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美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)陷入衰退

ALENA BOTROS
2024-04-21

美房地產(chǎn)陷入停滯

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Redfin首席執(zhí)行官格林·凱爾曼,拍攝于2015年。

格林·凱爾曼是Redfin的首席執(zhí)行官。該公司自稱是一家科技驅(qū)動(dòng)的房地產(chǎn)公司,提供現(xiàn)代的房屋買賣方式。他掌舵該公司近二十年,但無(wú)論是在全球金融危機(jī)期間還是現(xiàn)在,他都沒(méi)有失去熱情;他說(shuō)自己是全世界最幸運(yùn)的人。

這絕非易事。在疫情及其帶來(lái)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)繁榮期間,Redfin股價(jià)達(dá)到每股超過(guò)95美元的高點(diǎn),但之后卻持續(xù)下跌,降至約5.50美元。公司面臨困境;去年?duì)I收下滑,并進(jìn)行了裁員。不只Redfin面臨困境;房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)整體上都受到了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的影響。凱爾曼對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“可悲的是我們失去了40%的員工。我個(gè)人要對(duì)此負(fù)責(zé)。雖然事實(shí)上我并沒(méi)有簽署他們的入職邀請(qǐng),但精神上我卻是簽字人。我卻沒(méi)有把公司發(fā)展到能讓他們有足夠多業(yè)務(wù)的程度……當(dāng)美國(guó)待售房屋的數(shù)量從600萬(wàn)套降至400萬(wàn)套時(shí),局面變得有些艱難?!?/p>

去年,美國(guó)現(xiàn)房銷量降至近30年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)陷入停滯,剛剛開(kāi)始有好轉(zhuǎn)的跡象。抵押貸款利率達(dá)到20多年來(lái)的最高水平,雖然后來(lái)有所下降,但與疫情之前相比依舊較高。在過(guò)去一周左右的時(shí)間里,抵押貸款利率再次大幅上漲,達(dá)到幾個(gè)月來(lái)最高的7.50%。房?jī)r(jià)同樣居高不下。凱爾曼說(shuō)道:“買房成本再次上漲,而且房?jī)r(jià)始終沒(méi)有下降。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一直試圖用加息控制通脹,但至少有一個(gè)行業(yè)難以控制,它就是房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)?!?/p>

他說(shuō)道,這令人感到焦慮。住房是基本需求,去年觀望的潛在購(gòu)房人已經(jīng)厭倦了等待。凱爾曼說(shuō)道,推遲成家和人生大事的千禧一代,不能繼續(xù)等待下去。他從未遇到過(guò)這種情形,稱這是對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)“最糟糕的局面”。他說(shuō)道:“房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)陷入衰退,而其他經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域卻一片繁榮?!?/p>

他繼續(xù)說(shuō)道:“我在全球金融危機(jī)期間就擔(dān)任CEO。當(dāng)時(shí)銷量下滑,房?jī)r(jià)也在下跌?!眲P爾曼表示,一個(gè)問(wèn)題解決了,可以連帶解決另外一個(gè)問(wèn)題。通常當(dāng)銷量下滑時(shí),房?jī)r(jià)就會(huì)隨之下跌,然后銷量會(huì)恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng),這是一個(gè)循環(huán)周期。房?jī)r(jià)再次變得可以承受,而銷量因此上漲。但當(dāng)前的情況卻截然不同。利率上漲,而且按照他的說(shuō)法銷量暴跌,但房?jī)r(jià)并沒(méi)有隨之下降。他說(shuō)道:“某些方面只是30年抵押貸款的產(chǎn)物。”美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)所作的一切對(duì)業(yè)主沒(méi)有實(shí)際影響,只是讓他們保持現(xiàn)狀。凱爾曼解釋稱:“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的行動(dòng)實(shí)際上起到了維持高房?jī)r(jià)的反作用?!?/p>

他不確定到今年年底抵押貸款利率是否還會(huì)大幅上漲;根據(jù)通脹狀況利率甚至可能下跌。他認(rèn)為房屋銷量會(huì)有所回升,而且銷量已經(jīng)超出了他的預(yù)期。他表示,這是因?yàn)槿藗冃枰孔印百I房并非一時(shí)的狂熱”,而是一種“深層次的人類需求,你需要有一棟房子建立家庭。”房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的問(wèn)題不只是最近的可負(fù)擔(dān)性危機(jī),更大的問(wèn)題是房屋建設(shè)。

