對(duì)于幾乎所有業(yè)務(wù)來說,天氣都是至關(guān)重要的。如果沒有雪,滑雪度假村就得關(guān)門歇業(yè)。大雨會(huì)勸退前往餐廳和零售店的人流。熱浪會(huì)迫使電力公司爭(zhēng)相尋找電力來源,為其客戶的空調(diào)提供電力。氣候變化讓上述很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更加突出,不過對(duì)華爾街而言,有天氣風(fēng)險(xiǎn),就有錢可賺。
2023年對(duì)于所謂的天氣衍生品來說是突破性的一年,這類小眾資產(chǎn)類別可以讓投資者押注天氣,包括下雨、日曬和氣溫。在經(jīng)歷了數(shù)年的緩慢增長(zhǎng)之后,2023年天氣衍生品交易量的漲幅超過了250%,規(guī)模達(dá)到了約250億美元。
行業(yè)刊物《Artemis》的創(chuàng)始人史蒂夫·埃文斯對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“借助這類工具,人們能夠管理業(yè)務(wù)內(nèi)部的波動(dòng)性。天氣衍生品大賣的另一個(gè)原因在于人們?cè)桨l(fā)關(guān)注氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)……人們只不過在前一段時(shí)間停止使用[這種工具]。我覺得它只是又回歸了人們的視野。”
天氣衍生品是相對(duì)簡(jiǎn)單的金融工具。兩方在接洽后就一系列指標(biāo)達(dá)成一致意見,例如具體的降雨量或某個(gè)溫度持續(xù)特定的天數(shù)。如果降雨量超過或天氣溫度超過合約范圍,那么一方就會(huì)拿到錢,反之亦然。各大交易所,主要是芝加哥商品交易所(Chicago Mercantile Exchange),允許交易員之間購(gòu)買和銷售合約。
確實(shí),意識(shí)到天氣衍生品作用的首個(gè)參與者之一是2001年破產(chǎn)的能源巨頭安然(Enron)。安然的業(yè)務(wù)嚴(yán)重依賴于天氣,比如,公司在天氣炎熱時(shí)的電力支出要高得多,因?yàn)榭蛻粽於荚陂_空調(diào)。安然意識(shí)到自己可以通過購(gòu)買天氣衍生品,對(duì)沖其中的一些損失,因?yàn)橐坏囟瘸^某個(gè)水平,那么衍生品就能夠獲得回報(bào)。
埃文斯表示:“安然是首批天氣交易機(jī)構(gòu)之一,這些機(jī)構(gòu)最終發(fā)現(xiàn),可以通過一種明智的方式來對(duì)沖影響業(yè)務(wù)的溫度波動(dòng)性,尤其是能源業(yè)務(wù)?!?/p>
2008年之后,天氣衍生品交易額出現(xiàn)暴跌,該市場(chǎng)在去年大幅增長(zhǎng)之前基本上沒有什么起色。增長(zhǎng)的部分原因源于新參與者的推動(dòng):天氣衍生合約不僅僅只是適用于能源公司和大型機(jī)構(gòu)參與者。埃文斯表示,很多小型企業(yè)都通過購(gòu)買保單間接參與了天氣衍生品,因?yàn)檫@些承保公司會(huì)購(gòu)買天氣衍生品合約。隨著市場(chǎng)的擴(kuò)張,事實(shí)證明它對(duì)小企業(yè)也有很大的吸引力。
“我已經(jīng)看到有公司購(gòu)買雪天衍生品,因?yàn)橐坏┫麓笱?,它們就得清理其設(shè)施的積雪?!卑N乃拐f,“我曾經(jīng)看到一家珠寶公司購(gòu)買了這類衍生品,是一種保險(xiǎn),但其背后由衍生品作為支撐。這是因?yàn)椋绻鞖獠缓?,或遇到暴雨,那么[客流量]就會(huì)減少?!?/p>
天氣衍生品與巨災(zāi)債券有一些相似之處,這是另一款去年在華爾街大賣的天氣相關(guān)資產(chǎn)類別。然而,盡管巨災(zāi)債券關(guān)聯(lián)的是大規(guī)模嚴(yán)重自然災(zāi)害,例如地震和颶風(fēng),但天氣衍生品的范圍通常包括更常見的小規(guī)模自然事件,比如下雨或氣溫。
此類產(chǎn)品交易量增長(zhǎng)的主要推手是尋求對(duì)沖其天氣風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的公司,而不是尋求賺錢機(jī)會(huì)的對(duì)沖基金或交易機(jī)構(gòu)。各大公司對(duì)于應(yīng)對(duì)氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越發(fā)濃厚的興趣,以及最近通過的美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)(SEC)強(qiáng)制提升氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)披露力度的規(guī)定,都將企業(yè)推向了這個(gè)不斷增長(zhǎng)的領(lǐng)域。
埃文斯說:“這些工具可被用作確保公司營(yíng)收和業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)營(yíng)的穩(wěn)定性。從這個(gè)角度來講,它們是首席財(cái)務(wù)官和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理者的最愛?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
對(duì)于幾乎所有業(yè)務(wù)來說,天氣都是至關(guān)重要的。如果沒有雪,滑雪度假村就得關(guān)門歇業(yè)。大雨會(huì)勸退前往餐廳和零售店的人流。熱浪會(huì)迫使電力公司爭(zhēng)相尋找電力來源,為其客戶的空調(diào)提供電力。氣候變化讓上述很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更加突出,不過對(duì)華爾街而言,有天氣風(fēng)險(xiǎn),就有錢可賺。
2023年對(duì)于所謂的天氣衍生品來說是突破性的一年,這類小眾資產(chǎn)類別可以讓投資者押注天氣,包括下雨、日曬和氣溫。在經(jīng)歷了數(shù)年的緩慢增長(zhǎng)之后,2023年天氣衍生品交易量的漲幅超過了250%,規(guī)模達(dá)到了約250億美元。
