對(duì)股市來說,夏季的三伏天通常是糟糕的月份,今年也是如此。
上月初,由于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)引發(fā)了對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂,加上日元套息交易平倉(cāng),股市暴跌。九月伊始,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)經(jīng)歷了一年半以來最糟糕的一周。
但另一方面,這也為今年最后幾個(gè)月傳統(tǒng)上的大幅反彈埋下了伏筆。
Bespoke Investment Group的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,從歷史上看,10月份是股市開始出現(xiàn)最大漲幅的月份。
上周五的一份報(bào)告稱:“鑒于8月和9月歷來都是疲軟的月份,市場(chǎng)最終總是會(huì)從拋售中反彈,從直覺上講,這應(yīng)是合乎情理的?!?/p>
根據(jù)該公司的統(tǒng)計(jì),自二戰(zhàn)以來,股市出現(xiàn)61次漲幅在10%以上的反彈,其中19次始于10月份,占總數(shù)的三分之一,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于其他月份。3月份有10次,而其他月份都是個(gè)位數(shù)的中低水平。
內(nèi)德戴維斯研究公司(Ned Davis Research)同樣表示,股市很可能會(huì)在第四季度的季節(jié)性趨勢(shì)支持下出現(xiàn)“持續(xù)上升”。也就是說,10月到12月通常是一年中最強(qiáng)勁的三個(gè)月。
12月也是所謂的圣誕老人行情出現(xiàn)的時(shí)候,因?yàn)榧竟?jié)性的歡樂、對(duì)未來一年的樂觀情緒、新聞周期緩慢以及成交量減少往往會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)化為股市上漲。
到目前為止,幾個(gè)關(guān)鍵的市場(chǎng)基本面都得到了支撐。雖然就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)放緩,但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家指出,失業(yè)救濟(jì)申請(qǐng)人數(shù)較少,企業(yè)盈利強(qiáng)勁,國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值數(shù)據(jù)和預(yù)估強(qiáng)勁,零售銷售向好,工資上漲。
Infrastructure Capital Advisors首席執(zhí)行官杰伊·哈特菲爾德(Jay Hatfield)上周五在一份報(bào)告中說,最新的就業(yè)報(bào)告仍與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)相一致,并證實(shí)了他將標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的目標(biāo)價(jià)定為6000點(diǎn)的預(yù)測(cè),這意味著11%的上漲空間。
他的這一假設(shè)是,11月份的大選將導(dǎo)致政府分裂,民主黨和共和黨都不會(huì)大獲全勝。他還認(rèn)為,經(jīng)濟(jì)不僅會(huì)避免衰退,而且不會(huì)放緩到導(dǎo)致軟著陸。
他預(yù)測(cè):“我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)軟著陸或硬著陸,因?yàn)閭袌?chǎng)已經(jīng)押注美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息,10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債利率下跌了逾100個(gè)基點(diǎn)?!?/p>
花旗投資研究(Citi Research)首席美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德魯·霍倫霍斯特(Andrew Hollenhorst)等華爾街看跌的聲音與此形成鮮明對(duì)比?;魝惢羲固鼐娣Q,最近的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)示著經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來。
他特別指出,私營(yíng)部門就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的三個(gè)月移動(dòng)平均值降至10萬人以下。
他寫道:“從一系列勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)中可以清楚地看出,就業(yè)市場(chǎng)正在降溫,這是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退前的典型模式?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
對(duì)股市來說,夏季的三伏天通常是糟糕的月份,今年也是如此。
上月初,由于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)引發(fā)了對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂,加上日元套息交易平倉(cāng),股市暴跌。九月伊始,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)經(jīng)歷了一年半以來最糟糕的一周。
但另一方面,這也為今年最后幾個(gè)月傳統(tǒng)上的大幅反彈埋下了伏筆。
Bespoke Investment Group的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,從歷史上看,10月份是股市開始出現(xiàn)最大漲幅的月份。
上周五的一份報(bào)告稱:“鑒于8月和9月歷來都是疲軟的月份,市場(chǎng)最終總是會(huì)從拋售中反彈,從直覺上講,這應(yīng)是合乎情理的?!?/p>
根據(jù)該公司的統(tǒng)計(jì),自二戰(zhàn)以來,股市出現(xiàn)61次漲幅在10%以上的反彈,其中19次始于10月份,占總數(shù)的三分之一,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于其他月份。3月份有10次,而其他月份都是個(gè)位數(shù)的中低水平。
內(nèi)德戴維斯研究公司(Ned Davis Research)同樣表示,股市很可能會(huì)在第四季度的季節(jié)性趨勢(shì)支持下出現(xiàn)“持續(xù)上升”。也就是說,10月到12月通常是一年中最強(qiáng)勁的三個(gè)月。
12月也是所謂的圣誕老人行情出現(xiàn)的時(shí)候,因?yàn)榧竟?jié)性的歡樂、對(duì)未來一年的樂觀情緒、新聞周期緩慢以及成交量減少往往會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)化為股市上漲。
到目前為止,幾個(gè)關(guān)鍵的市場(chǎng)基本面都得到了支撐。雖然就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)放緩,但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家指出,失業(yè)救濟(jì)申請(qǐng)人數(shù)較少,企業(yè)盈利強(qiáng)勁,國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值數(shù)據(jù)和預(yù)估強(qiáng)勁,零售銷售向好,工資上漲。
