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最新數(shù)據(jù):美國(guó)富人和年輕人均對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)感到樂觀

PAOLO CONFINO
2024-06-01

美國(guó)消費(fèi)者對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的信心三個(gè)月來首次上升,其中這兩個(gè)矛盾群體信心最高。

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美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)諮商會(huì)的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,年輕人和年收入超過10萬美元的群體對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)高度樂觀,提振了消費(fèi)者信心。ALEKSANDAR NAKIC

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)諮商會(huì)(Conference Board)的月度報(bào)告顯示,美國(guó)消費(fèi)者對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的信心三個(gè)月來首次上升。有兩個(gè)相互矛盾的群體的信心水平最高:一個(gè)群體不容易受到經(jīng)濟(jì)焦慮的影響,而另一個(gè)群體則往往是經(jīng)濟(jì)焦慮的典型代表。

根據(jù)半年平均值,年收入超過10萬美元的富裕人士和35歲以下的年輕人的消費(fèi)者信心最高。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)諮商會(huì)高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯蒂芬妮·吉夏爾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,富裕家庭信心增強(qiáng)可歸因于股市繁榮。而對(duì)于年輕人而言,鑒于最近幾個(gè)月全美各地的消費(fèi)者對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)持負(fù)面看法,因此在經(jīng)濟(jì)咨商會(huì)的調(diào)查中年輕人普遍較高的消費(fèi)者信心水平顯得更加重要。

即使在經(jīng)濟(jì)諮商會(huì)周二的報(bào)告中整體消費(fèi)者信心有所回升,但仍處于2021年以來的最低水平。然而,從許多指標(biāo)來看,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況良好,肯定好于2021年至2022年疫情引發(fā)的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期。通脹率比2022年6月的高點(diǎn)有所回落。當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)采取措施降低通脹時(shí),失業(yè)率并沒有像往常一樣飆升。在就業(yè)市場(chǎng)上,工資水平仍然相對(duì)較高。

消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)承認(rèn)現(xiàn)在的情況比疫情期間有所好轉(zhuǎn),但他們?nèi)匀浑y以看到困擾他們?nèi)粘I畹纳畛杀締栴}得到有效改善。通脹率有所下降,但還沒有恢復(fù)到可控的水平,因?yàn)槭称冯s貨店的價(jià)格仍然讓顧客大跌眼鏡。抵押貸款利率高得令人望而卻步,上個(gè)月達(dá)到了7%,使許多人無法擁有自己的住房。

吉夏爾認(rèn)為,富人信心增強(qiáng)可歸因于股市。吉夏爾表示:“4月份股市下跌,我們看到高收入人群的信心也隨之下降。本月股市反彈,這個(gè)群體的消費(fèi)者信心強(qiáng)勁反彈?!?/p>

較富裕群體往往有更多資金被捆綁在市場(chǎng)化投資和金融工具上,這意味著股票價(jià)格的任何變化都會(huì)對(duì)他們的個(gè)人財(cái)務(wù)狀況產(chǎn)生重大影響。今年年初的一份報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),美國(guó)前10%的家庭擁有93%的股票和共同基金。

如果說富裕階層信心增長(zhǎng)的原因是顯而易見的,那么年輕人信心增長(zhǎng)的原因仍是個(gè)謎。吉夏爾提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,自2023年5月以來,年輕消費(fèi)者的信心持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。吉夏爾在接受采訪時(shí)表示,除了“非常罕見的情況”外,自1996年以來情況一直如此。

但這些發(fā)現(xiàn)似乎與其他研究的結(jié)果背道而馳。咨詢公司德勤(Deloitte)的一份報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),Z世代和千禧一代最關(guān)心的問題是當(dāng)前的生活成本。這兩個(gè)群體對(duì)于這一問題或其他任何經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)的改善都缺乏信心。根據(jù)德勤的調(diào)查,只有32%的Z世代和31%的千禧一代表示他們預(yù)計(jì)“整體經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)會(huì)有所好轉(zhuǎn)”。面對(duì)如此嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性,一些千禧一代感到沮喪。即使是能夠更冷靜地面對(duì)當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的人,也會(huì)覺得靠辛苦工作就能換來安居樂業(yè)的“美國(guó)夢(mèng)”,只是一個(gè)虛假的承諾。

吉夏爾認(rèn)為,尚不清楚35歲以下的一些人對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)有信心的確切原因。其他研究指出了一些可能性。有一種解釋是,當(dāng)千禧一代得到父母經(jīng)濟(jì)上的幫助時(shí),他們往往對(duì)自己的財(cái)務(wù)狀況感覺更好。千禧一代還將從財(cái)富大轉(zhuǎn)移中受益,他們的嬰兒潮一代父母將為他們留下數(shù)目可觀的遺產(chǎn)。這兩種情況都會(huì)讓年輕人立即獲得大量現(xiàn)金,但這并不是一種可復(fù)制的經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)。

