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投資大佬看多美股,稱牛市將再持續(xù)九年

WILL DANIEL
2024-04-18

美股在過(guò)去兩周半已經(jīng)下跌了約4%。

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2024年4月5日,紐約證券交易所內(nèi)的交易員。PHOTO BY SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES

隨著中東地區(qū)以色列和伊朗的沖突升級(jí),而且事實(shí)證明美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的通脹比預(yù)想的更難控制,至少到目前為止,美國(guó)股市終于停止了大幅上漲。從去年10月底到今年3月28日,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)暴漲超過(guò)27%,但在過(guò)去兩周半已經(jīng)下跌了約4%。

但投資管理與市場(chǎng)研究公司Main Street Research的創(chuàng)始人兼首席投資官詹姆斯·德默特認(rèn)為,這只是牛市的臨時(shí)盤(pán)整,在未來(lái)十年仍會(huì)給投資者帶來(lái)回報(bào)。Main Street Research管理的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模高達(dá)20億美元。

德默特在金融行業(yè)從業(yè)35年,曾出版過(guò)三本投資類圖書(shū),包括最近出版的《華爾街經(jīng)驗(yàn)》(Wall Street Lessons)。他解釋稱,他認(rèn)為美股連續(xù)近六個(gè)月上漲之后,“肯定會(huì)出現(xiàn)回調(diào)”,但這并不會(huì)改變他的長(zhǎng)期觀點(diǎn),即在未來(lái)幾年,人工智能會(huì)推動(dòng)收益增長(zhǎng)。

他通過(guò)電子郵件告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“雖然目前媒體報(bào)道的都是可怕的新聞,但我們認(rèn)為我們已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了在人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)下的新牛市,因此對(duì)于本次股市回調(diào),我們持買(mǎi)入態(tài)度。新牛市可能再持續(xù)七至九年,因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄茴A(yù)計(jì)將大幅提升各行各業(yè)的生產(chǎn)力,這將增加企業(yè)收益?!?/p>

人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)收益增長(zhǎng),直面地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

關(guān)于人工智能繁榮,大多數(shù)專業(yè)投資者從最開(kāi)始就在考慮一個(gè)主要問(wèn)題:近期人工智能的熱度是過(guò)度炒作還是合理現(xiàn)象?辯論雙方陣營(yíng)依舊有一些主流的聲音。

德默特認(rèn)為,未來(lái)幾年,人工智能的崛起將幫助推動(dòng)公司收益增長(zhǎng),投資者不應(yīng)該因?yàn)榻诘牡鼐壵物L(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題而錯(cuò)過(guò)良機(jī)。他認(rèn)為:“在這個(gè)令人激動(dòng)的由人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)的新商業(yè)周期,投資者必須避免沖動(dòng)和對(duì)中東沖突等事件作出過(guò)激反應(yīng),而是要制定耐心的、反應(yīng)積極的和機(jī)會(huì)主義的策略,以應(yīng)對(duì)這些事件。”

一些統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)證明人工智能具有削減成本和提高生產(chǎn)力的能力,德默特認(rèn)為這會(huì)增加公司的收益。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的研究顯示,未來(lái)十年,人工智能可使全球GDP增長(zhǎng)7萬(wàn)億美元。麥肯錫(McKinsey)發(fā)現(xiàn),生成式人工智能系統(tǒng)將使目前占用上班族70%的時(shí)間的任務(wù),完全自動(dòng)化。

從美國(guó)金融業(yè)巨頭到拉丁美洲電信公司,全世界的公司都在利用人工智能降低人工成本,提高生產(chǎn)力,尤其是在客戶服務(wù)和市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷(xiāo)方面。不只是大公司在努力抓住人工智能繁榮所帶來(lái)的機(jī)遇。以Batesville Tool & Die公司為例。該公司是來(lái)自印第安納州貝茨維爾的一家小型制造公司,主要生產(chǎn)精密金屬?zèng)_壓部件。據(jù)美聯(lián)社今年早些時(shí)候的報(bào)道,由于Batesville Tool & Die地處一個(gè)小城鎮(zhèn),因此多年來(lái)一直無(wú)法吸引人才,使公司出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題。于是,公司管理層決定投資可使用人工智能“看到”周?chē)氖澜绾湍7氯祟悊T工的機(jī)器人,不僅解決了人手不足的問(wèn)題,還提高了公司的生產(chǎn)力。

德默特和其他看好人工智能的投資者認(rèn)為,同樣的事情正在世界各地上演,而且這些創(chuàng)新在未來(lái)幾年將提高公司的收益。但這位資深投資者依舊警告,短期內(nèi)股市可能經(jīng)歷陣痛,尤其是如果中東局勢(shì)升級(jí),“該地區(qū)的其他勢(shì)力”卷入其中。他說(shuō)道:“股市回調(diào)的量級(jí)很大程度上取決于中東局勢(shì)和未來(lái)走向?!?他警告“當(dāng)前的緊張局勢(shì)一旦升級(jí),就會(huì)導(dǎo)致股市進(jìn)一步下跌”。

