從高盛集團(Goldman Sachs & Co.)到摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和巴克萊銀行(Barclays Plc.)等金融巨頭都在重新審視債券市場的走勢(如果唐納德·特朗普在11月重新入主白宮)。
在上周的辯論影響了總統(tǒng)喬·拜登(Joe Biden)贏得連任的機會之后,華爾街策略師正敦促客戶為粘性通脹和長期債券收益率上升做好準備。
摩根士丹利包括馬修·霍恩巴赫(Matthew Hornbach)和古尼特·丁格拉(Guneet Dhingra)在內的策略師在上周末的一份報告中表示,相對于短期利率,“現(xiàn)在是時候”押注長期利率將會上升了。
摩根士丹利表示,特朗普自上周四辯論以來在民調中的支持率上升,意味著投資者不得不考慮可能導致美聯(lián)儲進一步降息的經(jīng)濟政策,以及共和黨大勝導致財政擴張和長期債券收益率上升的壓力。
巴克萊銀行則表示,面對特朗普勝選可能性攀升,最好的應對措施就是對沖通脹。策略師邁克爾·龐德(Michael Pond)和喬納森·希爾(Jonathan Hill)上周五撰文稱,最清晰的表述是押注五年期通脹保值國債(TIPS)的表現(xiàn)將優(yōu)于標準五年期債券。
像布蘭迪環(huán)球投資管理公司(Brandywine Global Investment Management)投資組合經(jīng)理杰克·麥金太爾(Jack McIntyre)這樣的買方投資者也越來越注意到這一點。
麥金太爾說,他“擔心債券義警會因為辯論失利而提前出場。拜登的表現(xiàn)、疲弱的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)和上漲的油價”將增加共和黨在11月大獲全勝的幾率。
美國國債周一下跌,將收益率推升至一周多來的最高水平,交易員表示,這是上周特朗普連任幾率上升帶來的持續(xù)影響。
美國最高法院對一起案件作出裁決后(該案件將限制特朗普在11月大選前因試圖推翻2020年大選結果的指控而受審的可能性),國債繼續(xù)下跌。
最長期限的國債收益率領漲,30年期國債收益率上漲逾8個基點,至4.65%,為5月31日以來的最高水平。
并非所有華爾街人士都認為長期國債收益率上升和國債收益率曲線呈現(xiàn)陡峭化趨勢是不可避免的。
以喬治·科爾(George Cole)和威廉·馬歇爾(William Marshall)領導的高盛集團策略師在辯論結束后寫道:“盡管達成的共識是美國國債收益率對共和黨獲勝的反應將是期限溢價驅動的拋售,但我們認為風險趨平也是合乎情理的。”他們認為,投資者的關注點將從財政支出轉向提高關稅的風險,隨著大選臨近,提高關稅可能會對生產(chǎn)率和經(jīng)濟增長造成壓力。
嘉信理財(Charles Schwab)首席固定收益策略師凱西·瓊斯(Kathy Jones)表示,由于11月后國會的組成尚不明朗,關于特朗普政策將如何影響市場的假設站不住腳。
瓊斯周一在接受彭博電視臺采訪時表示:“大選后政策走向的變化可能是美國國債市場面臨的最大風險。我只是認為現(xiàn)在下結論還為時過早??偨y(tǒng)候選人在競選過程中可能發(fā)表很多言論,但他們必須讓國會通過這些提案。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
從高盛集團(Goldman Sachs & Co.)到摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和巴克萊銀行(Barclays Plc.)等金融巨頭都在重新審視債券市場的走勢(如果唐納德·特朗普在11月重新入主白宮)。
在上周的辯論影響了總統(tǒng)喬·拜登(Joe Biden)贏得連任的機會之后,華爾街策略師正敦促客戶為粘性通脹和長期債券收益率上升做好準備。
摩根士丹利包括馬修·霍恩巴赫(Matthew Hornbach)和古尼特·丁格拉(Guneet Dhingra)在內的策略師在上周末的一份報告中表示,相對于短期利率,“現(xiàn)在是時候”押注長期利率將會上升了。
摩根士丹利表示,特朗普自上周四辯論以來在民調中的支持率上升,意味著投資者不得不考慮可能導致美聯(lián)儲進一步降息的經(jīng)濟政策,以及共和黨大勝導致財政擴張和長期債券收益率上升的壓力。
巴克萊銀行則表示,面對特朗普勝選可能性攀升,最好的應對措施就是對沖通脹。策略師邁克爾·龐德(Michael Pond)和喬納森·希爾(Jonathan Hill)上周五撰文稱,最清晰的表述是押注五年期通脹保值國債(TIPS)的表現(xiàn)將優(yōu)于標準五年期債券。
像布蘭迪環(huán)球投資管理公司(Brandywine Global Investment Management)投資組合經(jīng)理杰克·麥金太爾(Jack McIntyre)這樣的買方投資者也越來越注意到這一點。
麥金太爾說,他“擔心債券義警會因為辯論失利而提前出場。拜登的表現(xiàn)、疲弱的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)和上漲的油價”將增加共和黨在11月大獲全勝的幾率。
美國國債周一下跌,將收益率推升至一周多來的最高水平,交易員表示,這是上周特朗普連任幾率上升帶來的持續(xù)影響。
美國最高法院對一起案件作出裁決后(該案件將限制特朗普在11月大選前因試圖推翻2020年大選結果的指控而受審的可能性),國債繼續(xù)下跌。
最長期限的國債收益率領漲,30年期國債收益率上漲逾8個基點,至4.65%,為5月31日以來的最高水平。
并非所有華爾街人士都認為長期國債收益率上升和國債收益率曲線呈現(xiàn)陡峭化趨勢是不可避免的。
以喬治·科爾(George Cole)和威廉·馬歇爾(William Marshall)領導的高盛集團策略師在辯論結束后寫道:“盡管達成的共識是美國國債收益率對共和黨獲勝的反應將是期限溢價驅動的拋售,但我們認為風險趨平也是合乎情理的?!彼麄冋J為,投資者的關注點將從財政支出轉向提高關稅的風險,隨著大選臨近,提高關稅可能會對生產(chǎn)率和經(jīng)濟增長造成壓力。
嘉信理財(Charles Schwab)首席固定收益策略師凱西·瓊斯(Kathy Jones)表示,由于11月后國會的組成尚不明朗,關于特朗普政策將如何影響市場的假設站不住腳。
瓊斯周一在接受彭博電視臺采訪時表示:“大選后政策走向的變化可能是美國國債市場面臨的最大風險。我只是認為現(xiàn)在下結論還為時過早??偨y(tǒng)候選人在競選過程中可能發(fā)表很多言論,但他們必須讓國會通過這些提案?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Financial giants from Goldman Sachs & Co. to Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. are taking a fresh look at how a Donald Trump victory in November could play out in the bond market.
