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從深受追捧到維權(quán)目標(biāo),美國西南航空如何迅速衰落?

Lila MacLellan
2024-10-29

股價(jià)較2021年跌去一半

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美國西南航空公司(Southwest Airlines)首席執(zhí)行官鮑勃·喬丹(Bob Jordan)遭遇了惡劣天氣和冬季風(fēng)暴埃利奧特。圖片來源:Bob Jordan:Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg-Getty Images, Southwest airplane:Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto-Getty Images; Clouds; Jason Hosking-Getty Images

這場風(fēng)暴的時(shí)機(jī)再糟糕不過了。

2022年12月下旬,一場“溫帶氣旋”席卷了美國三分之二的地區(qū),包括整個(gè)東海岸和加拿大的部分地區(qū),帶來了各種極端的冬季天氣。風(fēng)寒警告、乳白天空和極端降雪給數(shù)百萬人的出行帶來了困難。

“冬季風(fēng)暴埃利奧特”(非正式名稱)不可避免地導(dǎo)致航班取消,給大多數(shù)航空公司造成了一天的混亂。但對于西南航空及其過時(shí)的機(jī)組調(diào)度軟件來說,這場混亂持續(xù)了超過72小時(shí),該公司取消了超過1.6萬架次的航班。一些人(數(shù)目不詳)被迫在機(jī)場過夜或與陌生人臨時(shí)駕車旅行,以挽回假期。這場崩潰如此嚴(yán)重,以至于被《周六夜現(xiàn)場》(Saturday Night Live)調(diào)侃。

該公司最終恢復(fù)了正常運(yùn)營,直到今年,另一個(gè)埃利奧特(Elliott,一家激進(jìn)的對沖基金)發(fā)起的一連串攻擊引發(fā)了一場引人注目的清算和重大的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層變動(dòng)。

這場危機(jī)讓西南航空的忠實(shí)乘客感到不安,該航空的乘客數(shù)量龐大。在過去的50年里,這家總部位于德克薩斯州的航空公司憑借僅提供經(jīng)濟(jì)艙的航班、免費(fèi)行李托運(yùn)和改簽服務(wù),以及經(jīng)常自嘲式的幽默,成功塑造了廣受歡迎的品牌形象。空乘人員以在安全提示中穿插喜劇段子和“爸爸笑話”而著稱。

但一些投資者表示,隨著行業(yè)運(yùn)營成本的上升,西南航空的基本運(yùn)營模式已不再適應(yīng)當(dāng)前的市場環(huán)境。自疫情爆發(fā)以來,西南航空的財(cái)務(wù)表現(xiàn)落后于競爭對手,其股價(jià)較2021年下跌了50%。

激進(jìn)對沖基金埃利奧特管理公司(Elliott Management,持有這家市值180億美元的航空公司11%的股份)看到了扭虧為盈的機(jī)會(huì),于今年早些時(shí)候發(fā)起了一場激進(jìn)的運(yùn)動(dòng),要求罷免首席執(zhí)行官鮑勃·喬丹、董事長兼前首席執(zhí)行官加里·凱利(Gary Kelly),并更換一半的董事會(huì)成員。埃利奧特管理公司表示,該公司的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層固守現(xiàn)有的運(yùn)營和定價(jià)模式,未能做出必要的改變以增加收入。該對沖基金在開場白中表示:“西南航空固守幾十年前的運(yùn)營模式,限制了其在現(xiàn)代航空業(yè)中的競爭力?!?

雙方上周達(dá)成協(xié)議,避免了代理權(quán)之爭。西南航空同意增補(bǔ)六名新董事會(huì)成員,其中五名是埃利奧特管理公司提名的人選,包括維珍航空(Virgin America)和西捷航空(西捷航空)的前首席執(zhí)行官。董事會(huì)還增加了雪佛龍(Chevron)前首席財(cái)務(wù)官皮埃爾·布雷伯(Pierre Breber)。作為和解協(xié)議的一部分,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)西南航空長達(dá)18年的凱利將比原計(jì)劃提前退休。但在公司工作了30年、于2022年出任首席執(zhí)行官的喬丹將繼續(xù)留任。

西南航空和埃利奧特管理公司拒絕置評。

就在不久前,西南航空公司發(fā)生這樣的激進(jìn)主義事件還是不可想象的。從初創(chuàng)公司成長為美國四大航空公司之一(與美國航空公司(American Airlines)、達(dá)美航空公司(Delta Air Lines)和聯(lián)合航空公司(United Airlines)并列),西南航空的非凡發(fā)展歷程使其成為商學(xué)院的熱門案例研究對象。在疫情爆發(fā)之前,西南航空連續(xù)47年保持盈利。這是任何國內(nèi)或國際航空公司都無法比擬的成就。事實(shí)上,在過去的半個(gè)世紀(jì)里,西南航空在美國的三大主要競爭對手都至少經(jīng)歷過一次破產(chǎn)。

麻省理工學(xué)院斯隆管理學(xué)院(MIT Sloan School of Management)商業(yè)實(shí)踐教授、《適者的復(fù)興:為什么實(shí)力雄厚公司會(huì)衰敗,以及杰出管理者如何重塑它們》(Revival of the Fittest: Why Good Companies Go Bad and How Great Managers Can Remake Them)一書的作者唐納德·蘇爾(Donald Sull)說,西南航空之所以能夠崛起,得益于其獨(dú)特的特質(zhì)——平等的座位安排和反對額外收費(fèi)的立場,但這些曾經(jīng)助其成功的特色,反而成為負(fù)擔(dān)。

