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美股大幅回調(diào),你應(yīng)該抄底嗎?

Alicia Adamczyk
2024-08-09

如果你愿意,可以適度增持。

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圖片來源:Michael M. Santiago—Getty Images

繼全球股市遭遇拋售之后,周一美國(guó)股市也大幅下挫,令投資者對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂甚囂塵上。但金融專家指出,如今還不是擔(dān)心的時(shí)候,并指出回調(diào)屬于正?,F(xiàn)象。鑒于股票近期價(jià)格達(dá)到前所未有的高位,一些專家認(rèn)為,此刻以折扣價(jià)買入并非糟糕的決策。馬薩諸塞州注冊(cè)理財(cái)規(guī)劃師(CFP)凱瑟琳·瓦萊加(Catherine Valega)表示,雖然這看似有悖常理,但對(duì)于那些處于"積累模式"(這一術(shù)語指的是離退休還有幾年時(shí)間)的人來說,在價(jià)格下跌時(shí)買入股票不失為一種選擇。

瓦萊加稱:“沒錯(cuò),要繼續(xù)買入。倘若你有閑置資金,在激進(jìn)、多元化的股票投資組合追加投入會(huì)是良策?!?/p>

因此,如果你愿意,可以適度增持。也就是說,當(dāng)下正是真正實(shí)踐你可能熟知的那些投資準(zhǔn)則的好時(shí)機(jī)。買入并持有。不要試圖把握市場(chǎng)時(shí)機(jī),要保持美元成本平均法。

德克薩斯州的注冊(cè)理財(cái)規(guī)劃師安德魯·赫佐格(Andrew Herzog)表示,最后一條準(zhǔn)則意味著,無論市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)如何,都不應(yīng)改變策略。如果你一直投入相同的金額——例如,通過每?jī)芍軓墓べY中扣除一定款項(xiàng)投入401(k)計(jì)劃——那么就無需變更。隨著時(shí)間的推移,美元成本平均法有助于投資者在價(jià)格較低時(shí)買入更多投資產(chǎn)品,在價(jià)格較高時(shí)買入更少的投資產(chǎn)品。

赫佐格說:"如此一來,你就能排除情緒干擾。對(duì)于長(zhǎng)期投資的普通投資者而言,這是一個(gè)很好的策略。"

對(duì)于那些在市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)如此劇烈的情況下對(duì)投資感到不安的人來說,赫佐格提及了諸如第二次世界大戰(zhàn)、金融危機(jī)、疫情等重大災(zāi)難性事件后的市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇情況。就最近的這次暴跌(這是自1987年以來的最大跌幅)而言,值得留意的是,今年股票仍呈上漲態(tài)勢(shì)。

"從歷史上看,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)在經(jīng)歷了20次最大的市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)(正如我們今天看到的這樣)之后表現(xiàn)如何?[其]在接下來的一年里的平均上漲了17.5%,"他表示,引用了財(cái)富管理公司Creative Planning的首席市場(chǎng)策略師查理·比列洛(Charlie Bilello)整理的圖表。"要用短期痛苦,換取長(zhǎng)期收益。"

倘若你此刻決定用部分額外的現(xiàn)金買入——切勿動(dòng)用應(yīng)急基金,而是動(dòng)用你可能擁有的任何盈余資金。如果尚未設(shè)立應(yīng)急基金,應(yīng)首先關(guān)注此事——切記股票價(jià)格可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步下跌。因此,這并非短期操作。相反,只有當(dāng)你計(jì)劃長(zhǎng)期持有時(shí),才應(yīng)逢低買入。

最重要的是,我們無法確切預(yù)知接下來的市場(chǎng)走向。這可能是股市下滑的盡頭,也可能是更深層次調(diào)整的開端。對(duì)于多數(shù)投資者而言,在市場(chǎng)高點(diǎn)與低點(diǎn)均維持一貫的投資策略方為上策。佛羅里達(dá)州的注冊(cè)理財(cái)規(guī)劃師馬特·錢西(Matt Chancey)表示,臨近退休的老年投資者可以考慮重新平衡投資組合。

