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近年來,超高回報(bào)和人工智能的承諾吸引了投資者還有“僵尸股”投機(jī)者紛紛入市。不過債券市場(chǎng)里情況完全不同。
2008年金融危機(jī)后和新冠疫情期間,有近十年時(shí)間美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一直保持接近零利率,2022年3月開始大幅加息以對(duì)抗通脹。由于債券價(jià)格和收益率(隨美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)基金利率變化)之間呈反比,固定收益市場(chǎng)陷入痛苦的熊市。
距債券市場(chǎng)上一次創(chuàng)歷史新高已經(jīng)46個(gè)月,彭博綜合債券指數(shù)(Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index)比2020年7月的峰值下跌了約50%。但隨著債券終于能提供穩(wěn)健的收益率,一些全球頂級(jí)固定收益投資者認(rèn)為,這是二三十年里最適合投資債券的時(shí)機(jī)。
“現(xiàn)在這個(gè)入市時(shí)間點(diǎn)吸引力非常非常大,”全球資產(chǎn)管理公司Nuveen的固定收益首席投資官安德斯·佩爾松最近在一次采訪中告訴《財(cái)富》雜志?!拔业囊馑际?,基本上來說當(dāng)前收益率超過15年來最有吸引力的水平。”
貝萊德(BlackRock)全球固定收益首席投資官兼資產(chǎn)配置團(tuán)隊(duì)負(fù)責(zé)人瑞克·里德爾指出,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息本質(zhì)上“讓固定收益重獲收益”。
“現(xiàn)在可以創(chuàng)建收益率接近7%,波動(dòng)性相當(dāng)溫和的投資組合。已經(jīng)有幾十年做不到了,”上個(gè)月他接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示。
投資者鎖定收益率后,如果今年晚些時(shí)候或明年美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開始降息,債券價(jià)格也可能上漲。債市專家表示,現(xiàn)在是穩(wěn)定收入和價(jià)格升值相結(jié)合的黃金機(jī)會(huì)。
債券投資者為何看好
佩爾松和里德爾管理的資產(chǎn)約達(dá)2.8萬億美元,比NBA所有球隊(duì)加起來總價(jià)值還要高23倍。盡管PIMCO聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼“債券大王”比爾·格羅斯警告稱,如果不降息以提振價(jià)格,債券市場(chǎng)投資者將只是“剪息票”,也就是靠收益率收取利息收入,然而兩人都很看好債券。
因?yàn)楹芏嗉?xì)分行業(yè)的折扣都很誘人。
“更廣泛的固定收益6%左右,優(yōu)先股收益7%,高收益8%,還有優(yōu)先貸款收益近10%,從歷史的角度來看,真算得上非常有吸引力的入門水平,”Nuveen的佩爾松強(qiáng)調(diào)。
他補(bǔ)充道,從歷史上看,固定收益投資者未來的總回報(bào)率與開始投資時(shí)的收益率之間高度相關(guān)。在這一點(diǎn)上,紐約大學(xué)斯特恩商學(xué)院(NYU Stern)的年度回報(bào)圖顯示,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息周期達(dá)到峰值后(即收益率高時(shí)),債券回報(bào)往往能跑贏其他資產(chǎn)。
例如,1981年時(shí)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席保羅·沃爾克為對(duì)抗失控的通脹將利率提高到19%的峰值后,公司債券連續(xù)五年為投資者提供的收益率超過15%,五年中有三年表現(xiàn)比股票強(qiáng)。
里德爾還表示,債券價(jià)格有較大升值潛力,因?yàn)橐坏?shù)據(jù)最終證實(shí)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已戰(zhàn)勝通脹,就可能迎來降息。
佩爾松預(yù)計(jì)今年會(huì)有一兩次降息,他表示,如果經(jīng)濟(jì)開始崩潰,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將不得不積極降息?!叭缓髸?huì)得到投資總回報(bào),或資本增值,”他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志并補(bǔ)充道,“多數(shù)情況下,未來12個(gè)月有望獲得相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)的回報(bào)?!?/p>
還有證據(jù)表明,即便利率維持現(xiàn)狀,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)維持目前的觀望模式比預(yù)期中更久,債券仍可能跑贏其他資產(chǎn)。去年夏天LPL Financial首席固定收益策略師勞倫斯·吉勒姆發(fā)給客戶的一份報(bào)告中指出,在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)歷史上暫停加息期間,彭博綜合債券指數(shù)往往表現(xiàn)良好。
“1984年以來,一旦美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)停止加息,核心債券的6個(gè)月和1年平均收益率分別為8%和13%。此外,各期限債券在6個(gè)月、1年和3年內(nèi)均為正收益,”他寫道。
在里德爾看來,這就是當(dāng)前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)按兵不動(dòng),對(duì)固定收益投資者來說是“宜居帶”的原因之一?!坝捎谕浵鄬?duì)穩(wěn)定,現(xiàn)在可以按較低價(jià)格買入信貸資產(chǎn),簡(jiǎn)直是天賜良機(jī),”他解釋道。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
近年來,超高回報(bào)和人工智能的承諾吸引了投資者還有“僵尸股”投機(jī)者紛紛入市。不過債券市場(chǎng)里情況完全不同。