多年來一直關(guān)注西南航空的蘇爾對《財(cái)富》雜志表示,該航空公司目前的危機(jī)讓人聯(lián)想到百視達(dá)(Blockbuster)和康柏(Compaq)等公司。簡而言之,西南航空一直試圖通過加大對現(xiàn)有策略的投入來應(yīng)對商業(yè)環(huán)境的變化。

他補(bǔ)充說:“商業(yè)史上充斥著因積極惰性而淪為犧牲品的企業(yè)遺骸?!?/p>

無附加服務(wù),低費(fèi)用

50多年前,赫布·凱萊赫(Herbert Kelleher)與他人共同創(chuàng)立了西南航空公司,最初這是一家只在德克薩斯州內(nèi)城市間提供服務(wù)的本地低成本航空公司。隨著航空公司的發(fā)展壯大,它采取了與競爭對手截然不同的航空旅行方式。除了提供無附加服務(wù)、低費(fèi)用的體驗(yàn)外,西南航空還采用了點(diǎn)對點(diǎn)的航線系統(tǒng),讓乘客無需轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)即可在城市間飛行,而不必像樞紐-輻射式模式那樣在另一個(gè)城市轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)。西南航空只使用單一機(jī)型,即波音737,以實(shí)現(xiàn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化運(yùn)營。最為人所知的是,這家初創(chuàng)公司曾實(shí)施開放式座位安排,并在2007年之前一直遵循先到先得的登機(jī)政策。

隨著時(shí)間的推移,凱萊赫不僅因其幽默感而為人所知,也因其出色的商業(yè)才能而聲名鵲起。在1994年的一篇人物簡介中,《財(cái)富》雜志稱他為“航空業(yè)的幽默大師,笑話界的大祭司,曾在公眾場合裝扮成貓王和復(fù)活節(jié)兔子的人,通過表達(dá)對香煙、波旁威士忌酒和下流故事的喜愛而塑造出滑稽公眾形象的人”。但他同樣是一位受人尊敬的戰(zhàn)略家。凱萊赫于2019年去世后,管理大師羅杰·馬丁(Roger Martin)向這位創(chuàng)始人致敬道,凱萊赫是為數(shù)不多的認(rèn)識(shí)到“通往非凡成就的唯一途徑就是做出與眾不同的選擇”的人之一。

當(dāng)時(shí),這些選擇幾十年來一直行之有效。除了在“9-11事件”之后因安全要求加強(qiáng)而對座位政策做了微調(diào)外,其他方面基本保持不變。研究公司晨星(Morningstar)的航空業(yè)分析師尼古拉斯·歐文斯(Nicolas Owens)告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,2015年至2019年對美國航空業(yè)來說是一段極其繁榮的時(shí)期,這一時(shí)期的特征是需求強(qiáng)勁和盈利能力高。歐文斯指出,低油價(jià)是當(dāng)時(shí)的主要利好因素,原因是當(dāng)油價(jià)高企時(shí),航空公司通常會(huì)將燃油成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給乘客,而當(dāng)燃油成本下降時(shí),航空公司會(huì)降低機(jī)票價(jià)格。

但疫情和飛機(jī)臨時(shí)停飛使這一時(shí)期戛然而止。歐文斯說:“新冠肺炎的爆發(fā)徹底擾亂了整個(gè)行業(yè)。飛機(jī)停飛,乘客也不再選擇航空出行等等?!?/p>

疫情一度導(dǎo)致航空公司估值直線下降。但隨著疫情緩解,航空公司開始重新恢復(fù)運(yùn)營,另一項(xiàng)變化隨之而來。消費(fèi)者的偏好發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變,更多美國人選擇乘坐國際航班或在高端服務(wù)上進(jìn)行報(bào)復(fù)性消費(fèi),而美國城市間的當(dāng)日商務(wù)旅行次數(shù)則有所減少。

歐文斯解釋說,航空公司還沒有做好應(yīng)對需求激增的準(zhǔn)備。光是尋找飛行員就是一項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn);許多沒有被強(qiáng)制休假的人已經(jīng)退休了。然而,除了西南航空之外,美國的其他大型航空公司都已做好滿足大眾新需求的準(zhǔn)備,它們擁有合適的旅行網(wǎng)絡(luò)和產(chǎn)品,以充分利用人們被壓抑的需求——巴黎度假或東京探險(xiǎn)。在疫情爆發(fā)之前,它們通過合并擴(kuò)大了運(yùn)力,并為自己提供了許多應(yīng)對市場變化的手段。例如,它們可以銷售至少三種級(jí)別的乘客服務(wù),以及機(jī)場貴賓室通道。它們可以向乘客收取額外的腿部舒展空間或更快登機(jī)特權(quán)的費(fèi)用。憑借國際航線或航空公司合作伙伴關(guān)系,它們已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好為環(huán)球旅行者、度假者、短途商務(wù)旅客以及其他任何人提供服務(wù)。歐文斯說:“總體而言,航空公司的財(cái)務(wù)業(yè)績非常強(qiáng)勁,與2019年相比,其收入創(chuàng)下了歷史新高(即使航班減少了)?!?/p>

Sanford C. Bernstein的分析師大衛(wèi)·弗農(nóng)(David Vernon)表示,西南航空的競爭對手也推出了基本經(jīng)濟(jì)艙服務(wù),侵蝕了西南航空的“無附加服務(wù)”策略,并"在現(xiàn)有網(wǎng)絡(luò)中增加了更多座位,從而涌入了對價(jià)格敏感的旅客市場”。簡而言之,各大航空公司在票價(jià)細(xì)分策略方面進(jìn)行了創(chuàng)新,而西南航空卻沒有。

