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專(zhuān)家:美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息后,市場(chǎng)正迎來(lái)“涅槃”

Will Daniel
2024-09-24

投資者的擔(dān)憂(yōu)似乎得到了緩解。

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2024年9月18日(星期三),美國(guó)佐治亞州亞特蘭大市,一個(gè)寫(xiě)著“我們正在招聘”的廣告牌。圖片來(lái)源:Photographer: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images

上周三,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)自2020年3月以來(lái)首次降息。股市起初并不接受這一舉措,美國(guó)三大股指在震蕩交易后均收跌。

至關(guān)重要的是,雖然不能對(duì)單日股市波動(dòng)進(jìn)行過(guò)多解讀,但投資者對(duì)上周三股市劇烈波動(dòng)的擔(dān)心主要有以下幾點(diǎn)。

首先,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)決定大幅降息50個(gè)基點(diǎn),而不是更常見(jiàn)的25個(gè)基點(diǎn),這被一些人視為央行“落后于曲線(xiàn)”的證據(jù)——這意味著央行本應(yīng)在幾個(gè)月前就降息以刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。

其次,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)2025年底前降息的預(yù)期較為溫和,遠(yuǎn)低于投資者對(duì)持續(xù)大幅降息的預(yù)期,這可能令一些市場(chǎng)參與者感到恐慌,他們擔(dān)心高利率會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)快放緩。

然而,上周四,投資者的擔(dān)憂(yōu)似乎得到了緩解。隨著初請(qǐng)失業(yè)金人數(shù)降至5月以來(lái)的最低水平,制造業(yè)調(diào)查顯示該行業(yè)的韌性強(qiáng)于預(yù)期,一項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵的薪資指標(biāo)上升,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)看起來(lái)相對(duì)強(qiáng)勁。

亞德尼研究公司(Yardeni Research)首席市場(chǎng)策略師里克·沃勒斯坦(Eric Wallerstein)說(shuō),事實(shí)上,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)看起來(lái)一點(diǎn)也不落后于曲線(xiàn)。

“如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和市場(chǎng)因?yàn)闅v史押著同樣的韻腳或重演而極度擔(dān)心失業(yè)問(wèn)題……如果這是我們的主要擔(dān)憂(yōu)。我們剛得到的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,實(shí)際上,制造業(yè)已經(jīng)在自行改善,失業(yè)率數(shù)據(jù)是自夏季以來(lái)最好的,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息50個(gè)基點(diǎn),我們正在實(shí)現(xiàn)某種形式的涅槃,對(duì)吧?”他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志。“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在削弱我們多年來(lái)見(jiàn)過(guò)的最強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一?!?/p>

三大跡象表明美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)具有驚人的韌性

初請(qǐng)失業(yè)金人數(shù)

長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),投資者一直擔(dān)心持續(xù)的高利率會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩,最終引發(fā)一連串的裁員潮。隨著申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)穩(wěn)步上升,他們一度有證據(jù)支持自己的理論。

但上周情況有所不同。截至9月14日當(dāng)周初請(qǐng)失業(yè)金人數(shù)(衡量裁員的最佳指標(biāo)之一)為21.9萬(wàn)人。這是自5月份以來(lái)的最低水平,低于之前的23.1萬(wàn)。

與此同時(shí),失業(yè)人數(shù)縮減至6月初以來(lái)的水平。截至9月7日的當(dāng)周,投保失業(yè)人數(shù),即積極領(lǐng)取失業(yè)救濟(jì)金的人數(shù),減少了1.4萬(wàn)人,降至182.9萬(wàn)人。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)E*TRADE和投資董事總經(jīng)理克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)通過(guò)電子郵件向《財(cái)富》雜志透露了上述數(shù)據(jù):“自‘大幅’降息以來(lái)的首個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),應(yīng)該會(huì)讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)感到滿(mǎn)意。申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)金人數(shù)低于預(yù)期不會(huì)立即引發(fā)人們對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)過(guò)度放緩的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。”

沃勒斯坦也贊同這一觀點(diǎn)?!懊恐艹跽?qǐng)失業(yè)金人數(shù)和續(xù)請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)金人數(shù)都在下降……人們擔(dān)心失業(yè)率會(huì)繼續(xù)攀升。事實(shí)并非如此。裁員數(shù)據(jù)沒(méi)有顯示出經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩或衰退的跡象?!?/p>