2008年金融危機(jī)后和新冠疫情期間,有近十年時(shí)間美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一直保持接近零利率,2022年3月開始大幅加息以對(duì)抗通脹。由于債券價(jià)格和收益率(隨美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)基金利率變化)之間呈反比,固定收益市場(chǎng)陷入痛苦的熊市。
距債券市場(chǎng)上一次創(chuàng)歷史新高已經(jīng)46個(gè)月,彭博綜合債券指數(shù)(Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index)比2020年7月的峰值下跌了約50%。但隨著債券終于能提供穩(wěn)健的收益率,一些全球頂級(jí)固定收益投資者認(rèn)為,這是二三十年里最適合投資債券的時(shí)機(jī)。
“現(xiàn)在這個(gè)入市時(shí)間點(diǎn)吸引力非常非常大,”全球資產(chǎn)管理公司Nuveen的固定收益首席投資官安德斯·佩爾松最近在一次采訪中告訴《財(cái)富》雜志?!拔业囊馑际?,基本上來說當(dāng)前收益率超過15年來最有吸引力的水平?!?/p>
貝萊德(BlackRock)全球固定收益首席投資官兼資產(chǎn)配置團(tuán)隊(duì)負(fù)責(zé)人瑞克·里德爾指出,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息本質(zhì)上“讓固定收益重獲收益”。
“現(xiàn)在可以創(chuàng)建收益率接近7%,波動(dòng)性相當(dāng)溫和的投資組合。已經(jīng)有幾十年做不到了,”上個(gè)月他接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示。
投資者鎖定收益率后,如果今年晚些時(shí)候或明年美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開始降息,債券價(jià)格也可能上漲。債市專家表示,現(xiàn)在是穩(wěn)定收入和價(jià)格升值相結(jié)合的黃金機(jī)會(huì)。
債券投資者為何看好
佩爾松和里德爾管理的資產(chǎn)約達(dá)2.8萬億美元,比NBA所有球隊(duì)加起來總價(jià)值還要高23倍。盡管PIMCO聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼“債券大王”比爾·格羅斯警告稱,如果不降息以提振價(jià)格,債券市場(chǎng)投資者將只是“剪息票”,也就是靠收益率收取利息收入,然而兩人都很看好債券。
因?yàn)楹芏嗉?xì)分行業(yè)的折扣都很誘人。
“更廣泛的固定收益6%左右,優(yōu)先股收益7%,高收益8%,還有優(yōu)先貸款收益近10%,從歷史的角度來看,真算得上非常有吸引力的入門水平,”Nuveen的佩爾松強(qiáng)調(diào)。
他補(bǔ)充道,從歷史上看,固定收益投資者未來的總回報(bào)率與開始投資時(shí)的收益率之間高度相關(guān)。在這一點(diǎn)上,紐約大學(xué)斯特恩商學(xué)院(NYU Stern)的年度回報(bào)圖顯示,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息周期達(dá)到峰值后(即收益率高時(shí)),債券回報(bào)往往能跑贏其他資產(chǎn)。
例如,1981年時(shí)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席保羅·沃爾克為對(duì)抗失控的通脹將利率提高到19%的峰值后,公司債券連續(xù)五年為投資者提供的收益率超過15%,五年中有三年表現(xiàn)比股票強(qiáng)。
里德爾還表示,債券價(jià)格有較大升值潛力,因?yàn)橐坏?shù)據(jù)最終證實(shí)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已戰(zhàn)勝通脹,就可能迎來降息。
佩爾松預(yù)計(jì)今年會(huì)有一兩次降息,他表示,如果經(jīng)濟(jì)開始崩潰,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將不得不積極降息?!叭缓髸?huì)得到投資總回報(bào),或資本增值,”他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志并補(bǔ)充道,“多數(shù)情況下,未來12個(gè)月有望獲得相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)的回報(bào)?!?/p>
還有證據(jù)表明,即便利率維持現(xiàn)狀,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)維持目前的觀望模式比預(yù)期中更久,債券仍可能跑贏其他資產(chǎn)。去年夏天LPL Financial首席固定收益策略師勞倫斯·吉勒姆發(fā)給客戶的一份報(bào)告中指出,在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)歷史上暫停加息期間,彭博綜合債券指數(shù)往往表現(xiàn)良好。
“1984年以來,一旦美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)停止加息,核心債券的6個(gè)月和1年平均收益率分別為8%和13%。此外,各期限債券在6個(gè)月、1年和3年內(nèi)均為正收益,”他寫道。
在里德爾看來,這就是當(dāng)前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)按兵不動(dòng),對(duì)固定收益投資者來說是“宜居帶”的原因之一。“由于通脹相對(duì)穩(wěn)定,現(xiàn)在可以按較低價(jià)格買入信貸資產(chǎn),簡(jiǎn)直是天賜良機(jī),”他解釋道。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
Supercharged returns and the promise of AI have drawn investors—and meme-stock speculators—to equity markets in recent years. But it’s been a very different story for the bond market.