錢西稱:“市場(chǎng)向來具有周期性,而且未來亦將如此。在缺乏明確的美元成本平均法或持續(xù)再平衡流程的情況下,試圖低買高賣純屬徒勞之舉。不要拿你的儲(chǔ)蓄冒險(xiǎn)。”

而且絕對(duì)不要像這位Reddit用戶提議的那樣做:現(xiàn)在賣出,待確定股票價(jià)格更低時(shí)再買入。低點(diǎn)根本無從預(yù)知。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

繼全球股市遭遇拋售之后,周一美國(guó)股市也大幅下挫,令投資者對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂甚囂塵上。但金融專家指出,如今還不是擔(dān)心的時(shí)候,并指出回調(diào)屬于正?,F(xiàn)象。鑒于股票近期價(jià)格達(dá)到前所未有的高位,一些專家認(rèn)為,此刻以折扣價(jià)買入并非糟糕的決策。馬薩諸塞州注冊(cè)理財(cái)規(guī)劃師(CFP)凱瑟琳·瓦萊加(Catherine Valega)表示,雖然這看似有悖常理,但對(duì)于那些處于"積累模式"(這一術(shù)語指的是離退休還有幾年時(shí)間)的人來說,在價(jià)格下跌時(shí)買入股票不失為一種選擇。

瓦萊加稱:“沒錯(cuò),要繼續(xù)買入。倘若你有閑置資金,在激進(jìn)、多元化的股票投資組合追加投入會(huì)是良策?!?/p>

因此,如果你愿意,可以適度增持。也就是說,當(dāng)下正是真正實(shí)踐你可能熟知的那些投資準(zhǔn)則的好時(shí)機(jī)。買入并持有。不要試圖把握市場(chǎng)時(shí)機(jī),要保持美元成本平均法。

德克薩斯州的注冊(cè)理財(cái)規(guī)劃師安德魯·赫佐格(Andrew Herzog)表示,最后一條準(zhǔn)則意味著,無論市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)如何,都不應(yīng)改變策略。如果你一直投入相同的金額——例如,通過每?jī)芍軓墓べY中扣除一定款項(xiàng)投入401(k)計(jì)劃——那么就無需變更。隨著時(shí)間的推移,美元成本平均法有助于投資者在價(jià)格較低時(shí)買入更多投資產(chǎn)品,在價(jià)格較高時(shí)買入更少的投資產(chǎn)品。

赫佐格說:"如此一來,你就能排除情緒干擾。對(duì)于長(zhǎng)期投資的普通投資者而言,這是一個(gè)很好的策略。"

對(duì)于那些在市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)如此劇烈的情況下對(duì)投資感到不安的人來說,赫佐格提及了諸如第二次世界大戰(zhàn)、金融危機(jī)、疫情等重大災(zāi)難性事件后的市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇情況。就最近的這次暴跌(這是自1987年以來的最大跌幅)而言,值得留意的是,今年股票仍呈上漲態(tài)勢(shì)。

"從歷史上看,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)在經(jīng)歷了20次最大的市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)(正如我們今天看到的這樣)之后表現(xiàn)如何?[其]在接下來的一年里的平均上漲了17.5%,"他表示,引用了財(cái)富管理公司Creative Planning的首席市場(chǎng)策略師查理·比列洛(Charlie Bilello)整理的圖表。"要用短期痛苦,換取長(zhǎng)期收益。"

倘若你此刻決定用部分額外的現(xiàn)金買入——切勿動(dòng)用應(yīng)急基金,而是動(dòng)用你可能擁有的任何盈余資金。如果尚未設(shè)立應(yīng)急基金,應(yīng)首先關(guān)注此事——切記股票價(jià)格可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步下跌。因此,這并非短期操作。相反,只有當(dāng)你計(jì)劃長(zhǎng)期持有時(shí),才應(yīng)逢低買入。

