美國出人意料的經(jīng)濟韌性和人工智能熱潮帶來的豐厚利潤,正在推動美國科技巨頭朝著一個在幾十年前貌似不可能實現(xiàn)的里程碑邁進(jìn)。英偉達(dá)(Nvidia)、微軟(Microsoft)和蘋果(Apple)的市值均突破了3萬億美元大關(guān),而谷歌(Google)和亞馬遜(Amazon)緊隨其后,市值也超過2萬億美元。
這五家科技巨頭的總市值目前超過14.5萬億美元,在標(biāo)普500指數(shù)中的占比高達(dá)近32%。作為參考,根據(jù)Siblis Research的數(shù)據(jù),在2002年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅之后,美國所有股票的總市值為11.1萬億美元。今年大型科技公司的表現(xiàn)尤為出色,例如英偉達(dá)的市值在不到100天時間里從2萬億美元激增至3萬億美元。
這讓人們產(chǎn)生了一個疑問:哪家公司能率先達(dá)到下一個重要的里程碑,即市值達(dá)到4萬億美元?一些悲觀者認(rèn)為,由于高市值和經(jīng)濟增速放緩,大型科技公司創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的表現(xiàn)不可能永久持續(xù)下去,但樂觀者相信,這只是人工智能帶來的大型科技公司大獲成功的開端。
維德布什證券(Wedbush)的科技分析師丹·埃弗斯對《財富》雜志表示:“我認(rèn)為,未來一年會有三家公司的市值達(dá)到4萬億美元,它們分別是英偉達(dá)、蘋果和微軟?!?/p>
他認(rèn)為,華爾街的許多同行依舊低估了人工智能革命和美國經(jīng)濟的健康狀況。他說道:“除非用望遠(yuǎn)鏡,否則你根本看不到經(jīng)濟衰退的跡象。美聯(lián)儲?他們接下來要做的是降息而不是加息。因此在我看來,全部都是樂觀的跡象?,F(xiàn)在才晚上9點,而派對會持續(xù)到凌晨4點……憎恨者依舊感到厭惡,繼續(xù)說這是泡沫。”
英偉達(dá)
關(guān)于大型科技公司的未來發(fā)展方向,當(dāng)然有各種各樣的觀點,但許多專家們堅信,在對人工智能硬件貌似源源不斷的需求推動下,芯片巨頭英偉達(dá)將是第一家市值達(dá)到4萬億美元的公司。
埃弗斯認(rèn)為:“第一家市值達(dá)到4萬億美元的公司,可能是人工智能教父黃仁勛和英偉達(dá),因為英偉達(dá)在人工智能領(lǐng)域僅此一家,其GPU成為科技領(lǐng)域的新石油或黃金,沒有敵手。”
從年初至今,英偉達(dá)股價暴漲約160%,過去五年上漲了超過3,000%。因此一些分析師警告,該科技巨頭的估值過高,而且沒有考慮到半導(dǎo)體市場日益激烈的競爭。
正如New Constructs研究公司創(chuàng)始人兼CEO大衛(wèi)·特雷納上個月對《財富》雜志的肖恩·塔利所說的那樣:“英偉達(dá)的估值是荒謬的。它面臨著與特斯拉同樣的問題。當(dāng)特斯拉盈利時,有大批競爭對手進(jìn)入電動汽車領(lǐng)域,導(dǎo)致利潤率下降和銷售放緩。英偉達(dá)也會發(fā)生同樣的情況?!?/p>