Bowersock Capital Partners公司CEO兼創(chuàng)始合伙人艾米莉·鮑爾索克·希爾本周也通過(guò)電子郵件對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示“地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)異常升高,而且風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能持續(xù)存在”。這意味著,投資者應(yīng)該保持警惕。盡管面臨中東戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的威脅,還有更高的通脹和更少的降息次數(shù),但她也相信牛市“不會(huì)受到影響”。而且對(duì)于希望抓住人工智能繁榮的投資者,Bowersock Hill提供了許多想法。

她說(shuō)道:“我們看好那些將從人工智能中受益,但股價(jià)尚未體現(xiàn)出相關(guān)長(zhǎng)期生產(chǎn)力增益的行業(yè),包括醫(yī)療保健和工業(yè)等。我們還看好科技行業(yè)內(nèi)能夠拓展或支持人工智能應(yīng)用的與人工智能關(guān)系密切的公司?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

隨著中東地區(qū)以色列和伊朗的沖突升級(jí),而且事實(shí)證明美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的通脹比預(yù)想的更難控制,至少到目前為止,美國(guó)股市終于停止了大幅上漲。從去年10月底到今年3月28日,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)暴漲超過(guò)27%,但在過(guò)去兩周半已經(jīng)下跌了約4%。

但投資管理與市場(chǎng)研究公司Main Street Research的創(chuàng)始人兼首席投資官詹姆斯·德默特認(rèn)為,這只是牛市的臨時(shí)盤(pán)整,在未來(lái)十年仍會(huì)給投資者帶來(lái)回報(bào)。Main Street Research管理的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模高達(dá)20億美元。

德默特在金融行業(yè)從業(yè)35年,曾出版過(guò)三本投資類圖書(shū),包括最近出版的《華爾街經(jīng)驗(yàn)》(Wall Street Lessons)。他解釋稱,他認(rèn)為美股連續(xù)近六個(gè)月上漲之后,“肯定會(huì)出現(xiàn)回調(diào)”,但這并不會(huì)改變他的長(zhǎng)期觀點(diǎn),即在未來(lái)幾年,人工智能會(huì)推動(dòng)收益增長(zhǎng)。

他通過(guò)電子郵件告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“雖然目前媒體報(bào)道的都是可怕的新聞,但我們認(rèn)為我們已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了在人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)下的新牛市,因此對(duì)于本次股市回調(diào),我們持買(mǎi)入態(tài)度。新牛市可能再持續(xù)七至九年,因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄茴A(yù)計(jì)將大幅提升各行各業(yè)的生產(chǎn)力,這將增加企業(yè)收益?!?/p>

人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)收益增長(zhǎng),直面地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

關(guān)于人工智能繁榮,大多數(shù)專業(yè)投資者從最開(kāi)始就在考慮一個(gè)主要問(wèn)題:近期人工智能的熱度是過(guò)度炒作還是合理現(xiàn)象?辯論雙方陣營(yíng)依舊有一些主流的聲音。

德默特認(rèn)為,未來(lái)幾年,人工智能的崛起將幫助推動(dòng)公司收益增長(zhǎng),投資者不應(yīng)該因?yàn)榻诘牡鼐壵物L(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題而錯(cuò)過(guò)良機(jī)。他認(rèn)為:“在這個(gè)令人激動(dòng)的由人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)的新商業(yè)周期,投資者必須避免沖動(dòng)和對(duì)中東沖突等事件作出過(guò)激反應(yīng),而是要制定耐心的、反應(yīng)積極的和機(jī)會(huì)主義的策略,以應(yīng)對(duì)這些事件?!?/p>

一些統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)證明人工智能具有削減成本和提高生產(chǎn)力的能力,德默特認(rèn)為這會(huì)增加公司的收益。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的研究顯示,未來(lái)十年,人工智能可使全球GDP增長(zhǎng)7萬(wàn)億美元。麥肯錫(McKinsey)發(fā)現(xiàn),生成式人工智能系統(tǒng)將使目前占用上班族70%的時(shí)間的任務(wù),完全自動(dòng)化。

從美國(guó)金融業(yè)巨頭到拉丁美洲電信公司,全世界的公司都在利用人工智能降低人工成本,提高生產(chǎn)力,尤其是在客戶服務(wù)和市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷(xiāo)方面。不只是大公司在努力抓住人工智能繁榮所帶來(lái)的機(jī)遇。以Batesville Tool & Die公司為例。該公司是來(lái)自印第安納州貝茨維爾的一家小型制造公司,主要生產(chǎn)精密金屬?zèng)_壓部件。據(jù)美聯(lián)社今年早些時(shí)候的報(bào)道,由于Batesville Tool & Die地處一個(gè)小城鎮(zhèn),因此多年來(lái)一直無(wú)法吸引人才,使公司出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題。于是,公司管理層決定投資可使用人工智能“看到”周?chē)氖澜绾湍7氯祟悊T工的機(jī)器人,不僅解決了人手不足的問(wèn)題,還提高了公司的生產(chǎn)力。