他補(bǔ)充說:“埃利奧特管理公司對西南航空的批評是合乎情理的,它們指出西南航空的體驗(yàn)沒有太大變化?!?/p>

由于消費(fèi)者偏好的轉(zhuǎn)變以及面向預(yù)算旅行者的競爭加劇,再加上勞動(dòng)力和燃料成本上升等因素,西南航空在后疫情時(shí)代的環(huán)境中一直舉步維艱。今年,波音(Boeing)自身的困境以及生產(chǎn)放緩的預(yù)期也對該公司造成了影響,迫使其削減運(yùn)力。

冬季風(fēng)暴埃利奧特也帶來了沉重打擊,如果公司優(yōu)先更新其機(jī)組人員調(diào)度系統(tǒng),這一打擊本可以避免。該軟件無法在航班取消后自動(dòng)重新分配機(jī)組人員,而是需要工作人員手動(dòng)查找和安排機(jī)組人員。當(dāng)取消的航班相對較少時(shí),這個(gè)問題還可以解決,但當(dāng)取消的航班數(shù)以千計(jì)時(shí),這就成了后勤的噩夢。在一份內(nèi)部報(bào)告中,該公司還指出,“關(guān)鍵機(jī)場缺乏足夠的冬季基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和設(shè)備”是造成這場危機(jī)的根本原因。

首席執(zhí)行官喬丹為此次混亂局面道歉,他在一段視頻中說:“我們知道,即使是最深切的歉意,對于客戶、員工以及所有受到這次中斷影響的人來說,也是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠的?!痹摵娇展境兄Z要向乘客退款,后來為此支付了6億美元的費(fèi)用。

文化盲目性

2022年的崩潰不僅讓西南航空遭受了美國交通部1.4億美元的重罰,也讓其品牌暫時(shí)蒙上了污點(diǎn)。喬治敦大學(xué)麥克多諾商學(xué)院(Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business)兼職教授、美國航空公司前高管羅布·布里頓(Rob Britton)表示,這一事件嚴(yán)重暴露了西南航空文化的封閉性問題。

如同蘇爾所指出的,西南航空的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層塑造并推動(dòng)了一種文化,這種文化過度依賴于公司過去的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn),未能將創(chuàng)新置于首位。在他看來,這導(dǎo)致西南航空在技術(shù)方面投資不足。布里頓說,即使在全盛時(shí)期,該公司也過于滿足于自己的戰(zhàn)略,例如,它拒絕了華爾街提出的收取行李托運(yùn)費(fèi)的建議,而其他航空公司在過去十多年里已經(jīng)廣泛采用這一策略。相比之下,美國航空和聯(lián)合航空去年的行李托運(yùn)費(fèi)收入分別達(dá)到了10億美元。(西南航空最近公布的一項(xiàng)客戶調(diào)查顯示,如果收取行李托運(yùn)費(fèi),根據(jù)不再乘坐西南航空的消費(fèi)者數(shù)量計(jì)算,該公司每年將損失3億美元。)

布里頓強(qiáng)調(diào),企業(yè)必須持續(xù)審視其根深蒂固的做法,區(qū)分哪些行之有效,哪些是進(jìn)一步增長的障礙。如果西南航空放棄一些為客戶降低成本的標(biāo)志性政策,也許就能更好地應(yīng)對成本上升壓力。

布里頓說,公平地說,“這個(gè)行業(yè)趨于封閉。”航空公司的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者通常不愿意聘用來自汽車或消費(fèi)品行業(yè)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,因?yàn)樗麄冋J(rèn)為航空業(yè)的復(fù)雜性是外來者難以理解的?!拔髂虾娇站褪沁@種封閉性的極端例子,”他繼續(xù)說道,并指出該公司致力于內(nèi)部晉升,長期以來一直不愿與其他航空公司建立聯(lián)盟。

但蘇爾告誡說,不要把西南航空的高管描繪成傲慢、自滿或缺乏遠(yuǎn)見的人。他表示:"當(dāng)一家公司在固守承諾的同時(shí),還要努力適應(yīng)不斷變化的環(huán)境,情況就不一定是那樣了?!备吖軅円呀?jīng)見證了自己獨(dú)特的系統(tǒng)行之有效,并且多年來一直沉浸在相同的企業(yè)文化中,這使得他們很難想象出替代方案。

做出改變

根據(jù)蘇爾的研究,為了擺脫“積極惰性”,公司確實(shí)需要進(jìn)行重大變革,但這并不意味著必須聘請外來的首席執(zhí)行官。相反,他們應(yīng)該尋找“面向外部的內(nèi)部”領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,或者那些既擁有公司制度知識(shí),又能夠保持一定距離感,從而看清公司所面臨困境的高管。例如,這樣的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者可能負(fù)責(zé)國際業(yè)務(wù)或非核心部門。蘇爾說,想想通用電氣(GE)的杰克·韋爾奇(Jack Welch)吧,他在接手通用電氣之前負(fù)責(zé)公司的塑料業(yè)務(wù)。

Sanford C. Bernstein的分析師弗農(nóng)認(rèn)為,西南航空的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層并非像一些人所認(rèn)為的那樣逃避現(xiàn)實(shí),以至于希望事情能夠恢復(fù)原樣——即更多人選擇乘坐廉價(jià)、高頻的短途航班。

他說:“我認(rèn)為市場變化迅速,他們不確定這種變化是否是永久的?!?/p>

在埃利奧特管理公司推動(dòng)的變革中,喬丹得以留任,這并不令分析師感到意外。就在上個(gè)月,這位首席執(zhí)行官透露了增加座位腿部舒展空間和指定座位的計(jì)劃,該公司表示,在埃利奧特管理公司開始推動(dòng)變革之前就已經(jīng)在進(jìn)行調(diào)整了。上個(gè)月,西南航空還與冰島航空(Icelandair)建立了首個(gè)合作伙伴關(guān)系。該公司已經(jīng)表示,它也看到了變革的必要性,并已同意凱利離職。