制造業(yè)調(diào)查

多年來(lái),美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的制造業(yè)一直在處理令人頭疼的問(wèn)題,從疫情時(shí)期的供應(yīng)鏈中斷到勞動(dòng)力成本上升。由于該行業(yè)通常被視為衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)健康狀況的風(fēng)向標(biāo),制造業(yè)的活動(dòng)疲軟引發(fā)了一些人對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)持久性的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。

不過(guò),最近這些擔(dān)憂(yōu)似乎再次有所緩和。上周四,費(fèi)城聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行制造業(yè)商業(yè)前景調(diào)查(衡量特拉華州、新澤西州南部、賓夕法尼亞州中部和東部制造業(yè)活動(dòng)的指標(biāo))扭轉(zhuǎn)了夏季的下滑趨勢(shì),轉(zhuǎn)為積極。

此前,紐約聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行上周一公布的紐約帝國(guó)制造業(yè)指數(shù)顯示,該地區(qū)的商業(yè)活動(dòng)在一年多以來(lái)首次出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)。亞德尼研究公司的沃勒斯坦指出,對(duì)那些擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟或美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)落后于曲線(xiàn)的看跌投資者來(lái)說(shuō),多項(xiàng)制造業(yè)調(diào)查中的“活動(dòng)改善”都是好跡象。

工資增長(zhǎng)

在從2022年初9.3%的峰值持續(xù)下降到今年5月的3.1%之后,工資增長(zhǎng)也可能最終出現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)。Indeed的工資追蹤器(Wage Tracker)顯示,8月份公布的工資增長(zhǎng)了3.3%,該公司稱(chēng)這是“廣泛的”企穩(wěn)。

Indeed經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家尼克·邦克(Nick Bunker)和艾莉森·施里瓦斯塔瓦(Allison Shrivastava)在評(píng)論該數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)寫(xiě)道:“簡(jiǎn)而言之,隨著公布的工資以與疫情前同樣穩(wěn)定和可持續(xù)的速度增長(zhǎng),Indeed工資追蹤器顯示,美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)可能正步入正軌。”

亞德尼研究公司的沃勒斯坦再次指出,這一數(shù)據(jù)是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的良好信號(hào),誠(chéng)然也有助于緩解投資者對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)惡化的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。他說(shuō):“實(shí)際工資在上漲,跑贏了通脹,[消費(fèi)者]也在進(jìn)行消費(fèi)?!?/p>

穩(wěn)定的工資增長(zhǎng)、制造業(yè)的韌性以及缺乏裁員激增的證據(jù),都讓沃勒斯坦相信,市場(chǎng)可以繼續(xù)上漲,盡管會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些間歇性的波動(dòng)。他表示:“只要經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)于預(yù)期,你就無(wú)需擔(dān)心。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

上周三,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)自2020年3月以來(lái)首次降息。股市起初并不接受這一舉措,美國(guó)三大股指在震蕩交易后均收跌。

至關(guān)重要的是,雖然不能對(duì)單日股市波動(dòng)進(jìn)行過(guò)多解讀,但投資者對(duì)上周三股市劇烈波動(dòng)的擔(dān)心主要有以下幾點(diǎn)。

首先,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)決定大幅降息50個(gè)基點(diǎn),而不是更常見(jiàn)的25個(gè)基點(diǎn),這被一些人視為央行“落后于曲線(xiàn)”的證據(jù)——這意味著央行本應(yīng)在幾個(gè)月前就降息以刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。

其次,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)2025年底前降息的預(yù)期較為溫和,遠(yuǎn)低于投資者對(duì)持續(xù)大幅降息的預(yù)期,這可能令一些市場(chǎng)參與者感到恐慌,他們擔(dān)心高利率會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)快放緩。

然而,上周四,投資者的擔(dān)憂(yōu)似乎得到了緩解。隨著初請(qǐng)失業(yè)金人數(shù)降至5月以來(lái)的最低水平,制造業(yè)調(diào)查顯示該行業(yè)的韌性強(qiáng)于預(yù)期,一項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵的薪資指標(biāo)上升,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)看起來(lái)相對(duì)強(qiáng)勁。

亞德尼研究公司(Yardeni Research)首席市場(chǎng)策略師里克·沃勒斯坦(Eric Wallerstein)說(shuō),事實(shí)上,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)看起來(lái)一點(diǎn)也不落后于曲線(xiàn)。