Infrastructure Capital Advisors首席執(zhí)行官杰伊·哈特菲爾德(Jay Hatfield)上周五在一份報(bào)告中說,最新的就業(yè)報(bào)告仍與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)相一致,并證實(shí)了他將標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的目標(biāo)價(jià)定為6000點(diǎn)的預(yù)測(cè),這意味著11%的上漲空間。
他的這一假設(shè)是,11月份的大選將導(dǎo)致政府分裂,民主黨和共和黨都不會(huì)大獲全勝。他還認(rèn)為,經(jīng)濟(jì)不僅會(huì)避免衰退,而且不會(huì)放緩到導(dǎo)致軟著陸。
他預(yù)測(cè):“我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)軟著陸或硬著陸,因?yàn)閭袌?chǎng)已經(jīng)押注美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息,10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債利率下跌了逾100個(gè)基點(diǎn)?!?/p>
花旗投資研究(Citi Research)首席美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德魯·霍倫霍斯特(Andrew Hollenhorst)等華爾街看跌的聲音與此形成鮮明對(duì)比?;魝惢羲固鼐娣Q,最近的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)示著經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來。
他特別指出,私營(yíng)部門就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的三個(gè)月移動(dòng)平均值降至10萬人以下。
他寫道:“從一系列勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)中可以清楚地看出,就業(yè)市場(chǎng)正在降溫,這是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退前的典型模式?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
The dog days of summer are usually bad months for the stock market, and that is playing out this year.
Early last month saw stocks tumble as U.S. economic data raised fears of a recession, and the yen carry trade unwound. And as September began, the S&P 500 had its worst week in a year and a half.
But on the flip side, that sets up the final months of the year as a time that has traditionally seen big rebounds.
According to Bespoke Investment Group, October has historically been the month where the biggest stock market surges have begun.
“This should make sense intuitively given that August and September have historically been weak months and the market has always eventually bounced back from sell-offs,” according to a note on Friday.
By its tally, there have been 61 rallies of 10% or more since World War II, and 19 of them started in October. That’s a third of the total and well above any other month. March has 10 while all the other months are in the low- to mid-single digits.
Similarly, Ned Davis Research said the stock market is likely to stage a “persistent ascent” that will be supported by seasonal trends in the fourth quarter. Namely, October through December is typically the year’s strong three-month period.
December is also when the so-called Santa Claus rally takes place as seasonal cheer, optimism about the year ahead, a slow news cycle, and thin trading volumes often translate to rising stocks.
So far, several key market fundamentals have held up. While job growth has slowed, economists point to low unemployment claims, robust corporate earnings, strong GDP readings and estimates, upbeat retail sales, and rising wages.
Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said in a note Friday that the latest jobs report is still consistent with a growing economy and validates his S&P 500 target of 6,000, which implies 11% upside.
That assumes the November election will result in divided government with neither a Democratic nor Republican sweep. He also thinks that not only will the economy avoid a recession, it won’t slow toward a soft landing.
“We continue to believe that there will be no landing in the US economy as the bond market has already cut rates for the Fed with the 10-year treasury declining by over 100 basis points,” he predicted.
That contrasts with more bearish voices on Wall Street like Citi Research chief U.S. economist Andrew Hollenhorst, who warned that the recent payroll data are signaling a recession is on the way.
In particular, he pointed to the three-month moving average of private-sector job gains dipping below 100,000.
“The takeaway from the range of labor market data is clear – the job market is cooling in a classic pattern that precedes recession,” he wrote.