歐文斯說,西南航空面臨的下一個(gè)重大挑戰(zhàn)是深入細(xì)致了解其客戶群。但他提醒說,勞動(dòng)力成本和其他問題仍然影響著競爭激烈的航空業(yè)。

他補(bǔ)充說:"我認(rèn)為任何一家航空公司都無法真正主宰自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)命運(yùn)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

這場風(fēng)暴的時(shí)機(jī)再糟糕不過了。

2022年12月下旬,一場“溫帶氣旋”席卷了美國三分之二的地區(qū),包括整個(gè)東海岸和加拿大的部分地區(qū),帶來了各種極端的冬季天氣。風(fēng)寒警告、乳白天空和極端降雪給數(shù)百萬人的出行帶來了困難。

“冬季風(fēng)暴埃利奧特”(非正式名稱)不可避免地導(dǎo)致航班取消,給大多數(shù)航空公司造成了一天的混亂。但對于西南航空及其過時(shí)的機(jī)組調(diào)度軟件來說,這場混亂持續(xù)了超過72小時(shí),該公司取消了超過1.6萬架次的航班。一些人(數(shù)目不詳)被迫在機(jī)場過夜或與陌生人臨時(shí)駕車旅行,以挽回假期。這場崩潰如此嚴(yán)重,以至于被《周六夜現(xiàn)場》(Saturday Night Live)調(diào)侃。

該公司最終恢復(fù)了正常運(yùn)營,直到今年,另一個(gè)埃利奧特(Elliott,一家激進(jìn)的對沖基金)發(fā)起的一連串攻擊引發(fā)了一場引人注目的清算和重大的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層變動(dòng)。

這場危機(jī)讓西南航空的忠實(shí)乘客感到不安,該航空的乘客數(shù)量龐大。在過去的50年里,這家總部位于德克薩斯州的航空公司憑借僅提供經(jīng)濟(jì)艙的航班、免費(fèi)行李托運(yùn)和改簽服務(wù),以及經(jīng)常自嘲式的幽默,成功塑造了廣受歡迎的品牌形象??粘巳藛T以在安全提示中穿插喜劇段子和“爸爸笑話”而著稱。

但一些投資者表示,隨著行業(yè)運(yùn)營成本的上升,西南航空的基本運(yùn)營模式已不再適應(yīng)當(dāng)前的市場環(huán)境。自疫情爆發(fā)以來,西南航空的財(cái)務(wù)表現(xiàn)落后于競爭對手,其股價(jià)較2021年下跌了50%。

激進(jìn)對沖基金埃利奧特管理公司(Elliott Management,持有這家市值180億美元的航空公司11%的股份)看到了扭虧為盈的機(jī)會(huì),于今年早些時(shí)候發(fā)起了一場激進(jìn)的運(yùn)動(dòng),要求罷免首席執(zhí)行官鮑勃·喬丹、董事長兼前首席執(zhí)行官加里·凱利(Gary Kelly),并更換一半的董事會(huì)成員。埃利奧特管理公司表示,該公司的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層固守現(xiàn)有的運(yùn)營和定價(jià)模式,未能做出必要的改變以增加收入。該對沖基金在開場白中表示:“西南航空固守幾十年前的運(yùn)營模式,限制了其在現(xiàn)代航空業(yè)中的競爭力?!?

雙方上周達(dá)成協(xié)議,避免了代理權(quán)之爭。西南航空同意增補(bǔ)六名新董事會(huì)成員,其中五名是埃利奧特管理公司提名的人選,包括維珍航空(Virgin America)和西捷航空(西捷航空)的前首席執(zhí)行官。董事會(huì)還增加了雪佛龍(Chevron)前首席財(cái)務(wù)官皮埃爾·布雷伯(Pierre Breber)。作為和解協(xié)議的一部分,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)西南航空長達(dá)18年的凱利將比原計(jì)劃提前退休。但在公司工作了30年、于2022年出任首席執(zhí)行官的喬丹將繼續(xù)留任。

西南航空和埃利奧特管理公司拒絕置評。

就在不久前,西南航空公司發(fā)生這樣的激進(jìn)主義事件還是不可想象的。從初創(chuàng)公司成長為美國四大航空公司之一(與美國航空公司(American Airlines)、達(dá)美航空公司(Delta Air Lines)和聯(lián)合航空公司(United Airlines)并列),西南航空的非凡發(fā)展歷程使其成為商學(xué)院的熱門案例研究對象。在疫情爆發(fā)之前,西南航空連續(xù)47年保持盈利。這是任何國內(nèi)或國際航空公司都無法比擬的成就。事實(shí)上,在過去的半個(gè)世紀(jì)里,西南航空在美國的三大主要競爭對手都至少經(jīng)歷過一次破產(chǎn)。

麻省理工學(xué)院斯隆管理學(xué)院(MIT Sloan School of Management)商業(yè)實(shí)踐教授、《適者的復(fù)興:為什么實(shí)力雄厚公司會(huì)衰敗,以及杰出管理者如何重塑它們》(Revival of the Fittest: Why Good Companies Go Bad and How Great Managers Can Remake Them)一書的作者唐納德·蘇爾(Donald Sull)說,西南航空之所以能夠崛起,得益于其獨(dú)特的特質(zhì)——平等的座位安排和反對額外收費(fèi)的立場,但這些曾經(jīng)助其成功的特色,反而成為負(fù)擔(dān)。