“如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和市場(chǎng)因?yàn)闅v史押著同樣的韻腳或重演而極度擔(dān)心失業(yè)問(wèn)題……如果這是我們的主要擔(dān)憂(yōu)。我們剛得到的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,實(shí)際上,制造業(yè)已經(jīng)在自行改善,失業(yè)率數(shù)據(jù)是自夏季以來(lái)最好的,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息50個(gè)基點(diǎn),我們正在實(shí)現(xiàn)某種形式的涅槃,對(duì)吧?”他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志?!懊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)正在削弱我們多年來(lái)見(jiàn)過(guò)的最強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一?!?/p>

三大跡象表明美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)具有驚人的韌性

初請(qǐng)失業(yè)金人數(shù)

長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),投資者一直擔(dān)心持續(xù)的高利率會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩,最終引發(fā)一連串的裁員潮。隨著申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)穩(wěn)步上升,他們一度有證據(jù)支持自己的理論。

但上周情況有所不同。截至9月14日當(dāng)周初請(qǐng)失業(yè)金人數(shù)(衡量裁員的最佳指標(biāo)之一)為21.9萬(wàn)人。這是自5月份以來(lái)的最低水平,低于之前的23.1萬(wàn)。

與此同時(shí),失業(yè)人數(shù)縮減至6月初以來(lái)的水平。截至9月7日的當(dāng)周,投保失業(yè)人數(shù),即積極領(lǐng)取失業(yè)救濟(jì)金的人數(shù),減少了1.4萬(wàn)人,降至182.9萬(wàn)人。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)E*TRADE和投資董事總經(jīng)理克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)通過(guò)電子郵件向《財(cái)富》雜志透露了上述數(shù)據(jù):“自‘大幅’降息以來(lái)的首個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),應(yīng)該會(huì)讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)感到滿(mǎn)意。申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)金人數(shù)低于預(yù)期不會(huì)立即引發(fā)人們對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)過(guò)度放緩的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。”

沃勒斯坦也贊同這一觀點(diǎn)?!懊恐艹跽?qǐng)失業(yè)金人數(shù)和續(xù)請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)金人數(shù)都在下降……人們擔(dān)心失業(yè)率會(huì)繼續(xù)攀升。事實(shí)并非如此。裁員數(shù)據(jù)沒(méi)有顯示出經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩或衰退的跡象?!?/p>

制造業(yè)調(diào)查

多年來(lái),美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的制造業(yè)一直在處理令人頭疼的問(wèn)題,從疫情時(shí)期的供應(yīng)鏈中斷到勞動(dòng)力成本上升。由于該行業(yè)通常被視為衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)健康狀況的風(fēng)向標(biāo),制造業(yè)的活動(dòng)疲軟引發(fā)了一些人對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)持久性的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。

不過(guò),最近這些擔(dān)憂(yōu)似乎再次有所緩和。上周四,費(fèi)城聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行制造業(yè)商業(yè)前景調(diào)查(衡量特拉華州、新澤西州南部、賓夕法尼亞州中部和東部制造業(yè)活動(dòng)的指標(biāo))扭轉(zhuǎn)了夏季的下滑趨勢(shì),轉(zhuǎn)為積極。

此前,紐約聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行上周一公布的紐約帝國(guó)制造業(yè)指數(shù)顯示,該地區(qū)的商業(yè)活動(dòng)在一年多以來(lái)首次出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)。亞德尼研究公司的沃勒斯坦指出,對(duì)那些擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟或美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)落后于曲線(xiàn)的看跌投資者來(lái)說(shuō),多項(xiàng)制造業(yè)調(diào)查中的“活動(dòng)改善”都是好跡象。

工資增長(zhǎng)

在從2022年初9.3%的峰值持續(xù)下降到今年5月的3.1%之后,工資增長(zhǎng)也可能最終出現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)。Indeed的工資追蹤器(Wage Tracker)顯示,8月份公布的工資增長(zhǎng)了3.3%,該公司稱(chēng)這是“廣泛的”企穩(wěn)。

Indeed經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家尼克·邦克(Nick Bunker)和艾莉森·施里瓦斯塔瓦(Allison Shrivastava)在評(píng)論該數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)寫(xiě)道:“簡(jiǎn)而言之,隨著公布的工資以與疫情前同樣穩(wěn)定和可持續(xù)的速度增長(zhǎng),Indeed工資追蹤器顯示,美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)可能正步入正軌。”

亞德尼研究公司的沃勒斯坦再次指出,這一數(shù)據(jù)是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的良好信號(hào),誠(chéng)然也有助于緩解投資者對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)惡化的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。他說(shuō):“實(shí)際工資在上漲,跑贏了通脹,[消費(fèi)者]也在進(jìn)行消費(fèi)?!?/p>

穩(wěn)定的工資增長(zhǎng)、制造業(yè)的韌性以及缺乏裁員激增的證據(jù),都讓沃勒斯坦相信,市場(chǎng)可以繼續(xù)上漲,盡管會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些間歇性的波動(dòng)。他表示:“只要經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)于預(yù)期,你就無(wú)需擔(dān)心。"”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020 on Wednesday. Stocks balked at the move initially, with all three major U.S. market indices ending the day in the red after a volatile trading session.