但埃弗斯指出,盡管英偉達(dá)股價暴漲,其營收和利潤也在大幅增長。今年截至4月份的第一季度,英偉達(dá)的營收達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的260億美元,凈收入高達(dá)148億美元。2021年同期,英偉達(dá)的營收只有58億美元,凈收入19億美元。
家庭理財辦公室Navellier & Associates的創(chuàng)始人兼董事長劉易斯·納維利爾也反駁了關(guān)于競爭的觀點。他認(rèn)為,英偉達(dá)在關(guān)鍵人工智能芯片領(lǐng)域基本具有“壟斷地位”,這將在未來幾年支持英偉達(dá)的銷售額和利潤持續(xù)增長。他說道:“眾所周知,黃仁勛就像是新的馬斯克,成為被狂熱崇拜的偶像。”他還表示,這會繼續(xù)吸引更多散戶購買其股票。
截至7月5日,英偉達(dá)的市值:3.14萬億美元。
微軟
過去幾年,微軟云業(yè)務(wù)的蓬勃發(fā)展和對ChatGPT開發(fā)者OpenAI的大筆投資,刺激了該公司的股價上漲。但獨立財富管理公司CapWealth的創(chuàng)始人兼首席投資官蒂姆·帕利亞拉表示,微軟的市值要達(dá)到4萬億美元,依靠的是其多元化和可持續(xù)的收入流。
他表示,由于目前他所說的人工智能“狂熱”,英偉達(dá)的市值可能首先短暫達(dá)到4萬億美元里程碑,但微軟將是“更持久的”4萬億美元公司。
他補充說:“他們積極擁抱人工智能,而且他們還有大量新業(yè)務(wù)。而且我知道作為一個小企業(yè)主,我們很樂意每個月為每位用戶繼續(xù)支付更多的費用,使用微軟的所有服務(wù),例如Azure,以及該公司創(chuàng)建的安全和其他方面的一些附加功能等?!彼岬搅宋④浀腁zure云計算業(yè)務(wù)。
帕利亞拉認(rèn)為,與微軟相比,其他大型科技公司的商業(yè)模式風(fēng)險更高。他表示,蘋果依賴消費者每隔幾年更換新iPhone手機,而英偉達(dá)受益于短期內(nèi)沒有競爭對手。與此同時,從Azure云業(yè)務(wù)到Office 365,再到Windows和Linkedin,微軟有許多能持續(xù)增加營收的業(yè)務(wù)。
市值:3.48萬億美元。
蘋果
蘋果有潛力利用人工智能讓客戶升級現(xiàn)有手機,并吸引更多消費者購買iPhone手機,因此蘋果公司的長遠(yuǎn)前景,在許多分析師的名單上都名列前茅。樂觀者認(rèn)為,蘋果或許不是首先達(dá)到4萬億美元市值的公司,但它達(dá)到這個里程碑的時間不會太久。
埃弗斯預(yù)測稱:“我認(rèn)為未來兩三年,市值最高的公司將是蘋果,因為蘋果擁有22億臺iOS設(shè)備。對于蘋果而言,消費級人工智能將迎來爆發(fā)式增長,它們目前只是處于人工智能驅(qū)動的超級周期的開端?!?/p>
劉易斯·納維利爾也看好蘋果公司的未來前景,但他表示,該公司需要一些“小突破”,以吸引更多客戶購買新iPhone手機。
他提到了新人工智能工具和折疊式iPhone手機的潛力?!拔也磺宄麄冊诮衲?月份是否會發(fā)布折疊式手機,但如果發(fā)布,這款手機的價格將是2,500美元,而且它一定會很搶手,并使蘋果公司的股價暴漲。”
市值:3.46萬億美元
Alphabet和亞馬遜表現(xiàn)如何?