After last week’s debate hurt President Joe Biden’s chances of winning reelection, Wall Street strategists are urging clients to position for sticky inflation and higher long-term bond yields.
At Morgan Stanley, strategists including Matthew Hornbach and Guneet Dhingra in a weekend note argued that “now is the time” to wager on long-term interest rates rising relative to short-term ones.
Trump’s rise in the polls since Thursday’s debate means investors have to contemplate economic policies that could lead to more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, along with a Republican sweep that leads to fiscal expansion and pressures longer-term bond yields higher, Morgan Stanley said.
Barclays, meanwhile, said that the best response to the rising prospect of a Trump victory is to hedge against inflation. Strategists Michael Pond and Jonathan Hill wrote Friday that the clearest expression is a wager that five-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, will outperform standard five-year notes.
Buy-side investors like Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, are increasingly taking note.
McIntyre said he “is worried that the bond vigilantes are coming out early in response to the debate fall out.” The odds of a Republican sweep in November will increase from a combination of “Biden’s performance, weaker data, higher oil prices.”
US Treasuries fell on Monday, pushing yields to the highest levels in more than a week, in what traders said was ongoing fallout from last week’s bump in the odds of a second Trump term.
Treasuries extended their losses after the Supreme Court ruled in a case that will limit the chances that Trump will face trial before the November election on charges for attempting to reverse the 2020 election results.
The uptick in Treasury yields was led by the longest maturities, with 30-year bonds up more than eight basis points to 4.65%, the highest level since May 31.
Not all on Wall Street are convinced that higher long-term Treasury yields and steeper curves are inevitable.
“While a term premia-driven sell-off has been consensus for how US yields should react to a Republican victory, we see arguments for flattening risk,” Goldman Sachs strategists led by George Cole and William Marshall wrote after the debate. They see investor focus shifting away from fiscal spending and towards the risks of higher tariffs, which are likely to weigh on productivity and growth as the election comes into view.
With the makeup of Congress after November unclear, assumptions about how Trump policies will impact markets are on shaky ground, Kathy Jones, chief fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab said.
“A shift in the narrative about what policy will be after the election is probably the biggest risk to the Treasury market,” Jones told Bloomberg Television Monday. “I just think it’s too early. Presidential candidates can say a lot of things on the campaign trail, but they have to get those things through Congress.”