多年來一直關(guān)注西南航空的蘇爾對《財(cái)富》雜志表示,該航空公司目前的危機(jī)讓人聯(lián)想到百視達(dá)(Blockbuster)和康柏(Compaq)等公司。簡而言之,西南航空一直試圖通過加大對現(xiàn)有策略的投入來應(yīng)對商業(yè)環(huán)境的變化。

他補(bǔ)充說:“商業(yè)史上充斥著因積極惰性而淪為犧牲品的企業(yè)遺骸?!?/p>

無附加服務(wù),低費(fèi)用

50多年前,赫布·凱萊赫(Herbert Kelleher)與他人共同創(chuàng)立了西南航空公司,最初這是一家只在德克薩斯州內(nèi)城市間提供服務(wù)的本地低成本航空公司。隨著航空公司的發(fā)展壯大,它采取了與競爭對手截然不同的航空旅行方式。除了提供無附加服務(wù)、低費(fèi)用的體驗(yàn)外,西南航空還采用了點(diǎn)對點(diǎn)的航線系統(tǒng),讓乘客無需轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)即可在城市間飛行,而不必像樞紐-輻射式模式那樣在另一個(gè)城市轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)。西南航空只使用單一機(jī)型,即波音737,以實(shí)現(xiàn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化運(yùn)營。最為人所知的是,這家初創(chuàng)公司曾實(shí)施開放式座位安排,并在2007年之前一直遵循先到先得的登機(jī)政策。

隨著時(shí)間的推移,凱萊赫不僅因其幽默感而為人所知,也因其出色的商業(yè)才能而聲名鵲起。在1994年的一篇人物簡介中,《財(cái)富》雜志稱他為“航空業(yè)的幽默大師,笑話界的大祭司,曾在公眾場合裝扮成貓王和復(fù)活節(jié)兔子的人,通過表達(dá)對香煙、波旁威士忌酒和下流故事的喜愛而塑造出滑稽公眾形象的人”。但他同樣是一位受人尊敬的戰(zhàn)略家。凱萊赫于2019年去世后,管理大師羅杰·馬?。≧oger Martin)向這位創(chuàng)始人致敬道,凱萊赫是為數(shù)不多的認(rèn)識(shí)到“通往非凡成就的唯一途徑就是做出與眾不同的選擇”的人之一。

當(dāng)時(shí),這些選擇幾十年來一直行之有效。除了在“9-11事件”之后因安全要求加強(qiáng)而對座位政策做了微調(diào)外,其他方面基本保持不變。研究公司晨星(Morningstar)的航空業(yè)分析師尼古拉斯·歐文斯(Nicolas Owens)告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,2015年至2019年對美國航空業(yè)來說是一段極其繁榮的時(shí)期,這一時(shí)期的特征是需求強(qiáng)勁和盈利能力高。歐文斯指出,低油價(jià)是當(dāng)時(shí)的主要利好因素,原因是當(dāng)油價(jià)高企時(shí),航空公司通常會(huì)將燃油成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給乘客,而當(dāng)燃油成本下降時(shí),航空公司會(huì)降低機(jī)票價(jià)格。

但疫情和飛機(jī)臨時(shí)停飛使這一時(shí)期戛然而止。歐文斯說:“新冠肺炎的爆發(fā)徹底擾亂了整個(gè)行業(yè)。飛機(jī)停飛,乘客也不再選擇航空出行等等?!?/p>

疫情一度導(dǎo)致航空公司估值直線下降。但隨著疫情緩解,航空公司開始重新恢復(fù)運(yùn)營,另一項(xiàng)變化隨之而來。消費(fèi)者的偏好發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變,更多美國人選擇乘坐國際航班或在高端服務(wù)上進(jìn)行報(bào)復(fù)性消費(fèi),而美國城市間的當(dāng)日商務(wù)旅行次數(shù)則有所減少。

歐文斯解釋說,航空公司還沒有做好應(yīng)對需求激增的準(zhǔn)備。光是尋找飛行員就是一項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn);許多沒有被強(qiáng)制休假的人已經(jīng)退休了。然而,除了西南航空之外,美國的其他大型航空公司都已做好滿足大眾新需求的準(zhǔn)備,它們擁有合適的旅行網(wǎng)絡(luò)和產(chǎn)品,以充分利用人們被壓抑的需求——巴黎度假或東京探險(xiǎn)。在疫情爆發(fā)之前,它們通過合并擴(kuò)大了運(yùn)力,并為自己提供了許多應(yīng)對市場變化的手段。例如,它們可以銷售至少三種級(jí)別的乘客服務(wù),以及機(jī)場貴賓室通道。它們可以向乘客收取額外的腿部舒展空間或更快登機(jī)特權(quán)的費(fèi)用。憑借國際航線或航空公司合作伙伴關(guān)系,它們已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好為環(huán)球旅行者、度假者、短途商務(wù)旅客以及其他任何人提供服務(wù)。歐文斯說:“總體而言,航空公司的財(cái)務(wù)業(yè)績非常強(qiáng)勁,與2019年相比,其收入創(chuàng)下了歷史新高(即使航班減少了)。”

Sanford C. Bernstein的分析師大衛(wèi)·弗農(nóng)(David Vernon)表示,西南航空的競爭對手也推出了基本經(jīng)濟(jì)艙服務(wù),侵蝕了西南航空的“無附加服務(wù)”策略,并"在現(xiàn)有網(wǎng)絡(luò)中增加了更多座位,從而涌入了對價(jià)格敏感的旅客市場”。簡而言之,各大航空公司在票價(jià)細(xì)分策略方面進(jìn)行了創(chuàng)新,而西南航空卻沒有。