行業(yè)刊物《Artemis》的創(chuàng)始人史蒂夫·埃文斯對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“借助這類工具,人們能夠管理業(yè)務(wù)內(nèi)部的波動(dòng)性。天氣衍生品大賣的另一個(gè)原因在于人們?cè)桨l(fā)關(guān)注氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)……人們只不過在前一段時(shí)間停止使用[這種工具]。我覺得它只是又回歸了人們的視野?!?/p>
天氣衍生品是相對(duì)簡(jiǎn)單的金融工具。兩方在接洽后就一系列指標(biāo)達(dá)成一致意見,例如具體的降雨量或某個(gè)溫度持續(xù)特定的天數(shù)。如果降雨量超過或天氣溫度超過合約范圍,那么一方就會(huì)拿到錢,反之亦然。各大交易所,主要是芝加哥商品交易所(Chicago Mercantile Exchange),允許交易員之間購(gòu)買和銷售合約。
確實(shí),意識(shí)到天氣衍生品作用的首個(gè)參與者之一是2001年破產(chǎn)的能源巨頭安然(Enron)。安然的業(yè)務(wù)嚴(yán)重依賴于天氣,比如,公司在天氣炎熱時(shí)的電力支出要高得多,因?yàn)榭蛻粽於荚陂_空調(diào)。安然意識(shí)到自己可以通過購(gòu)買天氣衍生品,對(duì)沖其中的一些損失,因?yàn)橐坏囟瘸^某個(gè)水平,那么衍生品就能夠獲得回報(bào)。
埃文斯表示:“安然是首批天氣交易機(jī)構(gòu)之一,這些機(jī)構(gòu)最終發(fā)現(xiàn),可以通過一種明智的方式來對(duì)沖影響業(yè)務(wù)的溫度波動(dòng)性,尤其是能源業(yè)務(wù)?!?/p>
2008年之后,天氣衍生品交易額出現(xiàn)暴跌,該市場(chǎng)在去年大幅增長(zhǎng)之前基本上沒有什么起色。增長(zhǎng)的部分原因源于新參與者的推動(dòng):天氣衍生合約不僅僅只是適用于能源公司和大型機(jī)構(gòu)參與者。埃文斯表示,很多小型企業(yè)都通過購(gòu)買保單間接參與了天氣衍生品,因?yàn)檫@些承保公司會(huì)購(gòu)買天氣衍生品合約。隨著市場(chǎng)的擴(kuò)張,事實(shí)證明它對(duì)小企業(yè)也有很大的吸引力。
“我已經(jīng)看到有公司購(gòu)買雪天衍生品,因?yàn)橐坏┫麓笱?,它們就得清理其設(shè)施的積雪?!卑N乃拐f,“我曾經(jīng)看到一家珠寶公司購(gòu)買了這類衍生品,是一種保險(xiǎn),但其背后由衍生品作為支撐。這是因?yàn)?,如果天氣不好,或遇到暴雨,那么[客流量]就會(huì)減少?!?/p>
天氣衍生品與巨災(zāi)債券有一些相似之處,這是另一款去年在華爾街大賣的天氣相關(guān)資產(chǎn)類別。然而,盡管巨災(zāi)債券關(guān)聯(lián)的是大規(guī)模嚴(yán)重自然災(zāi)害,例如地震和颶風(fēng),但天氣衍生品的范圍通常包括更常見的小規(guī)模自然事件,比如下雨或氣溫。
此類產(chǎn)品交易量增長(zhǎng)的主要推手是尋求對(duì)沖其天氣風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的公司,而不是尋求賺錢機(jī)會(huì)的對(duì)沖基金或交易機(jī)構(gòu)。各大公司對(duì)于應(yīng)對(duì)氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越發(fā)濃厚的興趣,以及最近通過的美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)(SEC)強(qiáng)制提升氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)披露力度的規(guī)定,都將企業(yè)推向了這個(gè)不斷增長(zhǎng)的領(lǐng)域。
埃文斯說:“這些工具可被用作確保公司營(yíng)收和業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)營(yíng)的穩(wěn)定性。從這個(gè)角度來講,它們是首席財(cái)務(wù)官和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理者的最愛?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
Weather matters for almost any business. Ski resorts don’t have much to offer without snow. Heavy rain cuts down on foot traffic for restaurants and retail stores. Heat waves can send power companies scrambling to source energy for their customers’ air-conditioning units. Climate change has made many of these risks more pronounced—and on Wall Street, weather risks mean a chance at financial rewards.
2023 was a breakout year for so-called weather derivatives, a niche asset class that allows investors to bet on meteorological conditions including rain, sun, and temperature. After years of slow growth, trading volumes spiked over 250% in 2023, to an estimated $25 billion.
“This is a tool that people can use to manage volatility within their business,” Steve Evans, founder of industry publication Artemis, told Fortune. “Part of that is also the growing focus on climate risk… People just stopped using [these tools] for a while. And I think it’s just come back.”
