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賣(mài)房人準(zhǔn)備賣(mài)房,但購(gòu)房人猶豫不決

ALENA BOTROS
2024-06-23

業(yè)主準(zhǔn)備賣(mài)房。

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《財(cái)富》雜志曾經(jīng)形容疫情期間歷史性的低抵押貸款利率是福禍相依。能夠享受到低于市場(chǎng)水平的利率當(dāng)然是好事,尤其是當(dāng)兩者相差巨大時(shí),但這也會(huì)讓你被鎖定;除非你別無(wú)選擇,否則你不太可能為了7%的利率而放棄3%的抵押貸款利率。

這種現(xiàn)象被稱為“鎖定效應(yīng)”,而在過(guò)去的一年里,這種效應(yīng)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了微妙的緩解跡象。去年,因?yàn)闆](méi)有人出售或購(gòu)買(mǎi)房屋,現(xiàn)房銷(xiāo)售跌至近三十年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。但賣(mài)房人似乎終于做好了準(zhǔn)備;唯一的問(wèn)題是,購(gòu)房人是否同樣積極。Zillow首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯凱拉·奧爾森在昨天發(fā)布的月度房地產(chǎn)報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道:“賣(mài)房人正在重返市場(chǎng),但購(gòu)房人卻變得猶豫不決。”

奧爾森重申:“賣(mài)房人開(kāi)始積極賣(mài)房,但購(gòu)房人卻并沒(méi)有這么熱情?!钡覀?nèi)绾蔚弥u(mài)房市場(chǎng)正在復(fù)蘇? 5月份新掛牌房源增長(zhǎng)了約8%,與去年同期相比增長(zhǎng)了近13%。奧爾森寫(xiě)道:“盡管大多數(shù)未償還抵押貸款的利率遠(yuǎn)低于當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)利率,隨著時(shí)間的推移,業(yè)主繼續(xù)持有現(xiàn)有住宅和低利率抵押貸款的‘利率鎖定’效應(yīng)似乎正在減弱?!?/p>

但5月份的房屋銷(xiāo)量依舊不及去年;根據(jù)Zillow的數(shù)據(jù),5月銷(xiāo)量同比下降了6%。另外,根據(jù)Redfin今天發(fā)布的一份分析報(bào)告,待售房屋銷(xiāo)量比去年同期下降了3.5%,這是三個(gè)多月以來(lái)的最大降幅,其購(gòu)房者需求指數(shù)也下降了18%(自2月份以來(lái)的最低值),該指數(shù)考慮了看房要求和對(duì)Redfin中介提供的其他服務(wù)的要求。

奧爾森表示,無(wú)論如何,銷(xiāo)量下降在一定程度上有助于補(bǔ)充房屋庫(kù)存:待售房屋數(shù)量比去年同期增長(zhǎng)了22%(去年同期的待售房屋數(shù)量接近歷史最低點(diǎn)),總房屋庫(kù)存也達(dá)到了三年來(lái)的最小缺口,根據(jù)Zillow的數(shù)據(jù),這基本上意味著總庫(kù)存量比疫情之前低約34%,仍有巨大差距。

上個(gè)月的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)并不激烈,因此房?jī)r(jià)升值有所放緩。4月,房?jī)r(jià)同比上漲4.4%,但5月僅上漲了3.9%(環(huán)比漲幅同樣有所下降)。房屋漲價(jià)速度放緩對(duì)想買(mǎi)房的人來(lái)說(shuō)是件好事,但房?jī)r(jià)依舊比疫情之前上漲了45%。

奧爾森寫(xiě)道:“Zillow的市場(chǎng)熱度指數(shù)顯示,美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)對(duì)購(gòu)房人越來(lái)越友好,正朝著‘中性’的方向發(fā)展,但賣(mài)房人仍略占優(yōu)勢(shì)。在美國(guó)50個(gè)最大的都市區(qū)中,水牛城、哈特福德和圣何塞對(duì)賣(mài)房人最有利。而新奧爾良、邁阿密、杰克遜維爾和孟菲斯則對(duì)購(gòu)房人更有利,這些市場(chǎng)中的購(gòu)房人有更好的談判籌碼?!痹谌婪秶鷥?nèi),將近四分之一的待售房屋降價(jià),這是過(guò)去六年來(lái)降價(jià)房源比例最大的一次。

