高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)周一表示,人工智能芯片股英偉達(dá)的暴跌為投資者提供了一個(gè)極具吸引力的切入點(diǎn)。
公司創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官黃仁勛(Jensen Huang)發(fā)布了低調(diào)的第三季度業(yè)績指引,引發(fā)了人們對其快速增長的盈利可能無法持續(xù)的擔(dān)憂,自那以來,該公司的市值蒸發(fā)了17%。目前只有少數(shù)幾家公司在推動其人工智能芯片業(yè)務(wù)的蓬勃發(fā)展,其中僅四家客戶就占了英偉達(dá)全部營收的近一半。
高盛集團(tuán)半導(dǎo)體分析師哈里俊也(Toshiya Hari)在該行主辦的科技會議的非正式會議期間接受雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)采訪時(shí)表示,隨著亞馬遜(Amazon)、微軟(Microsoft)和谷歌(Google)這三大云計(jì)算超級巨頭以外的客戶開始投資自己的人工智能計(jì)算集群,他相信銷售額將會回升。
“對加速計(jì)算的需求仍然非常強(qiáng)勁?!彼芤槐硎荆厣炅藢υ摴傻摹百I入”建議,并認(rèn)為該股處于超賣狀態(tài)?!澳銜吹?,需求組合正擴(kuò)大到企業(yè),甚至主權(quán)國家?!?/p>
根據(jù)哈里俊也對英偉達(dá)2025年利潤的估計(jì),由于過去幾周的大幅回調(diào),英偉達(dá)的市盈率僅為20出頭。相比之下,根據(jù)雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)的數(shù)據(jù),特斯拉(Tesla)明年的市盈率一致預(yù)期為77倍。
定制硅片成為亟需芯片的英偉達(dá)客戶的最新趨勢
英偉達(dá)今年推動了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的上漲,但最近它成了自身成功的犧牲品。
生產(chǎn)瓶頸加上缺乏有意義的競爭,意味著客戶正在等待英偉達(dá)的Hopper人工智能訓(xùn)練芯片的供應(yīng)分配。那些能夠真正獲得這一寶貴資源的客戶則要付出高昂的代價(jià),導(dǎo)致英偉達(dá)的利潤率大幅上升。
由于對缺乏選擇感到不滿,包括亞馬遜和特斯拉在內(nèi)的科技公司正在自研定制芯片,而不是完全依賴英偉達(dá)。這些專有芯片可以在臺積電(TSMC)等專業(yè)代工廠制造,完全繞過英偉達(dá)。
哈里俊也承認(rèn),在“自制或外購”的問題上,障礙正在減少,但他認(rèn)為這種威脅被夸大了。
首先,與AMD的MI300系列等競爭對手相比,英偉達(dá)的H100占據(jù)了人工智能芯片市場90%的份額,因此沒有公司能與其技術(shù)相提并論。哈里俊也解釋說,那些正在研發(fā)定制芯片的客戶主要是為了解決其業(yè)務(wù)特有的計(jì)算任務(wù)。
雖然這將意味著英偉達(dá)本應(yīng)獲得的銷售損失,但這些專有芯片并不適合在公開市場上與英偉達(dá)直接競爭。
哈里俊也以谷歌為例,稱該公司正在自研人工智能芯片,以幫助改進(jìn)谷歌搜索。相比之下,該集團(tuán)的超大規(guī)模平臺谷歌云平臺對黃仁勛的芯片的需求并沒有減弱的跡象。
高盛集團(tuán)分析師表示:“他們?nèi)栽诖罅抠徺I英偉達(dá)的圖形處理器(GPU),亞馬遜也是如此。在商用芯片領(lǐng)域,英偉達(dá)是首選供應(yīng)商。即使與定制芯片相比,它們在創(chuàng)新速度方面有優(yōu)勢。”
高盛集團(tuán)看跌英特爾(Intel),敦促芯片制造商最終達(dá)到其指導(dǎo)目標(biāo)
與此同時(shí),哈里俊也仍然看跌英特爾,認(rèn)為首席執(zhí)行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)面臨著一場艱苦的戰(zhàn)斗。
英特爾不僅在產(chǎn)品方面輸?shù)袅伺c英偉達(dá)、AMD和高通(Qualcomm)的競爭,而且其代工業(yè)務(wù)在生產(chǎn)技術(shù)方面也沒有超越臺積電的明確途徑。
哈里俊也認(rèn)為,尋求外包芯片制造業(yè)務(wù)的公司不會冒險(xiǎn)將這家臺灣巨頭換成技術(shù)較差的英特爾。
他對英特爾的評級為“賣出”,但就如何在短期內(nèi)至少為該股提供支撐,他向基辛格提出了一些建議:
他說:“首先,該公司最好能開始實(shí)現(xiàn)其既定的指導(dǎo)目標(biāo)。它們經(jīng)常讓市場失望,這對股價(jià)絕非好事?!?/p>
《財(cái)富》雜志未能立即聯(lián)系到英偉達(dá)或英特爾置評。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)周一表示,人工智能芯片股英偉達(dá)的暴跌為投資者提供了一個(gè)極具吸引力的切入點(diǎn)。