最重要的是,我們無法確切預(yù)知接下來的市場(chǎng)走向。這可能是股市下滑的盡頭,也可能是更深層次調(diào)整的開端。對(duì)于多數(shù)投資者而言,在市場(chǎng)高點(diǎn)與低點(diǎn)均維持一貫的投資策略方為上策。佛羅里達(dá)州的注冊(cè)理財(cái)規(guī)劃師馬特·錢西(Matt Chancey)表示,臨近退休的老年投資者可以考慮重新平衡投資組合。

錢西稱:“市場(chǎng)向來具有周期性,而且未來亦將如此。在缺乏明確的美元成本平均法或持續(xù)再平衡流程的情況下,試圖低買高賣純屬徒勞之舉。不要拿你的儲(chǔ)蓄冒險(xiǎn)。”

而且絕對(duì)不要像這位Reddit用戶提議的那樣做:現(xiàn)在賣出,待確定股票價(jià)格更低時(shí)再買入。低點(diǎn)根本無從預(yù)知。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

U.S. stocks tanked Monday following a global sell-off, sending investors into a tizzy with recession fears. But it’s not time to worry yet, say financial experts who point out that pullbacks are normal. And given how stocks were recently more expensive than ever, it’s not a terrible idea to buy at what some experts call a discount. Though it might seem counterintuitive, buying when prices drop is an option for those in “accumulation mode”—a term that describes those years from retirement—says Catherine Valega, a Massachusetts-based certified financial planner (CFP).

“Yes, yes, yes. Keep buying,” says Valega. “If you have cash on the sidelines it would be great to add more to an aggressive, diversified, stock portfolio.”

So you can buy a bit more if you like. That said, now is a good time to actually practice all of those investing maxims you’re likely familiar with. Buy and hold. Don’t try to time the market. Keep dollar-cost averaging.

That last bit means not changing up your strategy at all, no matter what the markets are doing. If you are consistently investing the same amount—say, through a biweekly paycheck deduction to your 401(k)—then there’s no need to change it up, says Andrew Herzog, a Texas-based CFP. Over time, dollar-cost averaging helps investors buy more investments at a lower price and fewer investments at a higher price.

“That’s how you keep the emotion out of it,” says Herzog. “This is a great strategy for the average investor who is investing for the long term.”

For those nervous about investing when there is so much volatility, Herzog points to recoveries following cataclysmic events like World War II to the Great Financial Crisis to the pandemic. And in the case of the latest crash—which saw the biggest drop since 1987—it’s worth noting that stocks are still up this year.

“Historically speaking, how did the S&P 500 perform after twenty of the largest spikes in market volatility, like what we’re seeing today? [It] averaged 17.5% over the following year,” he says, referencing this chart put together by Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at wealth management firm Creative Planning. “Short term pain, long term gain.”

And if you do decide to buy with some extra cash now—don’t draw on your emergency fund, but from any surplus funds you might have. If you don’t have an emergency fund, focus on that first—remember that stocks could fall lower still. So it’s not a short-term play. Instead, only buy the dip if you plan to hold it long term.

The bottom line is that it’s impossible to say what will happen next. This could be as far as stocks slide, or it could be the start of a deeper correction. Having a consistent investing strategy through the highs and lows is most investors’ best play. Older investors closer to retirement can look into rebalancing, says Matt Chancey, a Florida-based CFP.

“Markets have always been and will always be cyclical in nature. The goal of buying low and selling high without a defined process of dollar-cost averaging or consistently rebalancing is a fool’s errand,” says Chancey. “Don’t gamble with your savings.”

And definitely don’t do what this Reddit user proposed: Selling now and buying back when you are certain stocks will be even lower. There is simply no way to know.

財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)為財(cái)富媒體知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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