谷歌母公司Alphabet當(dāng)前的市值為2.36萬億美元,與4萬億美元大關(guān)相去甚遠(yuǎn)。分析師認(rèn)為,Alphabet能夠抓住人工智能革命帶來的商機,但其在人工幻覺方面的失誤導(dǎo)致其落后于其他公司,而且其云業(yè)務(wù)也表現(xiàn)不佳。然而最近的報告顯示,該搜索巨頭正在從同行那里挖掘人才,以迎頭趕上。
亞馬遜的情況類似。亞馬遜的市值最近突破了2萬億美元,而且專家預(yù)計,其股價上漲接近一倍需要時間。維德布什的埃弗斯認(rèn)為,亞馬遜的云業(yè)務(wù)AWS表現(xiàn)同樣遜色于微軟。他說道:“我認(rèn)為亞馬遜有些傲慢地低估了納德拉和微軟所做的事情,而面對同樣來自西雅圖的微軟的同城競爭,亞馬遜遭到了沉重打擊?!?/p>
資深科技行業(yè)分析師埃弗斯認(rèn)為,在人工智能方面,亞馬遜同樣“嚴(yán)重落后”。但他指出,亞馬遜CEO安迪·賈西對公司的云業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行了一些改革,而且亞馬遜擁有龐大的客戶基礎(chǔ),因此未來亞馬遜應(yīng)該能從人工智能領(lǐng)域受益。
這個名單中的每一家科技公司確實也都面臨風(fēng)險。反壟斷規(guī)定、網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊、經(jīng)濟增速放緩和人工智能支出減少等因素都不容忽視。但目前,樂觀者的態(tài)度依舊堅定,而且他們認(rèn)為所有人都應(yīng)該堅持這種觀點。
埃弗斯說道:“篤信各種財務(wù)報表和估值數(shù)據(jù)的科技公司悲觀者不會改變立場。但等到這場人工智能派對塵埃落定,樂觀者[應(yīng)該已經(jīng)]取得成功,而悲觀者只是顯得聰明而已。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
美國出人意料的經(jīng)濟韌性和人工智能熱潮帶來的豐厚利潤,正在推動美國科技巨頭朝著一個在幾十年前貌似不可能實現(xiàn)的里程碑邁進(jìn)。英偉達(dá)(Nvidia)、微軟(Microsoft)和蘋果(Apple)的市值均突破了3萬億美元大關(guān),而谷歌(Google)和亞馬遜(Amazon)緊隨其后,市值也超過2萬億美元。
這五家科技巨頭的總市值目前超過14.5萬億美元,在標(biāo)普500指數(shù)中的占比高達(dá)近32%。作為參考,根據(jù)Siblis Research的數(shù)據(jù),在2002年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅之后,美國所有股票的總市值為11.1萬億美元。今年大型科技公司的表現(xiàn)尤為出色,例如英偉達(dá)的市值在不到100天時間里從2萬億美元激增至3萬億美元。
這讓人們產(chǎn)生了一個疑問:哪家公司能率先達(dá)到下一個重要的里程碑,即市值達(dá)到4萬億美元?一些悲觀者認(rèn)為,由于高市值和經(jīng)濟增速放緩,大型科技公司創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的表現(xiàn)不可能永久持續(xù)下去,但樂觀者相信,這只是人工智能帶來的大型科技公司大獲成功的開端。
維德布什證券(Wedbush)的科技分析師丹·埃弗斯對《財富》雜志表示:“我認(rèn)為,未來一年會有三家公司的市值達(dá)到4萬億美元,它們分別是英偉達(dá)、蘋果和微軟?!?/p>
他認(rèn)為,華爾街的許多同行依舊低估了人工智能革命和美國經(jīng)濟的健康狀況。他說道:“除非用望遠(yuǎn)鏡,否則你根本看不到經(jīng)濟衰退的跡象。美聯(lián)儲?他們接下來要做的是降息而不是加息。因此在我看來,全部都是樂觀的跡象?,F(xiàn)在才晚上9點,而派對會持續(xù)到凌晨4點……憎恨者依舊感到厭惡,繼續(xù)說這是泡沫?!?/p>
英偉達(dá)
關(guān)于大型科技公司的未來發(fā)展方向,當(dāng)然有各種各樣的觀點,但許多專家們堅信,在對人工智能硬件貌似源源不斷的需求推動下,芯片巨頭英偉達(dá)將是第一家市值達(dá)到4萬億美元的公司。