另一個(gè)原因是就業(yè)市場(chǎng)依然強(qiáng)勁。失業(yè)率僅為3.9%,而且多年來,招聘崗位的數(shù)量一直多于可填補(bǔ)這些崗位的人數(shù)。這一切意味著,盡管年輕上班族還處于職業(yè)發(fā)展的初期,但他們也能感覺自己在職業(yè)上取得了些許進(jìn)步。吉夏爾表示,如果有關(guān)就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的任何樂觀數(shù)據(jù)出現(xiàn)變化,年輕人可能就會(huì)開始對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)感到不滿。

一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè),這種情況將在今年晚些時(shí)候發(fā)生,可能會(huì)讓看似永遠(yuǎn)自信滿滿的年輕消費(fèi)者都感到失望。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)諮商會(huì)的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,年輕人和年收入超過10萬美元的群體對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)高度樂觀,提振了消費(fèi)者信心。ALEKSANDAR NAKIC

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)諮商會(huì)(Conference Board)的月度報(bào)告顯示,美國(guó)消費(fèi)者對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的信心三個(gè)月來首次上升。有兩個(gè)相互矛盾的群體的信心水平最高:一個(gè)群體不容易受到經(jīng)濟(jì)焦慮的影響,而另一個(gè)群體則往往是經(jīng)濟(jì)焦慮的典型代表。

根據(jù)半年平均值,年收入超過10萬美元的富裕人士和35歲以下的年輕人的消費(fèi)者信心最高。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)諮商會(huì)高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯蒂芬妮·吉夏爾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,富裕家庭信心增強(qiáng)可歸因于股市繁榮。而對(duì)于年輕人而言,鑒于最近幾個(gè)月全美各地的消費(fèi)者對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)持負(fù)面看法,因此在經(jīng)濟(jì)咨商會(huì)的調(diào)查中年輕人普遍較高的消費(fèi)者信心水平顯得更加重要。

即使在經(jīng)濟(jì)諮商會(huì)周二的報(bào)告中整體消費(fèi)者信心有所回升,但仍處于2021年以來的最低水平。然而,從許多指標(biāo)來看,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況良好,肯定好于2021年至2022年疫情引發(fā)的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期。通脹率比2022年6月的高點(diǎn)有所回落。當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)采取措施降低通脹時(shí),失業(yè)率并沒有像往常一樣飆升。在就業(yè)市場(chǎng)上,工資水平仍然相對(duì)較高。

消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)承認(rèn)現(xiàn)在的情況比疫情期間有所好轉(zhuǎn),但他們?nèi)匀浑y以看到困擾他們?nèi)粘I畹纳畛杀締栴}得到有效改善。通脹率有所下降,但還沒有恢復(fù)到可控的水平,因?yàn)槭称冯s貨店的價(jià)格仍然讓顧客大跌眼鏡。抵押貸款利率高得令人望而卻步,上個(gè)月達(dá)到了7%,使許多人無法擁有自己的住房。

吉夏爾認(rèn)為,富人信心增強(qiáng)可歸因于股市。吉夏爾表示:“4月份股市下跌,我們看到高收入人群的信心也隨之下降。本月股市反彈,這個(gè)群體的消費(fèi)者信心強(qiáng)勁反彈?!?/p>

較富裕群體往往有更多資金被捆綁在市場(chǎng)化投資和金融工具上,這意味著股票價(jià)格的任何變化都會(huì)對(duì)他們的個(gè)人財(cái)務(wù)狀況產(chǎn)生重大影響。今年年初的一份報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),美國(guó)前10%的家庭擁有93%的股票和共同基金。

如果說富裕階層信心增長(zhǎng)的原因是顯而易見的,那么年輕人信心增長(zhǎng)的原因仍是個(gè)謎。吉夏爾提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,自2023年5月以來,年輕消費(fèi)者的信心持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。吉夏爾在接受采訪時(shí)表示,除了“非常罕見的情況”外,自1996年以來情況一直如此。

但這些發(fā)現(xiàn)似乎與其他研究的結(jié)果背道而馳。咨詢公司德勤(Deloitte)的一份報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),Z世代和千禧一代最關(guān)心的問題是當(dāng)前的生活成本。這兩個(gè)群體對(duì)于這一問題或其他任何經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)的改善都缺乏信心。根據(jù)德勤的調(diào)查,只有32%的Z世代和31%的千禧一代表示他們預(yù)計(jì)“整體經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)會(huì)有所好轉(zhuǎn)”。面對(duì)如此嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性,一些千禧一代感到沮喪。即使是能夠更冷靜地面對(duì)當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的人,也會(huì)覺得靠辛苦工作就能換來安居樂業(yè)的“美國(guó)夢(mèng)”,只是一個(gè)虛假的承諾。