總而言之,對(duì)于想買(mǎi)房的人來(lái)說(shuō),當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)狀況大不相同,成本也更高。根據(jù)Zillow的數(shù)據(jù),按月計(jì)算,50個(gè)大都市區(qū)的房?jī)r(jià)都在上漲,按年計(jì)算,46個(gè)大都市區(qū)的房?jī)r(jià)上漲。我們已經(jīng)知道,自疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),房?jī)r(jià)大幅上漲,而抵押貸款月供也在上漲。普通抵押貸款的月供比去年高出11.3%,比疫情之前高出115.3%。因此,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)不僅比去年更加昂貴,而且與四年前相比也截然不同。這就不難想象為什么購(gòu)房人會(huì)打退堂鼓。

抵押貸款利率略有下降;日利率為6.97%(因昨天的消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)報(bào)告而創(chuàng)下三個(gè)月來(lái)的最低水平),周利率為6.95%。根據(jù)Zillow的數(shù)據(jù),房?jī)r(jià)上漲速度也有所放緩。因此,對(duì)于潛在購(gòu)房人來(lái)說(shuō),情況或許會(huì)開(kāi)始好轉(zhuǎn)?

Redfin的經(jīng)濟(jì)研究負(fù)責(zé)人陳釗(音譯)在分析報(bào)告中表示:“盡管本周的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)議會(huì)抑制抵押貸款利率的下降,最新的通脹報(bào)告對(duì)購(gòu)房者來(lái)說(shuō)是好消息,因?yàn)樗呀?jīng)使抵押貸款利率下降。但從另一方面來(lái)看,如果抵押貸款利率下降帶來(lái)的需求大于供給,這可能會(huì)消除房?jī)r(jià)上漲放緩的可能性,并進(jìn)一步推高房?jī)r(jià)。就購(gòu)房者的月供而言,利率下降和房?jī)r(jià)上漲最終可能會(huì)相互抵消?!?/p>

但Zillow的奧爾森寫(xiě)道,如果說(shuō)有什么變化的話,那就是房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)正在朝著某種平衡的方向發(fā)展。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

《財(cái)富》雜志曾經(jīng)形容疫情期間歷史性的低抵押貸款利率是福禍相依。能夠享受到低于市場(chǎng)水平的利率當(dāng)然是好事,尤其是當(dāng)兩者相差巨大時(shí),但這也會(huì)讓你被鎖定;除非你別無(wú)選擇,否則你不太可能為了7%的利率而放棄3%的抵押貸款利率。

這種現(xiàn)象被稱為“鎖定效應(yīng)”,而在過(guò)去的一年里,這種效應(yīng)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了微妙的緩解跡象。去年,因?yàn)闆](méi)有人出售或購(gòu)買(mǎi)房屋,現(xiàn)房銷(xiāo)售跌至近三十年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。但賣(mài)房人似乎終于做好了準(zhǔn)備;唯一的問(wèn)題是,購(gòu)房人是否同樣積極。Zillow首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯凱拉·奧爾森在昨天發(fā)布的月度房地產(chǎn)報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道:“賣(mài)房人正在重返市場(chǎng),但購(gòu)房人卻變得猶豫不決?!?/p>

奧爾森重申:“賣(mài)房人開(kāi)始積極賣(mài)房,但購(gòu)房人卻并沒(méi)有這么熱情。”但我們?nèi)绾蔚弥u(mài)房市場(chǎng)正在復(fù)蘇? 5月份新掛牌房源增長(zhǎng)了約8%,與去年同期相比增長(zhǎng)了近13%。奧爾森寫(xiě)道:“盡管大多數(shù)未償還抵押貸款的利率遠(yuǎn)低于當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)利率,隨著時(shí)間的推移,業(yè)主繼續(xù)持有現(xiàn)有住宅和低利率抵押貸款的‘利率鎖定’效應(yīng)似乎正在減弱?!?/p>