埃弗斯認(rèn)為:“第一家市值達(dá)到4萬億美元的公司,可能是人工智能教父黃仁勛和英偉達(dá),因為英偉達(dá)在人工智能領(lǐng)域僅此一家,其GPU成為科技領(lǐng)域的新石油或黃金,沒有敵手?!?/p>
從年初至今,英偉達(dá)股價暴漲約160%,過去五年上漲了超過3,000%。因此一些分析師警告,該科技巨頭的估值過高,而且沒有考慮到半導(dǎo)體市場日益激烈的競爭。
正如New Constructs研究公司創(chuàng)始人兼CEO大衛(wèi)·特雷納上個月對《財富》雜志的肖恩·塔利所說的那樣:“英偉達(dá)的估值是荒謬的。它面臨著與特斯拉同樣的問題。當(dāng)特斯拉盈利時,有大批競爭對手進(jìn)入電動汽車領(lǐng)域,導(dǎo)致利潤率下降和銷售放緩。英偉達(dá)也會發(fā)生同樣的情況?!?/p>
但埃弗斯指出,盡管英偉達(dá)股價暴漲,其營收和利潤也在大幅增長。今年截至4月份的第一季度,英偉達(dá)的營收達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的260億美元,凈收入高達(dá)148億美元。2021年同期,英偉達(dá)的營收只有58億美元,凈收入19億美元。
家庭理財辦公室Navellier & Associates的創(chuàng)始人兼董事長劉易斯·納維利爾也反駁了關(guān)于競爭的觀點。他認(rèn)為,英偉達(dá)在關(guān)鍵人工智能芯片領(lǐng)域基本具有“壟斷地位”,這將在未來幾年支持英偉達(dá)的銷售額和利潤持續(xù)增長。他說道:“眾所周知,黃仁勛就像是新的馬斯克,成為被狂熱崇拜的偶像?!彼€表示,這會繼續(xù)吸引更多散戶購買其股票。
截至7月5日,英偉達(dá)的市值:3.14萬億美元。
微軟
過去幾年,微軟云業(yè)務(wù)的蓬勃發(fā)展和對ChatGPT開發(fā)者OpenAI的大筆投資,刺激了該公司的股價上漲。但獨立財富管理公司CapWealth的創(chuàng)始人兼首席投資官蒂姆·帕利亞拉表示,微軟的市值要達(dá)到4萬億美元,依靠的是其多元化和可持續(xù)的收入流。
他表示,由于目前他所說的人工智能“狂熱”,英偉達(dá)的市值可能首先短暫達(dá)到4萬億美元里程碑,但微軟將是“更持久的”4萬億美元公司。
他補充說:“他們積極擁抱人工智能,而且他們還有大量新業(yè)務(wù)。而且我知道作為一個小企業(yè)主,我們很樂意每個月為每位用戶繼續(xù)支付更多的費用,使用微軟的所有服務(wù),例如Azure,以及該公司創(chuàng)建的安全和其他方面的一些附加功能等。”他提到了微軟的Azure云計算業(yè)務(wù)。
帕利亞拉認(rèn)為,與微軟相比,其他大型科技公司的商業(yè)模式風(fēng)險更高。他表示,蘋果依賴消費者每隔幾年更換新iPhone手機,而英偉達(dá)受益于短期內(nèi)沒有競爭對手。與此同時,從Azure云業(yè)務(wù)到Office 365,再到Windows和Linkedin,微軟有許多能持續(xù)增加營收的業(yè)務(wù)。
市值:3.48萬億美元。
蘋果
蘋果有潛力利用人工智能讓客戶升級現(xiàn)有手機,并吸引更多消費者購買iPhone手機,因此蘋果公司的長遠(yuǎn)前景,在許多分析師的名單上都名列前茅。樂觀者認(rèn)為,蘋果或許不是首先達(dá)到4萬億美元市值的公司,但它達(dá)到這個里程碑的時間不會太久。
埃弗斯預(yù)測稱:“我認(rèn)為未來兩三年,市值最高的公司將是蘋果,因為蘋果擁有22億臺iOS設(shè)備。對于蘋果而言,消費級人工智能將迎來爆發(fā)式增長,它們目前只是處于人工智能驅(qū)動的超級周期的開端?!?/p>
劉易斯·納維利爾也看好蘋果公司的未來前景,但他表示,該公司需要一些“小突破”,以吸引更多客戶購買新iPhone手機。
他提到了新人工智能工具和折疊式iPhone手機的潛力?!拔也磺宄麄冊诮衲?月份是否會發(fā)布折疊式手機,但如果發(fā)布,這款手機的價格將是2,500美元,而且它一定會很搶手,并使蘋果公司的股價暴漲?!?/p>
市值:3.46萬億美元
Alphabet和亞馬遜表現(xiàn)如何?