凱爾曼說(shuō)道:“一直以來(lái),房?jī)r(jià)不斷上漲,而資金成本卻在下降?!边h(yuǎn)程辦公這個(gè)疫情的產(chǎn)物,讓人們可以搬去任何心儀的地方。他表示,加州人搬去了德克薩斯和佛羅里達(dá),但所有緩沖都已不復(fù)存在。想搬家的人已經(jīng)完成了搬遷,而且資金成本上漲。解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題唯一的辦法就是建房。

他說(shuō)道:“美國(guó)夢(mèng)的基礎(chǔ)就是美國(guó)擁有比歐洲更廣闊的土地。美國(guó)政府一直積極與建筑商合作,建造更多住宅。”但隨著一系列法律的出臺(tái),這種情況終于發(fā)生了變化。凱爾曼認(rèn)為這些法律的出發(fā)點(diǎn)是好的,目的是保護(hù)環(huán)境,并讓人們對(duì)社區(qū)中建造的房屋類型有更多控制權(quán)。但這些法律造成的反噬,使建房變得更加困難。他說(shuō)道:“無(wú)論左派還是右派都很難解決可負(fù)擔(dān)性危機(jī)?!?/p>

凱爾曼認(rèn)為,加州可能是解決危機(jī)的“原點(diǎn)”。多年來(lái),由于政策失效和不受約束的地方控制,加州的房地產(chǎn)危機(jī)日益加劇。雖然加州制定了多項(xiàng)旨在修改地方土地使用法規(guī)的倡議,但每次均以失敗告終。但這些倡議最終取得了成功。凱爾曼認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)令人鼓舞的跡象,由于一些亟待解決的問(wèn)題,各級(jí)政府終于開(kāi)始討論房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的危機(jī)。他說(shuō)道:“拜登政府需要為千禧一代解決的一個(gè)基本問(wèn)題是,當(dāng)你住在父母家的地下室里時(shí),你會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)感到多樂(lè)觀?

“如果我們?cè)诠矆?chǎng)合赤身裸體,我們就無(wú)所畏懼”

除了可負(fù)擔(dān)性危機(jī)外,還有一件事對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)造成了沖擊:美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會(huì)(National Association of Realtors)4.18億美元的和解。凱爾曼說(shuō)道:“美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會(huì)不得不選擇和解,因?yàn)榘讣<捌渖?。密蘇里州案件的每一次判決都對(duì)其不利,而且這成為其他法院效仿的先例,因此它們不得不選擇和解?!?/p>

Redfin采取的傭金模式一直不同于行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),而且低于行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),因此目前尚無(wú)法確定該公司會(huì)因?yàn)榇舜魏徒庾龀瞿男└淖儭KJ(rèn)為,“房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的定價(jià)不透明”,可能是阻礙人們?cè)赗edfin上買賣房屋的因素。

他說(shuō)道:“作為一家公司,令我們倍感挫敗的是,正常情況下,如果你以更低成本提供更優(yōu)質(zhì)的服務(wù),你的客戶應(yīng)該絡(luò)繹不絕。Redfin從白手起家發(fā)展到十億美元的規(guī)模,就是基于這個(gè)前提。我以為,如果消費(fèi)者以價(jià)值為驅(qū)動(dòng),我們本可以增長(zhǎng)得更多……購(gòu)房人越清晰地了解我們提供的服務(wù)的價(jià)值,我們的銷售額就會(huì)越高。”

即便如此,凱爾曼表示,他不確定房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是否會(huì)在此次和解之后受到影響。傭金標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的變化似乎會(huì)讓賣房人受益;但它并不會(huì)改善住宅的可負(fù)擔(dān)性。他并非要以任何方式為此次和解背書(shū),因?yàn)橐环矫?,此次和解仍需要獲得批準(zhǔn),而且無(wú)法確認(rèn)事情后續(xù)的進(jìn)展。當(dāng)然,Redfin自己也面臨傭金訴訟。他并沒(méi)有透露自己是否擔(dān)心這些訴訟;但他表示,公司處于有利的地位,而且公司存在18年的唯一目的就是為客戶提供更好的交易。他說(shuō)道:“如果全世界更了解Redfin,如果我們?cè)诠矆?chǎng)合赤身裸體,我們就無(wú)所畏懼。”

