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美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)議息會(huì)議前通脹降至三年低點(diǎn)

美聯(lián)社
2024-09-14

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能在即將召開(kāi)的會(huì)議上降息。

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美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能在即將召開(kāi)的會(huì)議上降息。圖片來(lái)源:NATHAN HOWARD/GETTY IMAGES

隨著物價(jià)同比漲幅創(chuàng)下三年來(lái)的新低,美國(guó)通脹后疫情時(shí)代的飆升勢(shì)頭在上個(gè)月進(jìn)一步緩解,這為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)下周降息掃清了道路。

美國(guó)勞工部(Labor Department)周三公布的報(bào)告顯示,8月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格較上年同期上漲2.5%。這是連續(xù)第五年下降,也是自2021年2月以來(lái)的最小增幅。從7月到8月,價(jià)格僅上漲了0.2%。

剔除波動(dòng)較大的食品和能源成本,8月份所謂的核心價(jià)格較上年同期上漲3.2%,與7月份持平。上月核心價(jià)格環(huán)比上漲0.3%,較7月份0.2%的漲幅有所回升。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家密切關(guān)注核心價(jià)格,原因是核心價(jià)格通常能更好地反映未來(lái)的通脹趨勢(shì)。

幾個(gè)月來(lái),通脹率下降逐漸緩解了美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的壓力(他們受到了三年前爆發(fā)的價(jià)格飆升的沖擊,尤其是食品、汽油、租金和其他生活必需品)。通脹率在2022年年中達(dá)到9.1%的峰值,為40年來(lái)的最高水平。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員已經(jīng)表示,他們對(duì)通脹率回落到2%的目標(biāo)越來(lái)越有信心,目前正將重點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)向支持正在逐步降溫的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)。因此,政策制定者準(zhǔn)備開(kāi)始將關(guān)鍵利率從23年來(lái)的高位下調(diào),希望以此提振經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和就業(yè)。

市場(chǎng)普遍預(yù)期美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)下周將小幅降息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。隨著時(shí)間的推移,一系列的降息措施應(yīng)該會(huì)降低整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的借貸成本,包括抵押貸款、汽車(chē)貸款和信用卡。

最新的通脹數(shù)據(jù)可能會(huì)在最后幾周的總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選中發(fā)揮作用。前總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)將通脹飆升歸咎于副總統(tǒng)卡瑪拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)。2021年初,全球供應(yīng)鏈中斷,導(dǎo)致零部件和勞動(dòng)力嚴(yán)重短缺,最終導(dǎo)致通脹飆升。哈里斯提議為購(gòu)房者和建筑商提供補(bǔ)貼,以降低住房成本,并支持聯(lián)邦政府禁止食品雜貨價(jià)格欺詐。特朗普曾表示,他將提高能源產(chǎn)量,以此來(lái)降低整體通脹。

美國(guó)能源通脹管理局(Energy Inflation Administration)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,8月份通脹再次放緩的一大關(guān)鍵原因是,上個(gè)月每加侖汽油價(jià)格下跌了約10美分,全美平均油價(jià)約為3.29美元。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家還預(yù)計(jì),政府針對(duì)食品雜貨價(jià)格和租金采取的措施將放緩上漲速度。雖然食品價(jià)格比疫情前上漲了約20%,但在過(guò)去一年中幾乎沒(méi)有變化。

通脹放緩的另一個(gè)潛在驅(qū)動(dòng)因素是,隨著一批新建公寓竣工,新公寓租賃成本已開(kāi)始降溫。

根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)公司Redfin的數(shù)據(jù),8月份新租約的租金中位數(shù)僅較上年同期上漲0.9%,至每月1645美元。但政府采取的措施包括所有類(lèi)型租金,包括那些已在公寓居住數(shù)月或數(shù)年的人的租金。新租金增速的放緩需要一段時(shí)間才能體現(xiàn)在政府的數(shù)據(jù)中。根據(jù)政府公布的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù),7月份租金較上年同期上漲5.1%。

