隨著交易員們將數(shù)億美元投入總統(tǒng)選舉投注市場(chǎng),美國領(lǐng)先的預(yù)測(cè)平臺(tái)Kalshi推出了加密貨幣存款功能,用戶可以使用穩(wěn)定幣USDC(而不是現(xiàn)金)來為他們的投注注資。這一舉措旨在與最大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手、離岸公司Polymarket競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
從今天起,Kalshi用戶將能夠使用USDC(一種與美元掛鉤的流行加密貨幣)為自己的賬戶充值。此舉將使Kalshi的用戶能夠以更快的速度和更低的成本轉(zhuǎn)移資金,同時(shí)也幫助Kalshi挑戰(zhàn)基于加密貨幣的平臺(tái)Polymarket,后者在2024年的選舉周期中人氣爆棚。
投注比賽
允許用戶對(duì)選舉結(jié)果進(jìn)行投注的政治預(yù)測(cè)平臺(tái)已經(jīng)存在了數(shù)十年,但在2024年大選期間,它們才成為公眾關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn),這主要?dú)w功于Polymarket。該網(wǎng)站最近聘請(qǐng)了民意調(diào)查專家納特·西爾弗(Nate Silver)擔(dān)任顧問,其總統(tǒng)選舉賭注市場(chǎng)吸引了大量交易和媒體報(bào)道。根據(jù)Polymarket的網(wǎng)站,用戶在總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選(唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)對(duì)卡瑪拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)賭注上的交易額已達(dá)26億美元,而Kalshi表示,該網(wǎng)站在總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選上的投注額不到8500萬美元。
交易量出現(xiàn)差異的部分原因在于Kalshi市場(chǎng)的成立時(shí)間較短。Kalshi由塔里克·曼蘇爾(Tarek Mansour)和盧安娜·洛佩斯·拉拉(Luana Lopes Lara)在2018年創(chuàng)立,并在2020年首次獲得美國商品期貨交易委員會(huì)(CFTC)的批準(zhǔn),推出了天氣等合約的非政治性投注市場(chǎng)。Kalshi在去年起訴該機(jī)構(gòu),以獲得推出政治合約的許可。9月初,在地方法院勝訴后,Kalshi于10月初推出了包括總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選在內(nèi)的政治相關(guān)賭注。
相比之下,Polymarket在未經(jīng)美國商品期貨交易委員會(huì)許可的情況下推出了政治預(yù)測(cè)市場(chǎng),從而觸犯了該委員會(huì)的相關(guān)規(guī)定,于2022年初被處以140萬美元的罰款,并被迫將平臺(tái)遷往美國境外。事實(shí)證明,缺乏監(jiān)管受到了用戶歡迎,而且用戶因原生加密貨幣設(shè)計(jì)而涌向該平臺(tái)——Polymarket與客戶的加密貨幣錢包相連,并用USDC結(jié)算賭注。區(qū)塊鏈設(shè)計(jì)也使該平臺(tái)受到審查,包括在Polymarket證實(shí)押注特朗普勝選的四個(gè)主要賬戶由一名法國交易員控制后,有人指責(zé)該平臺(tái)存在操縱行為。
在10月初接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí),曼蘇爾表示,他最初考慮在區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)上構(gòu)建Kalshi,但出于監(jiān)管方面的考量,最終放棄了這一想法。他說:“如若想吸引機(jī)構(gòu)參與,我們并沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)可行的商業(yè)模式?!辈贿^,他認(rèn)為,對(duì)于用戶而言,使用USDC存款將比依賴自動(dòng)清算中心(ACH)和銀行轉(zhuǎn)賬更快捷,同時(shí)也意味著費(fèi)用更低。
Kalshi正在與加密貨幣公司Zero Hash合作,以支持USDC存款,該公司表示,與銀行轉(zhuǎn)賬可能需要三到四天的時(shí)間相比,用戶將能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)幾乎即時(shí)的全年全天候資金流動(dòng)。Zero Hash負(fù)責(zé)管理這項(xiàng)新功能的轉(zhuǎn)換和合規(guī)性。
雖然Kalshi在交易量上仍落后于Polymarket,但曼蘇爾表示,其受監(jiān)管的特性將更受用戶歡迎,尤其是在Polymarket被禁止向美國交易者開放的情況下。Kalshi得到了包括風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資巨頭紅杉資本(Sequoia)在內(nèi)的投資機(jī)構(gòu)的支持,而Polymarket則得到了Founders Fund的支持,該基金的合伙人之一是彼得·蒂爾(Peter Thiel)。Robinhood周一也向部分美國客戶推出了政治賭博市場(chǎng)。
隨著選舉日的日益臨近,與哈里斯相比,特朗普在Kalshi客戶中的支持率已遙遙領(lǐng)先,從10月10日的幾乎平局上升至截至稿時(shí)62%的勝選幾率。傳統(tǒng)民意調(diào)查機(jī)構(gòu)仍預(yù)測(cè)此次大選結(jié)果像拋硬幣一樣勝負(fù)難料。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
隨著交易員們將數(shù)億美元投入總統(tǒng)選舉投注市場(chǎng),美國領(lǐng)先的預(yù)測(cè)平臺(tái)Kalshi推出了加密貨幣存款功能,用戶可以使用穩(wěn)定幣USDC(而不是現(xiàn)金)來為他們的投注注資。這一舉措旨在與最大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手、離岸公司Polymarket競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
從今天起,Kalshi用戶將能夠使用USDC(一種與美元掛鉤的流行加密貨幣)為自己的賬戶充值。此舉將使Kalshi的用戶能夠以更快的速度和更低的成本轉(zhuǎn)移資金,同時(shí)也幫助Kalshi挑戰(zhàn)基于加密貨幣的平臺(tái)Polymarket,后者在2024年的選舉周期中人氣爆棚。