公司創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官黃仁勛(Jensen Huang)發(fā)布了低調(diào)的第三季度業(yè)績指引,引發(fā)了人們對其快速增長的盈利可能無法持續(xù)的擔(dān)憂,自那以來,該公司的市值蒸發(fā)了17%。目前只有少數(shù)幾家公司在推動其人工智能芯片業(yè)務(wù)的蓬勃發(fā)展,其中僅四家客戶就占了英偉達(dá)全部營收的近一半。
高盛集團(tuán)半導(dǎo)體分析師哈里俊也(Toshiya Hari)在該行主辦的科技會議的非正式會議期間接受雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)采訪時(shí)表示,隨著亞馬遜(Amazon)、微軟(Microsoft)和谷歌(Google)這三大云計(jì)算超級巨頭以外的客戶開始投資自己的人工智能計(jì)算集群,他相信銷售額將會回升。
“對加速計(jì)算的需求仍然非常強(qiáng)勁?!彼芤槐硎?,重申了對該股的“買入”建議,并認(rèn)為該股處于超賣狀態(tài)?!澳銜吹剑枨蠼M合正擴(kuò)大到企業(yè),甚至主權(quán)國家?!?/p>
根據(jù)哈里俊也對英偉達(dá)2025年利潤的估計(jì),由于過去幾周的大幅回調(diào),英偉達(dá)的市盈率僅為20出頭。相比之下,根據(jù)雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)的數(shù)據(jù),特斯拉(Tesla)明年的市盈率一致預(yù)期為77倍。
定制硅片成為亟需芯片的英偉達(dá)客戶的最新趨勢
英偉達(dá)今年推動了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的上漲,但最近它成了自身成功的犧牲品。
生產(chǎn)瓶頸加上缺乏有意義的競爭,意味著客戶正在等待英偉達(dá)的Hopper人工智能訓(xùn)練芯片的供應(yīng)分配。那些能夠真正獲得這一寶貴資源的客戶則要付出高昂的代價(jià),導(dǎo)致英偉達(dá)的利潤率大幅上升。
由于對缺乏選擇感到不滿,包括亞馬遜和特斯拉在內(nèi)的科技公司正在自研定制芯片,而不是完全依賴英偉達(dá)。這些專有芯片可以在臺積電(TSMC)等專業(yè)代工廠制造,完全繞過英偉達(dá)。
哈里俊也承認(rèn),在“自制或外購”的問題上,障礙正在減少,但他認(rèn)為這種威脅被夸大了。
首先,與AMD的MI300系列等競爭對手相比,英偉達(dá)的H100占據(jù)了人工智能芯片市場90%的份額,因此沒有公司能與其技術(shù)相提并論。哈里俊也解釋說,那些正在研發(fā)定制芯片的客戶主要是為了解決其業(yè)務(wù)特有的計(jì)算任務(wù)。
雖然這將意味著英偉達(dá)本應(yīng)獲得的銷售損失,但這些專有芯片并不適合在公開市場上與英偉達(dá)直接競爭。
哈里俊也以谷歌為例,稱該公司正在自研人工智能芯片,以幫助改進(jìn)谷歌搜索。相比之下,該集團(tuán)的超大規(guī)模平臺谷歌云平臺對黃仁勛的芯片的需求并沒有減弱的跡象。
高盛集團(tuán)分析師表示:“他們?nèi)栽诖罅抠徺I英偉達(dá)的圖形處理器(GPU),亞馬遜也是如此。在商用芯片領(lǐng)域,英偉達(dá)是首選供應(yīng)商。即使與定制芯片相比,它們在創(chuàng)新速度方面有優(yōu)勢?!?/p>
高盛集團(tuán)看跌英特爾(Intel),敦促芯片制造商最終達(dá)到其指導(dǎo)目標(biāo)
與此同時(shí),哈里俊也仍然看跌英特爾,認(rèn)為首席執(zhí)行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)面臨著一場艱苦的戰(zhàn)斗。
英特爾不僅在產(chǎn)品方面輸?shù)袅伺c英偉達(dá)、AMD和高通(Qualcomm)的競爭,而且其代工業(yè)務(wù)在生產(chǎn)技術(shù)方面也沒有超越臺積電的明確途徑。
哈里俊也認(rèn)為,尋求外包芯片制造業(yè)務(wù)的公司不會冒險(xiǎn)將這家臺灣巨頭換成技術(shù)較差的英特爾。
他對英特爾的評級為“賣出”,但就如何在短期內(nèi)至少為該股提供支撐,他向基辛格提出了一些建議:
他說:“首先,該公司最好能開始實(shí)現(xiàn)其既定的指導(dǎo)目標(biāo)。它們經(jīng)常讓市場失望,這對股價(jià)絕非好事?!?/p>
《財(cái)富》雜志未能立即聯(lián)系到英偉達(dá)或英特爾置評。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
The brutal selloff in AI-chip stock Nvidia offers investors an attractive entry point, Goldman Sachs argued on Monday.