美國(guó)人的工資增長(zhǎng)也更加緩慢,年均增長(zhǎng)約3.5%,仍是相對(duì)穩(wěn)健的速度——這降低了通脹壓力。兩年前,工資增長(zhǎng)率曾一度突破5%,這一水平可能迫使企業(yè)大幅提價(jià),以彌補(bǔ)勞動(dòng)力成本的上升。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)在上個(gè)月的一次高調(diào)講話中指出,通脹正在得到控制,并暗示就業(yè)市場(chǎng)不太可能成為通脹壓力的來(lái)源。

過(guò)去三年來(lái),消費(fèi)者推動(dòng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。但是,他們愈加通過(guò)舉債來(lái)維持消費(fèi)和信用卡支出,汽車(chē)貸款的不良信貸率也在上升,這讓人擔(dān)心他們可能很快被迫控制支出。消費(fèi)者支出減少可能導(dǎo)致更多雇主凍結(jié)招聘,甚至裁員。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

隨著物價(jià)同比漲幅創(chuàng)下三年來(lái)的新低,美國(guó)通脹后疫情時(shí)代的飆升勢(shì)頭在上個(gè)月進(jìn)一步緩解,這為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)下周降息掃清了道路。

美國(guó)勞工部(Labor Department)周三公布的報(bào)告顯示,8月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格較上年同期上漲2.5%。這是連續(xù)第五年下降,也是自2021年2月以來(lái)的最小增幅。從7月到8月,價(jià)格僅上漲了0.2%。

剔除波動(dòng)較大的食品和能源成本,8月份所謂的核心價(jià)格較上年同期上漲3.2%,與7月份持平。上月核心價(jià)格環(huán)比上漲0.3%,較7月份0.2%的漲幅有所回升。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家密切關(guān)注核心價(jià)格,原因是核心價(jià)格通常能更好地反映未來(lái)的通脹趨勢(shì)。

幾個(gè)月來(lái),通脹率下降逐漸緩解了美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的壓力(他們受到了三年前爆發(fā)的價(jià)格飆升的沖擊,尤其是食品、汽油、租金和其他生活必需品)。通脹率在2022年年中達(dá)到9.1%的峰值,為40年來(lái)的最高水平。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員已經(jīng)表示,他們對(duì)通脹率回落到2%的目標(biāo)越來(lái)越有信心,目前正將重點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)向支持正在逐步降溫的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)。因此,政策制定者準(zhǔn)備開(kāi)始將關(guān)鍵利率從23年來(lái)的高位下調(diào),希望以此提振經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和就業(yè)。

市場(chǎng)普遍預(yù)期美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)下周將小幅降息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。隨著時(shí)間的推移,一系列的降息措施應(yīng)該會(huì)降低整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的借貸成本,包括抵押貸款、汽車(chē)貸款和信用卡。

最新的通脹數(shù)據(jù)可能會(huì)在最后幾周的總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選中發(fā)揮作用。前總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)將通脹飆升歸咎于副總統(tǒng)卡瑪拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)。2021年初,全球供應(yīng)鏈中斷,導(dǎo)致零部件和勞動(dòng)力嚴(yán)重短缺,最終導(dǎo)致通脹飆升。哈里斯提議為購(gòu)房者和建筑商提供補(bǔ)貼,以降低住房成本,并支持聯(lián)邦政府禁止食品雜貨價(jià)格欺詐。特朗普曾表示,他將提高能源產(chǎn)量,以此來(lái)降低整體通脹。

美國(guó)能源通脹管理局(Energy Inflation Administration)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,8月份通脹再次放緩的一大關(guān)鍵原因是,上個(gè)月每加侖汽油價(jià)格下跌了約10美分,全美平均油價(jià)約為3.29美元。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家還預(yù)計(jì),政府針對(duì)食品雜貨價(jià)格和租金采取的措施將放緩上漲速度。雖然食品價(jià)格比疫情前上漲了約20%,但在過(guò)去一年中幾乎沒(méi)有變化。

通脹放緩的另一個(gè)潛在驅(qū)動(dòng)因素是,隨著一批新建公寓竣工,新公寓租賃成本已開(kāi)始降溫。

根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)公司Redfin的數(shù)據(jù),8月份新租約的租金中位數(shù)僅較上年同期上漲0.9%,至每月1645美元。但政府采取的措施包括所有類(lèi)型租金,包括那些已在公寓居住數(shù)月或數(shù)年的人的租金。新租金增速的放緩需要一段時(shí)間才能體現(xiàn)在政府的數(shù)據(jù)中。根據(jù)政府公布的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù),7月份租金較上年同期上漲5.1%。