德默特和其他看好人工智能的投資者認(rèn)為,同樣的事情正在世界各地上演,而且這些創(chuàng)新在未來(lái)幾年將提高公司的收益。但這位資深投資者依舊警告,短期內(nèi)股市可能經(jīng)歷陣痛,尤其是如果中東局勢(shì)升級(jí),“該地區(qū)的其他勢(shì)力”卷入其中。他說(shuō)道:“股市回調(diào)的量級(jí)很大程度上取決于中東局勢(shì)和未來(lái)走向?!?他警告“當(dāng)前的緊張局勢(shì)一旦升級(jí),就會(huì)導(dǎo)致股市進(jìn)一步下跌”。

Bowersock Capital Partners公司CEO兼創(chuàng)始合伙人艾米莉·鮑爾索克·希爾本周也通過(guò)電子郵件對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示“地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)異常升高,而且風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能持續(xù)存在”。這意味著,投資者應(yīng)該保持警惕。盡管面臨中東戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的威脅,還有更高的通脹和更少的降息次數(shù),但她也相信牛市“不會(huì)受到影響”。而且對(duì)于希望抓住人工智能繁榮的投資者,Bowersock Hill提供了許多想法。

她說(shuō)道:“我們看好那些將從人工智能中受益,但股價(jià)尚未體現(xiàn)出相關(guān)長(zhǎng)期生產(chǎn)力增益的行業(yè),包括醫(yī)療保健和工業(yè)等。我們還看好科技行業(yè)內(nèi)能夠拓展或支持人工智能應(yīng)用的與人工智能關(guān)系密切的公司?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

With the conflict between Israel and Iran escalating in the Middle East, and inflation proving more difficult to tame than expected domestically, the stock market’s meteoric rise has finally been halted—at least for now. After surging more than 27% between the end of last October and March 28, the S&P 500 has dropped roughly 4% over the past two and a half weeks.

But this is just a temporary correction in a bull market that’s set to reward investors for nearly a decade, argues James Demmert, founder and chief investment officer of Main Street Research, an investment management and market research firm with $2 billion in assets under management.

Demmert, who has spent 35 years in the financial industry and authored three books on investing, including his most recent Wall Street Lessons, explained that he believes stocks were “due for a pullback” after rising in nearly a straight line for six months, but that doesn’t change his long-term thesis that AI will drive earnings growth for years to come.

“We are buyers of this stock market correction because while the headlines are scary right now, we believe we have entered a new bull market led by the power of artificial intelligence,” he told Fortune via email. “This new bull market can last for another seven to nine years, as AI is expected to drive significant productivity gains for companies across the board, which will strengthen corporate earnings.”

An AI-driven earnings boom—with geopolitical risks

When it comes to the AI boom, the main question for most professional investors has been clear from the start: Is the near-term hype overly enthusiastic, or is it warranted? And there are still leading voices on both sides of that debate.

Still, for Demmert, the rise of AI will help drive corporate earnings in the coming years—and investors shouldn’t miss out due to near-term geopolitical issues. “During this exciting new business cycle that will be driven by artificial intelligence, investors must avoid being impulsive and reactive to events such as the Mideast conflict and instead institute a strategy that is patient, responsive, and opportunistic as these types of events unfold,” he argued.

There are some statistics that back up the cost-cutting and productivity-enhancing abilities of AI that Demmert believes will lift corporate earnings. AI could increase global GDP by $7 trillion over the next decade, according to a study from Goldman Sachs. And McKinsey found that generative AI systems could eventually automate tasks that currently take up 70% of workers’ time on the job.

From U.S. financial giants to Latin American telecoms, companies worldwide are already using AI to reduce labor costs and improve productivity, particularly when it comes to customer service and marketing. But it’s not just major corporations that are taking advantage of the AI boom. Take the example of Batesville Tool & Die, a small manufacturing company in Batesville, Ind., that makes precision metal stamping components. As the Associated Press reported earlier this year, Batesville Tool & Die struggled to attract talent to its small town for years, leading to serious issues for the company. Then management decided to invest in a robot that used AI to “see” the world and mimic human workers, which ended the talent crunch and increased the company’s productivity.

Demmert and other AI bulls believe stories like this are happening all over the world, and those innovations will serve to boost corporate earnings for years to come. Still, the veteran investor warned that stocks may be in for some pain in the near term, particularly if tensions in the Middle East cascade and “other players in the region” get involved. “The magnitude of this stock market correction will depend in large part on what’s going on in the Middle East and how things play out from here,” he said, warning that “any escalation of the current tensions would likely cause a further drop in stocks.”

Emily Bowersock Hill, CEO and founding partner of Bowersock Capital Partners, also told Fortune via email this week that “geopolitical risks are unusually elevated and are likely to remain so.” Meaning: Investors should be cautious. But despite the threat of war in the Middle East—as well as higher inflation and fewer rate cuts—she, too, believes the bull market “remains intact.” And Bowersock Hill has a few ideas for investors looking to take advantage of the AI boom as well.

“We like sectors that will benefit from AI but have yet to price in the associated long-term productivity gains, including health care and industrials,” she said. “We also like AI-adjacent names within the technology sector that magnify or enable AI’s use.”

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