他補(bǔ)充說:“埃利奧特管理公司對西南航空的批評是合乎情理的,它們指出西南航空的體驗(yàn)沒有太大變化?!?/p>

由于消費(fèi)者偏好的轉(zhuǎn)變以及面向預(yù)算旅行者的競爭加劇,再加上勞動(dòng)力和燃料成本上升等因素,西南航空在后疫情時(shí)代的環(huán)境中一直舉步維艱。今年,波音(Boeing)自身的困境以及生產(chǎn)放緩的預(yù)期也對該公司造成了影響,迫使其削減運(yùn)力。

冬季風(fēng)暴埃利奧特也帶來了沉重打擊,如果公司優(yōu)先更新其機(jī)組人員調(diào)度系統(tǒng),這一打擊本可以避免。該軟件無法在航班取消后自動(dòng)重新分配機(jī)組人員,而是需要工作人員手動(dòng)查找和安排機(jī)組人員。當(dāng)取消的航班相對較少時(shí),這個(gè)問題還可以解決,但當(dāng)取消的航班數(shù)以千計(jì)時(shí),這就成了后勤的噩夢。在一份內(nèi)部報(bào)告中,該公司還指出,“關(guān)鍵機(jī)場缺乏足夠的冬季基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和設(shè)備”是造成這場危機(jī)的根本原因。

首席執(zhí)行官喬丹為此次混亂局面道歉,他在一段視頻中說:“我們知道,即使是最深切的歉意,對于客戶、員工以及所有受到這次中斷影響的人來說,也是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠的。”該航空公司承諾要向乘客退款,后來為此支付了6億美元的費(fèi)用。

文化盲目性

2022年的崩潰不僅讓西南航空遭受了美國交通部1.4億美元的重罰,也讓其品牌暫時(shí)蒙上了污點(diǎn)。喬治敦大學(xué)麥克多諾商學(xué)院(Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business)兼職教授、美國航空公司前高管羅布·布里頓(Rob Britton)表示,這一事件嚴(yán)重暴露了西南航空文化的封閉性問題。

如同蘇爾所指出的,西南航空的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層塑造并推動(dòng)了一種文化,這種文化過度依賴于公司過去的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn),未能將創(chuàng)新置于首位。在他看來,這導(dǎo)致西南航空在技術(shù)方面投資不足。布里頓說,即使在全盛時(shí)期,該公司也過于滿足于自己的戰(zhàn)略,例如,它拒絕了華爾街提出的收取行李托運(yùn)費(fèi)的建議,而其他航空公司在過去十多年里已經(jīng)廣泛采用這一策略。相比之下,美國航空和聯(lián)合航空去年的行李托運(yùn)費(fèi)收入分別達(dá)到了10億美元。(西南航空最近公布的一項(xiàng)客戶調(diào)查顯示,如果收取行李托運(yùn)費(fèi),根據(jù)不再乘坐西南航空的消費(fèi)者數(shù)量計(jì)算,該公司每年將損失3億美元。)

布里頓強(qiáng)調(diào),企業(yè)必須持續(xù)審視其根深蒂固的做法,區(qū)分哪些行之有效,哪些是進(jìn)一步增長的障礙。如果西南航空放棄一些為客戶降低成本的標(biāo)志性政策,也許就能更好地應(yīng)對成本上升壓力。

布里頓說,公平地說,“這個(gè)行業(yè)趨于封閉?!焙娇展镜念I(lǐng)導(dǎo)者通常不愿意聘用來自汽車或消費(fèi)品行業(yè)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,因?yàn)樗麄冋J(rèn)為航空業(yè)的復(fù)雜性是外來者難以理解的。“西南航空就是這種封閉性的極端例子,”他繼續(xù)說道,并指出該公司致力于內(nèi)部晉升,長期以來一直不愿與其他航空公司建立聯(lián)盟。

但蘇爾告誡說,不要把西南航空的高管描繪成傲慢、自滿或缺乏遠(yuǎn)見的人。他表示:"當(dāng)一家公司在固守承諾的同時(shí),還要努力適應(yīng)不斷變化的環(huán)境,情況就不一定是那樣了。”高管們已經(jīng)見證了自己獨(dú)特的系統(tǒng)行之有效,并且多年來一直沉浸在相同的企業(yè)文化中,這使得他們很難想象出替代方案。

做出改變

根據(jù)蘇爾的研究,為了擺脫“積極惰性”,公司確實(shí)需要進(jìn)行重大變革,但這并不意味著必須聘請外來的首席執(zhí)行官。相反,他們應(yīng)該尋找“面向外部的內(nèi)部”領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,或者那些既擁有公司制度知識(shí),又能夠保持一定距離感,從而看清公司所面臨困境的高管。例如,這樣的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者可能負(fù)責(zé)國際業(yè)務(wù)或非核心部門。蘇爾說,想想通用電氣(GE)的杰克·韋爾奇(Jack Welch)吧,他在接手通用電氣之前負(fù)責(zé)公司的塑料業(yè)務(wù)。

Sanford C. Bernstein的分析師弗農(nóng)認(rèn)為,西南航空的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層并非像一些人所認(rèn)為的那樣逃避現(xiàn)實(shí),以至于希望事情能夠恢復(fù)原樣——即更多人選擇乘坐廉價(jià)、高頻的短途航班。

他說:“我認(rèn)為市場變化迅速,他們不確定這種變化是否是永久的。”