谷歌母公司Alphabet當(dāng)前的市值為2.36萬億美元,與4萬億美元大關(guān)相去甚遠(yuǎn)。分析師認(rèn)為,Alphabet能夠抓住人工智能革命帶來的商機,但其在人工幻覺方面的失誤導(dǎo)致其落后于其他公司,而且其云業(yè)務(wù)也表現(xiàn)不佳。然而最近的報告顯示,該搜索巨頭正在從同行那里挖掘人才,以迎頭趕上。
亞馬遜的情況類似。亞馬遜的市值最近突破了2萬億美元,而且專家預(yù)計,其股價上漲接近一倍需要時間。維德布什的埃弗斯認(rèn)為,亞馬遜的云業(yè)務(wù)AWS表現(xiàn)同樣遜色于微軟。他說道:“我認(rèn)為亞馬遜有些傲慢地低估了納德拉和微軟所做的事情,而面對同樣來自西雅圖的微軟的同城競爭,亞馬遜遭到了沉重打擊?!?/p>
資深科技行業(yè)分析師埃弗斯認(rèn)為,在人工智能方面,亞馬遜同樣“嚴(yán)重落后”。但他指出,亞馬遜CEO安迪·賈西對公司的云業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行了一些改革,而且亞馬遜擁有龐大的客戶基礎(chǔ),因此未來亞馬遜應(yīng)該能從人工智能領(lǐng)域受益。
這個名單中的每一家科技公司確實也都面臨風(fēng)險。反壟斷規(guī)定、網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊、經(jīng)濟增速放緩和人工智能支出減少等因素都不容忽視。但目前,樂觀者的態(tài)度依舊堅定,而且他們認(rèn)為所有人都應(yīng)該堅持這種觀點。
埃弗斯說道:“篤信各種財務(wù)報表和估值數(shù)據(jù)的科技公司悲觀者不會改變立場。但等到這場人工智能派對塵埃落定,樂觀者[應(yīng)該已經(jīng)]取得成功,而悲觀者只是顯得聰明而已?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
A surprisingly resilient economy and profit-filled AI boom are driving the United States’ big tech giants toward a milestone that would have seemed impossible just a few decades ago. Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple have all surpassed the $3 trillion market capitalization mark, and Google and Amazon are following close behind in the $2 trillion range.
Combined, these five tech giants alone are now worth more than $14.5 trillion and make up roughly 32% of the S&P 500. For reference, in 2002, after the dot-com bubble burst, the total market capitalization of every U.S. stock was $11.1 trillion, according to Siblis Research data. Big tech’s performance has been particularly impressive this year, with Nvidia, for example, surging from a $2 trillion market cap to a $3 trillion market cap in under 100 days.
That begs the question: which tech giant will hit the next big milestone, $4 trillion in market cap, first? Some bears argue that big tech companies’ record run of performance can’t continue forever, given their elevated valuations and the slowing economy, while the bulls believe this is just the beginning of a streak of AI-induced wins for big tech.
“I think, a year from now, we [will] have three $4 trillion market cap companies: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft,” Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives told Fortune.
He argued that many of his peers on Wall Street continue to underestimate the AI revolution and the health of the U.S. economy. “Unless you have a telescope, you can’t find a recession. And the Fed? Their next move is a cut not a hike. So, to me, all signs are bullish,” he said. “It’s 9 pm, and the party goes to 4 am…the haters will hate, continuing to say that this is a bubble.”
Nvidia
There are, of course, a wide range of views on where big tech companies are headed, but many experts are convinced that chip giant Nvidia will be the first to reach the $4 trillion market cap mark, driven by the seemingly unending thirst for its AI-enabling hardware.
“The first one to get there is likely to be the godfather of AI Jensen [Huang] and Nvidia, because they’re the only game in town—their GPUs are the new oil or gold in the tech world with no real competition,” Ives said.
Nvidia stock has surged roughly 160% year to date and more than 3,000% over the past five years. That’s led some analysts to warn that the tech giant’s valuation has become stretched, and doesn’t account for rising competition in the semiconductor market.
As David Trainer, founder and CEO of research firm New Constructs, told Fortune’s Shawn Tully last month: “Nvidia’s valuation is ridiculous. It’s facing the same curse as Tesla. But when Tesla got profitable, loads of competitors entered the EV space, cutting margins and slowing sales. The same will happen with Nvidia.”