Kelman持有Redfin 2%的股份,他是公司薪酬最低的高管。他的現(xiàn)金年薪為30萬(wàn)美元,而且他向公司提出,只有公司的凈收入為正,即公司在支付支出后實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利,他才會(huì)領(lǐng)取獎(jiǎng)金,過(guò)去三年公司均未達(dá)到這個(gè)條件。這并不常見(jiàn)。

他說(shuō)道:“董事會(huì)每天都會(huì)問(wèn)我這個(gè)問(wèn)題。我真不知道該如何回答。我感覺(jué)這家公司已經(jīng)讓我獲得了豐厚回報(bào)。能經(jīng)營(yíng)這家公司,我就是世界上最幸運(yùn)的人。美國(guó)的問(wèn)題在于,太多資本家實(shí)際上都在從事某種形式的掠奪行為。而我知道領(lǐng)導(dǎo)公司的唯一方式就是以身作則。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Redfin首席執(zhí)行官格林·凱爾曼,拍攝于2015年。

格林·凱爾曼是Redfin的首席執(zhí)行官。該公司自稱是一家科技驅(qū)動(dòng)的房地產(chǎn)公司,提供現(xiàn)代的房屋買賣方式。他掌舵該公司近二十年,但無(wú)論是在全球金融危機(jī)期間還是現(xiàn)在,他都沒(méi)有失去熱情;他說(shuō)自己是全世界最幸運(yùn)的人。

這絕非易事。在疫情及其帶來(lái)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)繁榮期間,Redfin股價(jià)達(dá)到每股超過(guò)95美元的高點(diǎn),但之后卻持續(xù)下跌,降至約5.50美元。公司面臨困境;去年?duì)I收下滑,并進(jìn)行了裁員。不只Redfin面臨困境;房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)整體上都受到了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的影響。凱爾曼對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“可悲的是我們失去了40%的員工。我個(gè)人要對(duì)此負(fù)責(zé)。雖然事實(shí)上我并沒(méi)有簽署他們的入職邀請(qǐng),但精神上我卻是簽字人。我卻沒(méi)有把公司發(fā)展到能讓他們有足夠多業(yè)務(wù)的程度……當(dāng)美國(guó)待售房屋的數(shù)量從600萬(wàn)套降至400萬(wàn)套時(shí),局面變得有些艱難?!?/p>

去年,美國(guó)現(xiàn)房銷量降至近30年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)陷入停滯,剛剛開(kāi)始有好轉(zhuǎn)的跡象。抵押貸款利率達(dá)到20多年來(lái)的最高水平,雖然后來(lái)有所下降,但與疫情之前相比依舊較高。在過(guò)去一周左右的時(shí)間里,抵押貸款利率再次大幅上漲,達(dá)到幾個(gè)月來(lái)最高的7.50%。房?jī)r(jià)同樣居高不下。凱爾曼說(shuō)道:“買房成本再次上漲,而且房?jī)r(jià)始終沒(méi)有下降。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一直試圖用加息控制通脹,但至少有一個(gè)行業(yè)難以控制,它就是房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)?!?/p>

他說(shuō)道,這令人感到焦慮。住房是基本需求,去年觀望的潛在購(gòu)房人已經(jīng)厭倦了等待。凱爾曼說(shuō)道,推遲成家和人生大事的千禧一代,不能繼續(xù)等待下去。他從未遇到過(guò)這種情形,稱這是對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)“最糟糕的局面”。他說(shuō)道:“房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)陷入衰退,而其他經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域卻一片繁榮?!?/p>