在埃利奧特管理公司推動(dòng)的變革中,喬丹得以留任,這并不令分析師感到意外。就在上個(gè)月,這位首席執(zhí)行官透露了增加座位腿部舒展空間和指定座位的計(jì)劃,該公司表示,在埃利奧特管理公司開始推動(dòng)變革之前就已經(jīng)在進(jìn)行調(diào)整了。上個(gè)月,西南航空還與冰島航空(Icelandair)建立了首個(gè)合作伙伴關(guān)系。該公司已經(jīng)表示,它也看到了變革的必要性,并已同意凱利離職。

歐文斯說,西南航空面臨的下一個(gè)重大挑戰(zhàn)是深入細(xì)致了解其客戶群。但他提醒說,勞動(dòng)力成本和其他問題仍然影響著競爭激烈的航空業(yè)。

他補(bǔ)充說:"我認(rèn)為任何一家航空公司都無法真正主宰自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)命運(yùn)。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

Bob Jordan:Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg-Getty Images, Southwest airplane:Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto-Getty Images; Clouds; Jason Hosking-Getty Images

The storm’s timing couldn’t have been worse.

In late December of 2022, an “extratropical cyclone” brought all manner of menacing winter conditions to two-thirds of the U.S., including the entire Eastern Seaboard and parts of Canada. Wind-chill warnings, whiteouts, and extraordinary snowfall complicated travel for millions.

Flight cancellations from what was unofficially dubbed Winter Storm Elliott were inevitable, creating chaos at most airlines for a day. But for Southwest Airlines and its outdated crew-scheduling software, the madness dragged on for over 72 hours as the carrier canceled more than 16,000 flights. An undisclosed number of people were forced to sleep in airports or improvise road trips with strangers to salvage their holidays. The meltdown was so bad that Southwest was pilloried by Saturday Night Live.

The company eventually got back to business as usual, until this year, when a barrage of attacks from another Elliott—this one an activist hedge fund—led to a high-profile reckoning and major leadership shakeup.

The battle alarmed Southwest’s loyal flyers, who are legion. Over 50 years, the Texas-based company has built a cult-favorite brand on a combination of economy-class-only flights, free bag checks and flight changes, and often self-deprecating humor. Flight attendants are known for bookending their safety procedure announcements with comedy bits and dad jokes.

But some investors say Southwest’s foundational practices haven’t aged well as industry operating costs have risen. Since the pandemic, Southwest has lagged competitors in financial performance, and its share price is down 50% compared to 2021.

Seeing a turnaround opportunity, Elliott Management, an activist hedge fund with an 11% stake in the $18 billion airline, launched an aggressive campaign earlier this year to push out CEO Bob Jordan, as well as chairman and former CEO Gary Kelly, and replace half of Southwest’s board. Elliott asserted that the company’s leadership is too entrenched in the airline’s existing operating and pricing model to make changes to boost revenue. “Southwest’s rigid commitment to a decades-old approach has inhibited its ability to compete in the modern airline industry,” the hedge fund said in its opening salvo.

The two sides reached an agreement this week, averting a proxy battle. Southwest agreed to take on six new board members, five of whom were Elliott nominees, including former CEOs from Virgin America and WestJet. The board also added former Chevron CFO Pierre Breber. Kelly, who had led Southwest for 18 years, will now retire earlier than previously planned as part of the truce. But Jordan, a 30-year company veteran who became CEO in 2022, will hold on to his job.

Southwest Airlines and Elliott Management declined to comment.

Not long ago, such activist drama at Southwest would have been unthinkable. The airline’s remarkable growth story from startup to a top-four U.S. airline—along with American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines—made it a business-school case-study favorite. And before the pandemic, Southwest was profitable for 47 straight years. No other domestic or global airline can claim the same profitability streak. In fact, all three of Southwest’s main U.S. competitors have gone bankrupt at least once in the past half-century.

But the same unique traits that made Southwest soar—its egalitarian seating and anti-fee stance—have paradoxically weighed it down, says Donald Sull, an MIT Sloan School of Management professor of business practice and author of Revival of the Fittest: Why Good Companies Go Bad and How Great Managers Can Remake Them.

Sull, who has followed Southwest’s story for years, tells Fortune that the airline’s current crisis is reminiscent of companies like Blockbuster and Compaq. In short, Southwest has been responding to changes in the business landscape by doubling down on its existing strategy.

“Business history is littered with the corpses of companies that have fallen prey to active inertia,” he adds.

No frills and few fees

Herbert Kelleher cofounded Southwest more than 50 years ago as a local, low-cost airline serving Texan cities. As the airline grew, it took a radically different approach to air travel than its competitors. In addition to creating a no-frills, few-fees experience, Southwest adopted a point-to-point routing system, allowing passengers to fly between cities without transferring, rather than the hub-and-spoke model, which requires fliers to stop over in another city. Southwest also used only one type of plane, a Boeing 737, to standardize operations. And most famously, the startup embraced an open seating plan and, until 2007, a first-come, first serve policy.

Over time, Kelleher became known as much for his business prowess as his sense of humor. In a 1994 profile, Fortune called him “the airline industry’s jokemeister, the High Priest of Ha-Ha, a man who has appeared in public dressed as Elvis and the Easter Bunny, who has carved an antic public persona out of his affection for cigarettes, bourbon, and bawdy stories.” But he was revered as a strategist too. After Kelleher died in 2019, management guru Roger Martin paid tribute to the founder, writing that he was one of a few who understood that “the only path to distinctive results is with distinctive choices.”