Founder and CEO Jensen Huang has seen his company lose 17% of its market cap since issuing muted third-quarter guidance that sparked concerns its rapid earnings growth may not be sustainable. Only a handful of companies are currently fueling its booming AI chip business, with just four customers constituting nearly half of all Nvidia’s revenue.
Speaking with Yahoo Finance on the sidelines of a tech conference hosted by his bank, Goldman Sachs semiconductor analyst Toshiya Hari remained confident sales will pick up as customers outside of the three cloud hyperscalers—Amazon, Microsoft, and Google—start to invest in their own AI compute clusters.
“Demand for accelerated computing continues to be really strong,” he said on Monday, reaffirming his “buy” recommendation on the stock and arguing the stock was oversold. “You are seeing a broadening in the demand portfolio into enterprise, even into sovereign states.”
Based on Hari’s estimates for Nvidia’s 2025 profits, Nvidia’s price-to-earnings multiple is in the low 20s thanks to the sharp pullback over the past couple of weeks. By comparison, Tesla trades at 77 times next year’s consensus earnings estimates, according to Yahoo Finance.
Custom silicon the latest trend among chip-starved Nvidia customers
Nvidia has driven this year’s gains in the S&P 500 index, but lately it has become a victim of its own success.
A combination of production bottlenecks and a lack of meaningful competition means customers are waiting to be allocated supply of Nvidia’s Hopper AI training chips. Those that are able to actually get their hands on this prized resource are paying through the nose, causing profit margins at Nvidia to balloon.
Unhappy with the lack of choice, tech companies—including Amazon and Tesla—are developing their own custom silicon rather than depending entirely on Nvidia. These proprietary chips can be fabricated at specialized foundries like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), bypassing Nvidia entirely.
Hari acknowledged barriers are dropping when it comes to the make-or-buy question, but argued the threat is overblown.
For one, Nvidia H100s command a 90% share of the AI chip market versus rivals like AMD’s MI300 series, so no one comes close to its technology. Those customers that are in the process of developing custom silicon are primarily interested in solving compute tasks unique to their businesses, Hari explained.
While these would represent lost sales that would have otherwise gone to Nvidia, the proprietary chips would not be suited for competing with Nvidia directly on the open market.
Hari cited Google as an example, saying the company is working on its own AI chips to help improve Google Search. By comparison, the group’s hyperscaler, Google Cloud Platform, showed no signs of a diminished appetite for Huang’s chips.
“They’re still buying a boatload of Nvidia GPUs, and you can make the same case for Amazon,” the Goldman Sachs analyst said. “Within merchant silicon, Nvidia is the go-to. And even versus custom silicon, they’ve got the edge in terms of pace of innovation.”
Goldman bearish on Intel, urging chipmaker to finally hit its guidance
At the same time, Hari remained bearish on Intel, arguing CEO Pat Gelsinger has an uphill battle.
Not only is Intel is losing the race with Nvidia, AMD, and Qualcomm on the product side, but its foundry business has no clear path to surpassing TSMC in terms of production technology.
Companies looking to outsource fabrication of their chips would not risk swapping out the Taiwanese giant for the inferior technology of Intel, argued Hari.
He rates Intel a “sell,” but offered some advice to Gelsinger on how to at least put a floor under the stock in the near term:
“For starters it would help for the company to start hitting what they guide to,” he said. “They’ve disappointed the market quite frequently, and that’s never good for a stock price.”
Neither Nvidia nor Intel could immediately be reached by Fortune for comment.