他繼續(xù)說(shuō)道:“我在全球金融危機(jī)期間就擔(dān)任CEO。當(dāng)時(shí)銷量下滑,房?jī)r(jià)也在下跌?!眲P爾曼表示,一個(gè)問(wèn)題解決了,可以連帶解決另外一個(gè)問(wèn)題。通常當(dāng)銷量下滑時(shí),房?jī)r(jià)就會(huì)隨之下跌,然后銷量會(huì)恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng),這是一個(gè)循環(huán)周期。房?jī)r(jià)再次變得可以承受,而銷量因此上漲。但當(dāng)前的情況卻截然不同。利率上漲,而且按照他的說(shuō)法銷量暴跌,但房?jī)r(jià)并沒(méi)有隨之下降。他說(shuō)道:“某些方面只是30年抵押貸款的產(chǎn)物?!泵缆?lián)儲(chǔ)所作的一切對(duì)業(yè)主沒(méi)有實(shí)際影響,只是讓他們保持現(xiàn)狀。凱爾曼解釋稱:“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的行動(dòng)實(shí)際上起到了維持高房?jī)r(jià)的反作用?!?/p>

他不確定到今年年底抵押貸款利率是否還會(huì)大幅上漲;根據(jù)通脹狀況利率甚至可能下跌。他認(rèn)為房屋銷量會(huì)有所回升,而且銷量已經(jīng)超出了他的預(yù)期。他表示,這是因?yàn)槿藗冃枰孔印百I房并非一時(shí)的狂熱”,而是一種“深層次的人類需求,你需要有一棟房子建立家庭?!狈康禺a(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的問(wèn)題不只是最近的可負(fù)擔(dān)性危機(jī),更大的問(wèn)題是房屋建設(shè)。

凱爾曼說(shuō)道:“一直以來(lái),房?jī)r(jià)不斷上漲,而資金成本卻在下降?!边h(yuǎn)程辦公這個(gè)疫情的產(chǎn)物,讓人們可以搬去任何心儀的地方。他表示,加州人搬去了德克薩斯和佛羅里達(dá),但所有緩沖都已不復(fù)存在。想搬家的人已經(jīng)完成了搬遷,而且資金成本上漲。解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題唯一的辦法就是建房。

他說(shuō)道:“美國(guó)夢(mèng)的基礎(chǔ)就是美國(guó)擁有比歐洲更廣闊的土地。美國(guó)政府一直積極與建筑商合作,建造更多住宅?!钡S著一系列法律的出臺(tái),這種情況終于發(fā)生了變化。凱爾曼認(rèn)為這些法律的出發(fā)點(diǎn)是好的,目的是保護(hù)環(huán)境,并讓人們對(duì)社區(qū)中建造的房屋類型有更多控制權(quán)。但這些法律造成的反噬,使建房變得更加困難。他說(shuō)道:“無(wú)論左派還是右派都很難解決可負(fù)擔(dān)性危機(jī)?!?/p>

凱爾曼認(rèn)為,加州可能是解決危機(jī)的“原點(diǎn)”。多年來(lái),由于政策失效和不受約束的地方控制,加州的房地產(chǎn)危機(jī)日益加劇。雖然加州制定了多項(xiàng)旨在修改地方土地使用法規(guī)的倡議,但每次均以失敗告終。但這些倡議最終取得了成功。凱爾曼認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)令人鼓舞的跡象,由于一些亟待解決的問(wèn)題,各級(jí)政府終于開(kāi)始討論房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的危機(jī)。他說(shuō)道:“拜登政府需要為千禧一代解決的一個(gè)基本問(wèn)題是,當(dāng)你住在父母家的地下室里時(shí),你會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)感到多樂(lè)觀?

“如果我們?cè)诠矆?chǎng)合赤身裸體,我們就無(wú)所畏懼”

除了可負(fù)擔(dān)性危機(jī)外,還有一件事對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)造成了沖擊:美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會(huì)(National Association of Realtors)4.18億美元的和解。凱爾曼說(shuō)道:“美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會(huì)不得不選擇和解,因?yàn)榘讣<捌渖?。密蘇里州案件的每一次判決都對(duì)其不利,而且這成為其他法院效仿的先例,因此它們不得不選擇和解?!?/p>

Redfin采取的傭金模式一直不同于行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),而且低于行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),因此目前尚無(wú)法確定該公司會(huì)因?yàn)榇舜魏徒庾龀瞿男└淖?。他認(rèn)為,“房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的定價(jià)不透明”,可能是阻礙人們?cè)赗edfin上買賣房屋的因素。