At the time, those choices had been working for decades. There was little deviation, aside from a tweak to its seating policy following increased security requirements after 9/11. And 2015 to 2019 was a particularly heady time for the U.S. airline industry in general, characterized by strong demand and profitability, Nicolas Owens, airline analyst at research firm Morningstar, tells Fortune. Low oil prices were the key tailwinds at the time, Owens argues, since airlines tend to pass on fuel costs to passengers when oil is expensive, and chop ticket prices when fuel costs drop.

But the pandemic and temporary plane groundings brought an abrupt halt to this period. “COVID comes along and totally disrupts the industry,” says Owens. “Planes aren't flying, people aren't flying, etc etera.”

The pandemic briefly sent airline valuations into a free fall. But another change came as the pandemic eased and airlines began ramping up again. Customer preferences shifted, and more Americans chose to fly internationally or revenge-spend on premium services, while taking fewer same-day business trips between U.S. cities.

The airlines weren’t ready for the surge in demand, Owens explains. Just finding pilots was challenging; many of those who hadn’t been furloughed had retired. However, other than Southwest, the large U.S. airlines were prepared to meet the flying public’s new inclinations, having the right travel networks and products in place to take advantage of pent-up demand for Paris getaways or adventures in Tokyo. Before the pandemic, they had built up their capacity through mergers, and given themselves many levers to pull to respond to the marketplace. For example, they had three or more levels of passenger service to sell, along with airport lounge access. They could charge passengers for extra leg room or faster boarding privileges. With their international routes or airline partnerships, they were prepared to serve globe-trotters, vacationers, short-haul business travelers, and anyone else. “You had really strong financial results in general, where you had airlines reporting record revenue compared to 2019,” even with fewer flights, Owens says.

Southwest’s competitors have also been introducing basic economy seats, cutting into its no-frills strategy and “flooding the price-conscious-traveler space with additional seats within their existing networks,” says David Vernon, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein. In short, major airlines have been innovative with their fare-segmentation strategies in a way that Southwest has not.

“The Elliott criticism that the Southwest experience hasn't changed much is fair,” he adds.

As a result of the shift in consumer tastes and increased competition for budget travelers, not to mention higher labor and fuel costs, Southwest has been struggling in the post-pandemic environment. This year, Boeing’s own struggles and its expectation of slower production also impacted the company, which was forced to cut its capacity.

Winter Storm Elliott was also a blow, and one that could have been avoided had the company prioritized an update of its crew-scheduling system. The software had no way of automatically reassigning crews to planes following cancellations, and instead required staffers to manually find and schedule crew members. That was a manageable issue when relatively few flights were canceled, but a logistical nightmare when it came to thousands. In an internal report, the company also identified “insufficient winter infrastructure and equipment in key airport locations” as a root cause of the crisis.

CEO Jordan apologized for the chaos, saying in a video message that “we know even our deepest apologies—to our customers, to our employees, and to all affected through this disruption—only go so far.” The airline vowed to refund customers, later spending $600 million to do so.

A cultural blindness

The 2022 meltdown left Southwest with a $140 million fine from the Department of Transportation and temporarily stained the brand. It was also a damning sign of Southwest’s cultural insularity, according to Rob Britton, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business and a former American Airlines executive.

Like Sull, he argues that Southwest leaders created and presided over a culture that relied too heavily on past success, and failed to prioritize innovation. To his mind, that’s what led to its failure to invest adequately in technology. Even in its heyday, the company was too satisfied with its own strategies, for example rejecting Wall Street suggestions that it charge for bags as other airlines have done for more than a decade, says Britton. For context, American and United earned $1 billion each in bag fees last year. (Southwest recently shared customer research showing the airline would lose $300 million annually if it charged for bags, based on the number of consumers who would stop flying Southwest.)

Companies ought to be constantly reviewing which entrenched practices are working and which are holding them back from even greater growth, Britton says. Had Southwest dropped some of its trademark policies that keep costs down for customers, it may have been better prepared to weather rising costs.

To be fair, says Britton, “the industry tends toward insularity.” Airline leaders are often reluctant to hire leaders from the automotive or consumer-goods categories since they believe that airlines are just too complex for outsiders to understand. “Southwest is an extreme version of that insularity,” he continues, pointing to the company’s commitment to promoting from within and longtime aversion to establishing alliances with other airlines.

But Sull cautions against painting Southwest executives as arrogant, complacent, or not forward-looking. “None of that has to be true for a company to struggle to adapt to changing circumstances when its commitments have hardened,” he says. Executives who have seen their unique system work and have been breathing the same air for years struggle to envision alternatives.

Making changes

To escape “active inertia,” according to Sull’s research, companies do need to make drastic changes, but not necessarily by embracing an outsider CEO. Instead, they should look to insider-outside leaders, or executives from the company who have institutional knowledge but also enough distance to see the company’s predicament. That person might run an international business, for example, or a non-core division. Think Jack Welch at GE, who ran the company’s plastics business before taking over, says Sull.

Vernon, the Bernstein analyst, suggests that Southwest’s leadership might not have been burying their heads in the sand as much as “hoping that things would go back to the way they were”—that is, with more people taking cheap, high-frequency, short-haul flights.

“I think the market changed really quickly,” he says, “and they weren’t sure if the change was permanent.”

That Jordan was spared in the changes driven by Elliott did not surprise analysts. Just last month, the CEO revealed plans for seats with more legroom and assigned seats, adjustments the company said were in the works before Elliott began agitating for change. Last month, Southwest also launched its first airline partnership, linking with Icelandair. The company had signaled that it, too, saw the need for change, and had already agreed to Kelly’s departure.

Southwest’s next big challenge is developing a granular understanding of its customer segments, Owens says. But he cautions that labor costs and other issues are still working their way through the highly competitive airline industry.

“I don't think any given airline is really in control of its economic destiny,” he adds.

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