吉夏爾認(rèn)為,尚不清楚35歲以下的一些人對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)有信心的確切原因。其他研究指出了一些可能性。有一種解釋是,當(dāng)千禧一代得到父母經(jīng)濟(jì)上的幫助時(shí),他們往往對(duì)自己的財(cái)務(wù)狀況感覺更好。千禧一代還將從財(cái)富大轉(zhuǎn)移中受益,他們的嬰兒潮一代父母將為他們留下數(shù)目可觀的遺產(chǎn)。這兩種情況都會(huì)讓年輕人立即獲得大量現(xiàn)金,但這并不是一種可復(fù)制的經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)。

另一個(gè)原因是就業(yè)市場(chǎng)依然強(qiáng)勁。失業(yè)率僅為3.9%,而且多年來,招聘崗位的數(shù)量一直多于可填補(bǔ)這些崗位的人數(shù)。這一切意味著,盡管年輕上班族還處于職業(yè)發(fā)展的初期,但他們也能感覺自己在職業(yè)上取得了些許進(jìn)步。吉夏爾表示,如果有關(guān)就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的任何樂觀數(shù)據(jù)出現(xiàn)變化,年輕人可能就會(huì)開始對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)感到不滿。

一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè),這種情況將在今年晚些時(shí)候發(fā)生,可能會(huì)讓看似永遠(yuǎn)自信滿滿的年輕消費(fèi)者都感到失望。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

For the first time in three months, consumer confidence in the economy rose, according to the Conference Board’s monthly report. Two paradoxical groups emerged with the highest levels of confidence: One that’s prone to being insulated from economic anxieties. And a second that is often the poster child for them.

Both wealthy individuals making more than $100,000 a year, and young people, defined as those under the age of 35, had the highest degrees of consumer confidence, according to the six-month average. The increase in confidence for wealthier households can be explained by a booming stock market, Conference Board senior economist Stephanie Guichard told Fortune. While for young people the high levels of consumer confidence are common in the Conference Board’s survey have taken on renewed importance given that in recent months consumers across the country have had a largely negative view of the economy lately.

Even after the Conference Board’s uptick in Tuesday’s report, overall consumer confidence is at some of the lowest levels since 2021. And yet, by many metrics the economy is in good condition—certainly better than it was during the pandemic-induced slump of 2021 to 2022. Inflation has come down since the highs of June 2022. The unemployment rate didn’t soar as is customary when the Federal Reserve takes measures to lower inflation. And within the job market, wages are still relatively high.

Consumers might acknowledge things are better than they were during the pandemic, but they still struggle to see meaningful progress on the cost-of-living struggles that plague their everyday lives. Inflation has come down, but isn’t back to manageable levels, as grocery store prices still induce sticker shock for customers. Mortgage rates have become prohibitively high—reaching 7% last month — putting homeownership out of reach for many.

Rising confidence for the wealthy can be attributed to the stock market, according to Guichard. “In April the stock market went down, and we saw high income confidence going down,” Guichard said. “This month the stock market rebounded, and we saw strong rebounding consumer confidence.”

Wealthier people often have more money tied up in market-based investments and instruments, meaning that any change to equity prices can have a major effect on their personal finances. Early this year a report found that the top 10% of households owned 93% of stocks and mutual funds.

If the explanation for why the confidence levels of the affluent grew was clearly identifiable, the reason why young people did remains a mystery. Data provided by Guichard shows that’s been the case since May 2023. And in an interview Guichard said that except for “very rare occasions” that’s been the case since 1996.

But those findings seem to fly in the face of other research. A report from consulting firm Deloitte found the top concerns for both Gen Z and millennials was the current cost of living. Both cohorts had little confidence that or any other economic challenge would improve. Only 32% of Gen Z said they expected the “overall economic situation will improve,” while 31% of millennials said the same, according to Deloitte’s research. Some millennials faced such deep levels of economic uncertainty it was making them depressed. Even those who handled the situation with a cooler head were left feeling like the American Dream—hard work paying off with a life of financial security—had been a false promise.

For Guichard, the exact reason for why some of those under 35 are so confident in the economy is unclear. Other research points to some possibilities. One explanation is that millennials tend to feel better about their finances when they get financial help from their parents. Millennials also stand to benefit from the great wealth transfer, where their boomer parents will leave them sizable inheritances. Both of those would give young people an immediate influx of cash, but that’s hardly a replicable economic trend.

Another explanation is that the job market remains strong. The unemployment rate is just 3.9% and there’s been more open jobs than workers to fill them for years now. All that means even young workers, at the early stages of their careers, feel like they’re able to have some modicum of professional advancement. If any of the promising data points about the job market were to sour then young people might start to sour on the economy, Guichard says.

Based on some economists project that will happen later this year, which could disappoint even the seemingly perpetually confident young consumers.

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