他說(shuō)道:“作為一家公司,令我們倍感挫敗的是,正常情況下,如果你以更低成本提供更優(yōu)質(zhì)的服務(wù),你的客戶應(yīng)該絡(luò)繹不絕。Redfin從白手起家發(fā)展到十億美元的規(guī)模,就是基于這個(gè)前提。我以為,如果消費(fèi)者以價(jià)值為驅(qū)動(dòng),我們本可以增長(zhǎng)得更多……購(gòu)房人越清晰地了解我們提供的服務(wù)的價(jià)值,我們的銷售額就會(huì)越高。”

即便如此,凱爾曼表示,他不確定房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是否會(huì)在此次和解之后受到影響。傭金標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的變化似乎會(huì)讓賣房人受益;但它并不會(huì)改善住宅的可負(fù)擔(dān)性。他并非要以任何方式為此次和解背書(shū),因?yàn)橐环矫妫舜魏徒馊孕枰@得批準(zhǔn),而且無(wú)法確認(rèn)事情后續(xù)的進(jìn)展。當(dāng)然,Redfin自己也面臨傭金訴訟。他并沒(méi)有透露自己是否擔(dān)心這些訴訟;但他表示,公司處于有利的地位,而且公司存在18年的唯一目的就是為客戶提供更好的交易。他說(shuō)道:“如果全世界更了解Redfin,如果我們?cè)诠矆?chǎng)合赤身裸體,我們就無(wú)所畏懼?!?/p>

Kelman持有Redfin 2%的股份,他是公司薪酬最低的高管。他的現(xiàn)金年薪為30萬(wàn)美元,而且他向公司提出,只有公司的凈收入為正,即公司在支付支出后實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利,他才會(huì)領(lǐng)取獎(jiǎng)金,過(guò)去三年公司均未達(dá)到這個(gè)條件。這并不常見(jiàn)。

他說(shuō)道:“董事會(huì)每天都會(huì)問(wèn)我這個(gè)問(wèn)題。我真不知道該如何回答。我感覺(jué)這家公司已經(jīng)讓我獲得了豐厚回報(bào)。能經(jīng)營(yíng)這家公司,我就是世界上最幸運(yùn)的人。美國(guó)的問(wèn)題在于,太多資本家實(shí)際上都在從事某種形式的掠奪行為。而我知道領(lǐng)導(dǎo)公司的唯一方式就是以身作則。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Glenn Kelman, chief executive officer of Redfin, in 2015.

CHRIS GOODNEY—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES

Glenn Kelman is the chief executive of Redfin, a self-described technology-powered real estate company, a modern way to buy and sell homes. He’s been at the helm for almost two decades and doesn’t seem to have lost his zeal, not during the Great Financial Crisis, not now; he calls himself the luckiest person in the world.

It can’t be easy. Redfin stock reached a high of more than $95 per share during the pandemic and its corresponding housing boom, but it’s trended downward ever since, landing at around $5.50. It’s been a rough ride; revenue dropped last year, and agents were cut. It goes beyond Redfin; all of the housing world suffered as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. “Losing 40% of our agents is a tragedy,” Kelman told Fortune. “I feel personally responsible for it. I was the one who signed their offer letters in spirit, if not, in fact. And I failed to grow the business to the extent that we could keep them all busy … It’s just hard when the number of homes sold in the United States drops from 6 million to 4 million.”

Last year, existing home sales fell to their lowest point in almost 30 years. The housing market froze, and it’s only just begun to thaw. Mortgage rates were the highest they’ve been in more than 20 years, and they’ve come down since, but are still high compared with those of the pandemic. In the past week or so, mortgage rates surged again, reaching their highest level in months, 7.50%. Home prices are high, too. “The cost of buying a home has gone up again, and prices haven’t come down,” Kelman said. “So the Fed keeps trying to tame inflation with rate increases, but at least one sector is untamable, and that is housing.”

It’s anxiety-inducing, he said. Housing is a basic need, and would-be buyers who held out last year are tired of waiting. Millennials who’ve delayed starting a family, putting off plans, can only wait so long, Kelman said. He’s never seen anything like it, calling it the “worst situation” for the housing market. “Housing is in this recession, and the rest of the economy is booming,” he said.