But Ives noted that even though Nvidia’s shares have surged, its revenues and earnings have followed suit. Nvidia raked in a record $26 billion in revenues and $14.8 billion in net income in the quarter that ended this April. In 2021, during the same quarter, the company had revenues of just $5.8 billion and net income of $1.9 billion.
Louis Navellier, founder and chairman of family office Navellier & Associates, also brushed off the competition argument, claiming Nvidia essentially has a “monopoly” on key AI chips which will lead to consistent sales and earnings growth for years to come. “And, you know, Jensen is kind of like the new Elon, he’s got kind of a cult status,” he said, adding that will continue to drive retail investors in the stock.
Nvidia’s market capitalization as of July 5: $3.14 trillion
Microsoft
Microsoft’s booming cloud business and big investment into ChatGPT creator OpenAI have buoyed its shares over the past few years. But it’s the company’s diverse and sustainable revenue streams that will lead it to a $4 trillion market cap, according to Tim Pagliara, founder and chief investment officer of independent wealth management firm CapWealth.
He said Nvidia may briefly touch the $4 trillion milestone first, due to what he called the current AI “mania,” but Microsoft will be the “more sustainable” $4 trillion company.
“They're embracing AI, but they also have just a tremendous number of things in the pipeline. And I know as a small business owner, we just gladly keep paying them more per user per month for everything from Azure to some of the additional add ons that they have created for security and things like that,” he added, referencing Microsoft’s Azure cloud computing business.
Pagliara thinks Microsoft’s big tech rivals have riskier business models as well. Apple is dependent on consumers buying into its new iPhone offerings every few years, and Nvidia is benefiting from a lack of competition in the near term, he said. Meanwhile, Microsoft has multiple avenues for consistent revenue growth from the Azure cloud business and Office 365 to Windows and Linkedin.
Market cap: $3.48 trillion
Apple
When it comes to a longer-term outlook, Apple is high on many analysts’ lists because of its potential to use AI to get customers to upgrade their current phones and lure in more iPhone customers. It may not be the first to reach a $4 trillion market cap, but it will get there soon, these bulls say.
“I think over the next two, three years, the largest market cap that we will see is Apple, because they have 2.2 billion iOS devices,” Ives predicted. “Consumer AI is going to go through the walls for Cupertino—they are only in the beginning of an AI-driven supercycle.”
Louis Navellier was also optimistic about Apple’s future, but he said it will need a few “l(fā)ittle breakthroughs” to get more customers to buy new iPhones.
He pointed to new AI tools and the potential for folding iPhones as examples. “I don't know if they're going to announce that in September, but if they do, it will be a $2,500 phone, and it will sell like crazy and send that stock soaring.”
Market cap: $3.46 trillion
What about Alphabet and Amazon?
The Google parent’s market cap is currently $2.36 trillion, leaving it well shy of the $4 trillion mark. Analysts said Alphabet will be able to capitalize on the AI revolution, but its missteps with hallucinations have left it behind, and its cloud business isn’t performing as well as others. However, the search giant is taking talent from its peers in an attempt to catch up, recent reports have shown.
It’s a similar story for Amazon, which just recently passed the $2 trillion milestone, and experts expect it will take time for share prices to nearly double. Wedbush’s Ives argued that Amazon’s cloud business, AWS, has also lost out to Microsoft. “I think there was some hubris in underestimating what Nadella and Microsoft are doing, and with the crosstown rivals and in that 2-0-6 area code, it's been a bit of a gut punch for Amazon,” he said.
And when it comes to AI, Amazon is just “behind the eightball” too, according to the veteran tech analyst. However, Ives noted that CEO Andy Jassy has made changes to the company’s cloud business, and with a massive base of customers, Amazon should benefit more from AI moving forward.
To be sure, every tech giant on this list also faces risks. Antitrust regulations, cyber attacks, a slowing economy, and a reduction in AI spending should all be considered. But for now, the bulls remain bullish–and they think you should be too.
“The tech bears with their spreadsheets and valuations will stay in hibernation mode,” Ives said. “But when everyone meets for breakfast at 6 am after this AI party. The bulls [will have] won and the bears just sound smart.”