但5月份的房屋銷(xiāo)量依舊不及去年;根據(jù)Zillow的數(shù)據(jù),5月銷(xiāo)量同比下降了6%。另外,根據(jù)Redfin今天發(fā)布的一份分析報(bào)告,待售房屋銷(xiāo)量比去年同期下降了3.5%,這是三個(gè)多月以來(lái)的最大降幅,其購(gòu)房者需求指數(shù)也下降了18%(自2月份以來(lái)的最低值),該指數(shù)考慮了看房要求和對(duì)Redfin中介提供的其他服務(wù)的要求。

奧爾森表示,無(wú)論如何,銷(xiāo)量下降在一定程度上有助于補(bǔ)充房屋庫(kù)存:待售房屋數(shù)量比去年同期增長(zhǎng)了22%(去年同期的待售房屋數(shù)量接近歷史最低點(diǎn)),總房屋庫(kù)存也達(dá)到了三年來(lái)的最小缺口,根據(jù)Zillow的數(shù)據(jù),這基本上意味著總庫(kù)存量比疫情之前低約34%,仍有巨大差距。

上個(gè)月的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)并不激烈,因此房?jī)r(jià)升值有所放緩。4月,房?jī)r(jià)同比上漲4.4%,但5月僅上漲了3.9%(環(huán)比漲幅同樣有所下降)。房屋漲價(jià)速度放緩對(duì)想買(mǎi)房的人來(lái)說(shuō)是件好事,但房?jī)r(jià)依舊比疫情之前上漲了45%。

奧爾森寫(xiě)道:“Zillow的市場(chǎng)熱度指數(shù)顯示,美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)對(duì)購(gòu)房人越來(lái)越友好,正朝著‘中性’的方向發(fā)展,但賣(mài)房人仍略占優(yōu)勢(shì)。在美國(guó)50個(gè)最大的都市區(qū)中,水牛城、哈特福德和圣何塞對(duì)賣(mài)房人最有利。而新奧爾良、邁阿密、杰克遜維爾和孟菲斯則對(duì)購(gòu)房人更有利,這些市場(chǎng)中的購(gòu)房人有更好的談判籌碼?!痹谌婪秶鷥?nèi),將近四分之一的待售房屋降價(jià),這是過(guò)去六年來(lái)降價(jià)房源比例最大的一次。

總而言之,對(duì)于想買(mǎi)房的人來(lái)說(shuō),當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)狀況大不相同,成本也更高。根據(jù)Zillow的數(shù)據(jù),按月計(jì)算,50個(gè)大都市區(qū)的房?jī)r(jià)都在上漲,按年計(jì)算,46個(gè)大都市區(qū)的房?jī)r(jià)上漲。我們已經(jīng)知道,自疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),房?jī)r(jià)大幅上漲,而抵押貸款月供也在上漲。普通抵押貸款的月供比去年高出11.3%,比疫情之前高出115.3%。因此,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)不僅比去年更加昂貴,而且與四年前相比也截然不同。這就不難想象為什么購(gòu)房人會(huì)打退堂鼓。

抵押貸款利率略有下降;日利率為6.97%(因昨天的消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)報(bào)告而創(chuàng)下三個(gè)月來(lái)的最低水平),周利率為6.95%。根據(jù)Zillow的數(shù)據(jù),房?jī)r(jià)上漲速度也有所放緩。因此,對(duì)于潛在購(gòu)房人來(lái)說(shuō),情況或許會(huì)開(kāi)始好轉(zhuǎn)?

Redfin的經(jīng)濟(jì)研究負(fù)責(zé)人陳釗(音譯)在分析報(bào)告中表示:“盡管本周的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)議會(huì)抑制抵押貸款利率的下降,最新的通脹報(bào)告對(duì)購(gòu)房者來(lái)說(shuō)是好消息,因?yàn)樗呀?jīng)使抵押貸款利率下降。但從另一方面來(lái)看,如果抵押貸款利率下降帶來(lái)的需求大于供給,這可能會(huì)消除房?jī)r(jià)上漲放緩的可能性,并進(jìn)一步推高房?jī)r(jià)。就購(gòu)房者的月供而言,利率下降和房?jī)r(jià)上漲最終可能會(huì)相互抵消。”

但Zillow的奧爾森寫(xiě)道,如果說(shuō)有什么變化的話,那就是房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)正在朝著某種平衡的方向發(fā)展。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Fortune once called the historically low mortgage rates of the pandemic era a blessing and a curse. It’s true—there’s nothing better than a below-market rate, especially when there’s such a substantial difference, but it keeps you locked in, too; it’s hard to give up a, let’s say, 3% mortgage rate for a 7% one, unless you have no other choice.