“I was the CEO during the Great Financial Crisis,” he continued. “Sales volume went down but prices did, too.” One problem fixed another, Kelman said. Usually when sales decline, prices drop too, and then sales increase later—that’s the cycle, he said. Homes become affordable again, and sales pick up because of it. This situation is very different. Interest rates are up, and sales volume has fallen through the floor, as he put it, but home prices haven’t followed. “Some of that is just this artifact of 30-year mortgages,” he said. Everything the Federal Reserve is doing has no real effect on homeowners, apart from keeping them where they are. “It actually has the perverse effect of keeping home prices high,” Kelman explained.

He doesn’t know that mortgage rates will go up significantly through the end of this year; they could even come down, depending on inflation. He thinks sales will improve, and they’ve already been better than he’s expected. That’s because people need homes—it’s not a “fad to own a house,” and there’s a “deep-seated human need to own a home, where you’re going to raise your family,” he said. Still, the problem goes beyond the latest spell of unaffordability, and has more to do with building homes.

“For the longest time, housing was getting very expensive, but money was getting cheaper,” Kelman said, and a product of the pandemic made it so people could move anywhere they wanted: remote work. Californians became Texans and Floridians, but all the buffers are gone, he said. The people who were going to move already have, and money isn’t cheap anymore. The only way to solve the problem is by building homes.

“The basis of the American dream was that there was more land here than there was in Europe,” he said. “And for the longest time, the government was very aggressive, working with builders to create more housing.” But eventually that changed, with what Kelman called well-meaning laws to protect the environment and give people more control over what kind of housing was built in their neighborhoods. That backfired, and it became much harder to build anything. “The left, as well as the right, have really struggled to solve the affordability crisis,” he said.

California is probably ground zero, Kelman said. For years, its housing crisis worsened because of policy failures and unfettered local control. Initiatives were drawn up to change local regulations surrounding land use, and they failed time and time again. But finally, they didn’t. Kelman said it’s an encouraging sign, and finally people are talking about housing at all levels of government because something needs to be done. “Biden’s basic problem with millennials is how optimistic can you be about the economy from your parents’ basement?” Kelman said.

‘If we were completely undressed in public, we would have nothing to fear’

Apart from deteriorated affordability, there’s another thing that’s rocked the housing world: the National Association of Realtors’ $418 million settlement. “NAR had to settle—it was existential,” Kelman said. “Every judgment in the Missouri case had gone against them, and that was a precedent that other courts would follow, so they had to.”

Redfin’s commissions model has always been different from, and lower than, the industry standard, so it’s not clear what will change at the company. The “opacity of pricing in the real estate industry,” he suggested, might have actually kept people from selling and buying with Redfin.

“Our great frustration as a business has been normally, when you offer better service for less money, the world beats a path to your door,” he said. “And Redfin has grown from zero to a billion dollars on that premise. And yet, I think we could have grown more if consumers were value driven … The more clearly buyers understand the value of what we offer, the more sales we’ll get.”

Even so, Kelman said he doesn’t know that the housing market will be affected following the settlement. If anything, the change in commissions seems to benefit sellers; it won’t make housing more affordable. He’s not endorsing the settlement by any means, because for one, it still needs to be approved—and there’s no way to know for sure how everything will shake out. Of course, Redfin is facing its own commissions lawsuits. He wouldn’t comment on whether he’s at all worried; instead he said the company was in a good position and that its sole existence for 18 years has been to give people a better deal. “If the world knew more about Redfin, if we were completely undressed in public, we would have nothing to fear,” he said.

While Kelman holds a 2% stake in Redfin, he is the lowest paid person on his executive team. He takes home $300,000 a year in a cash salary, and requests that he only get a bonus if positive net income is achieved, basically if the company makes money after paying expenses, which it hasn’t in the past three years. It’s not often you see that.

“My board asks me that question every year,” he said. “I don’t really know what to say. I feel like I’ve made a king’s ransom off this company. I’m the luckiest person in the world to be able to run it, and what’s wrong with America is that so many capitalists are really engaged in a form of plunder. And I don’t know how to lead except by example.”

財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)為財(cái)富媒體知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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