投注比賽
允許用戶對(duì)選舉結(jié)果進(jìn)行投注的政治預(yù)測(cè)平臺(tái)已經(jīng)存在了數(shù)十年,但在2024年大選期間,它們才成為公眾關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn),這主要?dú)w功于Polymarket。該網(wǎng)站最近聘請(qǐng)了民意調(diào)查專家納特·西爾弗(Nate Silver)擔(dān)任顧問,其總統(tǒng)選舉賭注市場(chǎng)吸引了大量交易和媒體報(bào)道。根據(jù)Polymarket的網(wǎng)站,用戶在總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選(唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)對(duì)卡瑪拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)賭注上的交易額已達(dá)26億美元,而Kalshi表示,該網(wǎng)站在總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選上的投注額不到8500萬美元。
交易量出現(xiàn)差異的部分原因在于Kalshi市場(chǎng)的成立時(shí)間較短。Kalshi由塔里克·曼蘇爾(Tarek Mansour)和盧安娜·洛佩斯·拉拉(Luana Lopes Lara)在2018年創(chuàng)立,并在2020年首次獲得美國商品期貨交易委員會(huì)(CFTC)的批準(zhǔn),推出了天氣等合約的非政治性投注市場(chǎng)。Kalshi在去年起訴該機(jī)構(gòu),以獲得推出政治合約的許可。9月初,在地方法院勝訴后,Kalshi于10月初推出了包括總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選在內(nèi)的政治相關(guān)賭注。
相比之下,Polymarket在未經(jīng)美國商品期貨交易委員會(huì)許可的情況下推出了政治預(yù)測(cè)市場(chǎng),從而觸犯了該委員會(huì)的相關(guān)規(guī)定,于2022年初被處以140萬美元的罰款,并被迫將平臺(tái)遷往美國境外。事實(shí)證明,缺乏監(jiān)管受到了用戶歡迎,而且用戶因原生加密貨幣設(shè)計(jì)而涌向該平臺(tái)——Polymarket與客戶的加密貨幣錢包相連,并用USDC結(jié)算賭注。區(qū)塊鏈設(shè)計(jì)也使該平臺(tái)受到審查,包括在Polymarket證實(shí)押注特朗普勝選的四個(gè)主要賬戶由一名法國交易員控制后,有人指責(zé)該平臺(tái)存在操縱行為。
在10月初接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí),曼蘇爾表示,他最初考慮在區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)上構(gòu)建Kalshi,但出于監(jiān)管方面的考量,最終放棄了這一想法。他說:“如若想吸引機(jī)構(gòu)參與,我們并沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)可行的商業(yè)模式?!辈贿^,他認(rèn)為,對(duì)于用戶而言,使用USDC存款將比依賴自動(dòng)清算中心(ACH)和銀行轉(zhuǎn)賬更快捷,同時(shí)也意味著費(fèi)用更低。
Kalshi正在與加密貨幣公司Zero Hash合作,以支持USDC存款,該公司表示,與銀行轉(zhuǎn)賬可能需要三到四天的時(shí)間相比,用戶將能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)幾乎即時(shí)的全年全天候資金流動(dòng)。Zero Hash負(fù)責(zé)管理這項(xiàng)新功能的轉(zhuǎn)換和合規(guī)性。
雖然Kalshi在交易量上仍落后于Polymarket,但曼蘇爾表示,其受監(jiān)管的特性將更受用戶歡迎,尤其是在Polymarket被禁止向美國交易者開放的情況下。Kalshi得到了包括風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資巨頭紅杉資本(Sequoia)在內(nèi)的投資機(jī)構(gòu)的支持,而Polymarket則得到了Founders Fund的支持,該基金的合伙人之一是彼得·蒂爾(Peter Thiel)。Robinhood周一也向部分美國客戶推出了政治賭博市場(chǎng)。
隨著選舉日的日益臨近,與哈里斯相比,特朗普在Kalshi客戶中的支持率已遙遙領(lǐng)先,從10月10日的幾乎平局上升至截至稿時(shí)62%的勝選幾率。傳統(tǒng)民意調(diào)查機(jī)構(gòu)仍預(yù)測(cè)此次大選結(jié)果像拋硬幣一樣勝負(fù)難料。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
As traders pour hundreds of millions of dollars into presidential betting markets, the leading U.S. prediction platform Kalshi is launching crypto deposits—where users can fund their bets in the form of the stablecoin USDC rather than cash—in a bid to compete with its top rival, the offshore company Polymarket.
Starting today, Kalshi users will be able to load their accounts with USDC, a popular cryptocurrency pegged to the U.S. dollar. This move will allow Kalshi customers to move money faster and cheaper and help Kalshi challenge Polymarket’s crypto-powered platform, which has exploded in popularity during the 2024 election cycle.
Betting race