Weather derivatives are relatively simple financial instruments. Two parties get together and agree on a set of parameters—say, a specific amount of rainfall or a number of consecutive days over a certain temperature. If it rains more or stays hotter than the parameters of the contract, one side gets paid, and vice versa. Exchanges, primarily the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, allow traders to buy and sell the contracts with each other.
Indeed, one of the first players to recognize the power of weather derivatives was Enron, the energy giant that collapsed in 2001. Enron’s business was heavily dependent on the weather—for example, it spent much more on power during heat waves because customers were running air-conditioning units all day. Enron realized that it could hedge against some of those losses by buying weather derivatives that would pay out if the temperature hit a certain level.
“Enron was one of the very first weather desks that effectively found that there was a smart way to hedge temperature variability that was affecting businesses, especially energy businesses,” Evans said.
After a post-2008 collapse in weather derivatives trading volumes, the market roughly flatlined over the past decade before a huge spike last year. Part of the increase was driven by new players: Weather derivatives contracts aren’t just for energy firms and big institutional players. Many smaller businesses are indirectly involved with weather derivatives through insurance policies underwritten by insurance companies that buy up contracts, Evans said. And as the market expands, it’s proving attractive to Main Street businesses too.
“I’ve seen companies buy derivatives against snowfall, because if there is a heavy snowfall, they’ve got to clear the snow from their facilities,” Evans said. “I’ve seen a jewelry company buy it—it was insurance, but it was backed by derivatives. And that was because if there was bad weather or lots of rainfall, then they wouldn’t get much [foot traffic.]”
Weather derivatives share some qualities with catastrophe bonds, another weather-linked asset class that exploded on Wall Street last year. But while catastrophe bonds are tied to massive, severe natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes, weather derivatives’ parameters generally include more common, small-scale events such as rainfall or temperature.
The boom in trading volume is largely driven by companies seeking to hedge their weather exposure, not hedge funds or trading desks looking for profit. Heightened interest in how companies are dealing with climate risks, as well as?recently passed SEC rules mandating greater climate disclosures, are driving businesses to the growing sector.
“These are tools that can be used to smooth revenues, smooth business operations. CFOs love them, as well as risk managers, in that respect,” Evans said.