fried told a Manhattan court at his sentencing on Thursday.
When claims were first awarded, creditors were giving them up for cheap. Over 60 claims valued at over $1 million have been traded on Claims Market—sold at roughly 10% of their value in November 2022 and now going for as much as 93%, indicative of growing confidence in repayment.
Meanwhile, others are estimating the claims could exceed their initial value and be worth closer to 120% to 140%, two people close to the sales told Fortune, due to the rising value of crypto and the sale of shares in the AI startup Anthropic for more than $880 million.
The process
The appointment of John J. Ray III as the FTX’s new CEO when bankruptcy was filed also raised interest in the claims, buyers told Fortune. “He immediately started a process by which he would sell everything that wasn’t nailed down to the floor, which institutional claim buyers love because they don’t want Bitcoin,” d’Origny explained.
FTX has recovered about $7 billion in assets so far, including from liquidated cryptocurrencies, 38 properties in the Bahamas, and $2.6 billion in cash, according to data in a presentation filed as part of its case.
The estate held about 59 million Solana tokens and 21,482 Bitcoins, and those have since gained some 1,000% and 343%, respectively, since the company filed for bankruptcy. FTX will sell 41 million Solana tokens, worth about $7.65 billion at the time of publication, to institutional investors at a 68% discount of its current market price. This has outraged some victims, including Sunil Kavuri, who criticized Bankman-Fried’s “continuous lie that we will all be made full” at his sentencing.
Chapter 11 filings, as of March 20, show d’Origny had bought about $29 million worth of claims. They were bought for $3.5 million with personal funds, he says: “A family office investment of me and some friends.” That’s a return of more than 700%.
D’Origny was with his family for Christmas when he bought his first claim. He recalls the worried faces of his onlooking parents, who teased him that the family might themselves go bankrupt by next Christmas as a result of his plan. Worth almost $3 million, a claim was exchanged on Dec. 28, 2022, for 6% of its value, according to the contract viewed by Fortune.
The buyers so far set to make the largest returns from FTX scraps are hedge funds specializing in distressed debt. As of March 20, Attestor, Baupost, and Farallon, which had each bought claims worth over $520 million, $518 million, and $346 million, respectively, are leading the race. The funds have used alternative entity names confirmed by people close to the matter.
Another big name in the space, and a friend of d’Origny, is Thomas Braziel, a bankruptcy claim broker at 117 Partners who buys claims on behalf of some of the largest hedge funds in the market. Braziel says his first trades were on Nov. 12, 2022, before the bankruptcy had been officially filed. He paid about $240,000 for an $8 million claim (about 3% of its stated value) and about $210,000 for a separate $3.5 million claim (6%).
‘Very, very scary’
The current valuations are a far cry from April 27 of last year when disaster nearly struck for the claims buyers.
On a Zoom call with debtors in Singapore, d’Origny was about to close a deal on a $3 million claim at 25%. While on the call, news broke that the Internal Revenue Service had filed a $44 billion claim against FTX alleging unpaid taxes.
“During that call, you know, we got spooked,” he says. But he decided to buy the claim regardless. “It was very, very scary.”
While the IRS reduced that claim to $20.4 billion, if unchallenged, it still would mean game over for creditors in such a scenario. “We’re getting zero,” d’Origny says.
However, FTX has entered into a legal battle over the claim, asking for a court dismissal: It would “threaten to halt the debtors’ progress and any distribution to customers and other creditors indefinitely.” In other words, as the claim would leave fraud victims out of pocket, it’s unlikely to materialize, sources told Fortune.
In July, FTX opened its own—somewhat clunky—public portal for customers to file claims. But in the early days of trading, there was limited information available on what assets could be liquidated or how claims would be validated. Many appeared crowdsourced from Twitter, with KYC conducted in a time-consuming and somewhat ad hoc manner, says d’Origny.
“It was really, really hard to buy claims,” says Braziel, who said he bought at least two or three claims that proved to be fraudulent.
Due to the pace it took d’Origny to authenticate claims, he bought 40 in his first year of trading. This gave him another idea: to speed up the due diligence process through automation. In December, he cofounded his own portal, FTX Creditor, which he describes as a “custom CRM, KYC, and diligence solution,” which has narrowed the authenticating process from days to 30 minutes, he says. The company now has 14 employees spanning continents, who take calls with creditors 24 hours a day.
Specializing in claims under $100,000, the company’s aim is to provide retail investors with an accessible way to close sales on a 30-minute call, to avoid locking them into lengthy trade confirmations.
Since December, FTX Creditor has bought nearly 1,000 claims worth roughly $100 million, public records show. Assuming a purchase price north of 70%, based on market estimates, that could mean a profit for the firm of about $30 million—a cut of which d’Origny presumably adds to what he pocketed buying his earliest claims.
The rising value of the claims has slowed trading a bit, d’Origny explained. Still, just this week, over $6 million worth were purchased on Claims Market, and Braziel is still buying claims at 70%, according to a contract seen by Fortune.
D’Origny is resolute about staying in the business of bankruptcy post-FTX, but once these claims are repaid, he’s first going on a vacation.
Did throwing his money behind these claims come down to calculated ingenuity? Perhaps. But in d’Origny’s eyes, the conditions that unfolded were merely serendipitous. He used a word very different from ingenious: “l(fā)uck.”