Political prediction platforms, which allow users to gamble on the outcomes of electoral contests, have existed for decades, but have come into the spotlight in the 2024 election, largely owing to Polymarket. The site, which recently hired polling guru Nate Silver as an advisor, has attracted heavy trading—and media coverage—related to its presidential betting market. According to Polymarket’s website, users have traded $2.6 billion worth of volume on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be elected, while Kalshi says it has brought in just under $85 million in bets on the presidential race.
Part of the trading discrepancy is the result of Kalshi’s market being much newer. Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi first won approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch nonpolitical betting markets in 2020 on contracts like the weather before suing the agency last year to launch political contracts as well. After winning its lawsuit at the district court level in early September, Kalshi launched politics-related bets in early October, including for the presidential race.
In contrast, Polymarket ran afoul of the CFTC by launching political prediction markets without the agency’s permission, earning a $1.4 million penalty in early 2022 and forcing the platform to move outside the U.S. Its lack of regulation has proved popular with users, who have also flocked to the platform because of its crypto-native design—Polymarket connects with customers’ crypto wallets and settles bets with USDC. Its blockchain design has also opened the platform up to scrutiny, including accusations of manipulation after Polymarket confirmed that four of the leading accounts betting on Trump are controlled by a single French trader.
In an interview with Fortune earlier in October, Mansour said that he originally explored building Kalshi on top of blockchain technology, but ultimately decided against it for regulatory reasons. “We didn’t really see a viable business that way for us if you want to attract institutional participation,” he said. He argued that USDC deposits, however, would be faster for users than relying on ACH (Automated Clearing House) and bank transfers, and would also mean lower fees.
Kalshi is working with the crypto firm Zero Hash to enable USDC deposits, which the company says will enable near-instant 24/7/365 funding, as opposed to bank transfers, which can take three to four days. Zero Hash is managing the conversion and compliance aspects of the new feature.
While Kalshi still lags behind Polymarket in trading volume, Mansour said that its regulated approach will prove more popular among users, especially with Polymarket cut off to U.S. traders. Kalshi is backed by investors including the VC giant Sequoia, while Polymarket is backed by Founders Fund, which counts Peter Thiel as a partner. Robinhood also launched political gambling markets to select U.S. customers on Monday.
With Election Day fast approaching, Trump has separated from Harris to a commanding lead among Kalshi customers, rising from a near deadlock on Oct. 10 to a 62% chance of winning as of publication. Traditional pollsters are still forecasting the election as a coin flip.