美國(guó)人的工資增長(zhǎng)也更加緩慢,年均增長(zhǎng)約3.5%,仍是相對(duì)穩(wěn)健的速度——這降低了通脹壓力。兩年前,工資增長(zhǎng)率曾一度突破5%,這一水平可能迫使企業(yè)大幅提價(jià),以彌補(bǔ)勞動(dòng)力成本的上升。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)在上個(gè)月的一次高調(diào)講話中指出,通脹正在得到控制,并暗示就業(yè)市場(chǎng)不太可能成為通脹壓力的來(lái)源。

過(guò)去三年來(lái),消費(fèi)者推動(dòng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。但是,他們愈加通過(guò)舉債來(lái)維持消費(fèi)和信用卡支出,汽車(chē)貸款的不良信貸率也在上升,這讓人擔(dān)心他們可能很快被迫控制支出。消費(fèi)者支出減少可能導(dǎo)致更多雇主凍結(jié)招聘,甚至裁員。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

The post-pandemic spike in U.S. inflation eased further last month as year-over-year price increases reached a three-year low, clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week.

Wednesday’s report from the Labor Department showed that consumer prices rose 2.5% in August from a year earlier. It was the fifth straight annual drop and the smallest such increase since February 2021. From July to August, prices rose just 0.2%.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core prices rose 3.2% in August from 12 months earlier, the same as in July. On a month-to-month basis, core prices rose 0.3% last month, a pickup from July’s 0.2% increase. Economists closely watch core prices, which typically provide a better read of future inflation trends.

For months, falling inflation has provided gradual relief to America’s consumers, who were stung by the price surges that erupted three years ago, particularly for food, gas, rent and other necessities. Inflation peaked in mid-2022 at 9.1%, the highest rate in four decades.

Fed officials have signaled that they’re increasingly confident that inflation is falling back to their 2% target and are now shifting their focus to supporting the job market, which is steadily cooling. As a result, the policymakers are poised to begin cutting their key rate from its 23-year high in hopes of bolstering growth and hiring.

A modest quarter-point cut is widely expected next week. Over time, a series of rate cuts should reduce the cost of borrowing across the economy, including for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

The latest inflation figures could inject themselves into the presidential race in its final weeks. Former President Donald Trump has heaped blame on Vice President Kamala Harris for the jump in inflation, which erupted in early 2021 as global supply chains seized up, causing severe shortages of parts and labor. Harris has proposed subsidies for home buyers and builders in an effort to ease housing costs and backs a federal ban on price-gouging for groceries. Trump has said he would boost energy production to try to reduce overall inflation.

A key reason why inflation eased again in August was that gas prices tumbled by about 10 cents a gallon last month, according to the Energy Inflation Administration, to a national average of about $3.29.

Economists also expect the government’s measures of grocery prices and rents to rise more slowly. Though food prices are roughly 20% more expensive than before the pandemic, they have barely budged over the past year.

Another potential driver of slower inflation is that the cost of new apartment leases has started to cool as a stream of newly built apartments have been completed.

According to the real estate brokerage Redfin, the median rent for a new lease rose just 0.9% in August from a year earlier, to $1,645 a month. But the government’s measure includes all rents, including those for people who have been in their apartments for months or years. It takes time for the slowdown in new rents to show up in the government’s data. In July, rental costs rose 5.1% from a year ago, according to the government’s consumer price index.

Americans’ paychecks are also growing more slowly — an average of about 3.5% annually, still a solid pace — which reduces inflationary pressures. Two years ago, wage growth was topping 5%, a level that can force businesses to sharply raise prices to cover their higher labor costs.

In a high-profile speech last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that inflation was coming under control and suggested that the job market was unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure.

Consumers have propelled the economy for the past three years. But they are increasingly turning to debt to maintain their spending and credit card, and auto delinquencies are rising, raising concerns that they may have to rein in their spending soon. Reduced consumer spending could lead more employers to freeze their hiring or even cut jobs.

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