It’s a phenomenon called the lock-in effect, and all year it has shown subtle signs of easing. Last year, existing home sales fell to their lowest point in almost three decades because nobody was selling or buying homes. But it seems sellers are finally ready; the only thing is, buyers aren’t matching their energy. “Home sellers are returning to the market but finding buyers hesitating,” Zillow’s chief economist Skylar Olsen wrote in a monthly housing report published yesterday.

“Buyers aren’t matching sellers’ uptick in activity,” Olsen reiterated. But how do we know sellers are making a comeback? New listings rose roughly 8% in May and close to 13% from a year earlier. “The effects of ‘rate lock,’ owners holding on to their existing homes and low-rate mortgages, appear to be lessening over time, even as most outstanding mortgages have a rate well below what’s currently being quoted on the market,” she wrote.

Still, there were fewer sales in May than last year; they were down 6%, according to Zillow. Separately, according to a Redfin analysis published today, pending home sales are down 3.5% from a year earlier, which is the biggest decline in more than three months, and its homebuyer demand index, which considers requests for tours and other services from Redfin agents, is down 18% (the lowest since February).

Either way, Olsen said, the drop in sales volume helped with a sort of housing restock: The number of homes for sale rose 22% from a year earlier, when it was near an all-time low, and total inventory is at its smallest deficit in three years—which basically means it’s still a ways away from pre-pandemic levels, about 34% less, per Zillow.

Competition wasn’t as intense last month, so home price appreciation cooled. In April, home values rose 4.4% from a year earlier, but in May, they rose 3.9% (the monthly increase was lower, too). Slower home price appreciation is great for anyone who wants to buy a home, but home prices are still 45% higher than they were before the pandemic.

“Zillow’s Market Heat Index shows the nation is becoming a bit friendlier for buyers and is headed toward ‘neutral’ territory, but sellers still hold a slight advantage,” Olsen wrote. “Buffalo, Hartford, and San Jose are the top markets for sellers among the 50 largest metro areas. New Orleans, Miami, Jacksonville, and Memphis are all tilted toward buyers, giving those in the market better leverage in negotiations.” And nationally, almost a quarter of homes for sale slashed prices, which is the greatest share in the past six years.

All in all, it’s a much different, more costly landscape for people who want to buy homes. On a monthly basis, home prices are up in all 50 major metropolitan areas, and on an annual basis, they’re up in 46 metros, per Zillow. We already know home prices are considerably higher since the start of the pandemic; monthly mortgage payments are, too. The typical monthly mortgage payment is 11.3% higher than last year, and ready for this—115.3% since before the pandemic. So not only is the housing world more costly than last year, it’s a completely different entity from four years ago. It’s not hard to imagine why buyers are backing off.

Mortgage rates have come down a bit; daily rates are at 6.97% (their lowest in three months on the back of yesterday’s consumer price index report), and weekly rates are at 6.95%. Home price appreciation has slowed as well, according to Zillow. So maybe things will start to look up for would-be buyers?

“The latest inflation report is good for homebuyers because it has already sent mortgage rates down, though this week’s Fed meeting will temper mortgage-rate declines,” Redfin’s economic research lead Chen Zhao said in the analysis. “But on the other side of the coin, if lower mortgage rates bring back more demand than supply, that could erase the possibility that home-price growth softens, and push prices up even further. Lower rates and higher prices may ultimately cancel each other out when it comes to homebuyers’ monthly payments.”

Still, if anything, the housing world is moving toward a balance of sorts, Zillow’s Olsen wrote.

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