After keeping interest rates near zero for almost a decade after the Great Financial Crisis and again during the COVID era, the Federal Reserve began aggressive rate hikes to fight inflation in March 2022. That led to a painful fixed-income bear market due to the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields (which move with the Fed funds rate).
It’s now been 46 months since the bond market last reached a record high, and the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index is down roughly 50% from that July 2020 peak. But with bonds finally offering solid yields, some of the world’s top fixed-income investors believe this is the best time in a generation to get into bonds.
“The entry point is just very, very attractive,” Anders Persson, CIO of fixed income at the global asset manager Nuveen, told Fortune in a recent interview. “I mean, basically, yields, as you know well, are the most attractive that we’ve seen in 15 plus years.”
As Rick Rieder, global CIO of fixed income and head of the asset allocation team at BlackRock, noted, the Fed’s rate hikes have essentially “put the fixed back into fixed income.”
“You can create a portfolio with a close to 7% yield with volatility that’s pretty moderate. It’s been decades since you’ve been able to do that,” he told Fortune last month.
After investors lock in those yields, bond prices could also rally when the Fed starts cutting rates later this year or next. It’s a golden opportunity for a mix of steady income and price appreciation, according to these bond market gurus.
Why the bond investors are bullish
Persson and Rieder—who are collectively responsible for roughly $2.8 trillion in assets, or about 23 times more than the value of every NBA team put together—are bullish on bonds even as PIMCO co-founder and “bond king” Bill Gross has cautioned that without rate cuts to boost prices, bond market investors will merely be “clipping coupons,” or collecting interest income from yields.
Those coupons are quite juicy in many sub sectors.
“When you’re looking at 6% or so for broader fixed income, 7% for preferred, 8% for high yield, and almost 10% for senior loans, those entry levels are really, really attractive from a historic basis,” Nuveen’s Persson emphasized.
He added that, historically, there’s a high correlation between future total returns for fixed-income investors and how high yields were when they began investing. To that point, NYU Stern’s annual return chart shows that bonds tend to outperform after peaks in the Fed’s hiking cycles (i.e. when yields are high).
Corporate bonds, for example, offered 15%-plus returns to investors for five straight years after then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker famously raised interest rates to a peak of 19% in 1981 to fight runaway inflation. And they outperformed stocks three out of five of those years as well.
Rieder also said there’s serious price appreciation potential in bonds because rate cuts are likely on the way once data eventually confirms the Fed has defeated inflation.
Persson, who is forecasting one or two rate cuts this year, said that if the economy starts to crack, the Fed will have to cut aggressively. “And then you get the total return aspect, or the capital appreciation side, of that investment,” he told Fortune, adding that “in most scenarios, you’re seeing a pretty healthy return potential here over the next 12 months.”
There is also evidence that bonds could still outperform even if interest rates stay where they are, with the Fed maintaining its current wait-and-see mode for longer than expected. In a note to clients last summer, LPL Financial’s chief fixed income strategist, Lawrence Gillum, noted that the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index has performed well during periods when the Fed has paused its rate hikes historically.
“Since 1984, core bonds were able to generate average 6-month and 1-year returns of 8% and 13%, respectively, after the Fed stopped raising rates. Moreover, all periods generated positive returns over the 6-month, 1-year, and 3-year horizons,” he wrote.
For Rieder, that’s one reason why the current environment, where the Fed is stuck in a holding pattern, is a Goldilocks zone for fixed income investors. “You have this incredible gift, because inflation is staying where it is, we’re getting to buy credit assets cheaper than we should be,” he explained.