While it’s important not to read too far into single-day stock market gyrations, there were a few key investor fears blamed for Wednesday’s wild ride.

First, the Fed’s decision to opt for an outsized 50 basis point rate cut, instead of the more common 25 basis points, was seen by some as evidence that the central bank is “behind the curve”—meaning it should have cut rates months ago to stimulate the economy.

Second, the Fed’s more modest projections for interest rate cuts through the end of 2025—which were well below investors’ expectations for ongoing, aggressive cuts—may have spooked some market participants who fear high rates are slowing the economy too quickly.

On Thursday, however, investors’ fears seemed to have been assuaged. With initial jobless claims falling to their lowest level since May, manufacturing surveys demonstrating more resilience in that sector than anticipated, and a key wage tracker rising, the economy is looking relatively robust.

In fact, the Fed doesn’t look behind the curve at all, according to Eric Wallerstein, chief markets strategist at Yardeni Research.

“If the Fed and the market are extremely worried about unemployment because history rhymes or repeats…if that’s our main worry. And then we got data this morning showing, actually, the manufacturing sector is already improving on its own, unemployment data is the best since before the summer, and the Fed cut 50 basis points, you’re getting a kind of Nirvana, right?” he told Fortune. “The Fed is cutting into one of the stronger economies we’ve seen in years”

3 signs of a surprisingly resilient U.S. economy

Initial jobless claims

Investors have long feared that a sustained period of elevated interest rates will slow the economy, and eventually spark a string of layoffs. And for a time, they had some evidence to back their theory, with jobless claims steadily rising.

But this week was different. Initial jobless claims, one of the best measures of layoffs, came in at 219,000 for the week ending September 14. That’s the lowest level since May, and down from 231,000 the prior week.

Meanwhile, unemployment rolls shrunk to levels last seen in early June. Insured unemployment, or the number of people actively receiving unemployment benefits, dropped 14,000 to 1,829,000 for the week ending September 7.

“The first economic data point since the ‘jumbo’ rate cut should please the Fed,” Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, told Fortune of the data via email. “Lower-than-expected jobless claims won’t raise any immediate concerns about the labor market slowing too much.”

Wallerstein echoed that view. “Initial weekly [jobless] claims and continuing [jobless] claims now are falling…people were worried the climb would continue. That’s not the case. There’s no slow down, recession evidence in the layoff data.”

Manufacturing surveys

The manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy has dealt with headaches for years, from COVID-era supply chain disruptions to rising labor costs. With the sector often seen as a gauge of the economy’s health, weak activity has led to some concerns about the durability of U.S. economic growth.

But, once again, those fears seem to have been tempered of late. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey—a gauge of activity in the manufacturing sector in Delaware, southern New Jersey and central and eastern Pennsylvania—turned positive, bucking its summer downtrend.

This comes after the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed business activity growth in that region for the first time in more than a year on Monday. Yardeni Research’s Wallerstein noted this “improving activity” in multiple manufacturing surveys is a good sign for any bearish investors that were concerned about economic weakness, or the Fed being behind the curve.

Wage growth

After falling consistently from a peak of 9.3% at the start of 2022 to just 3.1% in May of this year, wage growth may also finally be turning the corner. Indeed’s Wage Tracker shows posted wages rose 3.3% in August in what the company labeled a “broad-based” stabilization.

“In short, with posted wages growing at the same steady and sustainable pace we saw before the pandemic, the Indeed Wage Tracker is signaling the U.S. labor market may be settling into a groove,” Indeed economists Nick Bunker and Allison Shrivastava wrote of the data.

Yardeni’s Research’s Wallerstein argued, once again, this data is a good sign for economic growth, and certainly helps assuage investor fears about a deteriorating labor market. “Real wages are rising, beating inflation, and [consumers] are spending,” he said.

Steady wage growth, manufacturing resilience and the lack of evidence of a layoff spike all give Wallerstein confidence that markets can continue their rise, with some intermittent volatility. “As long as the economy is growing stronger than expected, you don’t need to worry,” he said.

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